Saturday, October 22, 2005

Much Cooler Temperatures Sunday

From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...

We had spectacular weather again today with seasonable temperatures and mostly sunny skies. It will likely be much cooler tomorrow with mostly cloudy skies. This is due to a cold front which is expected to arrive during the morning hours on Sunday. Highs should only be in the upper 50s. There is a slight chance of some isolated showers. Breezy conditions are expected too with winds from the north-northeast at 15 to 25 mph. Sunday night may be the coolest night of the season so far with lows in the upper 30s.

Mostly sunny skies should return by Monday, but highs will only rebound to the low 60s. The below average temperatures are expected to hang around until at least Thursday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Some of the computer models are indicating that a disturbance may move into the area on Thursday and give us a chance of rain. I'm not totally buying into this scenario just yet, so for now I will keep us dry. This could change though as more model runs come in over the next few days.

Weather history was made today as Tropical Storm Alpha formed in the Carribean Sea south of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. This is the 22nd named storm of the season, which breaks the record of 21 set in 1933. With the formation of this storm, we have to use the Greek alphabet for the first time ever since all of the names on the 2005 list have already been used. The 10 p.m. CDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center states that Alpha has 50 mph winds and is moving northwest at 14 mph. It is projected to make landfall in the Dominican Republic by tomorrow morning and then move into the Bahamas by tomorrow night.

Hurricane Wilma continues to move slowly over the Yucatan Pennisula. It is projected to move towards Florida beginning tomorrow. Here is the 10 p.m. CDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center:
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBA PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.
AT 11 PM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO TITUSVILLE.
HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 85 KM NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 375 MILES... 605 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER AWAY FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WILMA COULD AGAIN BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AS WILMA MOVES AWAY.
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 50 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THESE SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

We'll continue to keep you updated on the latest with Hurricane Wilma and Tropical Storm Alpha.

Have a super Sunday!

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