Friday, September 23, 2005

8:00 p.m. NHC Advisory

Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi here again with the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

My current thinking still remains the same that the eye of Hurricane Rita will make landfall after midnight somewhere between the Sabine Pass and south of Lake Charles, LA. At Rita's current speed she would make landfall somewhere around 4:00 a.m. Saturday morning. There will be a lot of fluctuation with her speed between now and then so you can safely bet that landfall will occur between 2:00 a.m. and 6:00 a.m.

Conditions are continuing to deteriate across the entire area of concern at this hour with winds generally sustained anywhere from 25 to 40 miles per hour, with gusts ranging from 40 to 60 miles per hour. Showers and thunderstorms are continuing to pound the coastline as well.

I'll be back to update any questions you have when they come in and the next update is expected in from the Hurricane Center at 10:00 p.m.

Here are the 10:00 p.m. numbers:

AT 8 PM CDT...0100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE COAST AT THE BORDER BETWEEN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS NEAR DAYBREAKSATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL... BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS ADANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND AS FAR AS 100 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF RITA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.

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