From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
Clouds are on in the increase tonight across the area as an upper level disturbance approaches the Big Country. Unfortunately, we are just too dry at the surface for rain chances. (For more on these "disturbances", visit a previous blog entry from Jan. 27th where I went into detail about what exactly they are.) There is a chance that a drop or two could make it to the ground overnight, but I expect that only virga will occur. (Virga- Precipitation that evaporates before it reaches the ground.)
Over the next 5 to 10 days we are going to begin to see the upper level pattern shift a bit across the country. It looks like a decent amount of cold, arctic air might finally make a push down into the Southeastern U.S. Now, this by no means suggests that a wet pattern could begin, it just means things may get shaken up a bit. The good news is, any change to the warm and dry pattern is a welcome change. The bad news is, for now, we look to remain dry for the next 5 to 10 days.
Once we get some colder air established in the country, and the polar jet starts moving farther South, we could be looking at a more typical winter like pattern across the Southern U.S. which in turn could bring us at least some rain chances.
In the meantime, a cold front will arrive tomorrow morning, but temperatures will still climb into the upper 60s. Thursday we will once again warm back into the lower 70s ahead of another, strong cold front due in Thursday into Friday. This front will likely bring us at least a light freeze both Saturday and Sunday morning.
Tuesday, January 31, 2006
Tuesday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off with a wide range of temperatures across the Big Country this morning. Brownwood and Snyder dropped down into the upper 20s to low 30s due to calm to light winds. Abilene and Sweetwater only managed to make it down to the upper 30s to low 40s. The reason for the warmer temperatures in these locations was the breezy conditions. The wind kept the air mixed and didn't allow for as much cooling as other spots.
By this afternoon, everyone will be warm. Highs are expected in the low to mid 70s. Windy conditions will return with winds from the south at 15 to 25 mph. Low relative humidity values are likely today, so therefore just about every county in the viewing area is under a Red Flag Warning. The exceptions are Stonewall, Scurry, and Mitchell counties. We all need to be careful today with the elevated fire danger.
A cold front is expeted overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. It doesn't look like we will see any rain from it. Temperatures will cool down a little bit, but still be a above average for this time of year. Highs tomorrow should be in the mid to upper 60s.
Warm conditions return for Thursday before we cool down behind yet another cold front on Friday. This front looks to be a little stronger and therefore we will hold on to the cooler temperatures for more than one day. Unfortunately, this front looks to be dry too. Temperatures for the second half of the work week and the beginning of the weekend should be mainly above average for this time of year.
Have a terrific Tuesday!
We started off with a wide range of temperatures across the Big Country this morning. Brownwood and Snyder dropped down into the upper 20s to low 30s due to calm to light winds. Abilene and Sweetwater only managed to make it down to the upper 30s to low 40s. The reason for the warmer temperatures in these locations was the breezy conditions. The wind kept the air mixed and didn't allow for as much cooling as other spots.
By this afternoon, everyone will be warm. Highs are expected in the low to mid 70s. Windy conditions will return with winds from the south at 15 to 25 mph. Low relative humidity values are likely today, so therefore just about every county in the viewing area is under a Red Flag Warning. The exceptions are Stonewall, Scurry, and Mitchell counties. We all need to be careful today with the elevated fire danger.
A cold front is expeted overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. It doesn't look like we will see any rain from it. Temperatures will cool down a little bit, but still be a above average for this time of year. Highs tomorrow should be in the mid to upper 60s.
Warm conditions return for Thursday before we cool down behind yet another cold front on Friday. This front looks to be a little stronger and therefore we will hold on to the cooler temperatures for more than one day. Unfortunately, this front looks to be dry too. Temperatures for the second half of the work week and the beginning of the weekend should be mainly above average for this time of year.
Have a terrific Tuesday!
Monday, January 30, 2006
Monday Afternoon Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
A very pleasant start to the work-week across the Big Country today with high temperatures climbing into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Unfortunately, still no rain, and it looks like that could last for a while now.
We're getting back into an upper level pattern which will keep storm systems too far North of our area to allow for rain chances, but far enough South to allow for winds to pick up in between systems.
Right now it does not appear likely for rain chances through the next 5 to 7 days.
Fire Weather Watches are in effect across the Big Country through the day Tuesday with winds forecasted to run anywhere between 15 and 25 miles per hour.
We will see another cold front approach Thursday, which will once again increase fire danger across the area during the day.
A very pleasant start to the work-week across the Big Country today with high temperatures climbing into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Unfortunately, still no rain, and it looks like that could last for a while now.
We're getting back into an upper level pattern which will keep storm systems too far North of our area to allow for rain chances, but far enough South to allow for winds to pick up in between systems.
Right now it does not appear likely for rain chances through the next 5 to 7 days.
Fire Weather Watches are in effect across the Big Country through the day Tuesday with winds forecasted to run anywhere between 15 and 25 miles per hour.
We will see another cold front approach Thursday, which will once again increase fire danger across the area during the day.
Monday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off chilly this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 30s. After warm and windy conditions yesterday, it looks like we will get a break today. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s with winds from the north-northeast at 5 to 10 mph. Tonight should be chilly, but not as cold as this morning with lows in the mid to upper 30s.
Warm and windy conditions should return tomorrow. Highs will likely return be in the low to mid 70s. Winds will be from the south-southwest at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts. The fire danger will probably once again be elevated for Tuesday. A Fire Weather Watch is already in place for Knox, Stephens, Eastland, and Comanche counties for tomorrow afternoon. Even though we received some rain this past Friday night and Saturday morning, it isn't nearly enought for what is needed. We should continue to be careful and follow all the necessary precautions in order to prevent fires.
The roller coaster ride of temperatures will likely continue through the end of the work week. Cold fronts are expected to move through the area on Wednesday and Friday. Unfortunately, no rain is expected with either. Even though we will cool down behind these fronts, temperatures look to remain above average for this time of year through at least the end of the work week.
Have a magnificent Monday!
We started off chilly this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 30s. After warm and windy conditions yesterday, it looks like we will get a break today. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s with winds from the north-northeast at 5 to 10 mph. Tonight should be chilly, but not as cold as this morning with lows in the mid to upper 30s.
Warm and windy conditions should return tomorrow. Highs will likely return be in the low to mid 70s. Winds will be from the south-southwest at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts. The fire danger will probably once again be elevated for Tuesday. A Fire Weather Watch is already in place for Knox, Stephens, Eastland, and Comanche counties for tomorrow afternoon. Even though we received some rain this past Friday night and Saturday morning, it isn't nearly enought for what is needed. We should continue to be careful and follow all the necessary precautions in order to prevent fires.
The roller coaster ride of temperatures will likely continue through the end of the work week. Cold fronts are expected to move through the area on Wednesday and Friday. Unfortunately, no rain is expected with either. Even though we will cool down behind these fronts, temperatures look to remain above average for this time of year through at least the end of the work week.
Have a magnificent Monday!
Saturday, January 28, 2006
Mild and Windy Conditions Continue
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We had a mild and windy day across the Big Country with highs in the low 60s to low 70s. Winds were sustained at 25 to 30 mph with gusts as high as 44 mph. The winds should calm down a little tonight but still remain a bit on the breezy side. With mostly clear skies expected, lows should reach the upper 30s to low 40s.
Tomorrow will be very similar to today. Skies should be mostly sunny with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Windy conditions will likely continue with winds from the west-northwest at 15 to 25 mph. Unlike today though where most of the area was under a Red Flag Warning or Wind Advisory, only Scurry and Mitchell counties are under a Red Flag Warning at this time for tomorrow afternoon.
Monday looks to be nice with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid 60s. Winds should be much lighter for the start of the new work and school week.
It looks like the pattern for this upcoming week will be different from this past one. We probably won't have as much moisture working into the area. The subtropical jet which helped with bringing moisture into the area likely won't be around for us this week. So, unfortunately, above average temperatures and dry conditions are expected for now.
Have a super Saturday evening and Sunday!
We had a mild and windy day across the Big Country with highs in the low 60s to low 70s. Winds were sustained at 25 to 30 mph with gusts as high as 44 mph. The winds should calm down a little tonight but still remain a bit on the breezy side. With mostly clear skies expected, lows should reach the upper 30s to low 40s.
Tomorrow will be very similar to today. Skies should be mostly sunny with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Windy conditions will likely continue with winds from the west-northwest at 15 to 25 mph. Unlike today though where most of the area was under a Red Flag Warning or Wind Advisory, only Scurry and Mitchell counties are under a Red Flag Warning at this time for tomorrow afternoon.
Monday looks to be nice with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid 60s. Winds should be much lighter for the start of the new work and school week.
It looks like the pattern for this upcoming week will be different from this past one. We probably won't have as much moisture working into the area. The subtropical jet which helped with bringing moisture into the area likely won't be around for us this week. So, unfortunately, above average temperatures and dry conditions are expected for now.
Have a super Saturday evening and Sunday!
Saturday, 2:00 p.m. Update
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
The winds have really picked up across the Big Country today in response to a tighening pressure gradient. This is all ahead of a cold front I expect to shift winds around to the Northwest Sunday. The only problem is, there isn' much cold air to tap into, so temperatures will still climb to near 70 Sunday.
Rainfall totals were not all that impressive unfortunately. Although some areas fared better than others. As the second disturbanced moved through the Big Country overnight Friday into Saturday, moderate to heavy rain fell across the Eastern Big Country. We'll talk more about rainfall totals tomorrow or Monday.
If you have a rain gauge and would like to share your rainfall totals, please either comment here on the board, or e-mail me at ccarnesi@krbc.tv, and I will share your anonymous total with all of our readers. I will only share your total and town, not your name, I promise!
With the strong winds this afternoon, the National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning for most of the Big Country. This is the statement from the National Weather Service in San Angelo:
The winds have really picked up across the Big Country today in response to a tighening pressure gradient. This is all ahead of a cold front I expect to shift winds around to the Northwest Sunday. The only problem is, there isn' much cold air to tap into, so temperatures will still climb to near 70 Sunday.
Rainfall totals were not all that impressive unfortunately. Although some areas fared better than others. As the second disturbanced moved through the Big Country overnight Friday into Saturday, moderate to heavy rain fell across the Eastern Big Country. We'll talk more about rainfall totals tomorrow or Monday.
If you have a rain gauge and would like to share your rainfall totals, please either comment here on the board, or e-mail me at ccarnesi@krbc.tv, and I will share your anonymous total with all of our readers. I will only share your total and town, not your name, I promise!
With the strong winds this afternoon, the National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning for most of the Big Country. This is the statement from the National Weather Service in San Angelo:
421 AM CST SAT JAN 28 2006
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST
THIS AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
EXPECT STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TODAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS TEXAS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAS RECEIVED MEASURABLE RAINFALL DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS...VERY DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 15 TO 18 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
BIG COUNTY AND MOST OF THE CONCHO VALLEY TODAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...GREATER RAINFALL DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS
WILL HOLD RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT TODAY.
THUS...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL NOT BE NECESSARY FOR THOSE
COUNTIES.
A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL
Also, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Tropical Storm Cindy to Hurricane Cindy
from the 2005 season. After a tropical season the hurricane center will publish
reports on each individual storm, and sometimes will upgrade, or downgrade systems.
Below are the updated totals from this past season. The graphic is courtesy of
www.accuweather.com.
Friday, January 27, 2006
4:45pm Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
Showers and even a few isolated thunderstorms continue across the Big Country this evening. I expect these to cotinue into the overnight hours as another upper level distburnce rides over top of us.
We talk about these "disturbances" quite often, but they are really a simple thing to explain. There are many different kinds, but the one in particular affecting us tonight is basically a pocket of faster moving air in the middle to upper levels of the atmosphere. When air moves faster higher up in the atmosphere, air has to replace the air that has moved. So, that air has to come from somewhere, in this case, it lifts from the surface. On the way up, that air carries the water vapor with it. We all know that in most situations the temperature drops with height, eventually this air from the surface reaches a point where the dewpoint is reached. Then, saturation takes place and clouds form. Well, I think you get where I'm going with this, a fast enough "disturbance" creates the lift quick enough to get the whole process enough to where saturation takes place and eventually rain falls.
So, as this disturbance exits past the Big Country tonight into tomorrow, it will leave behind it strong subsidence, or sinking air. That sinking air combined with a Pacific Front bringing in drier air, will leave us warm and very windy.
Fire weather watches are in effect across the area through Saturday. We also look to remain very dry across the Big Country through the extended forecast.
A quick reminder, please join us in helping Habitat For Humanity this weekend as the Habitat Hoopsters take on the Harlem Ambassadors. It is a fun, family oriented night. The Harlam Ambassadors heavily involve the crowd, most specifically the kids. Tickets are just $8 for adults and $6 for children and students. Kids 5 and under are free. All of the proceeds go to the Abilene chapter of Habitat. The game begins at 7:00 p.m. Saturday night at Kimbrell Arena on the campus of McMurry University. Please come out and support a great cause and enjoy the heck out of a Saturday evening while you are at it.
Showers and even a few isolated thunderstorms continue across the Big Country this evening. I expect these to cotinue into the overnight hours as another upper level distburnce rides over top of us.
We talk about these "disturbances" quite often, but they are really a simple thing to explain. There are many different kinds, but the one in particular affecting us tonight is basically a pocket of faster moving air in the middle to upper levels of the atmosphere. When air moves faster higher up in the atmosphere, air has to replace the air that has moved. So, that air has to come from somewhere, in this case, it lifts from the surface. On the way up, that air carries the water vapor with it. We all know that in most situations the temperature drops with height, eventually this air from the surface reaches a point where the dewpoint is reached. Then, saturation takes place and clouds form. Well, I think you get where I'm going with this, a fast enough "disturbance" creates the lift quick enough to get the whole process enough to where saturation takes place and eventually rain falls.
So, as this disturbance exits past the Big Country tonight into tomorrow, it will leave behind it strong subsidence, or sinking air. That sinking air combined with a Pacific Front bringing in drier air, will leave us warm and very windy.
Fire weather watches are in effect across the area through Saturday. We also look to remain very dry across the Big Country through the extended forecast.
A quick reminder, please join us in helping Habitat For Humanity this weekend as the Habitat Hoopsters take on the Harlem Ambassadors. It is a fun, family oriented night. The Harlam Ambassadors heavily involve the crowd, most specifically the kids. Tickets are just $8 for adults and $6 for children and students. Kids 5 and under are free. All of the proceeds go to the Abilene chapter of Habitat. The game begins at 7:00 p.m. Saturday night at Kimbrell Arena on the campus of McMurry University. Please come out and support a great cause and enjoy the heck out of a Saturday evening while you are at it.
Carry Your Umbrella With You Today
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off mild again this morning. Temperatures were mainly in the mid 40s to low 50s. We won't warm up much at all today due to mostly cloudy skies and some rainfall. Highs will likely be in the upper 50s to low 60s. A few light showers are already developing as I write this forecast discussion. The best chance for rain will begin this afternoon as an upper level disturbance is projected to move across the area. Be aware a few isolated thunderstorms are possible today. Breezy conditions are expected too with winds from the south at 10 to 20 mph.
The chance for more rain continues tonight, so be careful if you are going to be out and about this evening. It will be another mild night with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Breezy conditions should continue.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible during the morning hours tomorrow. The eastern portions of the viewing area have the best chance of seeing the rain. A cold front looks to arrive tomorrow afternoon. This will clear our skies and dry us out for the second half of the weekend and early next week.
As far as total rainfall amounts go from this event, it looks like the eastern Big Country will be the big winner. Totals there according to one model could be over an inch. In the central communities, totals could be half an inch to an inch. It looks like the western counties may only see up to a quarter of an inch at best.
Temperatures for Saturday through Tuesday should be above average for this time of year. Highs will likely be in the 60s with lows in the low to mid 30s.
Have a fantastic Friday!
We started off mild again this morning. Temperatures were mainly in the mid 40s to low 50s. We won't warm up much at all today due to mostly cloudy skies and some rainfall. Highs will likely be in the upper 50s to low 60s. A few light showers are already developing as I write this forecast discussion. The best chance for rain will begin this afternoon as an upper level disturbance is projected to move across the area. Be aware a few isolated thunderstorms are possible today. Breezy conditions are expected too with winds from the south at 10 to 20 mph.
The chance for more rain continues tonight, so be careful if you are going to be out and about this evening. It will be another mild night with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Breezy conditions should continue.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible during the morning hours tomorrow. The eastern portions of the viewing area have the best chance of seeing the rain. A cold front looks to arrive tomorrow afternoon. This will clear our skies and dry us out for the second half of the weekend and early next week.
As far as total rainfall amounts go from this event, it looks like the eastern Big Country will be the big winner. Totals there according to one model could be over an inch. In the central communities, totals could be half an inch to an inch. It looks like the western counties may only see up to a quarter of an inch at best.
Temperatures for Saturday through Tuesday should be above average for this time of year. Highs will likely be in the 60s with lows in the low to mid 30s.
Have a fantastic Friday!
Thursday, January 26, 2006
4:45pm Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
First off let me apologize for the lack of an evening discussion yesterday. The website that hosts this blog, blogger.com, was experiencing difficulties all day and evening. I was not able to log in to uplink the update, so I apologize for that.
Now, for some good news, rain chances are looking pretty good for Friday. My only concern is there is a chance for a few isolated thunderstorms as well. My concern being the chance for fire sparked by lightning. If we do see any thunderstorms and you happen to see a fire, please call your local authorities immediately.
As for the rain chances, right now it looks like just about everyone will see some rainfall. Totals still don't look too impressive, but any totals are fine by me right now. I expect some areas may only see a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rain, while there is the potential to see up to an inch as well. It will all just depend on how the showers and storms evolve.
Rain chances will continue into Friday night. By Saturday rain and clouds clear out from West to East. Unfortunately, it looks like they won't return for a while either.
Sunny skies and above average temperatures will rule the rest of the extended forecast.
First off let me apologize for the lack of an evening discussion yesterday. The website that hosts this blog, blogger.com, was experiencing difficulties all day and evening. I was not able to log in to uplink the update, so I apologize for that.
Now, for some good news, rain chances are looking pretty good for Friday. My only concern is there is a chance for a few isolated thunderstorms as well. My concern being the chance for fire sparked by lightning. If we do see any thunderstorms and you happen to see a fire, please call your local authorities immediately.
As for the rain chances, right now it looks like just about everyone will see some rainfall. Totals still don't look too impressive, but any totals are fine by me right now. I expect some areas may only see a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rain, while there is the potential to see up to an inch as well. It will all just depend on how the showers and storms evolve.
Rain chances will continue into Friday night. By Saturday rain and clouds clear out from West to East. Unfortunately, it looks like they won't return for a while either.
Sunny skies and above average temperatures will rule the rest of the extended forecast.
Keep The Rain Gear Close By
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off mild this morning with temperatures mainly in the 40s. An upper level disturbance rolled across the area and brought a little bit of rain. Totals were a tenth of an inch or less. The chance for rain today should come to an end by lunchtime. Mostly cloudy skies will remain and that will keep temperatuers cooler than yesterday. Highs are expected to be in the upper 50s to low 60s. It could be a little breezy at times today with winds from the south at 10 to 20 mph.
A trough, or dip, in the jetstream is still set up to our west. A few upper level disturbances are still projected to roll towards us tomorrow and tomorrow night. As of right now, there is a 40% chance of showers and maybe even a few thunderstorms during the day. Totals could reach a quarter of an inch with some locations possibly seeing more than that. Mostly cloudy skies and breezy condtions should continue. Highs will once again be in the upper 50s to low 60s.
The chance for rain comes to an end early on Saturday. Skies will clear up a little bit which will allow us to warm up. Highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 60s. A cold front arrives late in the day. It doesn't look like we will see any rain from this feature, but instead it will help clear the moisture from the area and cool us down a little.
Sunday and Monday look nice with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 60s.
Have a terrific Thursday!
We started off mild this morning with temperatures mainly in the 40s. An upper level disturbance rolled across the area and brought a little bit of rain. Totals were a tenth of an inch or less. The chance for rain today should come to an end by lunchtime. Mostly cloudy skies will remain and that will keep temperatuers cooler than yesterday. Highs are expected to be in the upper 50s to low 60s. It could be a little breezy at times today with winds from the south at 10 to 20 mph.
A trough, or dip, in the jetstream is still set up to our west. A few upper level disturbances are still projected to roll towards us tomorrow and tomorrow night. As of right now, there is a 40% chance of showers and maybe even a few thunderstorms during the day. Totals could reach a quarter of an inch with some locations possibly seeing more than that. Mostly cloudy skies and breezy condtions should continue. Highs will once again be in the upper 50s to low 60s.
The chance for rain comes to an end early on Saturday. Skies will clear up a little bit which will allow us to warm up. Highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 60s. A cold front arrives late in the day. It doesn't look like we will see any rain from this feature, but instead it will help clear the moisture from the area and cool us down a little.
Sunday and Monday look nice with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 60s.
Have a terrific Thursday!
Wednesday, January 25, 2006
Wednesday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
It was another chilly morning across the Big Country with temperatures falling down into the upper 20s to mid 30s. Temperatures this afternoon should be cooler than yesterday, but still above average for this time of year. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s. The reason for the cooler temperatures is the extra cloud cover that we will see today. Partly cloudy skies are expected in the central and eastern portions of the viewing area. The western communites will likely see mostly cloudy skies and possibly a few isolated showers. An upper level low that was in southern California this morning is the cause of the cloud cover and the chance for rain.
With a trough, or dip, in the jetstream set up over the southwest right now and expected to continue into the early portions of the weekend, we will continue to see a chance for rain. There is a slight chance tomorrow, but more than likely we should be dry with mostly cloudy skies.
The best chance for rain comes on Friday as a surface trough develops and moves over the area. Right now, that chance is 30%. Thunderstorms are possible that day as well.
Any rain we do see should come to an end early on Saturday. A cold front is expected to arrive that afternoon. It won't cool us down that much, but it will clear our skies out and bring rain chances to an end. Temperatures should continue to be above average for this time of year through the end of the week.
Have a wonderful Wednesday!
It was another chilly morning across the Big Country with temperatures falling down into the upper 20s to mid 30s. Temperatures this afternoon should be cooler than yesterday, but still above average for this time of year. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s. The reason for the cooler temperatures is the extra cloud cover that we will see today. Partly cloudy skies are expected in the central and eastern portions of the viewing area. The western communites will likely see mostly cloudy skies and possibly a few isolated showers. An upper level low that was in southern California this morning is the cause of the cloud cover and the chance for rain.
With a trough, or dip, in the jetstream set up over the southwest right now and expected to continue into the early portions of the weekend, we will continue to see a chance for rain. There is a slight chance tomorrow, but more than likely we should be dry with mostly cloudy skies.
The best chance for rain comes on Friday as a surface trough develops and moves over the area. Right now, that chance is 30%. Thunderstorms are possible that day as well.
Any rain we do see should come to an end early on Saturday. A cold front is expected to arrive that afternoon. It won't cool us down that much, but it will clear our skies out and bring rain chances to an end. Temperatures should continue to be above average for this time of year through the end of the week.
Have a wonderful Wednesday!
Tuesday, January 24, 2006
Rain Chance Remain In The Forecast, 4:30p.m. TUE
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
Another pleasant afternoon across the Big Country today. It really is too bad we can't enjoy this weather too much considering how badly we need some gloomy, rainy days. The good news our rain chances have not changed for Friday.
Before then I expect clouds to begin to increase across the area beginning tonight. A weak upper level disturbance will move through the pan handle tomorrow. This disturbance may pass close enough to bring an isolated shower or two to the Western and Northwestern portion of our viewing area. Basically a Snyder to Aspermont to Benjamin line and West.
Thursday we can expet partly cloudy skies without rain chances with highs in the middle to lower 60s.
Thursday night a more impressive, better organized system will approach from the West. This system will create lift ahead of itself and rain chances will begin late Thursday night and early Friday morning.
As the system passes during the day Friday, a decent batch of showers should form and move Southwest to Northeast across the area. There is a slim chance of a few embedded, non-severe thunderstorms with this system. Thunderstorms are the last thing we need right now with the dry conditions, but the chances are better for a mainly light rain event. Rainfall totals will only possible add up to a tenth to a half an inch of rain over most of the area. Just East of the Big Country, as always it seems, there is the chance for better totals.
Saturday this system will drag a Pacific Cold Front through the area bring drier air and an end to any rain chances for a little while. By Sunday expect sunny skies and highs and in upper 50s to lower 60s.
Another pleasant afternoon across the Big Country today. It really is too bad we can't enjoy this weather too much considering how badly we need some gloomy, rainy days. The good news our rain chances have not changed for Friday.
Before then I expect clouds to begin to increase across the area beginning tonight. A weak upper level disturbance will move through the pan handle tomorrow. This disturbance may pass close enough to bring an isolated shower or two to the Western and Northwestern portion of our viewing area. Basically a Snyder to Aspermont to Benjamin line and West.
Thursday we can expet partly cloudy skies without rain chances with highs in the middle to lower 60s.
Thursday night a more impressive, better organized system will approach from the West. This system will create lift ahead of itself and rain chances will begin late Thursday night and early Friday morning.
As the system passes during the day Friday, a decent batch of showers should form and move Southwest to Northeast across the area. There is a slim chance of a few embedded, non-severe thunderstorms with this system. Thunderstorms are the last thing we need right now with the dry conditions, but the chances are better for a mainly light rain event. Rainfall totals will only possible add up to a tenth to a half an inch of rain over most of the area. Just East of the Big Country, as always it seems, there is the chance for better totals.
Saturday this system will drag a Pacific Cold Front through the area bring drier air and an end to any rain chances for a little while. By Sunday expect sunny skies and highs and in upper 50s to lower 60s.
Rain Chances Looking Better
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off a little cold here in the Big Country again this morning. Everyone bottomed out somewhere in the mid 20s to mid 30s. A nice afternoon looks to be on tap for all of us today with highs in the low to mid 60s. Winds should remain light from the south then shift to the northwest later today.
A trough in the jetstream has set up to our west. That trough will influence our weather into early this weekend. An upper level low will move northeast across the Texas panhandle and into Kansas tomorrow and Thursday. There is a slight chance of isolated showers, but only in our western communities. A better chance of rain for the entire viewing area arrives on Friday with an upper level disturbance. For now that chance stands at 30%, but it could increase the closer we get to that time period. A few thunderstorms are possible with this system on Friday. A few lingering showers could last into early Saturday.
Overall, temperatures should be above average for the next five days with highs in the low to mid 60s and lows mainly in the low to mid 40s.
Have a terrific Tuesday!
We started off a little cold here in the Big Country again this morning. Everyone bottomed out somewhere in the mid 20s to mid 30s. A nice afternoon looks to be on tap for all of us today with highs in the low to mid 60s. Winds should remain light from the south then shift to the northwest later today.
A trough in the jetstream has set up to our west. That trough will influence our weather into early this weekend. An upper level low will move northeast across the Texas panhandle and into Kansas tomorrow and Thursday. There is a slight chance of isolated showers, but only in our western communities. A better chance of rain for the entire viewing area arrives on Friday with an upper level disturbance. For now that chance stands at 30%, but it could increase the closer we get to that time period. A few thunderstorms are possible with this system on Friday. A few lingering showers could last into early Saturday.
Overall, temperatures should be above average for the next five days with highs in the low to mid 60s and lows mainly in the low to mid 40s.
Have a terrific Tuesday!
Monday, January 23, 2006
Monday, 4:35 p.m. Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
After finally receiving some much needed rain across parts of the area, we were left with a cool, seasonal Monday. Highs only climbed into the middle to upper 50s. Overnight lows tonight will fall down to just below freezing, so this is a decent chance of frost across the area.
The best news of all, there are more rain chances in the forecast. There will be a slight chance of a few isolated showers across the Northern and Western viewing area Wednesday as a strong upper-level disturbance moves through the plains. If this system's path happens to shift a little farther to the South, the rest of the area could see showers. Right now though, things are looking more and more likely for us to only get mostly cloudy skies out of this system.
Later in the week, by Friday, another system will approach and possibly bring a few thunderstorms to our area. Right now I am only calling for a 30% chance of showers, but as we get a little closer to Friday, I'm hoping to be able to up that percentage.
All in all I am very happy with how our situation for winter is evolving. Right now it looks like we are in a much better pattern to continue to see systems get close enough to West Central Texas to bring us rain chances.
After finally receiving some much needed rain across parts of the area, we were left with a cool, seasonal Monday. Highs only climbed into the middle to upper 50s. Overnight lows tonight will fall down to just below freezing, so this is a decent chance of frost across the area.
The best news of all, there are more rain chances in the forecast. There will be a slight chance of a few isolated showers across the Northern and Western viewing area Wednesday as a strong upper-level disturbance moves through the plains. If this system's path happens to shift a little farther to the South, the rest of the area could see showers. Right now though, things are looking more and more likely for us to only get mostly cloudy skies out of this system.
Later in the week, by Friday, another system will approach and possibly bring a few thunderstorms to our area. Right now I am only calling for a 30% chance of showers, but as we get a little closer to Friday, I'm hoping to be able to up that percentage.
All in all I am very happy with how our situation for winter is evolving. Right now it looks like we are in a much better pattern to continue to see systems get close enough to West Central Texas to bring us rain chances.
Don't Put The Umbrellas Away Just Yet
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off cold this morning with most locations in the low 30s. Skies cleared for the most part overnight, but as of this morning more clouds are moving in from the west-southwest. There should be enough sunshine today to call it partly cloudy instead of the mostly cloudy skies we had yesterday. Highs will be seasonable in the low to mid 50s. Light winds of 5 to 10 mph from the north are expected.
Tomorrow should be nice with mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatuers. Highs in the mid 60s are likely. Winds will continue to be light from the northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Abilene Regional Airport reported 0.26" of rain yesterday. Rainfall totals were less than that to the west of Abilene. Totals in some locations of the eastern Big Country were better than a quater of an inch. It looks like we may be in for some more rain later this week. Computer models have been back and forth on the exact path of an upper level low for Wednesday and Thursday. Last week, models showed it moving over the Big Country or just to the south of us. Now, some are showing it moving to the northeast and going across Kansas. It looks like we have enough moisture in place. The question is whether or not we have anything to lift it. For now, I am going with a slight chance of showers and maybe a thunderstorm for both days.
Another upper level disturbance could move across the area on Friday and into early Saturday. Since this system is still five to six days away, I am only going with a slight chance of rain for now. That could increase the closer we get to that time period, so stay tuned.
Have a magnificent Monday!
We started off cold this morning with most locations in the low 30s. Skies cleared for the most part overnight, but as of this morning more clouds are moving in from the west-southwest. There should be enough sunshine today to call it partly cloudy instead of the mostly cloudy skies we had yesterday. Highs will be seasonable in the low to mid 50s. Light winds of 5 to 10 mph from the north are expected.
Tomorrow should be nice with mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatuers. Highs in the mid 60s are likely. Winds will continue to be light from the northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Abilene Regional Airport reported 0.26" of rain yesterday. Rainfall totals were less than that to the west of Abilene. Totals in some locations of the eastern Big Country were better than a quater of an inch. It looks like we may be in for some more rain later this week. Computer models have been back and forth on the exact path of an upper level low for Wednesday and Thursday. Last week, models showed it moving over the Big Country or just to the south of us. Now, some are showing it moving to the northeast and going across Kansas. It looks like we have enough moisture in place. The question is whether or not we have anything to lift it. For now, I am going with a slight chance of showers and maybe a thunderstorm for both days.
Another upper level disturbance could move across the area on Friday and into early Saturday. Since this system is still five to six days away, I am only going with a slight chance of rain for now. That could increase the closer we get to that time period, so stay tuned.
Have a magnificent Monday!
Sunday, January 22, 2006
Wonderful Rain!
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
Well, it certainly is not a drought breaker, but at least we have finally received rain. Between 6 and 9 a.m. this morning Abilene Regional Airport recorded 0.26" of rain. I received just about 0.20" on the South side of town as well.
The bad news is, our Western communities saw little or no rain. While our Eastern counties received anywhere from a quarter of an inch to just over an inch in isolated areas.
There's been a little confusion over the weekend as to how long we have gone without measurable rainfall in Abilene. The last measurable rainfall before this morning was on December 17th of last year when we received 0.01" of rain. Anything less than 0.01" is defined by the National Weather Service as only a trace and is not measurable. There were reports Saturday that said it had been since October 31, 2005. Now, that was the last time we received more than a tenth of inch of rainfall, which to most is the last significant rainfall total. Since October 31 we have now received 0.37" of rain.
There are chances for rain this week. We'll talk more about those rain chances here on the blog tomorrow.
Well, it certainly is not a drought breaker, but at least we have finally received rain. Between 6 and 9 a.m. this morning Abilene Regional Airport recorded 0.26" of rain. I received just about 0.20" on the South side of town as well.
The bad news is, our Western communities saw little or no rain. While our Eastern counties received anywhere from a quarter of an inch to just over an inch in isolated areas.
There's been a little confusion over the weekend as to how long we have gone without measurable rainfall in Abilene. The last measurable rainfall before this morning was on December 17th of last year when we received 0.01" of rain. Anything less than 0.01" is defined by the National Weather Service as only a trace and is not measurable. There were reports Saturday that said it had been since October 31, 2005. Now, that was the last time we received more than a tenth of inch of rainfall, which to most is the last significant rainfall total. Since October 31 we have now received 0.37" of rain.
There are chances for rain this week. We'll talk more about those rain chances here on the blog tomorrow.
Friday, January 20, 2006
Rain, Rain Come This Way! 4:45 p.m. Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
After our cold front arrived earlier today temperatures held steady in the lower 60s leaving us with a very pleasant end to the work-week. Now, we focus our attention to the weekend and our upcoming rain chances.
We've said this before, but the closer we get to a possible rain even, the more confidence we have in our forecast. The good news is, the closer we get to Sunday, the better the rain chances look. Now, I think we will see scattered showers across the area Sunday, but totals will not be all that impressive. I'm still convinced we will only see anywhere from a tenth of an inch to a quarter of an inch of rain. The good news with all of this is, I believe we really are in the midst of a pattern change.
Looking at some of the longer-range models this afternoon it looks like we will have another upper level system push through the Big Country Wednesday and Thursday of next week. With that system we could see another batch of showers.
After that, it looks like another system could affect us by next weekend.
So, again, this is not a drought ender, nor is this the end of fire danger across the area, but it could be the beginning.
After our cold front arrived earlier today temperatures held steady in the lower 60s leaving us with a very pleasant end to the work-week. Now, we focus our attention to the weekend and our upcoming rain chances.
We've said this before, but the closer we get to a possible rain even, the more confidence we have in our forecast. The good news is, the closer we get to Sunday, the better the rain chances look. Now, I think we will see scattered showers across the area Sunday, but totals will not be all that impressive. I'm still convinced we will only see anywhere from a tenth of an inch to a quarter of an inch of rain. The good news with all of this is, I believe we really are in the midst of a pattern change.
Looking at some of the longer-range models this afternoon it looks like we will have another upper level system push through the Big Country Wednesday and Thursday of next week. With that system we could see another batch of showers.
After that, it looks like another system could affect us by next weekend.
So, again, this is not a drought ender, nor is this the end of fire danger across the area, but it could be the beginning.
Chance of Rain This Weekend
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
It was another mild start to the day with temperatures mainly in the low 40s to mid 50s across the area. A cold front is currently moving towards the Big Country and should arrive here by the early afternoon hours. This will cause a difference in highs across the area. Northern communities in the viewing area will reach the low 60s, while the southern communities should reach the upper 60s. Breezy conditions look to remain with winds beginning from the south then shifting to the northwest behind the front at 10 to 20 mph. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of the area until 6 p.m. tonight. We need to be careful again today with the elevated fire danger.
The cooling trend continues tomorrow and lasts into early next week with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. The good news is that the chance for rain this weekend is looking better. The jet stream is expected to dip into our region by Sunday. An upper level disturbance will likely move through during this time period causing some showers and maybe even a thunderstorm. Right now the chance for rain is 20% for Saturday night and 40% for Sunday. The best chance for precipitation will be in east Texas. Here in the Big Country, amounts look to be about a quarter of an inch at best. It won't break out drought-like conditions, but it's more than what we have seen lately.
Looking into the middle of next week, a couple of models are indicating we could see some more rain. An upper level low could develop and move across our area on Wednesday. I am not completely sold on this scenario as of yet. Most of the time these lows end up moving far enough to our north to keep us out of most, if not all, of the rain. We'll continue to keep our eye on this and let you know as we get closer to that time period.
Have a fantastic Friday!
It was another mild start to the day with temperatures mainly in the low 40s to mid 50s across the area. A cold front is currently moving towards the Big Country and should arrive here by the early afternoon hours. This will cause a difference in highs across the area. Northern communities in the viewing area will reach the low 60s, while the southern communities should reach the upper 60s. Breezy conditions look to remain with winds beginning from the south then shifting to the northwest behind the front at 10 to 20 mph. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of the area until 6 p.m. tonight. We need to be careful again today with the elevated fire danger.
The cooling trend continues tomorrow and lasts into early next week with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. The good news is that the chance for rain this weekend is looking better. The jet stream is expected to dip into our region by Sunday. An upper level disturbance will likely move through during this time period causing some showers and maybe even a thunderstorm. Right now the chance for rain is 20% for Saturday night and 40% for Sunday. The best chance for precipitation will be in east Texas. Here in the Big Country, amounts look to be about a quarter of an inch at best. It won't break out drought-like conditions, but it's more than what we have seen lately.
Looking into the middle of next week, a couple of models are indicating we could see some more rain. An upper level low could develop and move across our area on Wednesday. I am not completely sold on this scenario as of yet. Most of the time these lows end up moving far enough to our north to keep us out of most, if not all, of the rain. We'll continue to keep our eye on this and let you know as we get closer to that time period.
Have a fantastic Friday!
Thursday, January 19, 2006
Cooler Weather Is On The Way - 4:45p.m. THU
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
It looks like we may finally be seeing the beginnings of a pattern change across the Nation. I stress LOOKS like.
Some of the model guidance we use on a daily basis is hinting at the chance of a more winter like pattern across the Western and Central United States soon. I mentioned this a couple of days ago and things still look good. Now, this doesn't mean we will get a lot of moisture, just more seasonal weather. The good thing is, if we can get the cold air established, then there is at least a better chance at getting more precipitation. Just looking at some guidance right now, February could end up much cooler than January. We'll just have to wait and see.
As for tonight, mild and breezy conditions will rule the area with Southwest winds coming around to the West and running 10 to 20 miles per hour. Lows will range from the middle 40s to near 50 degrees.
A cold front will plow through the Big Country early in the day Friday, bringing breezy winds out of the Northwest and cooler highs. This cold front is the first part of setting the stage for rain showers Sunday into Monday.
Right now I am forecasting a 30 to 40 percent chance of showers beginning Sunday and ending early in the day Monday. The problem for us will be moistening up the surface. With the dry air in place, Mother Nature will have to saturate the air from the top down. So, I expect we will start Sunday off with a good deal of virga, (rain evaporating before it reaches the ground) and then eventually turning into showers.
I'm also not too excited about rainfall totals. I think the most rain some could see might be around a quarter of an inch. But, we will definately take it.
It looks like we may finally be seeing the beginnings of a pattern change across the Nation. I stress LOOKS like.
Some of the model guidance we use on a daily basis is hinting at the chance of a more winter like pattern across the Western and Central United States soon. I mentioned this a couple of days ago and things still look good. Now, this doesn't mean we will get a lot of moisture, just more seasonal weather. The good thing is, if we can get the cold air established, then there is at least a better chance at getting more precipitation. Just looking at some guidance right now, February could end up much cooler than January. We'll just have to wait and see.
As for tonight, mild and breezy conditions will rule the area with Southwest winds coming around to the West and running 10 to 20 miles per hour. Lows will range from the middle 40s to near 50 degrees.
A cold front will plow through the Big Country early in the day Friday, bringing breezy winds out of the Northwest and cooler highs. This cold front is the first part of setting the stage for rain showers Sunday into Monday.
Right now I am forecasting a 30 to 40 percent chance of showers beginning Sunday and ending early in the day Monday. The problem for us will be moistening up the surface. With the dry air in place, Mother Nature will have to saturate the air from the top down. So, I expect we will start Sunday off with a good deal of virga, (rain evaporating before it reaches the ground) and then eventually turning into showers.
I'm also not too excited about rainfall totals. I think the most rain some could see might be around a quarter of an inch. But, we will definately take it.
Thursday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off mild this morning with temperatures mainly in the low 40s to low 50s across the area. Everyone will be warm this afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. In case you wondering, the record high for today at Abilene Regional Airport is 87 set back in 2000. Windy conditions will continue today, but not quite as strong as yesterday. Winds are expected from the southwest at 15 to 25 mph early, but then drop to maybe 10 to 20 mph this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of the area. Please continue to be careful and follow all the necessary precautions to help prevent fires.
A cold front should move through on Friday. Highs will likely only reach the mid 60s. No rain is expected, but we will probably see more cloud cover.
The cooling trend continues into the weekend and early next week. It looks like temperatures will be at or below average during that time period. The really good news is that the chance for rain has increased from slight to about 30% on Sunday and 20% on Monday. It doesn't look like we will see a lot of rain, but it's more than we have had lately. We'll continue to keep you updated on this possibility for rain.
Have a terrific Thursday!
We started off mild this morning with temperatures mainly in the low 40s to low 50s across the area. Everyone will be warm this afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. In case you wondering, the record high for today at Abilene Regional Airport is 87 set back in 2000. Windy conditions will continue today, but not quite as strong as yesterday. Winds are expected from the southwest at 15 to 25 mph early, but then drop to maybe 10 to 20 mph this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of the area. Please continue to be careful and follow all the necessary precautions to help prevent fires.
A cold front should move through on Friday. Highs will likely only reach the mid 60s. No rain is expected, but we will probably see more cloud cover.
The cooling trend continues into the weekend and early next week. It looks like temperatures will be at or below average during that time period. The really good news is that the chance for rain has increased from slight to about 30% on Sunday and 20% on Monday. It doesn't look like we will see a lot of rain, but it's more than we have had lately. We'll continue to keep you updated on this possibility for rain.
Have a terrific Thursday!
Wednesday, January 18, 2006
Pattern Change is Coming!
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
If we could just slow these winds down we would be enjoying some of the most beautiful weather across the Big Country. Unfortunately as these winds continue to blow the fire danger will hang around as well.
Red Flag Warnings across all of the Big Country today with a few continuing through the day Thursday as winds are forecasted to remain in the 15 to 20 mile per hour range until Thursday evening.
Early in the day Friday a cold front will move through the Big Country bringing gusty winds out of the Northwest.
Then we need to all start crossing our fingers and doing whatever we can to "will" the rain our direction. Moisture will begin to return to West Central Texas in the mid-levels of the atmosphere in the form of cloud cover Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday afternoon and evening rain chances will return to West Texas in the form of showers through the day Monday. Right now it does not look like we will see enough rain to break out drought, but we could see enough to ease up our fire dangers for a short time.
A couple of computer models are trying to keep rain chances around through the early part of next week. Right now though my thoughts are that any rain chances we see will likely end by Monday afternoon.
If we could just slow these winds down we would be enjoying some of the most beautiful weather across the Big Country. Unfortunately as these winds continue to blow the fire danger will hang around as well.
Red Flag Warnings across all of the Big Country today with a few continuing through the day Thursday as winds are forecasted to remain in the 15 to 20 mile per hour range until Thursday evening.
Early in the day Friday a cold front will move through the Big Country bringing gusty winds out of the Northwest.
Then we need to all start crossing our fingers and doing whatever we can to "will" the rain our direction. Moisture will begin to return to West Central Texas in the mid-levels of the atmosphere in the form of cloud cover Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday afternoon and evening rain chances will return to West Texas in the form of showers through the day Monday. Right now it does not look like we will see enough rain to break out drought, but we could see enough to ease up our fire dangers for a short time.
A couple of computer models are trying to keep rain chances around through the early part of next week. Right now though my thoughts are that any rain chances we see will likely end by Monday afternoon.
Wednesday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
It was another chilly start to the day across the Big Country. A few locations did drop below freezing. The temperature in Snyder fell to 28. In Brownwood, the temperature dropped all the way down to 19 because of calm winds early this morning. Everyone will be warm by this afternoon with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Windy conditions are expected due to a surface trough moving into the area. Winds will be from the southwest at 15 to 25 mph. With low relative humidity values likely as well, there is a Red Flag Warning in effect for the entire viewing area. We all need to continue to be very careful and follow the necessary precautions to prevent fires.
Tomorrow looks to be warm and breezy. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s with winds from the southwest at 10 to 20 mph. A Fire Weather Watch is already in effect for most of the Big Country for Thursday.
A cooling trend begins on Friday with the arrival of a cold front. Highs will be in the mid to upper 60s. No rain is expected with the front.
Temperatures this weekend should be at or slightly below average for this time of year. So, finally it looks like we might see some winter-like temperatures. We could also see some rain on Sunday. An upper level disturbance may be moving across the area. For now, I'm only going with a slight chance, but hopefully that will increase as we get closer to that time period.
On a side note, I looked at the almanac data for Abilene Regional Airport from the first official day of winter until yesterday. Our average high for December 21st through January 17th ranges from 54 to 56. During that time, we have only been in the 50s for a high a total of 4 times. Of those 4 times, we were at or below average only twice. Our coldest high so far was 54 on January 9th. Also, we have set 4 record highs and tied another one since winter started. Looking at these numbers, I think we can all agree that it has been a mild winter.
Have a wonderful Wednesday!
It was another chilly start to the day across the Big Country. A few locations did drop below freezing. The temperature in Snyder fell to 28. In Brownwood, the temperature dropped all the way down to 19 because of calm winds early this morning. Everyone will be warm by this afternoon with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Windy conditions are expected due to a surface trough moving into the area. Winds will be from the southwest at 15 to 25 mph. With low relative humidity values likely as well, there is a Red Flag Warning in effect for the entire viewing area. We all need to continue to be very careful and follow the necessary precautions to prevent fires.
Tomorrow looks to be warm and breezy. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s with winds from the southwest at 10 to 20 mph. A Fire Weather Watch is already in effect for most of the Big Country for Thursday.
A cooling trend begins on Friday with the arrival of a cold front. Highs will be in the mid to upper 60s. No rain is expected with the front.
Temperatures this weekend should be at or slightly below average for this time of year. So, finally it looks like we might see some winter-like temperatures. We could also see some rain on Sunday. An upper level disturbance may be moving across the area. For now, I'm only going with a slight chance, but hopefully that will increase as we get closer to that time period.
On a side note, I looked at the almanac data for Abilene Regional Airport from the first official day of winter until yesterday. Our average high for December 21st through January 17th ranges from 54 to 56. During that time, we have only been in the 50s for a high a total of 4 times. Of those 4 times, we were at or below average only twice. Our coldest high so far was 54 on January 9th. Also, we have set 4 record highs and tied another one since winter started. Looking at these numbers, I think we can all agree that it has been a mild winter.
Have a wonderful Wednesday!
Tuesday, January 17, 2006
4:30 p.m. Tuesday Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
What a beautiful day across the Big Country. The only complaint would be the cool Northerly winds. Otherwise a very seasonable afternoon.
Unfortunately this cannot last forever... By tomorrow afternoon (Wednesday) expect windy conditions to return once again. Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are already in effect across the Big Country through Wednesday afternoon and I would not be surprised if we have advisories out for Thursday as well.
As with previous forecasts it looks like we will remain dry through the extended forecast. There is a slim chance for some rain next Monday and Tuesday. The only problem is, when we see rain chances this far out, we just have to wait and see how things pan out.
I've received a lot of e-mails and phone calls about the long-term effects of the lack of rainfall. I am doing a little research and will answer all of those questions in an upcoming newscast and post here on the blog.
What a beautiful day across the Big Country. The only complaint would be the cool Northerly winds. Otherwise a very seasonable afternoon.
Unfortunately this cannot last forever... By tomorrow afternoon (Wednesday) expect windy conditions to return once again. Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are already in effect across the Big Country through Wednesday afternoon and I would not be surprised if we have advisories out for Thursday as well.
As with previous forecasts it looks like we will remain dry through the extended forecast. There is a slim chance for some rain next Monday and Tuesday. The only problem is, when we see rain chances this far out, we just have to wait and see how things pan out.
I've received a lot of e-mails and phone calls about the long-term effects of the lack of rainfall. I am doing a little research and will answer all of those questions in an upcoming newscast and post here on the blog.
Tuesday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off chilly this morning with temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s. You might need to hang on to your coat or jacket through the day today. Seasonable temperatures are expected this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 50s. Breezy conditions will remain with winds from the northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
If you like the colder temperatures, enjoy today because the warm and windy conditions return tomorrow. Highs Wednesday and Thursday should be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Winds from the southwest at 15 to 25 mph will be likely. The elevated fire danger continues. A Fire Weather Watch is already in effect for Knox county for tomorrow. Also, a Red Flag Warning is in effect until 6 p.m. Wednesday evening for Stephens, Eastland, and Commanche counties. Please continue to be careful and follow all the necessary precautions to help prevent fires.
A cold front is expected to arrive on Friday morning. Unfortunately, it looks like we won't receive any rainfall from the front. Highs should be in the low 60s. Cooler temperatures look to continue into Saturday.
Have a terrific Tuesday!
We started off chilly this morning with temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s. You might need to hang on to your coat or jacket through the day today. Seasonable temperatures are expected this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 50s. Breezy conditions will remain with winds from the northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
If you like the colder temperatures, enjoy today because the warm and windy conditions return tomorrow. Highs Wednesday and Thursday should be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Winds from the southwest at 15 to 25 mph will be likely. The elevated fire danger continues. A Fire Weather Watch is already in effect for Knox county for tomorrow. Also, a Red Flag Warning is in effect until 6 p.m. Wednesday evening for Stephens, Eastland, and Commanche counties. Please continue to be careful and follow all the necessary precautions to help prevent fires.
A cold front is expected to arrive on Friday morning. Unfortunately, it looks like we won't receive any rainfall from the front. Highs should be in the low 60s. Cooler temperatures look to continue into Saturday.
Have a terrific Tuesday!
Monday, January 16, 2006
4:45 p.m. Monday Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
Cloudy skies today with a few sprinkles. Unfortunately we are not going to see enough precipitation to end our drought or fire weather concerns.
Overnight there will be a slim chance of a few more isolated showers and even a few wet snow flakes as well. The chance for snow will mainly be North and West of Abilene. I do not expect any accumulations.
After tonight, we will be back into a warm and dry pattern for Wednesday and Thursday. Unfortunately winds will be picking back up to 15 to 25 miles per hour by Wednesday afternoon. So as with previous days, fire danger will be extremely high.
Another cold front will push through Thursday into Friday. This is the cold front that I mentioned about a week ago that I at first thought was going to be able to bring down some Arctic air. Unfortunately the Arctic air just didn't move. So, we will still get some cooler weather for Friday and Saturday with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. But, we will not be experiencing any typical winter weather.
Cloudy skies today with a few sprinkles. Unfortunately we are not going to see enough precipitation to end our drought or fire weather concerns.
Overnight there will be a slim chance of a few more isolated showers and even a few wet snow flakes as well. The chance for snow will mainly be North and West of Abilene. I do not expect any accumulations.
After tonight, we will be back into a warm and dry pattern for Wednesday and Thursday. Unfortunately winds will be picking back up to 15 to 25 miles per hour by Wednesday afternoon. So as with previous days, fire danger will be extremely high.
Another cold front will push through Thursday into Friday. This is the cold front that I mentioned about a week ago that I at first thought was going to be able to bring down some Arctic air. Unfortunately the Arctic air just didn't move. So, we will still get some cooler weather for Friday and Saturday with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. But, we will not be experiencing any typical winter weather.
Friday, January 13, 2006
4:45 p.m. Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
Get ready for a cold night tonight across the area. Winds will calm combined with clear skies and temperatures should drop like a rock.
You've probably heard the term radiational cooling from us before. Here's what happens every day. When the sun rises, short wave radiation comes through the atmosphere and is absorbed by the ground, buildings, our cars, etc. After a short period of time the ground begins to release this energy as longwave radiation. That is how we warm up each day. A good way to feel this is to place your hand close to a sidewalk or driveway in the late afternoon, you can just about feel the heat coming off of the ground. That is the longwave radiation releasing into the atmosphere.
Now, after the sun sets, the ground continues to release the energy. On a night like tonight with clear skies and calm winds, there is absolutely nothing to stop this "radiational cooling" from taking place. Thus, we have colder low temperatures on an night like tonight. This is also why we see our low temperatures taking place just after sunrise. As the sun rises, this is the time we have been the longest without the sun's energy. Thus, this is the coolest we will usually be during a 24 hour period. Now, other factors, like cold fronts, can affect what time of day our low temperatures can take place, and prevent the 24 hour low from occuring right at sunrise.
As we head into Saturday, Southwest winds return the warmth returns as well. Winds will average at about 10 to 20 miles per hour and with this afternoon highs will top out in the middle to upper 60s across the area.
Sunday will be another fire weather concern day. With wind speeds averaging 15 to 25 miles per hour and relative humidity values averagin around 20%, there will be an elevated risk of fire danger.
This is all ahead of another cold front due to arrive Sunday night. This frontal system will also help setup a chance for a few showers. Right now rain chances are only running at or below 20%, but at least there is a chance.
There is also a chance for a few wet snow flakes in the Northern and Western Big Country Sunday night into Monday morning. As an upper level disturbance moves over the cooler air at the surface, we could see a couple of wet snow flakes. I do not expect any accumulations though.
Looking into next week, we may see another couple of fire weather days and a chance of some colder air moving back into the Southern United States. More on that Monday.
Get ready for a cold night tonight across the area. Winds will calm combined with clear skies and temperatures should drop like a rock.
You've probably heard the term radiational cooling from us before. Here's what happens every day. When the sun rises, short wave radiation comes through the atmosphere and is absorbed by the ground, buildings, our cars, etc. After a short period of time the ground begins to release this energy as longwave radiation. That is how we warm up each day. A good way to feel this is to place your hand close to a sidewalk or driveway in the late afternoon, you can just about feel the heat coming off of the ground. That is the longwave radiation releasing into the atmosphere.
Now, after the sun sets, the ground continues to release the energy. On a night like tonight with clear skies and calm winds, there is absolutely nothing to stop this "radiational cooling" from taking place. Thus, we have colder low temperatures on an night like tonight. This is also why we see our low temperatures taking place just after sunrise. As the sun rises, this is the time we have been the longest without the sun's energy. Thus, this is the coolest we will usually be during a 24 hour period. Now, other factors, like cold fronts, can affect what time of day our low temperatures can take place, and prevent the 24 hour low from occuring right at sunrise.
As we head into Saturday, Southwest winds return the warmth returns as well. Winds will average at about 10 to 20 miles per hour and with this afternoon highs will top out in the middle to upper 60s across the area.
Sunday will be another fire weather concern day. With wind speeds averaging 15 to 25 miles per hour and relative humidity values averagin around 20%, there will be an elevated risk of fire danger.
This is all ahead of another cold front due to arrive Sunday night. This frontal system will also help setup a chance for a few showers. Right now rain chances are only running at or below 20%, but at least there is a chance.
There is also a chance for a few wet snow flakes in the Northern and Western Big Country Sunday night into Monday morning. As an upper level disturbance moves over the cooler air at the surface, we could see a couple of wet snow flakes. I do not expect any accumulations though.
Looking into next week, we may see another couple of fire weather days and a chance of some colder air moving back into the Southern United States. More on that Monday.
Friday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off chilly this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 30s across the viewing area. A nice warm-up is on tap for today with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. That's going to be about 20 degrees cooler than yesterday. Winds will be lighter from the north-northwest at 5 to 15 mph. There is a Red Flag Warning for Stephens, Eastland, and Comanche counties until 6 p.m. this evening.
We'll experience a warming trend this weekend with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. Breezy conditions are expected on Saturday. Sunday looks to be windy. We need to continue to be careful and take the necessary precautions in order to prevent fires.
A cold front should arrive Sunday night. Temperatures will cool down into the low 60s for highs on Monday, which is Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. The good news is that there is a chance of a shower or thunderstorm Sunday night and Monday. The bad news is that it is only a slight chance of rain. As of right now, it looks like the better moisture and dynamics will be in east Texas.
Another cold front arrives Monday night and actually brings temperatures down a little below average for this time of year.
Have a fantastic Friday!
We started off chilly this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 30s across the viewing area. A nice warm-up is on tap for today with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. That's going to be about 20 degrees cooler than yesterday. Winds will be lighter from the north-northwest at 5 to 15 mph. There is a Red Flag Warning for Stephens, Eastland, and Comanche counties until 6 p.m. this evening.
We'll experience a warming trend this weekend with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. Breezy conditions are expected on Saturday. Sunday looks to be windy. We need to continue to be careful and take the necessary precautions in order to prevent fires.
A cold front should arrive Sunday night. Temperatures will cool down into the low 60s for highs on Monday, which is Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. The good news is that there is a chance of a shower or thunderstorm Sunday night and Monday. The bad news is that it is only a slight chance of rain. As of right now, it looks like the better moisture and dynamics will be in east Texas.
Another cold front arrives Monday night and actually brings temperatures down a little below average for this time of year.
Have a fantastic Friday!
Thursday, January 12, 2006
4:50p.m. Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
Red flag warnings will continue across the Big Country through the evening hours tonight. With a few grass fires currently burning the big concern tonight will be the change of wind direction.
The winds should begin to shift to the West-Northwest between 7 and 9 p.m. this evening. If there are any fires still burning, this could become a dangerous situation. Fire fighters are aware of the upcoming wind shift line and working to get all fires under control before then.
Friday will bring us a much cooler afternoon than Thursday behind our cold front tonight. Winds will still remain breezy enough out of the North that fire danger will still be a concern.
By Friday night winds will calm down. Combine that with the clear skies and we expect a pretty chilly night with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Another windy day will be in store for the Big Country Sunday ahead of yet another low pressure system to our North. Fire danger will once again be a concern Sunday.
Monday, Martin Luther King, Jr. day, will still hold at least a slight chance of rain from a line from Knox City down to Ballinger Eastward. Unfortunately, the best chances for decent rainfall will be just East of the KRBC viewing area.
Yet another cold front will push through Monday night. This frontal system will know temperatures below normal for Tuesday.
There is still a chance of even colder air invading the Big Country by next Thursday and Friday.
Red flag warnings will continue across the Big Country through the evening hours tonight. With a few grass fires currently burning the big concern tonight will be the change of wind direction.
The winds should begin to shift to the West-Northwest between 7 and 9 p.m. this evening. If there are any fires still burning, this could become a dangerous situation. Fire fighters are aware of the upcoming wind shift line and working to get all fires under control before then.
Friday will bring us a much cooler afternoon than Thursday behind our cold front tonight. Winds will still remain breezy enough out of the North that fire danger will still be a concern.
By Friday night winds will calm down. Combine that with the clear skies and we expect a pretty chilly night with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Another windy day will be in store for the Big Country Sunday ahead of yet another low pressure system to our North. Fire danger will once again be a concern Sunday.
Monday, Martin Luther King, Jr. day, will still hold at least a slight chance of rain from a line from Knox City down to Ballinger Eastward. Unfortunately, the best chances for decent rainfall will be just East of the KRBC viewing area.
Yet another cold front will push through Monday night. This frontal system will know temperatures below normal for Tuesday.
There is still a chance of even colder air invading the Big Country by next Thursday and Friday.
Thursday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off mild this morning with temperatures mainly in the 40s to low 50s across the area. It will be a warm and windy day overall. Highs should reach the upper 70s to low 80s. The record high for this date at Abilene Regional Airport is 82 which was set in 2000, so we will be close to setting a new record. Winds will be strong from the southwest at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts likely. With warm temperatures, windy conditions, and low relative humidity values expected, the entire viewing area is under a Red Flag Warning. We need to continue to be careful and take the necessary precautions to prevent fires. You may also want to postpone your trip to the lake since there is a Lake Wind Advisory in effect for Haskell, Jones, Nolan, and Taylor counties from 10 a.m. until 6 p.m.
A cold front still looks to arrive tonight. No rain is expected, but it will be cooler. Temperatures are will likely remain above average for this time of year. Highs on Friday and Saturday should be in the low to mid 60s.
Warm and windy conditions return for Sunday ahead of another cold front that should arrive Sunday night. The good news is that we may see some rain with this front beginning that night and lasting into Monday. Right now that chance is only 20%, but hopefully as we get closer to the event the chance will improve. I'm not expecting a lot of rain, but at this point something is better than nothing.
Have a terrific Thursday!
We started off mild this morning with temperatures mainly in the 40s to low 50s across the area. It will be a warm and windy day overall. Highs should reach the upper 70s to low 80s. The record high for this date at Abilene Regional Airport is 82 which was set in 2000, so we will be close to setting a new record. Winds will be strong from the southwest at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts likely. With warm temperatures, windy conditions, and low relative humidity values expected, the entire viewing area is under a Red Flag Warning. We need to continue to be careful and take the necessary precautions to prevent fires. You may also want to postpone your trip to the lake since there is a Lake Wind Advisory in effect for Haskell, Jones, Nolan, and Taylor counties from 10 a.m. until 6 p.m.
A cold front still looks to arrive tonight. No rain is expected, but it will be cooler. Temperatures are will likely remain above average for this time of year. Highs on Friday and Saturday should be in the low to mid 60s.
Warm and windy conditions return for Sunday ahead of another cold front that should arrive Sunday night. The good news is that we may see some rain with this front beginning that night and lasting into Monday. Right now that chance is only 20%, but hopefully as we get closer to the event the chance will improve. I'm not expecting a lot of rain, but at this point something is better than nothing.
Have a terrific Thursday!
Wednesday, January 11, 2006
4:45p.m. Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
The winds are beginning to increase across the Big Country and with that the fire danger will continue to rise as well.
Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are in effect for the entire KRBC viewing area. Please continue to use extra caution outdoors. Burn bans remain in effect for over 78% of the state of Texas.
We do have some changes on the way. First, another cold front pushes through Thursday evening into Friday. This front will knock temperatures back down into the lower to middle 60s for Friday and Saturday.
Sunday afternoon expect another windy afternoon ahead of another cold front due to arrive Sunday night.
The good news about that front is it looks like we'll still have enough moisture around for a few showers Monday. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms East of our area Monday and Monday afternoon.
Even if we do see rain, I do not expect to receive more than a quarter of an inch across the area. This will not relieve the fire weather conditions across the Big Country in the long term, but it will help in the short term.
The winds are beginning to increase across the Big Country and with that the fire danger will continue to rise as well.
Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are in effect for the entire KRBC viewing area. Please continue to use extra caution outdoors. Burn bans remain in effect for over 78% of the state of Texas.
We do have some changes on the way. First, another cold front pushes through Thursday evening into Friday. This front will knock temperatures back down into the lower to middle 60s for Friday and Saturday.
Sunday afternoon expect another windy afternoon ahead of another cold front due to arrive Sunday night.
The good news about that front is it looks like we'll still have enough moisture around for a few showers Monday. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms East of our area Monday and Monday afternoon.
Even if we do see rain, I do not expect to receive more than a quarter of an inch across the area. This will not relieve the fire weather conditions across the Big Country in the long term, but it will help in the short term.
Wednesday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
It was a chilly start to the day across the Big Country. Brownwood and Snyder both dropped well below freezing this morning. Abilene and Sweetwater, however, stayed in the upper 30s to low 40s. It was colder towards Brownwood and Snyder because of calm to light winds. Everyone will warm up nicely this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 70s. The wind picks up today from the southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Due to the breezy conditions combined with the warm temperatures and low relative humidity values, most of the viewing area is under a Red Flag Warning. The only counties not under the warning are Knox, Stonewall, Scurry, and Mitchell counties.
The increased fire danger continues tomorrow. Highs will likely be in the mid to upper 70s with windy conditions. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for just about everybody. Knox County is not under one at this time. Stephens, Eastland, and Comanche counties are already under a Red Flag Warning for tomorrow and Friday. With the increased fire danger continuing we need to keep following all the necessary precautions to help prevent fires.
A cold front is expected to arrive late Thursday night, which will cool us down to the low 60s for highs on Friday and Saturday. It looks like this will be yet another dry frontal passage.
The good news is that after looking at the models this morning, we might see a little bit of rain Sunday night and into Monday. Chances aren't that great though. If I had to put a number on it right now, I would say it's slight to 20%. If we do see the rain, it doesn't look like much. But at this point, I think we'll take what we can get.
Have a wonderful Wednesday!
It was a chilly start to the day across the Big Country. Brownwood and Snyder both dropped well below freezing this morning. Abilene and Sweetwater, however, stayed in the upper 30s to low 40s. It was colder towards Brownwood and Snyder because of calm to light winds. Everyone will warm up nicely this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 70s. The wind picks up today from the southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Due to the breezy conditions combined with the warm temperatures and low relative humidity values, most of the viewing area is under a Red Flag Warning. The only counties not under the warning are Knox, Stonewall, Scurry, and Mitchell counties.
The increased fire danger continues tomorrow. Highs will likely be in the mid to upper 70s with windy conditions. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for just about everybody. Knox County is not under one at this time. Stephens, Eastland, and Comanche counties are already under a Red Flag Warning for tomorrow and Friday. With the increased fire danger continuing we need to keep following all the necessary precautions to help prevent fires.
A cold front is expected to arrive late Thursday night, which will cool us down to the low 60s for highs on Friday and Saturday. It looks like this will be yet another dry frontal passage.
The good news is that after looking at the models this morning, we might see a little bit of rain Sunday night and into Monday. Chances aren't that great though. If I had to put a number on it right now, I would say it's slight to 20%. If we do see the rain, it doesn't look like much. But at this point, I think we'll take what we can get.
Have a wonderful Wednesday!
Tuesday, January 10, 2006
4:45p.m. Update
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
What a beautiful day across the Big Country! It started off chilly, with folks in Snyder starting the morning off at 19 degrees. After the sun came up most of us warmed up into the lower 60s.
Unfortunately, it won't be as "perfect" tomorrow. Winds will begin to increase out of the South around 10 to 20 miles per hour as a trough builds in the Central plains. By Thursday this trough will form a low pressure system that will kick winds up to 15 to 25 miles per hour Thursday afternoon.
Fire Weather Watches are already in effect across the Big Country with Red Flag Warnings out for Stephens, Eastland and Comanche counties. As with all days until we finally get some rainfall, use extreme caution outdoors and remember that outdoor burning is still banned across the Big Country.
Speaking of rain, a couple of models are beginning to hint at the idea of a few showers on Martin Luther King, Jr. day next Monday. Right now it is just too far our to tell, but at least there is a slight chance of a chance for rain in the forecast.
There is also a chance of a strong shot of cold air moving into the U.S. by next Thursday. Again, give us a few more days and we will have a much better idea of when the cold air could arrive.
What a beautiful day across the Big Country! It started off chilly, with folks in Snyder starting the morning off at 19 degrees. After the sun came up most of us warmed up into the lower 60s.
Unfortunately, it won't be as "perfect" tomorrow. Winds will begin to increase out of the South around 10 to 20 miles per hour as a trough builds in the Central plains. By Thursday this trough will form a low pressure system that will kick winds up to 15 to 25 miles per hour Thursday afternoon.
Fire Weather Watches are already in effect across the Big Country with Red Flag Warnings out for Stephens, Eastland and Comanche counties. As with all days until we finally get some rainfall, use extreme caution outdoors and remember that outdoor burning is still banned across the Big Country.
Speaking of rain, a couple of models are beginning to hint at the idea of a few showers on Martin Luther King, Jr. day next Monday. Right now it is just too far our to tell, but at least there is a slight chance of a chance for rain in the forecast.
There is also a chance of a strong shot of cold air moving into the U.S. by next Thursday. Again, give us a few more days and we will have a much better idea of when the cold air could arrive.
Tuesday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off cold this morning with everyone pretty much at or below freezing. We should warm up nicely this afternoon. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50s. It won't be as breezy as yesterday with winds from the west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
The lighter winds will be short lived as they begin to pick up by tomorrow morning. Windy conditions are expected by the afternoon with winds from the southwest at 15 to 25 mph. After a few days in the 50s for highs, we'll return back to the low to mid 70s for Wednesday and Thursday. With warm temperatures, low relative humidity values and windy conditions likely for both days, there is an elevated fire danger. Most of the viewing area is under a Fire Weather Watch. Stonewall, Scurry, and Mitchell counties are not under the watch at this time. We all need to continue to follow the necessary precautions to help prevent fires.
A cold front is expected to arrive late Thursday night into Friday morning. This should cool us down into the upper 50s to low 60s for Friday and Saturday. No rain is expected with this front, so it looks like we will continue the dry trend through the weekend.
Have a terrific Tuesday!
We started off cold this morning with everyone pretty much at or below freezing. We should warm up nicely this afternoon. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50s. It won't be as breezy as yesterday with winds from the west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
The lighter winds will be short lived as they begin to pick up by tomorrow morning. Windy conditions are expected by the afternoon with winds from the southwest at 15 to 25 mph. After a few days in the 50s for highs, we'll return back to the low to mid 70s for Wednesday and Thursday. With warm temperatures, low relative humidity values and windy conditions likely for both days, there is an elevated fire danger. Most of the viewing area is under a Fire Weather Watch. Stonewall, Scurry, and Mitchell counties are not under the watch at this time. We all need to continue to follow the necessary precautions to help prevent fires.
A cold front is expected to arrive late Thursday night into Friday morning. This should cool us down into the upper 50s to low 60s for Friday and Saturday. No rain is expected with this front, so it looks like we will continue the dry trend through the weekend.
Have a terrific Tuesday!
Monday, January 09, 2006
Late Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
I apologize for the late update today. It has been a Monday full of meetings and construction. More on the construction over the next few weeks. I don't want to give too many details away. :-)
After a breezy a cool day across the Big Country today expect pleasant weather for your Tuesday. Winds will run about 5 to 10 miles per hour out of the West-Northwest and afternoon highs will struggle to reach 60 degress.
Unfortunately, this beautiful weather will only last for Tuesday. Another surface low pressure system will begin to form just North of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles creating yet another tightening pressure gradient across the area. Wednesday winds will begin to increase out of the Southwest anywhere from 10 to 25 miles per hour. This will continue through the day Thursday as well. With the warmer, drier air filtering in from the Southwest, afternoon highs will climb back into the lower to middle 70s.
Another cold front will pass Thursday into Friday. This frontal system will bring temperatures back to near normal for Friday and Saturday.
Still no rain in the forecast unfortunately. But, we are watching a fairly decent amount of cold air building in extreme Northern Canada. I'm expecting this airmass to being to make a move South by the beginning of next week. By the end of next week, I would be surprised to see temperature below normal across the Big Country. It's still a little too far out to tell if there will be any chance for precipitation with this system, but at least it looks like we will see a break to the overall pattern we've been in for the past few weeks.
I apologize for the late update today. It has been a Monday full of meetings and construction. More on the construction over the next few weeks. I don't want to give too many details away. :-)
After a breezy a cool day across the Big Country today expect pleasant weather for your Tuesday. Winds will run about 5 to 10 miles per hour out of the West-Northwest and afternoon highs will struggle to reach 60 degress.
Unfortunately, this beautiful weather will only last for Tuesday. Another surface low pressure system will begin to form just North of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles creating yet another tightening pressure gradient across the area. Wednesday winds will begin to increase out of the Southwest anywhere from 10 to 25 miles per hour. This will continue through the day Thursday as well. With the warmer, drier air filtering in from the Southwest, afternoon highs will climb back into the lower to middle 70s.
Another cold front will pass Thursday into Friday. This frontal system will bring temperatures back to near normal for Friday and Saturday.
Still no rain in the forecast unfortunately. But, we are watching a fairly decent amount of cold air building in extreme Northern Canada. I'm expecting this airmass to being to make a move South by the beginning of next week. By the end of next week, I would be surprised to see temperature below normal across the Big Country. It's still a little too far out to tell if there will be any chance for precipitation with this system, but at least it looks like we will see a break to the overall pattern we've been in for the past few weeks.
Monday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
After a warm weekend, it looks like we will begin the work week with much cooler temperatures. A cold front is making it's way across the Big Country this morning and should clear the southern portions of the viewing area by early this afternoon. Highs today will reach the upper 50s to low 60s, which is still a little above average for this time of year. Breezy conditions are expected with winds from the south ahead of the front shifting to the north behind it. Sustained winds look to be about 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts likely with the frontal passage. There is an elevated fire danger today because of the breezy conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Stephens, Eastland, and Comanche counties.
You might want to bring the pets in tonight. It looks we'll have cold temperatures with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Tomorrow should be nice with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 50s. The good news is that winds are expected to be light from the west-northwest.
The lighter winds look to be short lived as windy conditions are expected for Wednesday and Thursday. It should also be warm with highs in the low to mid 70s both days.
A cold front is expected to arrive early Friday cooling us back down into the upper 50s for highs. The bad news is that this looks to be another dry frontal passage. As of right now, we'll be dry through at least the end of this week. Please continue to use all precautions when you are outside. With a dry ground and breezy conditions, it doesn't take much for a fire to start and get out of control quickly.
Have a magnificent Monday!
After a warm weekend, it looks like we will begin the work week with much cooler temperatures. A cold front is making it's way across the Big Country this morning and should clear the southern portions of the viewing area by early this afternoon. Highs today will reach the upper 50s to low 60s, which is still a little above average for this time of year. Breezy conditions are expected with winds from the south ahead of the front shifting to the north behind it. Sustained winds look to be about 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts likely with the frontal passage. There is an elevated fire danger today because of the breezy conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Stephens, Eastland, and Comanche counties.
You might want to bring the pets in tonight. It looks we'll have cold temperatures with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Tomorrow should be nice with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 50s. The good news is that winds are expected to be light from the west-northwest.
The lighter winds look to be short lived as windy conditions are expected for Wednesday and Thursday. It should also be warm with highs in the low to mid 70s both days.
A cold front is expected to arrive early Friday cooling us back down into the upper 50s for highs. The bad news is that this looks to be another dry frontal passage. As of right now, we'll be dry through at least the end of this week. Please continue to use all precautions when you are outside. With a dry ground and breezy conditions, it doesn't take much for a fire to start and get out of control quickly.
Have a magnificent Monday!
Saturday, January 07, 2006
Saturday Update
From meteorologist Jason Myers.....
A Red Flag Warning will remain in effect for Sunday, meaning that the threat for fires getting out of control is high.
Another warm, recording breaking high temperature today. Today's high of 78 degrees beat the record of 74 degrees set back in 1965. The warm temperatures will stay around for the rest of the weekend along with the windy conditions. Sunday's winds will be from the west-southwest from around 10-20 mph with some gusts 25-30 mph at certain locations. A cold front will move through on Monday bringing temperatures down into the 60s for the first half of the week, yet the 70s will return for Thursday and Friday.
Long-range models are indicating cold, arctic air working its way down into Texas and the Big Country about 10 days from now. That's still a long way out, yet it does look like colder air is possible for the week after the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend.
The fire danger remains in effect with no rain chances in the near future.
A Red Flag Warning will remain in effect for Sunday, meaning that the threat for fires getting out of control is high.
Another warm, recording breaking high temperature today. Today's high of 78 degrees beat the record of 74 degrees set back in 1965. The warm temperatures will stay around for the rest of the weekend along with the windy conditions. Sunday's winds will be from the west-southwest from around 10-20 mph with some gusts 25-30 mph at certain locations. A cold front will move through on Monday bringing temperatures down into the 60s for the first half of the week, yet the 70s will return for Thursday and Friday.
Long-range models are indicating cold, arctic air working its way down into Texas and the Big Country about 10 days from now. That's still a long way out, yet it does look like colder air is possible for the week after the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend.
The fire danger remains in effect with no rain chances in the near future.
Friday, January 06, 2006
Question From Matthew
Matthew asks: "What's your opinion on the possible precip. that the models are hinting at towards the middle of the month? Could there be a winter wx. event if the major cool-down combines with the precip.?"
Matthew,
GREAT question. If there is one major problem with extended computer models, it's that the longer the run, or the farther out the forecast, the less accuracy. When you start looking at models past the first few days, one of the things a forecaster has to do is start looking for trends, as opposed to exact details. For example, the GFSX, which is one of the models I use on a daily basis puts out a product that gives exact forecast numbers called a MOS product. (MOS = Model Output Statistics) When using the GFSX MOS product after day 4 or 5, the model starts using the climatological averages as part of the equation. So, you have to take that into account when forecasting. The same goes with looking at extended models for precipitation. Too many different factors can come into play between now and then that could change. Do I believe there is a chance of precipitation? Certainly, we won't stay dry forever.
As far as winter weather, I have noticed that a decent amount of cold air is beginning to build between Alaska and the Arctic. Generally, when you see that much cold air building, one can believe that it has to move eventually. Judging from the upper air pattern across the Pacific and North America, it seems like the pattern we are in now could break down in a couple of weeks. IF that pattern breaks down, IF that cold air makes a move South and IF the precipitation you mentioned pans out, sure, we could see a winter weather event.
IF you ask me, there's a few too many IF's there to get excited this soon.
I hope that answers your question Matthew. If you would like to, please e-mail where you saw the model information about the precipitation and I can go into detail about the particular model and it's biases.
We love to answer questions here, if there is anything anyone else would like to ask, please post a comment on the board or e-mail me at ccarnesi@krbc.tv and I'll answer as soon as I can.
Matthew,
GREAT question. If there is one major problem with extended computer models, it's that the longer the run, or the farther out the forecast, the less accuracy. When you start looking at models past the first few days, one of the things a forecaster has to do is start looking for trends, as opposed to exact details. For example, the GFSX, which is one of the models I use on a daily basis puts out a product that gives exact forecast numbers called a MOS product. (MOS = Model Output Statistics) When using the GFSX MOS product after day 4 or 5, the model starts using the climatological averages as part of the equation. So, you have to take that into account when forecasting. The same goes with looking at extended models for precipitation. Too many different factors can come into play between now and then that could change. Do I believe there is a chance of precipitation? Certainly, we won't stay dry forever.
As far as winter weather, I have noticed that a decent amount of cold air is beginning to build between Alaska and the Arctic. Generally, when you see that much cold air building, one can believe that it has to move eventually. Judging from the upper air pattern across the Pacific and North America, it seems like the pattern we are in now could break down in a couple of weeks. IF that pattern breaks down, IF that cold air makes a move South and IF the precipitation you mentioned pans out, sure, we could see a winter weather event.
IF you ask me, there's a few too many IF's there to get excited this soon.
I hope that answers your question Matthew. If you would like to, please e-mail where you saw the model information about the precipitation and I can go into detail about the particular model and it's biases.
We love to answer questions here, if there is anything anyone else would like to ask, please post a comment on the board or e-mail me at ccarnesi@krbc.tv and I'll answer as soon as I can.
4:30 p.m. Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
After starting today off at a chilly 27 in Abilene and 21 in Brownwood, we warmed up quickly to highs in the upper 60s. The reason is simply because of the very dry air in place. We are almost in a desert like climate. Dry air is much easier to warm and in turn very easy to cool at night with clear skies and calm winds.
The winds are still forecast to be a problem across the area this weekend. Red Flag Warnings are already posted across almost the entire viewing area through Saturday night. The only exceptions are Stonewall, Scurry and Mitchell counties, you are under a Fire Weather Watch for right now, but don't be surprised if the National Weather Service upgrades that watch to a Red Flag Warning tonight.
Winds will increase from 10 miles per hour Saturday morning to 20 to 30 miles per hour by Saturday afternoon. What is going to make this weekend particularly dangerous is that winds are not forecasted to calm until Sunday night. Plus, winds will be shifting direction over the course of the weekend. Usually on an afternoon the winds will begin to calm after sunset, this weekend they will not. The system that will create these winds will keep the pressure gradient tight across the area overnight Saturday into Sunday, so the winds will remain strong, around 15 to 20 miles per hour.
Sunday, if there are any active fires, changing wind direction will be a huge concern. Winds will begin to shift to the West and then eventually to the Northwest Sunday evening. As those winds change direction the direction of fire movement will change as well. Again, this will only be a major concern IF any fires are burning.
For now, please continue to use extreme caution when outdoors. No outdoor burning, no trash burning of any kind, no bar-be-cues and also please no welding or cutting torches of any kind. Also, please use extreme caution with any and all farm equipment and vehicles on the dry ground. Believe it or not, but your engine block could be hot enough to spark a fire. So please keep all vehicles on paved surfaces for the time being.
Again, as with previous forecasts, there is still no precipitation expected over the next 7 to 10 days.
After starting today off at a chilly 27 in Abilene and 21 in Brownwood, we warmed up quickly to highs in the upper 60s. The reason is simply because of the very dry air in place. We are almost in a desert like climate. Dry air is much easier to warm and in turn very easy to cool at night with clear skies and calm winds.
The winds are still forecast to be a problem across the area this weekend. Red Flag Warnings are already posted across almost the entire viewing area through Saturday night. The only exceptions are Stonewall, Scurry and Mitchell counties, you are under a Fire Weather Watch for right now, but don't be surprised if the National Weather Service upgrades that watch to a Red Flag Warning tonight.
Winds will increase from 10 miles per hour Saturday morning to 20 to 30 miles per hour by Saturday afternoon. What is going to make this weekend particularly dangerous is that winds are not forecasted to calm until Sunday night. Plus, winds will be shifting direction over the course of the weekend. Usually on an afternoon the winds will begin to calm after sunset, this weekend they will not. The system that will create these winds will keep the pressure gradient tight across the area overnight Saturday into Sunday, so the winds will remain strong, around 15 to 20 miles per hour.
Sunday, if there are any active fires, changing wind direction will be a huge concern. Winds will begin to shift to the West and then eventually to the Northwest Sunday evening. As those winds change direction the direction of fire movement will change as well. Again, this will only be a major concern IF any fires are burning.
For now, please continue to use extreme caution when outdoors. No outdoor burning, no trash burning of any kind, no bar-be-cues and also please no welding or cutting torches of any kind. Also, please use extreme caution with any and all farm equipment and vehicles on the dry ground. Believe it or not, but your engine block could be hot enough to spark a fire. So please keep all vehicles on paved surfaces for the time being.
Again, as with previous forecasts, there is still no precipitation expected over the next 7 to 10 days.
Friday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
Sorry for the late update this morning, it has been a busy day for me here in the weather center. We started off cold this morning with most areas at or below freezing. We should warm up nicely this afternoon into the low to mid 60s. Winds will be from the southwest at 5 to 10 mph so it won't be nearly as windy today as it was yesterday.
Tomorrow and Sunday are a different story. Windy conditions are expected through the weekend. This will combine with low relative humidity values and warm temperatures. Most of the area is under a Red Flag Warning for tomorrow and a Fire Weather Watch for Saturday night and Sunday. We all need to be very careful this weekend. It won't take much for a fire to get out of control quickly, so please follow all the necessary fire precautions. Highs on Saturday and Sunday look to be in the mid to upper 70s. Some locations may reach the low 80s.
A cold front is expected to arrive late Sunday night into Monday morning. This should cool us down into the mid 60s for high on Monday and Tuesday. It still looks like we will remain dry for at least the next week.
Have a fantastic Friday!
Sorry for the late update this morning, it has been a busy day for me here in the weather center. We started off cold this morning with most areas at or below freezing. We should warm up nicely this afternoon into the low to mid 60s. Winds will be from the southwest at 5 to 10 mph so it won't be nearly as windy today as it was yesterday.
Tomorrow and Sunday are a different story. Windy conditions are expected through the weekend. This will combine with low relative humidity values and warm temperatures. Most of the area is under a Red Flag Warning for tomorrow and a Fire Weather Watch for Saturday night and Sunday. We all need to be very careful this weekend. It won't take much for a fire to get out of control quickly, so please follow all the necessary fire precautions. Highs on Saturday and Sunday look to be in the mid to upper 70s. Some locations may reach the low 80s.
A cold front is expected to arrive late Sunday night into Monday morning. This should cool us down into the mid 60s for high on Monday and Tuesday. It still looks like we will remain dry for at least the next week.
Have a fantastic Friday!
Thursday, January 05, 2006
5:00 p.m. Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
More of the same across the Big Country over the next 24 hours.
The big change for tonight will be a hard freeze areawide, which we have not seen in quite awhile. Remember to bring the pets indoors tonight. Also, remember to use extra caution with space heaters. If at all possible, throw an extra blanket on the bed instead of using a space heater.
Winds will remain calm tonight and only run 5 to 10 miles per hour Friday. By Saturday, winds will get back into the windy catagory running 15 to 25 miles per hour.
The National Weather Service has already Fire Weather Watches for all of our viewing area for Saturday. These watches will likely be upgraded to Red Flag Warnings tomorrow.
Sunday will remain windy as well, as winds come around to a more Westerly direction as opposed to the Southwesterly direction expected Saturday. The other big concern on Sunday will be the timing of a cold front arriving with any fires that could be burning. Winds will quickly shift from the West to the North sometime Sunday. As this happens, if any fires are burning, this could seriously hurt fire fighters while battling fires.
We will have a much better handle on the timing of the wind shift as we get into the weekend.
More of the same across the Big Country over the next 24 hours.
The big change for tonight will be a hard freeze areawide, which we have not seen in quite awhile. Remember to bring the pets indoors tonight. Also, remember to use extra caution with space heaters. If at all possible, throw an extra blanket on the bed instead of using a space heater.
Winds will remain calm tonight and only run 5 to 10 miles per hour Friday. By Saturday, winds will get back into the windy catagory running 15 to 25 miles per hour.
The National Weather Service has already Fire Weather Watches for all of our viewing area for Saturday. These watches will likely be upgraded to Red Flag Warnings tomorrow.
Sunday will remain windy as well, as winds come around to a more Westerly direction as opposed to the Southwesterly direction expected Saturday. The other big concern on Sunday will be the timing of a cold front arriving with any fires that could be burning. Winds will quickly shift from the West to the North sometime Sunday. As this happens, if any fires are burning, this could seriously hurt fire fighters while battling fires.
We will have a much better handle on the timing of the wind shift as we get into the weekend.
Another Windy Day Ahead
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off chilly this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 30s across the area. We should warm up nicely this afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Windy conditions are expected with winds from the north-northwest at 10 to 25 mph. There is an increased fire danger today due to the windy and dry conditions. In fact, Stephens, Eastland, and Commanche counties are under a Red Flag Warning from noon until 6 p.m. today.
Friday looks to be a pretty good day with temperatures in the low 60s and winds from the southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
An upper level system is still projected to pass to our north on Saturday which means that we will likely have windy conditions. With low relative humidity values also expected, most of the National Weather Service offices that cover our viewing area have issued a Fire Weather Watch for Saturday. Right now, only Stonewall, Scurry, and Mitchell counties are not under the watch. That could change, so stay tuned. Highs should reach the upper 70s.
Unfortunately, it looks like we will remain dry for at least the next five to seven days. We all need to continue to be careful and follow the necessary fire prevention precautions.
Have a terrific Thursday!
We started off chilly this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 30s across the area. We should warm up nicely this afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Windy conditions are expected with winds from the north-northwest at 10 to 25 mph. There is an increased fire danger today due to the windy and dry conditions. In fact, Stephens, Eastland, and Commanche counties are under a Red Flag Warning from noon until 6 p.m. today.
Friday looks to be a pretty good day with temperatures in the low 60s and winds from the southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
An upper level system is still projected to pass to our north on Saturday which means that we will likely have windy conditions. With low relative humidity values also expected, most of the National Weather Service offices that cover our viewing area have issued a Fire Weather Watch for Saturday. Right now, only Stonewall, Scurry, and Mitchell counties are not under the watch. That could change, so stay tuned. Highs should reach the upper 70s.
Unfortunately, it looks like we will remain dry for at least the next five to seven days. We all need to continue to be careful and follow the necessary fire prevention precautions.
Have a terrific Thursday!
Wednesday, January 04, 2006
4:30p.m. Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
A much cooler afternoon across the Big Country today. Yesterday Abilene set a record high temperatures of 86 degrees, today, our high temperatures only made it into the lower 60s.
The cool weather will stick around for a couple of days. A reinforcing shot of cooler air will arrive Thursday afternoon, bringing with it gusty winds out of the North. With the dry air still around, and winds gusting to 30 miles per hour, the fire weather danger will remain elevated Thursday afternoon.
The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has already issued a Red Flag Warning for Stephens, Eastland and Comanche counties until 6:00 p.m. Thursday because of the dry and windy conditions.
The winds will calm down a bit Friday, but temperatures will remain cool in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
By Saturday, another upper level system will pass to our North, and with that, winds will once again become windy. Winds are forecasted to run anywhere from 15 to 30 miles per hour. The National Weather Service is already anticipating issuing a Red Flag Warning for Saturday.
Unfortunately, the extended forecast still remains dry. Looking ahead, I still do not see a chance for rain over the next 7 to 10 days.
A much cooler afternoon across the Big Country today. Yesterday Abilene set a record high temperatures of 86 degrees, today, our high temperatures only made it into the lower 60s.
The cool weather will stick around for a couple of days. A reinforcing shot of cooler air will arrive Thursday afternoon, bringing with it gusty winds out of the North. With the dry air still around, and winds gusting to 30 miles per hour, the fire weather danger will remain elevated Thursday afternoon.
The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has already issued a Red Flag Warning for Stephens, Eastland and Comanche counties until 6:00 p.m. Thursday because of the dry and windy conditions.
The winds will calm down a bit Friday, but temperatures will remain cool in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
By Saturday, another upper level system will pass to our North, and with that, winds will once again become windy. Winds are forecasted to run anywhere from 15 to 30 miles per hour. The National Weather Service is already anticipating issuing a Red Flag Warning for Saturday.
Unfortunately, the extended forecast still remains dry. Looking ahead, I still do not see a chance for rain over the next 7 to 10 days.
Wednesday Morning Update
From meteorologist Jason Myers.....
A cool start to your morning. Temperatures did not fall very much overnight due to the cloudy skies that are keeping in the heat from yesterday's warm temperatures. However, cooler temperatures are forecasted for this afternoon. A cold front made it's way across the Big Country early this morning bringing with it cooler air. Winds have shifted to the North-Northwest today and will be breezy at times with winds 10 - 20 mph. Afternoon highs will only manage to make it into the low to mid 60s. Skies should begin to clear this afternoon into this evening. The clear skies will aid in radiational cooling helping today's cooler temperatures to fall into the 30s overnight. The rest of the work week looks to start with cool mornings with lows in the 30s and afternoon highs in the 60s. Expect more sunshine than clouds Thursday and Friday. The National Weather Service may issue a Red Flag Warning for Saturday as gusty winds and warm temperatures are forecasted.
Tropical Storm Zeta is in the Central Atlantic, moving to the West at 7 mph with sustained winds of 60 mph. The storm looks to lose strength this weekend.
Have a great day!
A cool start to your morning. Temperatures did not fall very much overnight due to the cloudy skies that are keeping in the heat from yesterday's warm temperatures. However, cooler temperatures are forecasted for this afternoon. A cold front made it's way across the Big Country early this morning bringing with it cooler air. Winds have shifted to the North-Northwest today and will be breezy at times with winds 10 - 20 mph. Afternoon highs will only manage to make it into the low to mid 60s. Skies should begin to clear this afternoon into this evening. The clear skies will aid in radiational cooling helping today's cooler temperatures to fall into the 30s overnight. The rest of the work week looks to start with cool mornings with lows in the 30s and afternoon highs in the 60s. Expect more sunshine than clouds Thursday and Friday. The National Weather Service may issue a Red Flag Warning for Saturday as gusty winds and warm temperatures are forecasted.
Tropical Storm Zeta is in the Central Atlantic, moving to the West at 7 mph with sustained winds of 60 mph. The storm looks to lose strength this weekend.
Have a great day!
Tuesday, January 03, 2006
Tuesday Afternoon Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
There is finally a little bit of good news for the next couple of days. A cold front arriving late tonight into tomorrow morning will bring afternoon highs closer to seasonal averages. With the arrival of the cooler air, relative humidity values will be rising. We won't necessarily be adding more mositure to the atmosphere, but we with the cooler temperatures the fire danger will decrease just a bit for the next few days.
There are still Red Flag Warnings active through 7pm tonight for the following counties in the KRBC viewing area: Knox, Haskell, Throckmorton, Fisher, Jones, Shackelford, Stephens, Nolan, Taylor, Callahan, Eastland, Sterling, Coke, Runnels, Coleman, Brown and Comanche.
We will see a couple of light freezes over the next few nights as well. Thursday morning and Friday morning will be those mornings. Remember to bring the pets in on those nights and use extra caution with heaters and space heaters. I would advise that you not use a space heater, just throw an extra blanket on the bed for those nights.
We will probably see another windy day Saturday, with increased fire danger as another upper level system passes to our North.
For now, I still do not forsee a chance of rain through the next 5 to 7 days. Please use extra caution while outdoors and remember that burn bans are still in effect across the area.
There is finally a little bit of good news for the next couple of days. A cold front arriving late tonight into tomorrow morning will bring afternoon highs closer to seasonal averages. With the arrival of the cooler air, relative humidity values will be rising. We won't necessarily be adding more mositure to the atmosphere, but we with the cooler temperatures the fire danger will decrease just a bit for the next few days.
There are still Red Flag Warnings active through 7pm tonight for the following counties in the KRBC viewing area: Knox, Haskell, Throckmorton, Fisher, Jones, Shackelford, Stephens, Nolan, Taylor, Callahan, Eastland, Sterling, Coke, Runnels, Coleman, Brown and Comanche.
We will see a couple of light freezes over the next few nights as well. Thursday morning and Friday morning will be those mornings. Remember to bring the pets in on those nights and use extra caution with heaters and space heaters. I would advise that you not use a space heater, just throw an extra blanket on the bed for those nights.
We will probably see another windy day Saturday, with increased fire danger as another upper level system passes to our North.
For now, I still do not forsee a chance of rain through the next 5 to 7 days. Please use extra caution while outdoors and remember that burn bans are still in effect across the area.
Tuesday Morning Update
From meteorologist Jason Myers....
Critical fire weather conditions continue. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 10 A.M. to 6 P.M. this afternoon for Fisher, Nolan, Haskell, Throckmorton, Jones, Shackelford, Taylor, Stephens, Comanche, Knox, Eastland, and Callahan counties. Near record high temperatures, very low humidities, and increasing winds from the southwest will lead to this fire danger.
(NWS Red Flag Wrning Statement):
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=TXZ127&warncounty=TXC441&local_place1=Abilene&product1=Red+Flag+Warning
Today's temperatures will climb to 80 degrees or more for most locations across the Big Country. Abilene's record high is 82 degrees set back in 1997...a record that looks to be tied or broken.
Clouds will start to increase this afternoon with an approaching cold front. This cold front will bring cooler temperatures for Wednesday through this weekend, with high temperatures staying in the 60s.
Have a great day and use caution outside with the extremely dry conditions.
Critical fire weather conditions continue. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 10 A.M. to 6 P.M. this afternoon for Fisher, Nolan, Haskell, Throckmorton, Jones, Shackelford, Taylor, Stephens, Comanche, Knox, Eastland, and Callahan counties. Near record high temperatures, very low humidities, and increasing winds from the southwest will lead to this fire danger.
(NWS Red Flag Wrning Statement):
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=TXZ127&warncounty=TXC441&local_place1=Abilene&product1=Red+Flag+Warning
Today's temperatures will climb to 80 degrees or more for most locations across the Big Country. Abilene's record high is 82 degrees set back in 1997...a record that looks to be tied or broken.
Clouds will start to increase this afternoon with an approaching cold front. This cold front will bring cooler temperatures for Wednesday through this weekend, with high temperatures staying in the 60s.
Have a great day and use caution outside with the extremely dry conditions.
Monday, January 02, 2006
Afternoon Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
The fire danger continues across the KRBC viewing area and most of the states of Texas and Oklahoma. Increased winds on Tuesday have again caused the National Weather Service to issue Fire Weather Watches for Fisher, Nolan, Haskell, Throckmorton, Jones, Shackelford, Taylor, Callahan and Knox Counties.
Stephens, Eastland and Comanche counties are under a Red Flag Warning until 7:00 p.m. Monday evening due to the very dry conditions.
I would not be surprised at all to see more counties either added to the Fire Weather Watch, or all of the area upgraded to a Red Flag Warning because of the expected windy and dry conditions Tuesday.
As another system passes to our North, a tight pressure gradient will increase winds up to 10 to 20 miles per hour. There is a chance that wind speeds could get up to 20 to 30 miles per hour with higher gusts.
Remember, burn bans are in effect for all of the viewing area. Please, no outdoor burning of any kind.
Unfortunately, there is still no rain in the forecast at this time. A cold front will pass through the area overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, bring cooler temperatures through the extended forecast.
We could see strong gusty winds yet again on Saturday as another systems moves into the Central Plains.
The fire danger continues across the KRBC viewing area and most of the states of Texas and Oklahoma. Increased winds on Tuesday have again caused the National Weather Service to issue Fire Weather Watches for Fisher, Nolan, Haskell, Throckmorton, Jones, Shackelford, Taylor, Callahan and Knox Counties.
Stephens, Eastland and Comanche counties are under a Red Flag Warning until 7:00 p.m. Monday evening due to the very dry conditions.
I would not be surprised at all to see more counties either added to the Fire Weather Watch, or all of the area upgraded to a Red Flag Warning because of the expected windy and dry conditions Tuesday.
As another system passes to our North, a tight pressure gradient will increase winds up to 10 to 20 miles per hour. There is a chance that wind speeds could get up to 20 to 30 miles per hour with higher gusts.
Remember, burn bans are in effect for all of the viewing area. Please, no outdoor burning of any kind.
Unfortunately, there is still no rain in the forecast at this time. A cold front will pass through the area overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, bring cooler temperatures through the extended forecast.
We could see strong gusty winds yet again on Saturday as another systems moves into the Central Plains.
Monday Morning Update
From meteorologist Jason Myers.....
A pleasant day to be outdoors today. With highs in the lower 70s across much of the Big Country and mostly sunny skies, it will be a very nice day to be outdoors. Winds will be lighter from yesterday's wind gusts that were near 50 mph at times; today we'll see west-northwest winds from 5 - 10 mph. Yesterday's high temperature tied our record high, by reaching 82 degrees. Today will be about 10 degrees cooler because of a cold front that has passed through bringing cooler air along with it.
Winds on Tuesday will increase from the southwest at 10 - 20 mph. Temperatures will also increase into the upper 70s as an approaching cold front works through the Big County.
Wednesday through Friday the high temperatures become a little cooler due to the cold front passing late Tuesday into early Wednesday; highs will stay in the upper 60s for Wednesday and lower 60s for Thursday and Friday.
No rain is forecasted for the first week of 2006 keeping burn bans in effect. Extreme caution needs to be taken outdoors by not burning anything, no outdoor grilling, and no throwing of cigarettes outside, to name a few.
Enjoy the pleasant weather today!
A pleasant day to be outdoors today. With highs in the lower 70s across much of the Big Country and mostly sunny skies, it will be a very nice day to be outdoors. Winds will be lighter from yesterday's wind gusts that were near 50 mph at times; today we'll see west-northwest winds from 5 - 10 mph. Yesterday's high temperature tied our record high, by reaching 82 degrees. Today will be about 10 degrees cooler because of a cold front that has passed through bringing cooler air along with it.
Winds on Tuesday will increase from the southwest at 10 - 20 mph. Temperatures will also increase into the upper 70s as an approaching cold front works through the Big County.
Wednesday through Friday the high temperatures become a little cooler due to the cold front passing late Tuesday into early Wednesday; highs will stay in the upper 60s for Wednesday and lower 60s for Thursday and Friday.
No rain is forecasted for the first week of 2006 keeping burn bans in effect. Extreme caution needs to be taken outdoors by not burning anything, no outdoor grilling, and no throwing of cigarettes outside, to name a few.
Enjoy the pleasant weather today!
Sunday, January 01, 2006
Evening Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
First, the thoughts and prayers of the entire KRBC team are with those who have lost loved ones and/or homes and animals to the fires across the area this week and weekend.
Unfortunately there is still no rain in our extended forecast.
Winds will finally ease a bit overnight into Monday. Highs across the area Monday will run in the upper 60s to lower 70s behind a weak cold front.
Tuesday night will be another warm and windy day, with winds running 15-25 miles per hour and high temperatures creeping back to near 80.
Tuesday night another, this time stronger, cold front will push through the area. This front will cool temperatures down into the lower to middle 60s for the rest of the work-week.
Again, there is no rain in the extended forecast, so please, no outdoor burning of any kind. No fireworks what-so-ever, and please, keep all cigarette butts inside your vehicle.
First, the thoughts and prayers of the entire KRBC team are with those who have lost loved ones and/or homes and animals to the fires across the area this week and weekend.
Unfortunately there is still no rain in our extended forecast.
Winds will finally ease a bit overnight into Monday. Highs across the area Monday will run in the upper 60s to lower 70s behind a weak cold front.
Tuesday night will be another warm and windy day, with winds running 15-25 miles per hour and high temperatures creeping back to near 80.
Tuesday night another, this time stronger, cold front will push through the area. This front will cool temperatures down into the lower to middle 60s for the rest of the work-week.
Again, there is no rain in the extended forecast, so please, no outdoor burning of any kind. No fireworks what-so-ever, and please, keep all cigarette butts inside your vehicle.
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