Thunderstorms Possible Tonight through Thursday

From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...

We got awfully close to getting some rain across some areas of the Big Country this morning but most areas were just too dry at the surface. We always reference the dew point during newscast because it is one of the best measurements of moisture at the surface. The dew point is the temperature the atmosphere would have to cool to at the surface for the atmosphere to become saturated. Saturation simply means the atmosphere is full, and cannot hold any more water vapor.

This morning in Brownwood the air temperature was 57 F at 5a.m. with a dewpoint of 39 F. Notice the seperation between the two numbers. That is indicative of a dry surface. This afternoon, at 4p.m., the air temperature was 64 F, with a dewpoint of 57 F. With the gap between the two numbers narrowed, we can conclude that there is a lot more water vapor in the air. In the environment this morning, when rain was trying to fall, it would evaporate in the very dry air at the surface. Tonight, evaporation will not be a problem to hinder rain chances.

This evening and tonight we are watching an upper level disturbance works its way Northwest out of Mexico. This disturbance, or faster moving air, was creating the lift for numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon South and West of Midland. As this disturbance nears, combined with the old frontal boundry we've been talking about the last two days, I expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop across the Big Country. There is a slim chance that a few storms could reach severe limits, but I think the best chance for severe weather will be Wednesday.

Speaking of Wednesday... With the old boundry that I mentioned above, combined with a dryline developing West of here, we are set up for a chance at strong thunderstorms beginning in the afternoon. Afternoon highs will climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s, adding to the instability. Winds will be breezy as well, running 15 to 20 miles per hour out of the South.

Wednesday night, the low level jet stream (a fast moving current of moist air) will pump in moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico and this will keep storms active into the evening and overnight hours. Again, the threat for severe storms will remain possible, with the best chance being for large hail and damaging winds.

Rain chances will continue until Thursday morning. By Thursday afternoon I expect clouds to begin to clear and the area to warm into the lower 80s areawide.

Friday, expect mostly sunny skies and highs at or above 80.

Saturday through the rest of the extended forecast.... Expect partly cloudy skies, with a slight chance of thunderstorms each afternoon. Saturday and Sunday we will watch another upper level system pass to our North. Monday and Tuesday there is a chance the dryline could be active and bring us showers and thunderstorms.

All in all, an active weather pattern is setting up, which is great news for rainfall chances, but some storms could be strong, so stay tuned to KRBC for the latest weather forecasts.