Question From Matthew

Matthew asks: "What's your opinion on the possible precip. that the models are hinting at towards the middle of the month? Could there be a winter wx. event if the major cool-down combines with the precip.?"

Matthew,

GREAT question. If there is one major problem with extended computer models, it's that the longer the run, or the farther out the forecast, the less accuracy. When you start looking at models past the first few days, one of the things a forecaster has to do is start looking for trends, as opposed to exact details. For example, the GFSX, which is one of the models I use on a daily basis puts out a product that gives exact forecast numbers called a MOS product. (MOS = Model Output Statistics) When using the GFSX MOS product after day 4 or 5, the model starts using the climatological averages as part of the equation. So, you have to take that into account when forecasting. The same goes with looking at extended models for precipitation. Too many different factors can come into play between now and then that could change. Do I believe there is a chance of precipitation? Certainly, we won't stay dry forever.

As far as winter weather, I have noticed that a decent amount of cold air is beginning to build between Alaska and the Arctic. Generally, when you see that much cold air building, one can believe that it has to move eventually. Judging from the upper air pattern across the Pacific and North America, it seems like the pattern we are in now could break down in a couple of weeks. IF that pattern breaks down, IF that cold air makes a move South and IF the precipitation you mentioned pans out, sure, we could see a winter weather event.

IF you ask me, there's a few too many IF's there to get excited this soon.

I hope that answers your question Matthew. If you would like to, please e-mail where you saw the model information about the precipitation and I can go into detail about the particular model and it's biases.

We love to answer questions here, if there is anything anyone else would like to ask, please post a comment on the board or e-mail me at ccarnesi@krbc.tv and I'll answer as soon as I can.