Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi here...
I apologize for the lack of blog updates today, it has been a crazy day around KRBC today. Meetings here and there about things and of course, FRIDAY NIGHT LIVE!
Oh yeah, one other thing, Mother Nature delivering a good dose of severe weather across the Northern Big Country tonight. Strong thunderstorms waited until sunset to fire up tonight. We had a pretty decent cap on the Big Country today. We've talked about caps before, but basically a capping inversion is a warm layer in the middle levels of the atmosphere. The way convection works is by warmer air lifting through air warmer than the surrounding environment. On a "normal" day, air temperatures cool the higher in the atmosphere you go. On a day like today, you have an inversion in the mid-levels, and temperatures actually warm as opposed to cool. Thus, all uplift ceases. You either need a strong lifting force to lift the moister air higher than warmer air, or you have to cool those mid levels down to allow the lifting process to work on its own. Tonight, a combination of both took place with the upper-level low I've been talking about during newscasts sending upper level energy our way and the cooling of the cap at sunset, and boom, strong thunderstorms fired up.
The only reports we've gotten from Haskell and Knox counties have been some golfball sized hail and strong winds in excess of 60 mile per hour. Some isolated areas received up to two inches of rain.
After tomorrow (Saturday) morning, our rain chances come to end until mid-week next week. We should have plenty of moisture around ahead of another strong cold front due in sometime Wednesday.
Please, go out and make it a GREAT weekend everyone!
Friday, September 30, 2005
Temperatures Begin To Rise
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
It looks like the nice and cool conditions will end for a little while after this morning. We will warm up quite a bit today thanks to winds shifting back to the south. They will be light this morning, but by this afternoon it could be a little breezy. Highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s. There is a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The best chance will be along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor. Some of these storms could reach severe limits. The Storm Predicition Center has put the northern Big Country in a slight risk for severe weather today. The main threats will be large hail and damaging winds. The reason for our chance of rain is an upper level low currently in northern New Mexico. It is expected to move east across the Texas panhandle by later today and tonight.
Speaking of tonight, it could be a little wet for some Friday night football games. If you are heading to a game north of I-20, I would suggest packing the rain gear just in case. Not everyone will get wet, but the possibility is there that a few of you might. The chance of rain for tonight is 30% with lows in the mid to upper 60s.
We could see a lingering shower or thunderstorm in the morning tomorrow. The rest of Saturday should be nice with partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. It will be breezy with winds from the south-southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
The rest of the weekend and early next week should be warm and dry with highs around 90.
Right now, it looks like another cold front may arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday giving us a chance of rain and cooling us down to temperatures similar to what we saw yesterday.
Have a wonderful weekend!
It looks like the nice and cool conditions will end for a little while after this morning. We will warm up quite a bit today thanks to winds shifting back to the south. They will be light this morning, but by this afternoon it could be a little breezy. Highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s. There is a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The best chance will be along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor. Some of these storms could reach severe limits. The Storm Predicition Center has put the northern Big Country in a slight risk for severe weather today. The main threats will be large hail and damaging winds. The reason for our chance of rain is an upper level low currently in northern New Mexico. It is expected to move east across the Texas panhandle by later today and tonight.
Speaking of tonight, it could be a little wet for some Friday night football games. If you are heading to a game north of I-20, I would suggest packing the rain gear just in case. Not everyone will get wet, but the possibility is there that a few of you might. The chance of rain for tonight is 30% with lows in the mid to upper 60s.
We could see a lingering shower or thunderstorm in the morning tomorrow. The rest of Saturday should be nice with partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. It will be breezy with winds from the south-southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
The rest of the weekend and early next week should be warm and dry with highs around 90.
Right now, it looks like another cold front may arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday giving us a chance of rain and cooling us down to temperatures similar to what we saw yesterday.
Have a wonderful weekend!
Thursday, September 29, 2005
Thursday Afternoon Thoughts...
Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi here...
Wow, what a day across the Big Country. Snyder has only warmed up to 64 degrees so far this afternoon, Sweetwater is at 70, Abilene is at 74, Brownwood is at 75 and Comanche has only warmed to 72.
Unfortunately, the cool down will be short-lived. As we mentioned before, winds will come back around to the South by sunrise tomorrow, and that combined with more sunshine, afternoon highs will climb back into the middle 80s.
There will be a slight to 30% chance of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Low level moisture has been a little stronger to return to South Texas after the front, and we expect the moisture to build back in to the Big Country starting tomorrow morning. In fact, we may see our overnight low temperature sometime around the 4:00 a.m. to 6:00 a.m. timeframe. Temperatures may actually start to warm back up before sunrise depending upon when the winds shift back around to the Southeast.
Back to the rain, the Storm Prediction Center has put the Northern Big Country under a slight risk of severe storms. Again, this will all depend on how quickly the moisture returns.
We will keep a 20-30% chance of rain through the overnight hours Friday into Saturday and then only a slight chance of a few storms Saturday.
This is definately a different forecast than we chatted about yesterday, again, this is one of those instances where the computer models are continuing to go back and forth on our rain chances.
For now though, the only football games I see threatened for delays will be North of an Anson to Snyder line. No need to sweat just yet, this could all change once again later tonight or tomorrow morning.
I'll post again later this evening...
Wow, what a day across the Big Country. Snyder has only warmed up to 64 degrees so far this afternoon, Sweetwater is at 70, Abilene is at 74, Brownwood is at 75 and Comanche has only warmed to 72.
Unfortunately, the cool down will be short-lived. As we mentioned before, winds will come back around to the South by sunrise tomorrow, and that combined with more sunshine, afternoon highs will climb back into the middle 80s.
There will be a slight to 30% chance of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Low level moisture has been a little stronger to return to South Texas after the front, and we expect the moisture to build back in to the Big Country starting tomorrow morning. In fact, we may see our overnight low temperature sometime around the 4:00 a.m. to 6:00 a.m. timeframe. Temperatures may actually start to warm back up before sunrise depending upon when the winds shift back around to the Southeast.
Back to the rain, the Storm Prediction Center has put the Northern Big Country under a slight risk of severe storms. Again, this will all depend on how quickly the moisture returns.
We will keep a 20-30% chance of rain through the overnight hours Friday into Saturday and then only a slight chance of a few storms Saturday.
This is definately a different forecast than we chatted about yesterday, again, this is one of those instances where the computer models are continuing to go back and forth on our rain chances.
For now though, the only football games I see threatened for delays will be North of an Anson to Snyder line. No need to sweat just yet, this could all change once again later tonight or tomorrow morning.
I'll post again later this evening...
Fall-Like Temperatures Have Arrived
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
The cool and dry air behind the cold front has definitlely arrived. You could feel it as soon as you stepped outside this morning. The fall-like temperatures are a week late, but as I sometimes like to say "better late than never." Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s today, which is about 25 to 30 degrees cooler than yesterday. By the way our high of 102 at Abilene Regional Airport yesterday tied the record high of 102 set back in 1953. Hopefully we have seen the last of the triple digit temperatures for 2005. It will remain breezy today with winds from the north-northeast at 10 to 20 mph.
Tonight will be another cool night with lows in the mid to upper 50s. Winds should begin shifting to the east at 5 to 10 mph. Tomorrow winds shift to the south at 5 to 15 mph. This will help warm us up a little bit with highs in the low to mid 80s, which is what we expect to see this time of year.
There is a 20% chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the northern portions of the viewing area on Friday night. This is due to an upper level low pressure system that will be moving northeast from New Mexico to Kansas. For now, this looks to be the only chance of rain in the area for at least the next five days. Saturday and Sunday look nice with partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 80s.
Enjoy the cooler temperatures today and have a terrific Thursday.
The cool and dry air behind the cold front has definitlely arrived. You could feel it as soon as you stepped outside this morning. The fall-like temperatures are a week late, but as I sometimes like to say "better late than never." Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s today, which is about 25 to 30 degrees cooler than yesterday. By the way our high of 102 at Abilene Regional Airport yesterday tied the record high of 102 set back in 1953. Hopefully we have seen the last of the triple digit temperatures for 2005. It will remain breezy today with winds from the north-northeast at 10 to 20 mph.
Tonight will be another cool night with lows in the mid to upper 50s. Winds should begin shifting to the east at 5 to 10 mph. Tomorrow winds shift to the south at 5 to 15 mph. This will help warm us up a little bit with highs in the low to mid 80s, which is what we expect to see this time of year.
There is a 20% chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the northern portions of the viewing area on Friday night. This is due to an upper level low pressure system that will be moving northeast from New Mexico to Kansas. For now, this looks to be the only chance of rain in the area for at least the next five days. Saturday and Sunday look nice with partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 80s.
Enjoy the cooler temperatures today and have a terrific Thursday.
Wednesday, September 28, 2005
Fall Is Finally Here!
Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi here...
Well, Mother Nature has finally decided to give us a break. The first big cold front of the Fall season has arrived.
R&B joked in a comment that he only went from 99 to 81 in a couple of hours in Sweetwater and it didn't seem very cold. I know you were just kidding R&B, but I want folks to think about that for a minute. I'll use the numbers from Abilene Regional Airport as an example.
At 7:00 p.m. it was 99 degrees at ABI. (ABI is the 3-letter airport identifier code for Abilene Regional Airport) Now, at 9:00 p.m., it is 79 degrees. That's 20 degrees in only two hours. That is a massive amount of cooler air to do that much work, in that short of time. I won't get into physics here, but wow, that's a lot of energy to cool off the air that quickly. Think about coming home from work or school and you've had the air conditioner off all day and your house has warmed up to 85 degrees. You turn the AC on and set it to 75. Depending on the size of your house and the strength of your AC, it generally will take about 30 minutes to cool the house down to 75. Tonight, Mother Nature has turned her AC on and cooled the entire Big Country 20 degrees in just two hours. Even though I've studied it and forecasted it, it's still amazing to see that kind of energy at work.
Incidently, there were calls made to the KRBC newsroom and the Abilene Fire Department tonight about the smell of smoke in the air as the cold front arrived. The front actually blew in smoke and haze from North of Abilene. There were small fires in Hamby and that smoke was carried into the city with the front.
Unfortunately, this cold front will only cool us down for a couple of days. I don't expect to see any 100 degree afternoons anytime soon, but I don't think we've seen our last 90 degree day of 2005 just yet. By Friday afternoon winds will swing back around to the South. That will allow our highs to creep back into the lowers 80s. The weekend looks dry with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
We had mentioned a chance for rain this weekend, unfortunately it looks like we will remain too dry in the lower levers of the atmosphere and more importantly the upper-level disturbance that was going to produce the lift for the showers looks like it will move farther North than earlier expected. There will still be a slim chance for a shower North of IH-20, but not enough of a chance to throw a percentage up on the forecast pages.
Now to a question posted a little while ago...
Eileen said...
Now, how is it calculated into the total precipitation for a year. What I mean is, if we had let's say 26.95 inches of rainfall and 10 inches of snow, how would they come up with the total amount of precipatation for the year.
Depending on the snow type (wet snow, dry snow etc...) the average equation that is used is a 10 to 1 formula. So, your 10 inches of snow would equal 1 inch of water when melted. As before, this is a topic that I could go into detail with, but I'll refer those interested to the website of one of my professors at Mississippi State University, Meteorologist Jeff Haby. At the following link Jeff explains the different "average" equations for the different types of snow. Also, at the bottom of his page, he has a link to a National Weather Service website that will take you into even further detail on the subject. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/346/
That's it for now. I'm off to enjoy the cooler air and the wonderful sound of silence as I shut my air conditioner off for the night!
Craig...
Well, Mother Nature has finally decided to give us a break. The first big cold front of the Fall season has arrived.
R&B joked in a comment that he only went from 99 to 81 in a couple of hours in Sweetwater and it didn't seem very cold. I know you were just kidding R&B, but I want folks to think about that for a minute. I'll use the numbers from Abilene Regional Airport as an example.
At 7:00 p.m. it was 99 degrees at ABI. (ABI is the 3-letter airport identifier code for Abilene Regional Airport) Now, at 9:00 p.m., it is 79 degrees. That's 20 degrees in only two hours. That is a massive amount of cooler air to do that much work, in that short of time. I won't get into physics here, but wow, that's a lot of energy to cool off the air that quickly. Think about coming home from work or school and you've had the air conditioner off all day and your house has warmed up to 85 degrees. You turn the AC on and set it to 75. Depending on the size of your house and the strength of your AC, it generally will take about 30 minutes to cool the house down to 75. Tonight, Mother Nature has turned her AC on and cooled the entire Big Country 20 degrees in just two hours. Even though I've studied it and forecasted it, it's still amazing to see that kind of energy at work.
Incidently, there were calls made to the KRBC newsroom and the Abilene Fire Department tonight about the smell of smoke in the air as the cold front arrived. The front actually blew in smoke and haze from North of Abilene. There were small fires in Hamby and that smoke was carried into the city with the front.
Unfortunately, this cold front will only cool us down for a couple of days. I don't expect to see any 100 degree afternoons anytime soon, but I don't think we've seen our last 90 degree day of 2005 just yet. By Friday afternoon winds will swing back around to the South. That will allow our highs to creep back into the lowers 80s. The weekend looks dry with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
We had mentioned a chance for rain this weekend, unfortunately it looks like we will remain too dry in the lower levers of the atmosphere and more importantly the upper-level disturbance that was going to produce the lift for the showers looks like it will move farther North than earlier expected. There will still be a slim chance for a shower North of IH-20, but not enough of a chance to throw a percentage up on the forecast pages.
Now to a question posted a little while ago...
Eileen said...
Now, how is it calculated into the total precipitation for a year. What I mean is, if we had let's say 26.95 inches of rainfall and 10 inches of snow, how would they come up with the total amount of precipatation for the year.
Depending on the snow type (wet snow, dry snow etc...) the average equation that is used is a 10 to 1 formula. So, your 10 inches of snow would equal 1 inch of water when melted. As before, this is a topic that I could go into detail with, but I'll refer those interested to the website of one of my professors at Mississippi State University, Meteorologist Jeff Haby. At the following link Jeff explains the different "average" equations for the different types of snow. Also, at the bottom of his page, he has a link to a National Weather Service website that will take you into even further detail on the subject. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/346/
That's it for now. I'm off to enjoy the cooler air and the wonderful sound of silence as I shut my air conditioner off for the night!
Craig...
The Front Is Coming... I Promise...
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
So allow me to go on a little rant here if you don't mind... One of the toughest parts of forecasting for me is trying to rely on my gut instinct a little more. If you'll remember Monday night I was calling for high today (Wednesday) of 101 degrees. Well, Tuesday some of the computer models had backed off of the 100 temperatures and advertised the cold front arriving in time to prevent that from happening. I checked the progress of the cold front and thought there was a distinct possiblilty that the front would arrive in time to keep us from scorching too bad. I still thought that areas South of IH-20 would break the century mark.
Fast forward to the current, 3:00p.m., it's 99 in Sweetwater, 101 at Abilene Regional, 102 at Dyess and 102 in Brownwood. The cold front is coming, make no mistake about that, it's currently 66 in Amarillo with a North wind at 26 mph gusting to 33mph.
This is just another example for myself to follow my gut instinct. I know, some folks would say the difference between the 97 I forecasted for Wednesday, Tuesday night, is not that far off from where we are now, but it just stings a little to know I had it before, but now am off.
I just wanted to let you know how seriously us meteorologists take our forecasts, when we are off, it bothers us. A lot of people will tell us that they wish they had a job where they could be wrong and still get a paycheck. Well, we do everything in our power to not be wrong, but Mother Nature has a mind of her own and "outwits" every now and again.
On to a couple of questions/comments...
Eileen said...
Since the cold weather is on the way, I have a question about how snow is measured. Since it is in a different form of precipatation how is it calculated into inches?
To answer your question Eileen, there are a few different ways to "officialy" measure snow. Unfortunately, I don't think we'll be using any of these methods for at least of a couple of more months though at the earliest. The National Weather Service in Milwaukee has a great website that explains the techniques they use. The web site is http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/measure-snow.htm.
Here in Abilene, the National Weather Service uses what is known as an ASOS station at the Regional Airport for weather observations. Automated Surface Observing System is what the acronym stands for. The system uses a number of different methods to measure snow and all other weather measurements. For snow specifically, the system uses a light sensor to measure how much snow is falling. The main drawback of using these light sensors is, if the surface temperature is above freezing, the snow is melting on its way down. But, if there is snow on the ground already, the water will re-freeze. When this happens, the National Weather Service will use manual observations, as mentioned above from Milwaukee, to measure snow depth.
Here at KRBC, we try to set out a piece of plywood before a snowfall, and use an old fashioned ruler to measure how much snow sticks.
Amber Lawbyrd said...
I just wanted to thank you so much for setting up this blog. I love reading your insights and more detailed comments about the weather. I also like being able to check in, even when I am not near a television set. Very cool!
Thanks Amber! Your comments are exactly why we created the blog... Well, what you said, and the fact that we can't convince management to let us have the entire 30 minutes of a newscast so we can go into these details on the air!!! We'll win that battle eventually!
I'll post back here later... Now I'm off to beating myself up once again as I watch the thermometer rise.
Craig...
So allow me to go on a little rant here if you don't mind... One of the toughest parts of forecasting for me is trying to rely on my gut instinct a little more. If you'll remember Monday night I was calling for high today (Wednesday) of 101 degrees. Well, Tuesday some of the computer models had backed off of the 100 temperatures and advertised the cold front arriving in time to prevent that from happening. I checked the progress of the cold front and thought there was a distinct possiblilty that the front would arrive in time to keep us from scorching too bad. I still thought that areas South of IH-20 would break the century mark.
Fast forward to the current, 3:00p.m., it's 99 in Sweetwater, 101 at Abilene Regional, 102 at Dyess and 102 in Brownwood. The cold front is coming, make no mistake about that, it's currently 66 in Amarillo with a North wind at 26 mph gusting to 33mph.
This is just another example for myself to follow my gut instinct. I know, some folks would say the difference between the 97 I forecasted for Wednesday, Tuesday night, is not that far off from where we are now, but it just stings a little to know I had it before, but now am off.
I just wanted to let you know how seriously us meteorologists take our forecasts, when we are off, it bothers us. A lot of people will tell us that they wish they had a job where they could be wrong and still get a paycheck. Well, we do everything in our power to not be wrong, but Mother Nature has a mind of her own and "outwits" every now and again.
On to a couple of questions/comments...
Eileen said...
Since the cold weather is on the way, I have a question about how snow is measured. Since it is in a different form of precipatation how is it calculated into inches?
To answer your question Eileen, there are a few different ways to "officialy" measure snow. Unfortunately, I don't think we'll be using any of these methods for at least of a couple of more months though at the earliest. The National Weather Service in Milwaukee has a great website that explains the techniques they use. The web site is http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/measure-snow.htm.
Here in Abilene, the National Weather Service uses what is known as an ASOS station at the Regional Airport for weather observations. Automated Surface Observing System is what the acronym stands for. The system uses a number of different methods to measure snow and all other weather measurements. For snow specifically, the system uses a light sensor to measure how much snow is falling. The main drawback of using these light sensors is, if the surface temperature is above freezing, the snow is melting on its way down. But, if there is snow on the ground already, the water will re-freeze. When this happens, the National Weather Service will use manual observations, as mentioned above from Milwaukee, to measure snow depth.
Here at KRBC, we try to set out a piece of plywood before a snowfall, and use an old fashioned ruler to measure how much snow sticks.
Amber Lawbyrd said...
I just wanted to thank you so much for setting up this blog. I love reading your insights and more detailed comments about the weather. I also like being able to check in, even when I am not near a television set. Very cool!
Thanks Amber! Your comments are exactly why we created the blog... Well, what you said, and the fact that we can't convince management to let us have the entire 30 minutes of a newscast so we can go into these details on the air!!! We'll win that battle eventually!
I'll post back here later... Now I'm off to beating myself up once again as I watch the thermometer rise.
Craig...
Cooler Temperatures Are Almost Here
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
For those of you who love the really hot weather, enjoy today because much cooler weather will be here soon. There will be a range of temperatures across the area depending on when the cold front arrives later today. Most of us should see highs in the upper 90s, however those of you in the north and northwestern portions of the viewing area will likely see highs in the low to mid 90s. In the southeastern portions of the viewing area near Brownwood and Comanche you should see highs in the triple digits. Winds will begin from the southwest and then shift to the northwest behind the front and should be about 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight, lows are expected to be in the mid to upper 50s with a slight chance of a stray shower or thunderstorm. Rain chances are only slight due to a lack of moisture. Winds will be the main story tonight. They should pick up from the north-northeast at about 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected, so be aware if you are going to be out and about tonight.
Tomorrow, highs should be in the mid to upper 70s with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Breezy conditions are expected to remain with winds from the north-northeast at 10 to 20 mph.
Temperatures look to rebound for Friday through Sunday. Highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s. Models that were indicating a possible disturbance in the area have shifted the track to the north, so I have decreased our chances of rain this weekend to slight for now.
For those of you who love the really hot weather, enjoy today because much cooler weather will be here soon. There will be a range of temperatures across the area depending on when the cold front arrives later today. Most of us should see highs in the upper 90s, however those of you in the north and northwestern portions of the viewing area will likely see highs in the low to mid 90s. In the southeastern portions of the viewing area near Brownwood and Comanche you should see highs in the triple digits. Winds will begin from the southwest and then shift to the northwest behind the front and should be about 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight, lows are expected to be in the mid to upper 50s with a slight chance of a stray shower or thunderstorm. Rain chances are only slight due to a lack of moisture. Winds will be the main story tonight. They should pick up from the north-northeast at about 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected, so be aware if you are going to be out and about tonight.
Tomorrow, highs should be in the mid to upper 70s with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Breezy conditions are expected to remain with winds from the north-northeast at 10 to 20 mph.
Temperatures look to rebound for Friday through Sunday. Highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s. Models that were indicating a possible disturbance in the area have shifted the track to the north, so I have decreased our chances of rain this weekend to slight for now.
Tuesday, September 27, 2005
Hold On To Your Hats
Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi here...
Echoing Brandon's sentiments below, relief is on the way. Mother Nature is going to make sure you know it too. First we will have to deal with one more afternoon in the mid to upper 90s.
A tight pressure gradient ahead and behind the cold front is going to be responsible for winds sustained anywhere between 15-25 miles per hour starting as early as Thursday evening from Knox County down to Scurry County. Wind gusts could run up to 40-45 miles per hour at times.
As Brandon mentioned, there will be a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. The only problem this time around is that we just haven't gotten a whole lot of moisture back in the lower and middle layers of the atmosphere. That could change later in the week.
My main forecast concern right now will deal with afternoon high temperatures. Models generally have a hard time dealing with these early season cold fronts and try to warm us up a little too quickly after a front passes. Right now it looks like temperature will be back into the lower to middle 80s by Friday. But, I would not be surprised to see at least one more day of 70s for highs on Friday.
That change I mentioned later in the week is an upper level disturbance that looks like might make it to the Big Country by Saturday and Sunday. If we have enough moisture by then, we may see a better chance of being able to squeeze out a few showers and thunderstorms.
For now, hot weather lovers, enjoy your last day of 90-degree heat for awhile Wednesday... Fall weather lovers, hold on one more day, the front is coming!
Craig...
Echoing Brandon's sentiments below, relief is on the way. Mother Nature is going to make sure you know it too. First we will have to deal with one more afternoon in the mid to upper 90s.
A tight pressure gradient ahead and behind the cold front is going to be responsible for winds sustained anywhere between 15-25 miles per hour starting as early as Thursday evening from Knox County down to Scurry County. Wind gusts could run up to 40-45 miles per hour at times.
As Brandon mentioned, there will be a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. The only problem this time around is that we just haven't gotten a whole lot of moisture back in the lower and middle layers of the atmosphere. That could change later in the week.
My main forecast concern right now will deal with afternoon high temperatures. Models generally have a hard time dealing with these early season cold fronts and try to warm us up a little too quickly after a front passes. Right now it looks like temperature will be back into the lower to middle 80s by Friday. But, I would not be surprised to see at least one more day of 70s for highs on Friday.
That change I mentioned later in the week is an upper level disturbance that looks like might make it to the Big Country by Saturday and Sunday. If we have enough moisture by then, we may see a better chance of being able to squeeze out a few showers and thunderstorms.
For now, hot weather lovers, enjoy your last day of 90-degree heat for awhile Wednesday... Fall weather lovers, hold on one more day, the front is coming!
Craig...
The Heat Continues, But Relief May Be On The Way
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
A cold front moved through the area yesterday, which kept us from reaching the triple digits like we did on Sunday. It was still hot with highs mainly in the 90s across the Big Country. Temperatures for today will be similar to yesterday with highs expected to be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Tomorrow, temperatures should be even hotter with highs reaching the upper 90s and possibly the century mark in a few places. Our first bonafide cold front of the fall season is expected to arrive Wednesday night. Temperatures will be much cooler with highs mainly in the upper 70s on Thursday. There is also a 20% chance of rain with the front. Highs for Friday and Saturday should be in the mid to upper 80s which is slightly above average for this time of this year. Another disturbance may arrive on Friday night or Saturday, which will give us another 20% chance of showers or thunderstorms.
A cold front moved through the area yesterday, which kept us from reaching the triple digits like we did on Sunday. It was still hot with highs mainly in the 90s across the Big Country. Temperatures for today will be similar to yesterday with highs expected to be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Tomorrow, temperatures should be even hotter with highs reaching the upper 90s and possibly the century mark in a few places. Our first bonafide cold front of the fall season is expected to arrive Wednesday night. Temperatures will be much cooler with highs mainly in the upper 70s on Thursday. There is also a 20% chance of rain with the front. Highs for Friday and Saturday should be in the mid to upper 80s which is slightly above average for this time of this year. Another disturbance may arrive on Friday night or Saturday, which will give us another 20% chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Monday, September 26, 2005
Cold Front Passed, But It's Still Hot!
Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi with you on this fine Monday afternoon...
We finally got a little relief today in the form of a dry cold front. In Abilene we've topped out today at 91 so far, much better than yesterday's 104. (For more on yesterday's heat, scroll down to my earlier posting.) Snyder and Sweetwater only made it into the upper 80s as of 4:30 p.m.
I wish I could say we are done with the 100s, but unfortunately we are not. Wednesday's highs should climb back into the 100s, and we may even see a repeat of Sunday with highs in the 100-108 range. This is all in advance of another cold front, but this front will have much more of a punch than the last one. Highs across the Big Country will be lucky to make it to 80 after the front arrives Wednesday night. There's also a 20% chance of a few isolated showers or thunderstorms as this front passes. The moisture has been much quicker to return this time around than with this last front.
There won't be enough rain to end our deficit for 2005, but anything will help. I'll talk more specifics about how far we are behind rain wise during the news at 6:00 p.m. tonight.
As always, feel free to post all questions and comments here or send me an e-mail, ccarnesi@krbc.tv. I'll post here again later...
We finally got a little relief today in the form of a dry cold front. In Abilene we've topped out today at 91 so far, much better than yesterday's 104. (For more on yesterday's heat, scroll down to my earlier posting.) Snyder and Sweetwater only made it into the upper 80s as of 4:30 p.m.
I wish I could say we are done with the 100s, but unfortunately we are not. Wednesday's highs should climb back into the 100s, and we may even see a repeat of Sunday with highs in the 100-108 range. This is all in advance of another cold front, but this front will have much more of a punch than the last one. Highs across the Big Country will be lucky to make it to 80 after the front arrives Wednesday night. There's also a 20% chance of a few isolated showers or thunderstorms as this front passes. The moisture has been much quicker to return this time around than with this last front.
There won't be enough rain to end our deficit for 2005, but anything will help. I'll talk more specifics about how far we are behind rain wise during the news at 6:00 p.m. tonight.
As always, feel free to post all questions and comments here or send me an e-mail, ccarnesi@krbc.tv. I'll post here again later...
Sunday, September 25, 2005
H-O-T !
Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi here...
So, technically I was right this morning when I said we would not set a record high today, but boy, was I close to REALLY being wrong.
We tied the record of 104 degrees today that as set in 1977. Other notable highs today:
108 at Dyess
100 at Sweetwater
106 in Brownwood
105 in San Angelo
99 in Snyder
*San Antonio broke a record of 97 set in 1993 by reaching 105
*Austin shattered their old record of 97 set in 1956 with a high today of 108
*Del Rio broke their record of 105 set in 1977 with a high today of 107
*Lubbock broke their record of 97 in1977 with a high today of 100
*Dallas-Fort Worth Airport broke their record of 100 in 1931 with a high of 102
The good news is that a cold front is progressing into Scurry and Stonewall counties at this hour and cooler temperatures are coming. Monday's afternoon highs will be lucky to make it into the 90s. And as I mentioned earlier, another, stronger cold front will arrive Wednesday into Thursday.
So, technically I was right this morning when I said we would not set a record high today, but boy, was I close to REALLY being wrong.
We tied the record of 104 degrees today that as set in 1977. Other notable highs today:
108 at Dyess
100 at Sweetwater
106 in Brownwood
105 in San Angelo
99 in Snyder
*San Antonio broke a record of 97 set in 1993 by reaching 105
*Austin shattered their old record of 97 set in 1956 with a high today of 108
*Del Rio broke their record of 105 set in 1977 with a high today of 107
*Lubbock broke their record of 97 in1977 with a high today of 100
*Dallas-Fort Worth Airport broke their record of 100 in 1931 with a high of 102
The good news is that a cold front is progressing into Scurry and Stonewall counties at this hour and cooler temperatures are coming. Monday's afternoon highs will be lucky to make it into the 90s. And as I mentioned earlier, another, stronger cold front will arrive Wednesday into Thursday.
Fall Weather Is Coming...
...the only problem is we have to deal with Summer weather for a few more days. Good Sunday morning, Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi here with a quick update before I'm off to see if my Chicago Bears were just a fluke last week with their win over the Lions. I'm sure there will be more comments on that later.
Cayden gets paid for sports, so I better start talking weather. Highs across the Big Country today are going be hot. The record today for Abilene is 104 degrees set in 1977. I don't see us breaking that record, but I could easily see us breaking 100, and that goes for the rest of the Big Country as well. Abundant sunshine, drier than normal air and Southwesterly winds, if you are going to be outdoors, fins some shade and remember to drink plenty of fluids and take frequent breaks.
Now, the good news, cold Canadian air is building up just North of the US boarder and it wants to move. And indeed it will beginning Monday for the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies. In fact, it looks like some of the Rockies could see some of their first significant snows of the fall season. It's going to take that cold air a couple of days to work down here, and of course it will modify (warm) on it's way here. First, we will see a weak cold front push through Monday that will knock our afternoon highs back down to the low 90s. Then we wait for Wednesday night. This will be the front that will finally allow you turn your air conditioner off at night. Right now it looks like Thursday and Friday could struggle to reach 80 degrees for highs and lows should fall into the mid to upper 50s.
That's it for now, kickoff is just under an hour away. I figured since the Cowboy's aren't playing until 3:00 p.m. this week, it may be safe to proclaim my fandom of the Bears in a public forum.
Please, go out and make it a GREAT Sunday!
Cayden gets paid for sports, so I better start talking weather. Highs across the Big Country today are going be hot. The record today for Abilene is 104 degrees set in 1977. I don't see us breaking that record, but I could easily see us breaking 100, and that goes for the rest of the Big Country as well. Abundant sunshine, drier than normal air and Southwesterly winds, if you are going to be outdoors, fins some shade and remember to drink plenty of fluids and take frequent breaks.
Now, the good news, cold Canadian air is building up just North of the US boarder and it wants to move. And indeed it will beginning Monday for the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies. In fact, it looks like some of the Rockies could see some of their first significant snows of the fall season. It's going to take that cold air a couple of days to work down here, and of course it will modify (warm) on it's way here. First, we will see a weak cold front push through Monday that will knock our afternoon highs back down to the low 90s. Then we wait for Wednesday night. This will be the front that will finally allow you turn your air conditioner off at night. Right now it looks like Thursday and Friday could struggle to reach 80 degrees for highs and lows should fall into the mid to upper 50s.
That's it for now, kickoff is just under an hour away. I figured since the Cowboy's aren't playing until 3:00 p.m. this week, it may be safe to proclaim my fandom of the Bears in a public forum.
Please, go out and make it a GREAT Sunday!
Saturday, September 24, 2005
Rita is now a Tropical Depression
Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi here with you on a Saturday night...
The final public advisory has been issued on Rita less than 24 hours after she made landfall as a major hurricane on the Texas/Louisiana coastlines. Once a storm weakens to this extent the National Hurricane Center no longer issues updates on a storm system. Here is the final update from the NHC:
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 40 MILES NORTH OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUALTURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS.LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
What happens next?
The latest run of computer models have now dropped the idea I mentioned earlier today of bringing Rita back to the South and West and emerging her into the Gulf of Mexico and re-forming as a Tropical Storm. (a la Ivan last year) If you'll scroll down you'll read how I though this was a very unlikely scenario. But, like any good meteorologist, I covered my bases by mentioning it as a possibility. Now it looks like Rita will either dissipate completely or become an extra-tropical cyclone be absorbed and carried away by the upper level winds.
Elsewhere in the tropics there are no other active named storms. But remember, the Atlantic Tropical Hurricane Season runs until November 30th. I do not believe we are anywhere near finished with tropical systems for 2005.
The blog will continue from here. In the next couple of days we will switch from talking only about Rita, to talking in depth about our weather in the Big Country. If you have a question, comment, complaint, etc. Please post it here on the blog or e-mail me at ccarnesi@krbc.tv. We will answer your questions here for all to read.
The final public advisory has been issued on Rita less than 24 hours after she made landfall as a major hurricane on the Texas/Louisiana coastlines. Once a storm weakens to this extent the National Hurricane Center no longer issues updates on a storm system. Here is the final update from the NHC:
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 40 MILES NORTH OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUALTURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS.LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
What happens next?
The latest run of computer models have now dropped the idea I mentioned earlier today of bringing Rita back to the South and West and emerging her into the Gulf of Mexico and re-forming as a Tropical Storm. (a la Ivan last year) If you'll scroll down you'll read how I though this was a very unlikely scenario. But, like any good meteorologist, I covered my bases by mentioning it as a possibility. Now it looks like Rita will either dissipate completely or become an extra-tropical cyclone be absorbed and carried away by the upper level winds.
Elsewhere in the tropics there are no other active named storms. But remember, the Atlantic Tropical Hurricane Season runs until November 30th. I do not believe we are anywhere near finished with tropical systems for 2005.
The blog will continue from here. In the next couple of days we will switch from talking only about Rita, to talking in depth about our weather in the Big Country. If you have a question, comment, complaint, etc. Please post it here on the blog or e-mail me at ccarnesi@krbc.tv. We will answer your questions here for all to read.
4:00 p.m. NHC Advisory
Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi here taking a break from college football to update you on Tropical Storm Rita. (After all, it technically is my day off!)
Rita continues to weaken but still continues to bring gusty winds to the Big Country. There is no question now that the KRBC-9 viewing area will remain dry. We have received a little benefit from Rita. Because of the size of Rita and the tight pressure gradient surround the low pressure center, we are feeling winds out of the North running from 10-20 miles per hour, and gusting up to 30 mph. Drier air is also continuing to filter in keeping relative humidity values running anywhere from 19% to 40%. This drier air combined with clear skies should allow temperatures to drop off nicely after sunset tonight.
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES TO THESOUTH OF THE CENTER.ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
THE COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY. HOWEVER... TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTS IN AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA COULD BE 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES... AND RESIDENTS THERE ARE EXPERIENCING COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OFTHE GULF COAST.
RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE PATH OF THE STORM FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
Rita continues to weaken but still continues to bring gusty winds to the Big Country. There is no question now that the KRBC-9 viewing area will remain dry. We have received a little benefit from Rita. Because of the size of Rita and the tight pressure gradient surround the low pressure center, we are feeling winds out of the North running from 10-20 miles per hour, and gusting up to 30 mph. Drier air is also continuing to filter in keeping relative humidity values running anywhere from 19% to 40%. This drier air combined with clear skies should allow temperatures to drop off nicely after sunset tonight.
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES TO THESOUTH OF THE CENTER.ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
THE COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY. HOWEVER... TIDES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTS IN AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA COULD BE 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES... AND RESIDENTS THERE ARE EXPERIENCING COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OFTHE GULF COAST.
RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE PATH OF THE STORM FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
Where does Rita go now? 2:00 p.m., SAT
Craig here...
First, the good news. Rita is now only a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Even better news, she's still moving to the North at 12 mph. When I went to sleep last night my fear was that I would wake up and see what I had forecasted, Rita stalling out in East Texas and beginning to dump heavy rain. She's still producing flooding rains, but she's moving. That's the best news.
Now the question becomes, where does she go from here? Well, we've talked a lot lately about computer models, so let's not stop now. The latest models now take Rita through central Arkansas and into Mississippi by Monday. After that, well, things go in different directions.
Some dissipate the storm completely, which is the best case scenario. Others try to turn Rita into another Ivan. They take the storm back South and Southwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Regenerate her as a Tropical Storm, and then she makes another landfall in the Coastal Bend or Rio Grande Valley. I personally find this scenario very unlikely, but possible. (Man, that's a statement to cover my tail in case it happens.) The reason I say it's unlikely is this, all week the models had a hard time deciding what to do with Rita once she made landfall, but for a time, consistently, they took into the Ark-La-Tex region, then bounced her back toward Central and West Texas. Obviously, that is not going to happen now. Then the models took her into the Ark-La-Tex region, and bounched her back towards the Houston-Galveston area. Again, appears that is not going to happen because Rita is continuing to move at 12 mph. So now, do you really trust these computer models in the long term when they try to turn this system back out into the Gulf of Mexico and make her back into a Tropical Storm again? No way, not yet. For this forecaster I'm going to need to see this storm at least start to make a turn Monday-Tuesday to the South before I'll buy into that theory.
Then again, stranger things can and do happen with weather everyday, and that's why I love my job so much.
Back to our weather for a moment. With Rita continuing her speed and eventual turn to the east, it looks like our afternoon highs will be a tad higher than I forecasted Friday. I was calling for 90-91 this weekend, but we're going to have to bump those numbers up to 95-97 for Saturday-Sunday. I was hoping for more cloud cover from Rita but that's just not going to happen.
A cold front still looks very good to arrive into the Big Country Wednesday night. If all goes as planned, we should see at least a couple of mornings with lows into the upper 50s and afternoons with highs only in the lower 80s.
First, the good news. Rita is now only a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Even better news, she's still moving to the North at 12 mph. When I went to sleep last night my fear was that I would wake up and see what I had forecasted, Rita stalling out in East Texas and beginning to dump heavy rain. She's still producing flooding rains, but she's moving. That's the best news.
Now the question becomes, where does she go from here? Well, we've talked a lot lately about computer models, so let's not stop now. The latest models now take Rita through central Arkansas and into Mississippi by Monday. After that, well, things go in different directions.
Some dissipate the storm completely, which is the best case scenario. Others try to turn Rita into another Ivan. They take the storm back South and Southwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Regenerate her as a Tropical Storm, and then she makes another landfall in the Coastal Bend or Rio Grande Valley. I personally find this scenario very unlikely, but possible. (Man, that's a statement to cover my tail in case it happens.) The reason I say it's unlikely is this, all week the models had a hard time deciding what to do with Rita once she made landfall, but for a time, consistently, they took into the Ark-La-Tex region, then bounced her back toward Central and West Texas. Obviously, that is not going to happen now. Then the models took her into the Ark-La-Tex region, and bounched her back towards the Houston-Galveston area. Again, appears that is not going to happen because Rita is continuing to move at 12 mph. So now, do you really trust these computer models in the long term when they try to turn this system back out into the Gulf of Mexico and make her back into a Tropical Storm again? No way, not yet. For this forecaster I'm going to need to see this storm at least start to make a turn Monday-Tuesday to the South before I'll buy into that theory.
Then again, stranger things can and do happen with weather everyday, and that's why I love my job so much.
Back to our weather for a moment. With Rita continuing her speed and eventual turn to the east, it looks like our afternoon highs will be a tad higher than I forecasted Friday. I was calling for 90-91 this weekend, but we're going to have to bump those numbers up to 95-97 for Saturday-Sunday. I was hoping for more cloud cover from Rita but that's just not going to happen.
A cold front still looks very good to arrive into the Big Country Wednesday night. If all goes as planned, we should see at least a couple of mornings with lows into the upper 50s and afternoons with highs only in the lower 80s.
4 a.m. Advisory and Thoughts
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
Rita has made landfall and from this point the focus on this storm will shift from the strong winds and storm surge, to the potential of devastating inland flooding. In recent years inland flooding has become the leading cause of loss of life with tropical systems. As daybreak approaches, new video in the from Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana will tell the story of how strong Hurricane Rita really was. Beginning at 6:00 a.m. on KRBC-9, NBC will begin coverage of Rita with the Saturday edition of "The Today Show."
The most recent computer models as of 4:30 a.m. continue to stall Rita out in the Ark-La-Tex region over the next 48 hours. After that, the models split. Half either keep her stalled and dissapating, the other half move her remnants back to the south and west in South and Southeast Texas. For this, only time will tell. These will be my last thoughts for tonight, but I will update the blog throughout the weekend starting Saturday morning.
For now, here is the 4:00 a.m. advisory on Rita from the National Hurricane Center:
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST OR NEAR PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF RITA FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY.
REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES RITA A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. RITA SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THECENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.
AN INSTRUMENTED TOWER IN PORT ARTHUR RUN BY THE FLORIDA COASTAL MONITORING PROGRAM HAS JUST REPORTED SUSTAINEDWINDS OF 91 MPH WITH A GUST TO 116 MPH.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS JUSTBEFORE LANDFALL WAS 937 MB...27.67 INCHES. THE AUTOMATED STATION AT SEA RIM STATE PARK TEXAS RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 951.3 MB...28.09 INCHES.
Rita has made landfall and from this point the focus on this storm will shift from the strong winds and storm surge, to the potential of devastating inland flooding. In recent years inland flooding has become the leading cause of loss of life with tropical systems. As daybreak approaches, new video in the from Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana will tell the story of how strong Hurricane Rita really was. Beginning at 6:00 a.m. on KRBC-9, NBC will begin coverage of Rita with the Saturday edition of "The Today Show."
The most recent computer models as of 4:30 a.m. continue to stall Rita out in the Ark-La-Tex region over the next 48 hours. After that, the models split. Half either keep her stalled and dissapating, the other half move her remnants back to the south and west in South and Southeast Texas. For this, only time will tell. These will be my last thoughts for tonight, but I will update the blog throughout the weekend starting Saturday morning.
For now, here is the 4:00 a.m. advisory on Rita from the National Hurricane Center:
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST OR NEAR PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF RITA FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY.
REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES RITA A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. RITA SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THECENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.
AN INSTRUMENTED TOWER IN PORT ARTHUR RUN BY THE FLORIDA COASTAL MONITORING PROGRAM HAS JUST REPORTED SUSTAINEDWINDS OF 91 MPH WITH A GUST TO 116 MPH.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS JUSTBEFORE LANDFALL WAS 937 MB...27.67 INCHES. THE AUTOMATED STATION AT SEA RIM STATE PARK TEXAS RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 951.3 MB...28.09 INCHES.
Rita Makes Landfall
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi....
The National Hurricane Center has officially stated that Hurricane Rita made landfall at 2:30 a.m. CDT. Landfall is officially "ON THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST COAST OF LOUISIANA BETWEEN SABINE PASS AND JOHNSON'S BAYOU." Rita made landfall as a category 3 hurricane with sustained winds near 120 mph and higher gusts.
The National Hurricane Center has officially stated that Hurricane Rita made landfall at 2:30 a.m. CDT. Landfall is officially "ON THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST COAST OF LOUISIANA BETWEEN SABINE PASS AND JOHNSON'S BAYOU." Rita made landfall as a category 3 hurricane with sustained winds near 120 mph and higher gusts.
Friday, September 23, 2005
Updated Discussion From NHC
RITA IS APPROACHING THE COAST ALONG A SLIGHTLY WOBBLY HEADING OF 325 DEGREES AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS... JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. ASIDE FROM THE COMMONLY OBSERVED WOBBLES... THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL... FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BEYOND THEN... THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OF A STALL OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... AS RITA WILL LIKELY BECOME TRAPPED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CELLS TO ITS EAST AND WEST. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS WELL INLAND AND FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER LANDFALL.
10 p.m. NHC Postion Statement
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 90KM... SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE GULF COAST AT THETEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UPTO 205 MILES...335 KM. A WIND GUST TO 74 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UPTO 205 MILES...335 KM. A WIND GUST TO 74 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA.
E-Mail Question
I'm still fairly new at blogging, but I received a request for an updated radar image. You can see that at this link http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/images/DS.p19r0/SI.klch/latest.gif And you should see the same image above. This image is courtesy of The National Weather Service.Here is a question I received via e-mail a few minutes ago:
What is the likelyhood that Rita will change direction once the wall strenghtens and move further west toward Galveston?
As of right now, I am currently looking at updated model imagery coming in tonight, and this is a distinct possibilty. I spoke earlier on-air that it appeared that another eyewall replacement cycle was taking shape and it appears that indeed is occurring.
With that, most times there is some sort of jog or wobble in another direction when the outter wall finally takes over and replaces the inner wall. The question remains, which direction will the jog or wobble go? For that, only time will tell... If that jog moves west, Galveston once again could take a close to direct hit. But, with the movement of the storm thus far, Sabine Pass and Port Arthur-Beaumont will feel the worst of the storm surge even with that jog or wobble.
The next update from the National Hurricane Center is expected sometime within the next half an hour.
The follow statement was released by the city of Abilene this afternoon. There's good information here if anyone knows someone displaced and needs a place to go.
ABILENE, Texas – The latest information provided to the City of Abilene Emergency Management office is that approximately least 400 Hurricane Rita evacuees left the Lufkin, Texas, area in buses sometime between about 12:30 p.m. today, Sept. 23, en route to Abilene.
The City of Abilene/Red Cross mass care shelter that was opened yesterday at the G.V. Daniels Recreation Center, 541 North 8th Street (corner of North 8th and Treadaway), will be used to receive these evacuees, along with an additional shelter that has now been set up at the Sears Park Recreation Center, 2250 Ambler. All Rita evacuees needing shelter are asked to initially report to the G.V. Daniels Center to register for assistance or to telephone 2-1-1 Texas A Call for Help.
8:00 p.m. NHC Advisory
Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi here again with the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
My current thinking still remains the same that the eye of Hurricane Rita will make landfall after midnight somewhere between the Sabine Pass and south of Lake Charles, LA. At Rita's current speed she would make landfall somewhere around 4:00 a.m. Saturday morning. There will be a lot of fluctuation with her speed between now and then so you can safely bet that landfall will occur between 2:00 a.m. and 6:00 a.m.
Conditions are continuing to deteriate across the entire area of concern at this hour with winds generally sustained anywhere from 25 to 40 miles per hour, with gusts ranging from 40 to 60 miles per hour. Showers and thunderstorms are continuing to pound the coastline as well.
I'll be back to update any questions you have when they come in and the next update is expected in from the Hurricane Center at 10:00 p.m.
Here are the 10:00 p.m. numbers:
AT 8 PM CDT...0100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE COAST AT THE BORDER BETWEEN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS NEAR DAYBREAKSATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL... BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS ADANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND AS FAR AS 100 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF RITA.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.
My current thinking still remains the same that the eye of Hurricane Rita will make landfall after midnight somewhere between the Sabine Pass and south of Lake Charles, LA. At Rita's current speed she would make landfall somewhere around 4:00 a.m. Saturday morning. There will be a lot of fluctuation with her speed between now and then so you can safely bet that landfall will occur between 2:00 a.m. and 6:00 a.m.
Conditions are continuing to deteriate across the entire area of concern at this hour with winds generally sustained anywhere from 25 to 40 miles per hour, with gusts ranging from 40 to 60 miles per hour. Showers and thunderstorms are continuing to pound the coastline as well.
I'll be back to update any questions you have when they come in and the next update is expected in from the Hurricane Center at 10:00 p.m.
Here are the 10:00 p.m. numbers:
AT 8 PM CDT...0100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE COAST AT THE BORDER BETWEEN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS NEAR DAYBREAKSATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL... BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS ADANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND AS FAR AS 100 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF RITA.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.
7:30 p.m. Thoughts and Q&A
Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi here...
I wanted to take a couple of questions here and respond as best I can with the current conditions and forecast track thinking as of 7:30 p.m.
Zack said...
Craig - I have family in Kilgore, near Tyler, and last I heard, they are expected to recieve up to 25 inches of rain. Please keep all of us with family in East Texas up to date as to the situation back home. Thanks for your great coverage on KRBC and here on the web!
Zack... My current thinking is that your family, and anywhere else in East Texas for that matter certainly does have the potential of 25 inches of rain. My thoughts are that anywhere from 10 to 30 inches will be possible depending on the final position of Rita in East Texas. I do beleive the storm will stall for at 24-36 hours. During this time, rainfall amounts will rely heavily on exactly where the center of the storm stalls. The heaviest rainfall totals will be on the eastern side of the low pressure circulation. On the Western side there will still be heavy rain, but we're talking more on the order of 5-10 inches. Judging from the latest computer models I've seen, the models stall the storm out in the Ark-La-Tex region. I think that is a little too far North, and I think the storm will stall closer to Tyler. This would definately put your family in the area to receive the higher rainfall totals. Rest assured, your family and everyone else's in East Texas are in the thought and prayers of everyone in West Texas and across the Nation.
R&B said...
Thanks, Craig for setting up the weather blog!I followed Katrina almost entirely in the "new media" blogosphere, so I'm thinkin' ya'll are really being forward thinking here.
R&B... I gotta tell you, that was exactly my thinking as well. With every major news or weather event across the country, there is either a new "star" born, or a new way to deliver information. When discussing KRBC's coverage, we immediately decided this blog would be a key component of our coverage of Hurricane Rita. I personally love being able to get into more details than we normally have time to during a newscasts. Thanks R&B for the pat on the back!
If you have any questions for myself, Downing Bolls or Kyna Grigsby, feel free to comment here on the blog, or e-mail me at ccarnesi@krbc.tv and we will answer those questions as quickly as we possibly can.
The next position and strength update from the National Hurricane Center is due in to the Triple Doppler Weather Center around 8:00 p.m. CDT. I'll post again shortly after that.
I wanted to take a couple of questions here and respond as best I can with the current conditions and forecast track thinking as of 7:30 p.m.
Zack said...
Craig - I have family in Kilgore, near Tyler, and last I heard, they are expected to recieve up to 25 inches of rain. Please keep all of us with family in East Texas up to date as to the situation back home. Thanks for your great coverage on KRBC and here on the web!
Zack... My current thinking is that your family, and anywhere else in East Texas for that matter certainly does have the potential of 25 inches of rain. My thoughts are that anywhere from 10 to 30 inches will be possible depending on the final position of Rita in East Texas. I do beleive the storm will stall for at 24-36 hours. During this time, rainfall amounts will rely heavily on exactly where the center of the storm stalls. The heaviest rainfall totals will be on the eastern side of the low pressure circulation. On the Western side there will still be heavy rain, but we're talking more on the order of 5-10 inches. Judging from the latest computer models I've seen, the models stall the storm out in the Ark-La-Tex region. I think that is a little too far North, and I think the storm will stall closer to Tyler. This would definately put your family in the area to receive the higher rainfall totals. Rest assured, your family and everyone else's in East Texas are in the thought and prayers of everyone in West Texas and across the Nation.
R&B said...
Thanks, Craig for setting up the weather blog!I followed Katrina almost entirely in the "new media" blogosphere, so I'm thinkin' ya'll are really being forward thinking here.
R&B... I gotta tell you, that was exactly my thinking as well. With every major news or weather event across the country, there is either a new "star" born, or a new way to deliver information. When discussing KRBC's coverage, we immediately decided this blog would be a key component of our coverage of Hurricane Rita. I personally love being able to get into more details than we normally have time to during a newscasts. Thanks R&B for the pat on the back!
If you have any questions for myself, Downing Bolls or Kyna Grigsby, feel free to comment here on the blog, or e-mail me at ccarnesi@krbc.tv and we will answer those questions as quickly as we possibly can.
The next position and strength update from the National Hurricane Center is due in to the Triple Doppler Weather Center around 8:00 p.m. CDT. I'll post again shortly after that.
4:00 p.m. Thoughts & NHC Update
Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi here...
As of 4:00p.m. Hurricane Rita has been downgraded to a catagory 3 hurricane. This is definately a good thing for wind speeds and wind damage, but this storm is still going to cause extensive damage on the coast, and inland.
Most of the computer models are in agreement now by stalling Rita out in East Texas and producing rainfall totals anywhere from 10 to 30 inches. The only good thing is that East Texas has been experiencing drought conditions for awhile now and this will end those conditions.
Cole asked earlier on the blog: I'd really like to know your developing opinion about whether Rita will split that high pressure line or bump into it and stall; plans to Dallas are in my weekend, but I don't want to be flooded.
Personally I do not think that Rita will be able to push through the ridge of high pressure. I think this system will move inland somewhere between Houston and Tyler, and sit for at least 24-36 hours before drifting away. As far as the metroplex goes, it's a wait and see attitude. DFW has a much better chance of seeing potentially flooding rainfall than the Big Country. I'm fairly confident now that the Big Country will remain dry. I'm not 100% confident, but Abilene - West should be completely dry, and Abilene - East may see a few isolated showers.
Another question I've had e-mailed to me and called in: When should evacuees think about going back home?
At this point in time, I think people from the Galveston-Houston-Beaumont area should sit tight and call the Big Country home until Tuesday at the earliest. Everything will hinge on how long it takes Rita to get absorbed into the upper level winds and be carried out of Eastern Texas.
Here is the 4:00 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center...
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UPTO 205 MILES...335 KM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND AS FAR AS 100 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF RITA. AN ELEVATED STATION AT MARSH ISLAND LOUISIANA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDSOF 59 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 78 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERAIRCRAFT WAS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITHLARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPIAND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSEAREAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGEWAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OFTHE GULF COAST.
RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 25INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA.
As of 4:00p.m. Hurricane Rita has been downgraded to a catagory 3 hurricane. This is definately a good thing for wind speeds and wind damage, but this storm is still going to cause extensive damage on the coast, and inland.
Most of the computer models are in agreement now by stalling Rita out in East Texas and producing rainfall totals anywhere from 10 to 30 inches. The only good thing is that East Texas has been experiencing drought conditions for awhile now and this will end those conditions.
Cole asked earlier on the blog: I'd really like to know your developing opinion about whether Rita will split that high pressure line or bump into it and stall; plans to Dallas are in my weekend, but I don't want to be flooded.
Personally I do not think that Rita will be able to push through the ridge of high pressure. I think this system will move inland somewhere between Houston and Tyler, and sit for at least 24-36 hours before drifting away. As far as the metroplex goes, it's a wait and see attitude. DFW has a much better chance of seeing potentially flooding rainfall than the Big Country. I'm fairly confident now that the Big Country will remain dry. I'm not 100% confident, but Abilene - West should be completely dry, and Abilene - East may see a few isolated showers.
Another question I've had e-mailed to me and called in: When should evacuees think about going back home?
At this point in time, I think people from the Galveston-Houston-Beaumont area should sit tight and call the Big Country home until Tuesday at the earliest. Everything will hinge on how long it takes Rita to get absorbed into the upper level winds and be carried out of Eastern Texas.
Here is the 4:00 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center...
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UPTO 205 MILES...335 KM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND AS FAR AS 100 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF RITA. AN ELEVATED STATION AT MARSH ISLAND LOUISIANA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDSOF 59 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 78 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERAIRCRAFT WAS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITHLARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPIAND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSEAREAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGEWAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OFTHE GULF COAST.
RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 25INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA.
1 p.m. NHC Advisory
Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi here... Conditions are continuing to worsen across the southeastern portions of Texas and southwest Louisiana as Hurricane Rita moves closer. Right now, just showers and increased tides and winds have caused at least two levees in New Orleans to start dumping water back into the city.
The latest advisory below from the National Hurricane Center shows that Rita has weakened to a catagory 3 hurricane. The problem is, she will still continue to carry a storm surge with her of a catagory 4 or 5 storm. Even though she has weakend to a catagory 3 hurricane, the water has already been displaced ahead of her to create a storm surge more common a stronger storm.
AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION ISEXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A FURTHER SLOW WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THECENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UPTO 205 MILES. AN ELEVATED PLATFORM ON ISLE DENIERES NEAR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST JUST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 58MPH.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCERECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.
The latest advisory below from the National Hurricane Center shows that Rita has weakened to a catagory 3 hurricane. The problem is, she will still continue to carry a storm surge with her of a catagory 4 or 5 storm. Even though she has weakend to a catagory 3 hurricane, the water has already been displaced ahead of her to create a storm surge more common a stronger storm.
AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION ISEXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A FURTHER SLOW WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THECENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UPTO 205 MILES. AN ELEVATED PLATFORM ON ISLE DENIERES NEAR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST JUST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 58MPH.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCERECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.
10 a.m. NHC Advisory
From the National Hurricane Center...
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION ISEXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THECORE OF RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AT THE BORDER OF CATEGORY FOUR AND THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UPTO 205 MILES.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION ISEXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THECORE OF RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AT THE BORDER OF CATEGORY FOUR AND THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UPTO 205 MILES.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES.
7 a.m. NHC Advisory
From the National Hurricane Center:
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA WAS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE RITA CONTINUES TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA WAS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.
1:00 a.m. NHC Advisory
From the National Hurricane Center:
AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEARLATITUDE 26.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST OR ABOUT 325 MILES...525 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 285 MILES... 460KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE FRIDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS INSTRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.
AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEARLATITUDE 26.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST OR ABOUT 325 MILES...525 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 285 MILES... 460KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE FRIDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS INSTRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.
Thursday, September 22, 2005
Eyewall Replacement Cycles
Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi here... During Thursday night's 10:00 p.m. newscast I talked a little about Eyewall Replacement Cycles. These cycles are very common with large Hurricanes like "Rita." To give you an exact definition of these cycles, I figured the best way would be to quote the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, which is a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Here is what they have to say on the subject:
"Concentric eyewall cycles" (or "eyewall replacement cycle" ) naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones , i.e. major hurricanes (winds > 50 m/s, 100 kt, 115 mph) or Catories 3, 4, and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. As tropical cyclones reach this threshold of intensity, they usually - but not always - have an eyewall and radius of maximum winds that contract to a very small size, around 10 to 25 km [5 to 15 mi]. At this point, some of the outer rainbands may organize into an outer ring of thunderstorms that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and momentum. During this phase, the tropical cyclone is weakening (i.e. the maximum winds die off a bit and the central pressure goes up). Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely and the storm can be the same intensity as it was previously or, in some cases, even stronger. A concentric eyewall cycle occurred in Hurricane Andrew (1992) before landfall near Miami: a strong intensity was reached, an outer eyewall formed, this contracted in concert with a pronounced weakening of the storm, and as the outer eyewall completely replaced the original one the hurricane reintensified. Another example is Hurricane Allen (1980) which went through repeated eyewall replacement cycles -- going from Categrory 5 to Category 3 status several times. To learn more about concentric eyewall cycles, read Willoughby et al. (1982) and Willoughby (1990a).
It was the discovery of concentric eyewall cycles that was partially responsible for the end of the U.S. Governements's hurricane modification experiment Project STORMFURY, since what the scientists had hoped to produce through seeding was happening frequently as a natural part of hurricane dynamics.
For more from the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, visit their website at http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/tcfaqD.html.
The next update from the National Hurricane Center is expected around 1:00 a.m. I will post the new numbers here when I get them.
"Concentric eyewall cycles" (or "eyewall replacement cycle" ) naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones , i.e. major hurricanes (winds > 50 m/s, 100 kt, 115 mph) or Catories 3, 4, and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. As tropical cyclones reach this threshold of intensity, they usually - but not always - have an eyewall and radius of maximum winds that contract to a very small size, around 10 to 25 km [5 to 15 mi]. At this point, some of the outer rainbands may organize into an outer ring of thunderstorms that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and momentum. During this phase, the tropical cyclone is weakening (i.e. the maximum winds die off a bit and the central pressure goes up). Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely and the storm can be the same intensity as it was previously or, in some cases, even stronger. A concentric eyewall cycle occurred in Hurricane Andrew (1992) before landfall near Miami: a strong intensity was reached, an outer eyewall formed, this contracted in concert with a pronounced weakening of the storm, and as the outer eyewall completely replaced the original one the hurricane reintensified. Another example is Hurricane Allen (1980) which went through repeated eyewall replacement cycles -- going from Categrory 5 to Category 3 status several times. To learn more about concentric eyewall cycles, read Willoughby et al. (1982) and Willoughby (1990a).
It was the discovery of concentric eyewall cycles that was partially responsible for the end of the U.S. Governements's hurricane modification experiment Project STORMFURY, since what the scientists had hoped to produce through seeding was happening frequently as a natural part of hurricane dynamics.
For more from the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, visit their website at http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/tcfaqD.html.
The next update from the National Hurricane Center is expected around 1:00 a.m. I will post the new numbers here when I get them.
10 p.m. NHC Advisory
From the National Hurricane Center...
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEARLATITUDE 26.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES...560 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 310 MILES... 495KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH AREEXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UPTO 205 MILES...335 KM.
ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 917 MB...27.08 INCHES.
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEARLATITUDE 26.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES...560 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 310 MILES... 495KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH AREEXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UPTO 205 MILES...335 KM.
ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 917 MB...27.08 INCHES.
Abilene ready to shelter Rita evacuees
From the city of Abilene:
ABILENE, Texas – The City of Abilene, in cooperation with the Salvation Army and the Red Cross, stands ready to provide mass care shelter for Hurricane Rita evacuees, according to the city’s mass shelter plan.
The Salvation Army facility at 1709 Butternut Street is already open and ready to shelter up to 100 evacuees. When that shelter begins to reach capacity, the City of Abilene will open its G.V. Daniels Recreation Center, 541 North 8th Street (corner of North 8th and Treadaway) as a mass care shelter. The local Red Cross will supervise and staff the shelter. Meals will be provided by ARAMARK, the company that provides dining services to Abilene’s three universities. An additional City of Abilene recreation center will be on standby for use as a shelter if necessary.
All Rita evacuees needing shelter are asked to report to the G.V. Daniels Center to register for assistance or to telephone 2-1-1 Texas A Call for Help. The Texas Department of Public Safety has placed informational signs on highways coming into Abilene to direct people needing shelter to phone 2-1-1 Texas or the Salvation Army at 325-677-1408. The TxDOT message boards are located east of the Elmdale exit on I-20, on Hwy. 36 near Abilene Regional Airport and near the intersection of FM 707 and US 83/84 south of Abilene.
Citizens who want to help in some way with the sheltering effort are invited to contribute to the Abilene-Taylor County Disaster Relief Fund, P.O. Box 82, Abilene, Texas 79604. This fund supports the efforts of the Salvation Army, the Red Cross and other local nonprofits providing services to Gulf Coast guests in the Abilene community. The shelter locations will not be equipped to accept donations of materials or supplies.
ABILENE, Texas – The City of Abilene, in cooperation with the Salvation Army and the Red Cross, stands ready to provide mass care shelter for Hurricane Rita evacuees, according to the city’s mass shelter plan.
The Salvation Army facility at 1709 Butternut Street is already open and ready to shelter up to 100 evacuees. When that shelter begins to reach capacity, the City of Abilene will open its G.V. Daniels Recreation Center, 541 North 8th Street (corner of North 8th and Treadaway) as a mass care shelter. The local Red Cross will supervise and staff the shelter. Meals will be provided by ARAMARK, the company that provides dining services to Abilene’s three universities. An additional City of Abilene recreation center will be on standby for use as a shelter if necessary.
All Rita evacuees needing shelter are asked to report to the G.V. Daniels Center to register for assistance or to telephone 2-1-1 Texas A Call for Help. The Texas Department of Public Safety has placed informational signs on highways coming into Abilene to direct people needing shelter to phone 2-1-1 Texas or the Salvation Army at 325-677-1408. The TxDOT message boards are located east of the Elmdale exit on I-20, on Hwy. 36 near Abilene Regional Airport and near the intersection of FM 707 and US 83/84 south of Abilene.
Citizens who want to help in some way with the sheltering effort are invited to contribute to the Abilene-Taylor County Disaster Relief Fund, P.O. Box 82, Abilene, Texas 79604. This fund supports the efforts of the Salvation Army, the Red Cross and other local nonprofits providing services to Gulf Coast guests in the Abilene community. The shelter locations will not be equipped to accept donations of materials or supplies.
7:00 p.m. NHC Advisory
The following information is the latest data into the KRBC Triple Doppler Weather Center from The National Hurricane Center...
AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES...565 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 290 MILES...465 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. AGRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THESAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELYDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UPTO 205 MILES...335 KM. ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEWORLEANS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLSASSOCIATED WITH QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS.
SHORTLY BEFORE 6 PM CDT...NOAA BUOY 42001 JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF RITA REPORTED A10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 83 MPH...134 KM/HR WITH A GUST TO 112MPH...180 KM/HR.THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCEHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 913 MB...26.96 INCHES.
AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST OR ABOUT 350 MILES...565 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 290 MILES...465 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. AGRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THESAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELYDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UPTO 205 MILES...335 KM. ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEWORLEANS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLSASSOCIATED WITH QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS.
SHORTLY BEFORE 6 PM CDT...NOAA BUOY 42001 JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF RITA REPORTED A10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 83 MPH...134 KM/HR WITH A GUST TO 112MPH...180 KM/HR.THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCEHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 913 MB...26.96 INCHES.
Welcome to the KRBC Weather Blog
Thank you for taking the time to read over the KRBC-9, Triple Doppler Weather Blog. We will be updating this blog continuously as we continue to track Hurricane Rita.
This is only the beginning though. After Rita is gone, the Triple Doppler team of Meteorologists will continue to update this blog on a regular basis.
Thank you again for reading, if you have any comments or questions you are more than welcome to post them here, or e-mail them to me at ccarnesi@krbc.tv .
Craig Carnesi
Chief Meteorologist / KRBC-9
This is only the beginning though. After Rita is gone, the Triple Doppler team of Meteorologists will continue to update this blog on a regular basis.
Thank you again for reading, if you have any comments or questions you are more than welcome to post them here, or e-mail them to me at ccarnesi@krbc.tv .
Craig Carnesi
Chief Meteorologist / KRBC-9
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