Tuesday Afternoon Discussion

From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...

After the sun finally poked through the coulds early this afternoon, temperatures warmed into the lower 80s in a hurry. Winds are beginning to increase across the area as well. These winds, generally out of the South, are going to usher in more moisture, and keep humidity levels a little high. The moisture could be enough to for an isolated shower or thunderstorm as well.

For the rest of tonight expect partly cloudy skies and mild and breezy conditions. Overnight lows will only fall into the middle to lower 60s area wide.

Wednesday will be a warm, windy and humid day. We could see an isolated shower or thunderstorm as well, as a dryline tries to set up to our West. We've talked about the "cap" before, and the cap should keep thunderstorms from forming. Basically, the cap is a warm layer of air in the middle layers of the atmosphere that prevents lifting to form thunderstorms. As a warm, moist pocket of air rises because it is warmer than its surrounding environment, it will get to this "cap", or warmer air, and will no longer rise because the pocket is not warmer than the cap. Now, by tomorrow night as we cool down, that cap will not be as strong, so we could see an isolted storm, but I'm not too excited about the chances.

Thursday we will see another warm and windy afternoon. This time though, the dryline will get a little help from an upper level system approaching the plains. The dryline could bring enough lift to overcome the cap and once again we could see a couple of isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Highs will range from the middle 80s to the upper 80s.

By Friday the upper level system will have passed and we will have drier air in place and rain chances will be gone for a while. Behind the system, cooler air will filter in as well. Highs Friday will make it into the upper 70s to near 80. The cooler air will continue working in and lows Friday night will cool into the middle 40s.

Saturday and Sunday look pleasant with highs in the middle to upper 70s.

By next week, the dryline looks to set up once again, and once again we could see isolated showers and thunderstorms. Highs look to be in the lower to middle 80s Monday and Tuesday.