Monday Afternoon Discussion

From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...

Today was cloudy and overcast, almost looking like it could rain at any time. The good news is, rain chances are in the forecast for the next few days.

Starting tonight we could see a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. A cold front has stalled out just South of our area and will act as a lift mechanism for moisture coming in out of the Gulf of Mexico. What happens is, a strong Southeast flow develops at the surface from the Gulf Coast, then, this moist flow runs into the stationary front. That front, containing cooler air, then makes the warmer, moister air lift. When this flow gets set up, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. This setup will continue through tomorrow.

Then by Wednesday, an upper level system will approach from the West. Now, the moisture flow from the Gulf will still be around, but the front will have "washed out" or dissipated. This time, we will see lifting mechanisms in the form of disturbances, or faster moving area above the surface, create the lift for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night.

By Thursday, another forcing mechanism, this one we are all too familiar with, the dryline, will move in from the West as an upper level system passes to our North. Behind the dry line will be a weak Pacific cold front that I do not expect to bring much in the way of cool air. The combination of the dryline and frontal system should bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the area Thursday.

I do not expect to see too impressive of rain fall totals, but isolated areas could see up to an inch or more of rainfall, depending upon where the showers and storms form. The best chance for heavy rainfall will be in the Eastern and Southeastern portions of the viewing area.

Friday should be very sunny and warm, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. By Saturday, moisture returns to the area. Sunday, we could see another round of showers and thunderstorms.