From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
We have at least tied the record high for today of 88 degrees at Abilene Regional Airport. The old record was set in 1918. We will have to wait for the final climate report from the weather service to determine if we were able to break the record or not.
I think we will definately break the record tomorrow. The record for March 1st is 86 set way back in 1899. I'm forecasting a high temperature tomorrow of 88.
The changes begin after tomorrow though. A cold front will arrive early Thursday morning, knocking afternoon highs down into the lower 70s and also bringing with it a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms.
The good news, rain chances and the cooler temperatures will last through Saturday. Friday the skies will stay cloudy all day and we will see a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Then Saturday our rain chances will come to an end with highs in the lower 70s.
Another cold front arrives Saturday night and it will push out all of our moisture. Sunday looks very pleasant with highs in the middle 60s.
Then sunshine and warmth continues Monday and Tuesday.
Tuesday, February 28, 2006
Tuesday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We're starting off mild this morning, but by this afternoon it will be warm. Highs today should reach the low to mid 80s. That will be close to record heat. The record high for today at Abilene Regional Airport is 88 set back in 1904. The winds will lighten up a little bit, but still remain on the breezy side. Winds will be from the southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
The well above average temperatures continue tomorrow with new record highs likely to be set. Highs are expected to make it all the way up to the mid to upper 80s. The record high for tomorrow as I mentioned yesterday is 86 set back in 1899.
Enjoy these warm days because a cooling trend will begin on Thursday with the arrival of a cold front. Highs Thursday through Saturday will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Skies should be mostly cloudy. There is a 20% to 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms during that time period. Friday looks to be the best day for some rain. The reason we may see the precipitation is due to the subtropical jet stream setting up similar to how it was last week. A few disturbances look to pass us by Thursday through Saturday. We'll just have to wait and see.
Another cold front is expected to arrive late Saturday. This one looks to dry us out and continue the downward trend in temperatures for the end of the week and early next week. Highs Sunday and Monday should be in the 60s.
Have a terrific Tuesday!
We're starting off mild this morning, but by this afternoon it will be warm. Highs today should reach the low to mid 80s. That will be close to record heat. The record high for today at Abilene Regional Airport is 88 set back in 1904. The winds will lighten up a little bit, but still remain on the breezy side. Winds will be from the southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
The well above average temperatures continue tomorrow with new record highs likely to be set. Highs are expected to make it all the way up to the mid to upper 80s. The record high for tomorrow as I mentioned yesterday is 86 set back in 1899.
Enjoy these warm days because a cooling trend will begin on Thursday with the arrival of a cold front. Highs Thursday through Saturday will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Skies should be mostly cloudy. There is a 20% to 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms during that time period. Friday looks to be the best day for some rain. The reason we may see the precipitation is due to the subtropical jet stream setting up similar to how it was last week. A few disturbances look to pass us by Thursday through Saturday. We'll just have to wait and see.
Another cold front is expected to arrive late Saturday. This one looks to dry us out and continue the downward trend in temperatures for the end of the week and early next week. Highs Sunday and Monday should be in the 60s.
Have a terrific Tuesday!
Monday, February 27, 2006
Monday Night Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
A very pleasant start to the work-week today with afternoon high temperatures climbing into the low to middle 70s across the area.
Winds will remain breezy tonight and overnight lows will stay mild, only falling into the low to middle 50s.
High temperatures will climb into the middle 80s Ttuesday and near 90 Wednesday. I think we will break a record high on Wednesday that was set back in 1899. The old record was 86, right now I'm forecasting 87, but there is the chance we could get even warmer than that.
A cold front will then arrive thursday bringing some relief and setting the stage for showers and maybe even thunderstorms.
Rain chances are under twenty percent thursday, but climb up to thirty percent friday and fall back to twenty percent Saturday.
High temperatures will cool to the middle 70s Thursday, upper 60s Friday and lower 70s again Saturday.
Another cold front arrives Saturday into Sunday that will clear things out and moderate high temperatures to near 70 both Sunday and Monday.
A very pleasant start to the work-week today with afternoon high temperatures climbing into the low to middle 70s across the area.
Winds will remain breezy tonight and overnight lows will stay mild, only falling into the low to middle 50s.
High temperatures will climb into the middle 80s Ttuesday and near 90 Wednesday. I think we will break a record high on Wednesday that was set back in 1899. The old record was 86, right now I'm forecasting 87, but there is the chance we could get even warmer than that.
A cold front will then arrive thursday bringing some relief and setting the stage for showers and maybe even thunderstorms.
Rain chances are under twenty percent thursday, but climb up to thirty percent friday and fall back to twenty percent Saturday.
High temperatures will cool to the middle 70s Thursday, upper 60s Friday and lower 70s again Saturday.
Another cold front arrives Saturday into Sunday that will clear things out and moderate high temperatures to near 70 both Sunday and Monday.
The Warm Up Continues
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
The sunshine and warmer temperatures returned yesterday after a cool and wet Thursday through Saturday. This morning we're starting off with temperatures in the upper 30s to upper 40s. The warming trend continues this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 70s. Windy conditions are expected today as well. Winds will be from the south-southwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts as high as 30 to 35 mph. A Lake Wind and Wind Advisory are in effect for most of the area today, so you might want to put off that trip to the lake. Also, be careful if you are in a high profile vehicle on the roadways. Be sure you have a firm grip on the steering wheel.
Even though we got some rain last week, we should still be very cautious when it comes to the fire danger. It can take about 7 to 10 days for the ground and plant life to fully soak in the moisture after rain has fallen. Also the rain we saw last week will help us in the short term, but we still have a way to go before we can overcome the long term dry conditions that we have had.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be very warm and well above average for this time of year. Highs should reach the mid to upper 80s. We could see record highs on Wednesday since the record for that date is 86 set back in 1899.
A cold front is expected to arrive on Thursday. It will cool us down for Thursday through Saturday, but highs should be in the low to mid 70s. There is also a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. Hopefully, we'll add a little more rain to the rain bucket for the year since we're still about a third of an inch behind where we should be.
Another cold front looks to arrive on Saturday. Rain chances with this front look slight at best for now. This front will continue the cooling trend as Sunday's highs should be in the mid 60s.
Have a magnificent Monday!
The sunshine and warmer temperatures returned yesterday after a cool and wet Thursday through Saturday. This morning we're starting off with temperatures in the upper 30s to upper 40s. The warming trend continues this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 70s. Windy conditions are expected today as well. Winds will be from the south-southwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts as high as 30 to 35 mph. A Lake Wind and Wind Advisory are in effect for most of the area today, so you might want to put off that trip to the lake. Also, be careful if you are in a high profile vehicle on the roadways. Be sure you have a firm grip on the steering wheel.
Even though we got some rain last week, we should still be very cautious when it comes to the fire danger. It can take about 7 to 10 days for the ground and plant life to fully soak in the moisture after rain has fallen. Also the rain we saw last week will help us in the short term, but we still have a way to go before we can overcome the long term dry conditions that we have had.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be very warm and well above average for this time of year. Highs should reach the mid to upper 80s. We could see record highs on Wednesday since the record for that date is 86 set back in 1899.
A cold front is expected to arrive on Thursday. It will cool us down for Thursday through Saturday, but highs should be in the low to mid 70s. There is also a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. Hopefully, we'll add a little more rain to the rain bucket for the year since we're still about a third of an inch behind where we should be.
Another cold front looks to arrive on Saturday. Rain chances with this front look slight at best for now. This front will continue the cooling trend as Sunday's highs should be in the mid 60s.
Have a magnificent Monday!
Friday, February 24, 2006
Wonderful Rain!
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
What a beautiful, gloomy, dreary, rainy day! Triple Doppler radar shows that just about everyone has seen at least a little bit of rain. A swath of half an inch to just under two inches of rain extends from Southern Mitchell County, through Nolan and Taylor Counties and into Southern Jones and Shackelford Counties.
Triple Doppler also shows rainfall totals on the order of about half an inch or more through Southern Runnels County, through the majority of Colemand and Brown Counties and into Souther Eastland County.
Through the overnight hours tonight there will be another chance of showers as the main upper-level disturbance that has brought us this rain will pass over us. Rain chances will end by Saturday afternoon with skies beginning to clear by Saturday night.
High temperatures will be a little cooler this weekend than what I mentioned yesterday. Saturday should top out in the upper 50s and Sunday should top out in the lower 60s.
A big warm-up is in store for us next week with highs climbing back into the upper 70s and lower 80s by Tuesday.
Another cold front passes through the area by Thursday and, the best part of all, it looks like rain chances will return to the forecast by that time.
What a beautiful, gloomy, dreary, rainy day! Triple Doppler radar shows that just about everyone has seen at least a little bit of rain. A swath of half an inch to just under two inches of rain extends from Southern Mitchell County, through Nolan and Taylor Counties and into Southern Jones and Shackelford Counties.
Triple Doppler also shows rainfall totals on the order of about half an inch or more through Southern Runnels County, through the majority of Colemand and Brown Counties and into Souther Eastland County.
Through the overnight hours tonight there will be another chance of showers as the main upper-level disturbance that has brought us this rain will pass over us. Rain chances will end by Saturday afternoon with skies beginning to clear by Saturday night.
High temperatures will be a little cooler this weekend than what I mentioned yesterday. Saturday should top out in the upper 50s and Sunday should top out in the lower 60s.
A big warm-up is in store for us next week with highs climbing back into the upper 70s and lower 80s by Tuesday.
Another cold front passes through the area by Thursday and, the best part of all, it looks like rain chances will return to the forecast by that time.
Chance For Rain Coming To An End
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off a little on the mild side this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 40s. Another batch of showers is moving northeastward through the area. Showers and even a few thunderstorms will be off and on today, so keep the umbrella close by. Highs should only reach the low to mid 50s.
The chance for rain continues tonight and tomorrow morning. A few upper level disturbances are expected to move across the region in advance of an upper level low that is near Baja California. This low will end up becoming an open wave and ride the jetstream into the state. All of the rain activity should be over by the lunchtime to early afternoon hours on Saturday. A cold front looks to move through tomorrow and begin the clearing out process. Highs tomorrow should manage to make it into the upper 50s to low 60s.
A high pressure ridge will likely begin building into the area Sunday and into early next week. This will crank our temperatures up to well above average for this time of year by Tuesday. It looks as though we will also be dry during this period as well.
Have a fantastic Friday!
We started off a little on the mild side this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 40s. Another batch of showers is moving northeastward through the area. Showers and even a few thunderstorms will be off and on today, so keep the umbrella close by. Highs should only reach the low to mid 50s.
The chance for rain continues tonight and tomorrow morning. A few upper level disturbances are expected to move across the region in advance of an upper level low that is near Baja California. This low will end up becoming an open wave and ride the jetstream into the state. All of the rain activity should be over by the lunchtime to early afternoon hours on Saturday. A cold front looks to move through tomorrow and begin the clearing out process. Highs tomorrow should manage to make it into the upper 50s to low 60s.
A high pressure ridge will likely begin building into the area Sunday and into early next week. This will crank our temperatures up to well above average for this time of year by Tuesday. It looks as though we will also be dry during this period as well.
Have a fantastic Friday!
Thursday, February 23, 2006
Damp Weather Continues
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
As of 4:00 p.m. this afternoon we have received .04" of rain at Abilene Regional Airport. I know, that's not a whole lot, but at least it's measurable.
Rain chances will remain in the forecast through tomorrow night. An upper level disturbance will push through the area Friday, creating enough lift for possibly a few thunderstorms. I do not expect anything severe, but brief heavy downpours and lightning will be possible Friday.
As this disturbance exits the region, dry air will replace it and dry pattern will rule for the next week or so.
Weekend high temperatures will warm into the lower to middle 60s, with the lower to middle 70s likely Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday afternoon highs across the area will likely break 80 degrees as another cold front approaches the area. This next cold front looks to be a dry front at this point. It does not look to be an arctic front either, only knocking temperatures back to the middle 60s.
As of 4:00 p.m. this afternoon we have received .04" of rain at Abilene Regional Airport. I know, that's not a whole lot, but at least it's measurable.
Rain chances will remain in the forecast through tomorrow night. An upper level disturbance will push through the area Friday, creating enough lift for possibly a few thunderstorms. I do not expect anything severe, but brief heavy downpours and lightning will be possible Friday.
As this disturbance exits the region, dry air will replace it and dry pattern will rule for the next week or so.
Weekend high temperatures will warm into the lower to middle 60s, with the lower to middle 70s likely Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday afternoon highs across the area will likely break 80 degrees as another cold front approaches the area. This next cold front looks to be a dry front at this point. It does not look to be an arctic front either, only knocking temperatures back to the middle 60s.
Thursday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We are starting off with temperatures a little cooler than yesterday. We bottomed out in the mid 30s to low 40s across the Big Country this morning. Once again, there is plenty of cloud cover and some fog too. The fog isn't as dense as yesterday, but everyone should still be careful. Showers have also reappeared this morning. They are mainly south of Interstate 20 and will only drop a few hundreths of an inch as they move east across the area.
The chance for rain will continue throughout the day, so keep the rain gear close by. Highs will only make it into the low to mid 50s due to the cloud cover and rain. Tonight the showers will likely become more isolated. Lows should be in the low 40s.
Mostly cloudy skies and the chance for rain will rule the day again tomorrow. It's possible that we may see a few thunderstorms as well. Right now, our rain chance for Friday is 40%. Highs should be similar to today.
Our pattern begins to change this weekend. Our rain chances will come to an end and we start warming up. Skies should become partly cloudy. Highs will likely make it into the low to mid 60s which is average for this time of year.
Looking into the first half of next week, we'll have temperatures returning to well above average levels. Highs should be in the 70s. A few locations may reach 80 by Wednesday.
Have a terrific Thursday!
We are starting off with temperatures a little cooler than yesterday. We bottomed out in the mid 30s to low 40s across the Big Country this morning. Once again, there is plenty of cloud cover and some fog too. The fog isn't as dense as yesterday, but everyone should still be careful. Showers have also reappeared this morning. They are mainly south of Interstate 20 and will only drop a few hundreths of an inch as they move east across the area.
The chance for rain will continue throughout the day, so keep the rain gear close by. Highs will only make it into the low to mid 50s due to the cloud cover and rain. Tonight the showers will likely become more isolated. Lows should be in the low 40s.
Mostly cloudy skies and the chance for rain will rule the day again tomorrow. It's possible that we may see a few thunderstorms as well. Right now, our rain chance for Friday is 40%. Highs should be similar to today.
Our pattern begins to change this weekend. Our rain chances will come to an end and we start warming up. Skies should become partly cloudy. Highs will likely make it into the low to mid 60s which is average for this time of year.
Looking into the first half of next week, we'll have temperatures returning to well above average levels. Highs should be in the 70s. A few locations may reach 80 by Wednesday.
Have a terrific Thursday!
Wednesday, February 22, 2006
Wednesday Afternoon Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
Slight chances for showers remain in the forecast for the next 48 hours or so. After that, a dry pattern looks to set up once again.
For tonight there is only a slim chance of an isolated shower or two. A cold front pushed through the area early this morning and has gone stationary just South of here. Moisture will continue to overrun the cooler air bringing us our slim chance for showers.
A better chance for showers will come Friday as an upper level disturbance passes over us. Rain chances Friday will run about 20 to 30 percent.
By the weekend we were anticipating another cold front passing but unfortunately it looks like that will not happen now. So, the weekend does look nice with highs in the middle to upper 60s and partly cloudy skies.
Some of the long term models are calling for a big time warm-up for the first week of March. Last weekend may have been our last chance for winter, we'll have to wait and see.
Slight chances for showers remain in the forecast for the next 48 hours or so. After that, a dry pattern looks to set up once again.
For tonight there is only a slim chance of an isolated shower or two. A cold front pushed through the area early this morning and has gone stationary just South of here. Moisture will continue to overrun the cooler air bringing us our slim chance for showers.
A better chance for showers will come Friday as an upper level disturbance passes over us. Rain chances Friday will run about 20 to 30 percent.
By the weekend we were anticipating another cold front passing but unfortunately it looks like that will not happen now. So, the weekend does look nice with highs in the middle to upper 60s and partly cloudy skies.
Some of the long term models are calling for a big time warm-up for the first week of March. Last weekend may have been our last chance for winter, we'll have to wait and see.
Keep The Rain Gear Close By
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We are starting off with a range of temperatures across the viewing area this morning. Temperatuers bottomed out anywhere from the upper 30s to upper 40s. Fog has developed once again as well. It will be dense in some locations. Please take your time getting to your destination this morning and use your low beam headlights. We weren't the only ones dealing with dense fog to start the day. A Dense Fog Advisory stretched from our eastern counties all the way to Louisiana and Arkansas. A Dense Fog Advisory is issued when visibilities will be a quarter of a mile or less. As if the fog wasn't enough to deal with this morning, we also had some showers move through as well.
The fog should clear by the mid to late morning hours. We will continue to see mostly cloudy skies. The chance for more isolated showers will also continue at 20%. Highs today should be in the low 60s.
The chance for rain increases tonight through Friday to about 30% to 40%. We may see some isolated thunderstorms during this time period as well. The reason for the rain is because of two features. One, a cold front moved through the area and will stall out to our south. Gulf moisture will ride over this cooler air mass and possibly cause some rain. This process is something we call isentropic lift. We also have the southern branch of the jet stream moving through the state. This will bring in Pacific moisture in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Upper level disturbances will ride this jet stream into our area and possibly bring us some rain. Some models are showing total rainfall amounts for the next three days in the half inch to inch category. I feel these models are overdoing it. I think we will only end up with a quarter of an inch to a half inch. Keep you fingers crossed. Anything we get will be better than what we have received lately, which is pretty much nothing. Temperatures for Thursday and Friday should be in the upper 50s.
The colder air that was expected this weekend doesn't look like it is going to make it now. That air looks to remain to our north and east. I have increased our highs to the low 60s for Saturday and Sunday. We should begin the drying out process druing that time too.
By early next week, skies clear out and temperatures will return to well above average levels. We could see highs back in the low 70s by Tuesday.
Have a wonderful Wednesday!
We are starting off with a range of temperatures across the viewing area this morning. Temperatuers bottomed out anywhere from the upper 30s to upper 40s. Fog has developed once again as well. It will be dense in some locations. Please take your time getting to your destination this morning and use your low beam headlights. We weren't the only ones dealing with dense fog to start the day. A Dense Fog Advisory stretched from our eastern counties all the way to Louisiana and Arkansas. A Dense Fog Advisory is issued when visibilities will be a quarter of a mile or less. As if the fog wasn't enough to deal with this morning, we also had some showers move through as well.
The fog should clear by the mid to late morning hours. We will continue to see mostly cloudy skies. The chance for more isolated showers will also continue at 20%. Highs today should be in the low 60s.
The chance for rain increases tonight through Friday to about 30% to 40%. We may see some isolated thunderstorms during this time period as well. The reason for the rain is because of two features. One, a cold front moved through the area and will stall out to our south. Gulf moisture will ride over this cooler air mass and possibly cause some rain. This process is something we call isentropic lift. We also have the southern branch of the jet stream moving through the state. This will bring in Pacific moisture in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Upper level disturbances will ride this jet stream into our area and possibly bring us some rain. Some models are showing total rainfall amounts for the next three days in the half inch to inch category. I feel these models are overdoing it. I think we will only end up with a quarter of an inch to a half inch. Keep you fingers crossed. Anything we get will be better than what we have received lately, which is pretty much nothing. Temperatures for Thursday and Friday should be in the upper 50s.
The colder air that was expected this weekend doesn't look like it is going to make it now. That air looks to remain to our north and east. I have increased our highs to the low 60s for Saturday and Sunday. We should begin the drying out process druing that time too.
By early next week, skies clear out and temperatures will return to well above average levels. We could see highs back in the low 70s by Tuesday.
Have a wonderful Wednesday!
Tuesday, February 21, 2006
Wet Weather Possible
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
Good news, rain chances are in the forecast and temperatures will stay above freezing so we will not have the travel concerns and problems we had this weekend.
Rain chances will begin as early as overnight tonight. The first thing to lead to our rain chances will be the passage of a weak cold front overnight tonight. That front will reinforce the cooler air at the surface and give the moisture something to lift over.
The second and main source for our chances for rain will come in the middle levels of the atmosphere as the Southern branch of the jet stream sets up shop directly over us beginning Wednesday. Numerous upper level disturbances will then pass by and bring us more chances for showers.
Unfortunately all of this will come to an end Friday evening as another cold front blows through and pushes all of this out of our area.
By the weekend partly cloudy skies and cool conditions will rule. Highs will run in the middle 50s. The dry pattern will then continue through most of next week.
Good news, rain chances are in the forecast and temperatures will stay above freezing so we will not have the travel concerns and problems we had this weekend.
Rain chances will begin as early as overnight tonight. The first thing to lead to our rain chances will be the passage of a weak cold front overnight tonight. That front will reinforce the cooler air at the surface and give the moisture something to lift over.
The second and main source for our chances for rain will come in the middle levels of the atmosphere as the Southern branch of the jet stream sets up shop directly over us beginning Wednesday. Numerous upper level disturbances will then pass by and bring us more chances for showers.
Unfortunately all of this will come to an end Friday evening as another cold front blows through and pushes all of this out of our area.
By the weekend partly cloudy skies and cool conditions will rule. Highs will run in the middle 50s. The dry pattern will then continue through most of next week.
Keep The Umbrella Handy
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
No, you are not seeing things. I have titled this entry "Keep The Umbrella Handy." We have several chances for rain over the coming days. First, though, let's talk about this morning and today. We started off with a wide range of temperatures. In Sweetwater and Snyder, the temperature got below freezing. However, in Abilene and Brownwood, temperatures only bottomed out in the upper 30s to low 40s. Fog has once again developed across the viewing area this morning. It is dense in a few locations, so be careful and give yourself plenty of time to get to your destinations. The fog should clear out later this morning. Mostly cloudy skies will remain. Highs today should still make it into the upper 60s to low 70s thanks in part to winds from the south-southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
A cold front is expected to move through tonight and into early tomorrow. We may have just enough moisture in place that some showers are possible. The chance is only 20%. Lows tonight will be mild in the mid 40s.
The chance for rain continues Thursday and Friday at 30% to 40%. We may even see some thunderstorms on Wednesday night and Thursday. Highs on Thursday look to be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Warmer temperatures are expected Friday with highs in the upper 60s.
There are several reasons why we have the chance for rain. The southern branch of the jetstream is going to be running right over the Lone Star State. Some disturbances are projected to move along the jetstream for the next few days. This means nothing if there isn't enough moisture in place. That has been our problem for most of the past four to five months. This time however, we may have just enough in place. Pacific and Gulf moisture should continue moving into the area during the Tuesday through Friday time period. So, keep your fingers crossed that we get as much rain as possible with this opportunity.
Another cold front is expected to arrive on Saturday. It looks to be bringing with it a little bit colder air mass. Right now, it doesn't seem to be anything like what we saw last weekend. Temperatures will be below average for this time of year with highs in the low 50s. We may see a few showers this weekend. It really depends on how much moisture we have left at that point. We'll just have to wait and see.
Have a terrific Tuesday!
No, you are not seeing things. I have titled this entry "Keep The Umbrella Handy." We have several chances for rain over the coming days. First, though, let's talk about this morning and today. We started off with a wide range of temperatures. In Sweetwater and Snyder, the temperature got below freezing. However, in Abilene and Brownwood, temperatures only bottomed out in the upper 30s to low 40s. Fog has once again developed across the viewing area this morning. It is dense in a few locations, so be careful and give yourself plenty of time to get to your destinations. The fog should clear out later this morning. Mostly cloudy skies will remain. Highs today should still make it into the upper 60s to low 70s thanks in part to winds from the south-southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
A cold front is expected to move through tonight and into early tomorrow. We may have just enough moisture in place that some showers are possible. The chance is only 20%. Lows tonight will be mild in the mid 40s.
The chance for rain continues Thursday and Friday at 30% to 40%. We may even see some thunderstorms on Wednesday night and Thursday. Highs on Thursday look to be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Warmer temperatures are expected Friday with highs in the upper 60s.
There are several reasons why we have the chance for rain. The southern branch of the jetstream is going to be running right over the Lone Star State. Some disturbances are projected to move along the jetstream for the next few days. This means nothing if there isn't enough moisture in place. That has been our problem for most of the past four to five months. This time however, we may have just enough in place. Pacific and Gulf moisture should continue moving into the area during the Tuesday through Friday time period. So, keep your fingers crossed that we get as much rain as possible with this opportunity.
Another cold front is expected to arrive on Saturday. It looks to be bringing with it a little bit colder air mass. Right now, it doesn't seem to be anything like what we saw last weekend. Temperatures will be below average for this time of year with highs in the low 50s. We may see a few showers this weekend. It really depends on how much moisture we have left at that point. We'll just have to wait and see.
Have a terrific Tuesday!
Monday, February 20, 2006
Let The Warm Up Begin
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
Before I get into this morning's discussion, I would like to wish everyone a happy President's Day.
It was a very cold weekend for us. We dropped below freezing Friday morning and most of us in the Big Country haven't gotten above 32 degrees since then. The western communities did manage to make it to the mid 30s yesterday due to some late day sunshine. We also had some light freezing rain, freezing drizzle, and small snowflakes off and on throughout the weeekend. Most of it did not make it to the ground however due to it being too dry at the surface. There were some locations in the Big Country that saw a few icy spots on the roads because the freezing rain and drizzle was just heavy enough to cause a few travel problems.
This morning we are starting off at or below freezing across the entire viewing area. There is also fog and mist in some spots. Be sure to give yourself plenty of time to get to your destinations. Also, remember to use your low beam headlines when it is foggy. Because temperatures are at or below freezing, some of this fog and mist may cause some slick spots on the roadways so be careful.
By this afternoon, all of the cold weather should be just a memory as everyone will be well above freezing. Mostly cloudy skies will remain, but temperatures should reach the mid to upper 50s.
The warming trend continues tomorrow. Partly cloudy skies are expected. With more sunshine and winds from the southwest, temperatures will climb well above average again. Highs will likely be in the upper 60s to low 70s.
A cold front is expected to move through early Wednesday. This will cool temepratures back down into the 6os for the middle to late portions of the work week. Also, there is a slight to 20% chance Tuesday night through Friday for some off and on showers. The best chance is going to be in the southeastern and eastern portions of the viewing area. That is where the most moisture will be built up.
It looks like another arctic surge will be making its way towards the central and eastern portions of the United States for the weekend. Another cold front will likely make its way through the Big Country late Friday and into Saturday. Right now, temperatures should cool down below average for this time of year. The question is how much. At this time, I'm calling for highs in the low 50s, but those numbers may have to be lowered as we get closer to that time period. It also looks to be dry this weekend as well. We'll continue to keep you updated about this situation throughout the week.
Have a magnificent Monday!
Before I get into this morning's discussion, I would like to wish everyone a happy President's Day.
It was a very cold weekend for us. We dropped below freezing Friday morning and most of us in the Big Country haven't gotten above 32 degrees since then. The western communities did manage to make it to the mid 30s yesterday due to some late day sunshine. We also had some light freezing rain, freezing drizzle, and small snowflakes off and on throughout the weeekend. Most of it did not make it to the ground however due to it being too dry at the surface. There were some locations in the Big Country that saw a few icy spots on the roads because the freezing rain and drizzle was just heavy enough to cause a few travel problems.
This morning we are starting off at or below freezing across the entire viewing area. There is also fog and mist in some spots. Be sure to give yourself plenty of time to get to your destinations. Also, remember to use your low beam headlines when it is foggy. Because temperatures are at or below freezing, some of this fog and mist may cause some slick spots on the roadways so be careful.
By this afternoon, all of the cold weather should be just a memory as everyone will be well above freezing. Mostly cloudy skies will remain, but temperatures should reach the mid to upper 50s.
The warming trend continues tomorrow. Partly cloudy skies are expected. With more sunshine and winds from the southwest, temperatures will climb well above average again. Highs will likely be in the upper 60s to low 70s.
A cold front is expected to move through early Wednesday. This will cool temepratures back down into the 6os for the middle to late portions of the work week. Also, there is a slight to 20% chance Tuesday night through Friday for some off and on showers. The best chance is going to be in the southeastern and eastern portions of the viewing area. That is where the most moisture will be built up.
It looks like another arctic surge will be making its way towards the central and eastern portions of the United States for the weekend. Another cold front will likely make its way through the Big Country late Friday and into Saturday. Right now, temperatures should cool down below average for this time of year. The question is how much. At this time, I'm calling for highs in the low 50s, but those numbers may have to be lowered as we get closer to that time period. It also looks to be dry this weekend as well. We'll continue to keep you updated about this situation throughout the week.
Have a magnificent Monday!
Friday, February 17, 2006
Winter Precipitation Still Possible
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
In case you didn't notice, the cold air has arrived. Yesterday afternoon we were in the middle to upper 80s across the area, today we are 50 degrees cooler with temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Only a few areas have gotten above freezing today. After tonight, I do not expect most areas to get above freezing again until Sunday afternoon.
Freezing drizzle and rain will be possible tonight through early Sunday. Chances still do not look great for significant accumulations, but there could be some slick spots on bridges and overpasses.
There is currently a Winter Weather Advisory for Stephens, Eastland and Comanche counties through midnight Saturday night.
By Sunday, rain and winter precipitation chance will come to an end. Then, warmer temperatures and dry conditions are back in the forecast for the rest of the extended forecast.
In case you didn't notice, the cold air has arrived. Yesterday afternoon we were in the middle to upper 80s across the area, today we are 50 degrees cooler with temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Only a few areas have gotten above freezing today. After tonight, I do not expect most areas to get above freezing again until Sunday afternoon.
Freezing drizzle and rain will be possible tonight through early Sunday. Chances still do not look great for significant accumulations, but there could be some slick spots on bridges and overpasses.
There is currently a Winter Weather Advisory for Stephens, Eastland and Comanche counties through midnight Saturday night.
By Sunday, rain and winter precipitation chance will come to an end. Then, warmer temperatures and dry conditions are back in the forecast for the rest of the extended forecast.
The Arctic Air Is Here
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
As I write this, temperatures are continuing to fall across the Big Country behind the cold front that moved through last night. Just about everyone is in the 20s expect in the southeastern portions of the area where it is in the mid 30s. It will remain chilly all day. Highs for today pretty much occurred around midnight. We'll be lucky if temperatures make it much past the mid 30s during the day. Breezy conditions are expected as well. This means wind chills should be below freezing all day. You should bundle up and dress in layers if you are going to be outdoors.
You'll also need to protect your pets, plants, and pipes this weekend. We will be below freezing for several hours. Lows tonight and tomorrow night should be in the mid 20s. Highs on Saturday will likely only be in the upper 20s to low 30s. We should finally get above freezing again by Sunday afternoon with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
As if the cold air wasn't enough to be concerned about, we also have a chance of wintry precipitation. Warm and moist air is expected to ride over the cold air beginning tonight and lasting through Sunday. This is a situation we call overrunning. There is a 20% chance of freezing rain and freezing drizzle tonight. Tomorrow and tomorrow night, we increase that chance to 30% and add some sleet to the mix. That 30% chance continues into Sunday. It looks like it will start as a wintry mix and then change over to rain once we get temperatures above freezing in the afternoon. This should be mainly an ice event due to the cold air being shallow. In the northern communities, however, the cold air could be deep enough that some snow could fall.
As far as amounts go, I think we'll see about a tenth to a quarter of an inch here in the Big Country. A few isolated spots could see more depending on how quickly we can moisten the atmosphere. We are still too dry at the surface for the precipitation to make it all the way to the ground. Of course, it doesn't take much ice at all to cause problems. I think our biggest travel concerns will be for bridges and overpasses. They will be the first to ice over. There could be a few slick spots on other parts of the roadways, but it may take a little while. The ground is warm and will take some time to cool down. There is a Winter Storm Watch in effect for Stephens, Eastland, and Comanche counties beginning tonight and lasting through Sunday afternoon. That watch extends into the eastern portions of the state towards the Dallas/Fort Worth area as well as Texarkana. If you have travel plans towards that direction this weekend, you will want to be very careful and possibly postpone them depending on how travel conditions are when you want to leave. If you have to travel this weekend at all, please be careful and take your time.
By early next week, this all just a memory as temperatures will warm back up closer to the 50s and 60s for highs.
Be sure to keep it tuned to KRBC and this blog for all the latest weather information.
Have a fantastic Friday!
As I write this, temperatures are continuing to fall across the Big Country behind the cold front that moved through last night. Just about everyone is in the 20s expect in the southeastern portions of the area where it is in the mid 30s. It will remain chilly all day. Highs for today pretty much occurred around midnight. We'll be lucky if temperatures make it much past the mid 30s during the day. Breezy conditions are expected as well. This means wind chills should be below freezing all day. You should bundle up and dress in layers if you are going to be outdoors.
You'll also need to protect your pets, plants, and pipes this weekend. We will be below freezing for several hours. Lows tonight and tomorrow night should be in the mid 20s. Highs on Saturday will likely only be in the upper 20s to low 30s. We should finally get above freezing again by Sunday afternoon with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.
As if the cold air wasn't enough to be concerned about, we also have a chance of wintry precipitation. Warm and moist air is expected to ride over the cold air beginning tonight and lasting through Sunday. This is a situation we call overrunning. There is a 20% chance of freezing rain and freezing drizzle tonight. Tomorrow and tomorrow night, we increase that chance to 30% and add some sleet to the mix. That 30% chance continues into Sunday. It looks like it will start as a wintry mix and then change over to rain once we get temperatures above freezing in the afternoon. This should be mainly an ice event due to the cold air being shallow. In the northern communities, however, the cold air could be deep enough that some snow could fall.
As far as amounts go, I think we'll see about a tenth to a quarter of an inch here in the Big Country. A few isolated spots could see more depending on how quickly we can moisten the atmosphere. We are still too dry at the surface for the precipitation to make it all the way to the ground. Of course, it doesn't take much ice at all to cause problems. I think our biggest travel concerns will be for bridges and overpasses. They will be the first to ice over. There could be a few slick spots on other parts of the roadways, but it may take a little while. The ground is warm and will take some time to cool down. There is a Winter Storm Watch in effect for Stephens, Eastland, and Comanche counties beginning tonight and lasting through Sunday afternoon. That watch extends into the eastern portions of the state towards the Dallas/Fort Worth area as well as Texarkana. If you have travel plans towards that direction this weekend, you will want to be very careful and possibly postpone them depending on how travel conditions are when you want to leave. If you have to travel this weekend at all, please be careful and take your time.
By early next week, this all just a memory as temperatures will warm back up closer to the 50s and 60s for highs.
Be sure to keep it tuned to KRBC and this blog for all the latest weather information.
Have a fantastic Friday!
Thursday, February 16, 2006
Winter Returns...
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
The much anticipated cold front is pushing through the Big Country tonight. Overnight low temperatures will run anywhere from the middle 20s to lower 30s North to South across the area tonight.
Precipitation chances will come into the forecast beginning Friday night into Saturday morning. Right now, any precipitation we could see will be light. The most impressive totals I've seen looking at computer models only adds up to two tenths of an inch. Now, the only problem is, with temperatures hovering at or below freezing beginning Friday night through Sunday afternoon, two tenths of an inch of ice will stick to bridges and overpasses. So, there could be come patchy travel problems beginning early Saturday until Sunday afternoon.
The National Weather Service out of Fort Worth has already issued a Winter Storm Watch for Stephens, Eastland and Comanche counties effective from Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.
As I mentioned above, I expect temperatures to stay at or below freezing beginning Friday night and lasting until Sunday afternoon. Please remember to bring the pets indoors during this time, cover or wrap all exterior, exposed pipes and take care of tender vegetation.
All of this winter weather will be a thought of the past by the time we head into next week. By Monday, afternoon highs will be near 60 once again.
For the latest winter weather forecast, visit this blog, as we will be updating it a little more frequently, and of course, stay tuned to KRBC, Abilene's First News and Weather.
The much anticipated cold front is pushing through the Big Country tonight. Overnight low temperatures will run anywhere from the middle 20s to lower 30s North to South across the area tonight.
Precipitation chances will come into the forecast beginning Friday night into Saturday morning. Right now, any precipitation we could see will be light. The most impressive totals I've seen looking at computer models only adds up to two tenths of an inch. Now, the only problem is, with temperatures hovering at or below freezing beginning Friday night through Sunday afternoon, two tenths of an inch of ice will stick to bridges and overpasses. So, there could be come patchy travel problems beginning early Saturday until Sunday afternoon.
The National Weather Service out of Fort Worth has already issued a Winter Storm Watch for Stephens, Eastland and Comanche counties effective from Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.
As I mentioned above, I expect temperatures to stay at or below freezing beginning Friday night and lasting until Sunday afternoon. Please remember to bring the pets indoors during this time, cover or wrap all exterior, exposed pipes and take care of tender vegetation.
All of this winter weather will be a thought of the past by the time we head into next week. By Monday, afternoon highs will be near 60 once again.
For the latest winter weather forecast, visit this blog, as we will be updating it a little more frequently, and of course, stay tuned to KRBC, Abilene's First News and Weather.
Arctic Air Will Be Here Soon
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
After being a little under the weather yesterday, I'm back today. Thanks to Craig Carnesi for filling in for me while I was out.
It will be another warm and windy day for us today. Highs should reach the low 80s. The record high for today at Abilene Regional Airport is 83 set back in 1971. Winds are expected from the west-southwest at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts possible. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for most of the area this afternoon. Please continue to follow all the necessary precautions in order to prevent fires.
Big changes begin tonight as a cold front is expected to arrive during the evening hours. Lows will be in the upper 20s to low 30s. No precipitation is expected with the front. Arctic air will continue to build in behind it though. Highs will likely not make it past the mid to upper 30s on Friday. With breezy conditions expected, wind chills will be at or below freezing all day.
A few upper level disturbances are expected to bring warm and moist air over the cold and dry air in a situation we call overrunning Friday night through Sunday. Since temperatures will be below freezing Friday night and Saturday night, there is a chance we will see rain change to some wintry precipitation. I expect to see mainly freezing rain, freezing drizzle and sleet across most of the Big Country. The northern portions of the viewing area may see a little snow. The reason we will see mainly ice instead of snow is due to the cold air being shallow. Basically, it won't be cold enough throughout the entire atmosphere to support snow. Amounts are expected to be light. I don't expect much in the way of travel problems since there won't be much accumulation. There may be a few slick spots on some bridges and overpasses. Also since temperatures have been very warm the past couple of days, the ground is not cold enough to support whatever does accumulate for too long. Highs on Saturday look to be in the mid 30s, while on Sunday they should reach the mid 40s. This is how the situation looks right now. Things could change, so be sure to stay tuned for the latest information.
Looking into early next week, temperatures should warm back up closer to average for this time of year.
Have a terrific Thursday!
After being a little under the weather yesterday, I'm back today. Thanks to Craig Carnesi for filling in for me while I was out.
It will be another warm and windy day for us today. Highs should reach the low 80s. The record high for today at Abilene Regional Airport is 83 set back in 1971. Winds are expected from the west-southwest at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts possible. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for most of the area this afternoon. Please continue to follow all the necessary precautions in order to prevent fires.
Big changes begin tonight as a cold front is expected to arrive during the evening hours. Lows will be in the upper 20s to low 30s. No precipitation is expected with the front. Arctic air will continue to build in behind it though. Highs will likely not make it past the mid to upper 30s on Friday. With breezy conditions expected, wind chills will be at or below freezing all day.
A few upper level disturbances are expected to bring warm and moist air over the cold and dry air in a situation we call overrunning Friday night through Sunday. Since temperatures will be below freezing Friday night and Saturday night, there is a chance we will see rain change to some wintry precipitation. I expect to see mainly freezing rain, freezing drizzle and sleet across most of the Big Country. The northern portions of the viewing area may see a little snow. The reason we will see mainly ice instead of snow is due to the cold air being shallow. Basically, it won't be cold enough throughout the entire atmosphere to support snow. Amounts are expected to be light. I don't expect much in the way of travel problems since there won't be much accumulation. There may be a few slick spots on some bridges and overpasses. Also since temperatures have been very warm the past couple of days, the ground is not cold enough to support whatever does accumulate for too long. Highs on Saturday look to be in the mid 30s, while on Sunday they should reach the mid 40s. This is how the situation looks right now. Things could change, so be sure to stay tuned for the latest information.
Looking into early next week, temperatures should warm back up closer to average for this time of year.
Have a terrific Thursday!
Wednesday, February 15, 2006
Cold Air Is Moving
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
Big changes are still ahead in your forecast. One more warm and windy day lies ahead before the changes though.
Thursday afternoon winds will run anywhere from 10 to 30 miles per across the Big Country as the pressure gradient tightens up ahead of our BIG cold front.
The front will begin to push through the area late in the afternoon and should clear IH-20 by 7:00 or 8:00 p.m. The front will arrive dry, but set the stage for precipitation chances beginning Friday night.
Friday's high temperatures will struggle to reach the middle 30s. Winds will remain blustery throughout the day with wind chill readings at or below freezing all day.
Friday night, moisture looks to begin overrunning the cold air. It will take a little while to moisten up the lower levels of the atmosphere. I expect the best chances for precipitation will come Friday night through early Sunday.
Now, the big question is, what will the precipitation be? Frozen, liquid, both?
Right now it looks like we will mostly see freezing drizzle or rain across the viewing area. There will be a chance for snow and sleet, mainly in the Northern viewing area, but I just don't think the cold airmass will be deep enough to support an all-freezing precipitation event.
Either way, it will be cold, and there is a chance of some ice slickened roads beginning Friday night and Saturday night. Even with the chance, I do not think we will see widespread travel problems this weekend across the area. As always, stay tuned for the latest forecast information.
Big changes are still ahead in your forecast. One more warm and windy day lies ahead before the changes though.
Thursday afternoon winds will run anywhere from 10 to 30 miles per across the Big Country as the pressure gradient tightens up ahead of our BIG cold front.
The front will begin to push through the area late in the afternoon and should clear IH-20 by 7:00 or 8:00 p.m. The front will arrive dry, but set the stage for precipitation chances beginning Friday night.
Friday's high temperatures will struggle to reach the middle 30s. Winds will remain blustery throughout the day with wind chill readings at or below freezing all day.
Friday night, moisture looks to begin overrunning the cold air. It will take a little while to moisten up the lower levels of the atmosphere. I expect the best chances for precipitation will come Friday night through early Sunday.
Now, the big question is, what will the precipitation be? Frozen, liquid, both?
Right now it looks like we will mostly see freezing drizzle or rain across the viewing area. There will be a chance for snow and sleet, mainly in the Northern viewing area, but I just don't think the cold airmass will be deep enough to support an all-freezing precipitation event.
Either way, it will be cold, and there is a chance of some ice slickened roads beginning Friday night and Saturday night. Even with the chance, I do not think we will see widespread travel problems this weekend across the area. As always, stay tuned for the latest forecast information.
Early Wednesday Morning Forecast
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
All our best wishes for a return to healthy Brandon Rector this morning. He's a little under the weather unfortunately, so you have to put up with me this morning. Brandon apologizes, and promises to be back as soon as possible. :-)
Not much has changed, get ready for another windy and warm afternoon today. Highs will warm into the lower 80s areawide this afternoon. This is thanks to abundant sunshine and a dry, downsloping West-Southwest wind. Red Flag Warnings are posted for all of the viewing area with the expception of Stonewall County who is under a Fire Weather Watch.
The BIG changes come Thursday night. That's when the BIG cold front arrives. Temperatures Friday will struggle to get into the middle 30s.
Then, we have to actually worry about precipitation. I never thought I'd say that after how dry we have been, but we're talking winter precipitation here.
Beginning Friday night through Sunday, we will have a window of oppurtunity for rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow. Right now, it looks like the extreme Northern viewing area will have the best chance of seeing some snow, Central viewers will likely see a mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet and maybe a few snowflakes. The Southern viewing area will probably only see freezing rain.
If we do see this precipitation, I expect totals to be very light. Therefore, I do not predict any major travel problems. Things could still change between now and this weekend, so stay tuned for the latest forecast.
PLEASE, go out and make it a GREAT day!
All our best wishes for a return to healthy Brandon Rector this morning. He's a little under the weather unfortunately, so you have to put up with me this morning. Brandon apologizes, and promises to be back as soon as possible. :-)
Not much has changed, get ready for another windy and warm afternoon today. Highs will warm into the lower 80s areawide this afternoon. This is thanks to abundant sunshine and a dry, downsloping West-Southwest wind. Red Flag Warnings are posted for all of the viewing area with the expception of Stonewall County who is under a Fire Weather Watch.
The BIG changes come Thursday night. That's when the BIG cold front arrives. Temperatures Friday will struggle to get into the middle 30s.
Then, we have to actually worry about precipitation. I never thought I'd say that after how dry we have been, but we're talking winter precipitation here.
Beginning Friday night through Sunday, we will have a window of oppurtunity for rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow. Right now, it looks like the extreme Northern viewing area will have the best chance of seeing some snow, Central viewers will likely see a mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet and maybe a few snowflakes. The Southern viewing area will probably only see freezing rain.
If we do see this precipitation, I expect totals to be very light. Therefore, I do not predict any major travel problems. Things could still change between now and this weekend, so stay tuned for the latest forecast.
PLEASE, go out and make it a GREAT day!
Tuesday, February 14, 2006
80 degrees one day, Maybe 39 the next...
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
You really have to love West Texas weather. We enjoyed a warm afternoon today with highs in the low 70s. Tomorrow, afternoon highs will climb into the lower to middle 80s! We are warming up thanks to the dry air in place, the abundant sunshine and the strong winds thanks to a surface trough and low pressure system to our West and North. Then, the changes begin...
Thursday starts off warm and windy, but will finish much colder. A strong cold front will begin to push into the Northern viewing area Thursday evening and will clear the area by Friday morning.
There will be enough mositure for mostly cloudy skie Friday. Because of the cloud cover and the cold front, high temperatures Friday will struggle to reach the upper 30s. Winds will stay breezy and blustery out of the North keeping wind chills at or below freezing all day Friday.
Now, on to those rain/snow/sleet/freezing rain chances we have been talking about the last few days.
It still looks like we will see some precipitation in some form beginning Friday night and through the day Saturday. My current thinking is that we will see a mix, North to South across the area, ranging from Snow/Sleet in the Northern area, to Snow/Sleet/Freezing Rain in the Central areas, to more of a Freezing Rain scenario South.
Everything is going to depend upon how shallow of a cold air mass we end up dealing with. Right now, it appears the coldest air will be at the surface, which would not allow for precipitation to freeze until it gets all of the way down to here. If that changes just a little bit, we could be looking at an all freezing precipiation scenario.
I do not expect major travel problems because of this system though. Right now it looks like all precipitation will be very light, and accumulations will be light as well.
With winter weather, as with most weather, the closer we get to Friday, the better idea we will have of what kind of situation we will be looking at. So, stay tuned...
And, if you like the cold weather, get ready, it looks like we will see another decent cold front Monday into Tuesday. This front so far looks to arrive dry but will keep temperature below average for the beginning of next week.
You really have to love West Texas weather. We enjoyed a warm afternoon today with highs in the low 70s. Tomorrow, afternoon highs will climb into the lower to middle 80s! We are warming up thanks to the dry air in place, the abundant sunshine and the strong winds thanks to a surface trough and low pressure system to our West and North. Then, the changes begin...
Thursday starts off warm and windy, but will finish much colder. A strong cold front will begin to push into the Northern viewing area Thursday evening and will clear the area by Friday morning.
There will be enough mositure for mostly cloudy skie Friday. Because of the cloud cover and the cold front, high temperatures Friday will struggle to reach the upper 30s. Winds will stay breezy and blustery out of the North keeping wind chills at or below freezing all day Friday.
Now, on to those rain/snow/sleet/freezing rain chances we have been talking about the last few days.
It still looks like we will see some precipitation in some form beginning Friday night and through the day Saturday. My current thinking is that we will see a mix, North to South across the area, ranging from Snow/Sleet in the Northern area, to Snow/Sleet/Freezing Rain in the Central areas, to more of a Freezing Rain scenario South.
Everything is going to depend upon how shallow of a cold air mass we end up dealing with. Right now, it appears the coldest air will be at the surface, which would not allow for precipitation to freeze until it gets all of the way down to here. If that changes just a little bit, we could be looking at an all freezing precipiation scenario.
I do not expect major travel problems because of this system though. Right now it looks like all precipitation will be very light, and accumulations will be light as well.
With winter weather, as with most weather, the closer we get to Friday, the better idea we will have of what kind of situation we will be looking at. So, stay tuned...
And, if you like the cold weather, get ready, it looks like we will see another decent cold front Monday into Tuesday. This front so far looks to arrive dry but will keep temperature below average for the beginning of next week.
Warm Now, Cold Later
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off chilly across most of the area this morning with temperatures mainly in the 30s. A few locations only made it down into the low 40s. Everyone will be warm this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 70s. Breezy conditions continue with winds from the southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Warm and windy conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday. A Fire Weather Watch is already in effect for most of the viewing area for tomorrow afternoon. Please continue to follow all the necessary precautions in order to prevent fires. The elevated fire danger will be with us most of the week.
The arctic cold front that we have been talking about for a few days now looks to move through the area Thursday night. Right now, it looks like highs won't make it out of the 30s on Friday and Saturday. There may be just enough moisture that we may see some rain and even a little wintry mix during that time period. Amounts, if any, look to be light at this point. Keep in mind that we're still 3 to 4 days away from this event. In order for us to see any frozen precipitation, a lot of variables have to play out just right. We'll continue to monitor the situation and keep you updated throughout the week.
Have A Happy Valentine's Day!
We started off chilly across most of the area this morning with temperatures mainly in the 30s. A few locations only made it down into the low 40s. Everyone will be warm this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 70s. Breezy conditions continue with winds from the southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Warm and windy conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday. A Fire Weather Watch is already in effect for most of the viewing area for tomorrow afternoon. Please continue to follow all the necessary precautions in order to prevent fires. The elevated fire danger will be with us most of the week.
The arctic cold front that we have been talking about for a few days now looks to move through the area Thursday night. Right now, it looks like highs won't make it out of the 30s on Friday and Saturday. There may be just enough moisture that we may see some rain and even a little wintry mix during that time period. Amounts, if any, look to be light at this point. Keep in mind that we're still 3 to 4 days away from this event. In order for us to see any frozen precipitation, a lot of variables have to play out just right. We'll continue to monitor the situation and keep you updated throughout the week.
Have A Happy Valentine's Day!
Monday, February 13, 2006
Winter Weather Could Be Coming
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
Even though temperatures will warm back into the middle 70s to lower 80s this week, get ready, because Mother Nature is going to cool us down again by Friday.
With the dry air in place and Southwesterly winds, afternoon highs will climb well above average this week. Winds will remain breezy each afternoon as well, so fire danger will remain elevated all week.
A strong cold front will push through the Big Country Thursday night. This frontal system will not only cool us down, but will also bring us our best chance for precipitation in a while as well.
With previous cold fronts, all of the moisture has been scoured out of the area after the fronts have arrived. This time around, it looks like the moisture will remain.
Right now it looks like most of precipitation will fall in the liquid form and then possibly freeze on contact with the surface, depending on temperatures at the surface. More on the precipitation type expected later this week.
Either way, it is definately going to be colder than average. Highs Friday will run in the middle to lower 40s, Saturday, only in the upper 30s.
Even though temperatures will warm back into the middle 70s to lower 80s this week, get ready, because Mother Nature is going to cool us down again by Friday.
With the dry air in place and Southwesterly winds, afternoon highs will climb well above average this week. Winds will remain breezy each afternoon as well, so fire danger will remain elevated all week.
A strong cold front will push through the Big Country Thursday night. This frontal system will not only cool us down, but will also bring us our best chance for precipitation in a while as well.
With previous cold fronts, all of the moisture has been scoured out of the area after the fronts have arrived. This time around, it looks like the moisture will remain.
Right now it looks like most of precipitation will fall in the liquid form and then possibly freeze on contact with the surface, depending on temperatures at the surface. More on the precipitation type expected later this week.
Either way, it is definately going to be colder than average. Highs Friday will run in the middle to lower 40s, Saturday, only in the upper 30s.
Monday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off cold again this morning with temperatures at or below freezing across the Big Country. Temperatures should warm a little above average for this time of year this afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Breezy conditions should return with winds from the south-southwest at 10 to 20 mph. The elevated fire danger continues, so please follow all the necessary precautions in order to prevent fires. If you wondering exactly what those precautions are, you can look at the post by Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi from yesterday.
Warm and breezy conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday. Skies will be mostly sunny with highs in the low to mid 70s.
Changes begin Thursday night into Friday morning with the arrival of a cold front. This front looks to have arctic air behind it. Chilly temperatures are expected to hang around through the weekend. Right now, highs may only make it to the low to mid 40s. Those numbers may have to be lowered the closer we get to the event. Enough moisture may be in place that some rain is possible. It also looks like portions of the viewing area could, and I stress the word could, see a wintry mix Friday night and Saturday night. We'll continue to keep our eye on this situation and keep you up to date.
Have a magnificent Monday!
We started off cold again this morning with temperatures at or below freezing across the Big Country. Temperatures should warm a little above average for this time of year this afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Breezy conditions should return with winds from the south-southwest at 10 to 20 mph. The elevated fire danger continues, so please follow all the necessary precautions in order to prevent fires. If you wondering exactly what those precautions are, you can look at the post by Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi from yesterday.
Warm and breezy conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday. Skies will be mostly sunny with highs in the low to mid 70s.
Changes begin Thursday night into Friday morning with the arrival of a cold front. This front looks to have arctic air behind it. Chilly temperatures are expected to hang around through the weekend. Right now, highs may only make it to the low to mid 40s. Those numbers may have to be lowered the closer we get to the event. Enough moisture may be in place that some rain is possible. It also looks like portions of the viewing area could, and I stress the word could, see a wintry mix Friday night and Saturday night. We'll continue to keep our eye on this situation and keep you up to date.
Have a magnificent Monday!
Sunday, February 12, 2006
Dry Air and Strong Winds A Dangerous Combination
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
The strong, gusty North winds across the area today combined with the very dry air fanned numerous grass fires across Callahan and Eastland counties.
The good news is, as we head into tonight, the winds will relax and eventually become calm by morning. The bad news is, by Monday afternoon winds will swing around to the South-Southwest and remain breezy through the majority of the work-week. In other words, the fire danger will remain high the entire work-week.
We haven't talked about this enough lately, but please remember, burn bans are still in effect across the entire KRBC viewing area. No outdoor burning of any kind is allowed. Please, keep all cigarette butts inside vehicles and dispose of them properly. Use extra caution when doing any kind of welding work outdoors as well. Hold off on the welding if at all possible. Also, remember to use caution when driving on dry ground, if possible, keep all vehicles on the paved roadways. A hot engine block could be enough to spark a fire on the dry brush around the area.
Temperatures will continue to warm through the week as well. Highs will climb from the middle 60s Monday into the middle to upper 70s Thursday.
Thursday night another strong cold front will push through the area. This front will knock afternoon highs down at least into the middle 40s, if not cooler. As we mentioned yesterday, there is a chance of enough moisture hanging around for showers Friday and Saturday. There is also a slim chance of some wintry precipitation Friday night. We have a much better handle of the frozed precipitation chances later into the week.
The strong, gusty North winds across the area today combined with the very dry air fanned numerous grass fires across Callahan and Eastland counties.
The good news is, as we head into tonight, the winds will relax and eventually become calm by morning. The bad news is, by Monday afternoon winds will swing around to the South-Southwest and remain breezy through the majority of the work-week. In other words, the fire danger will remain high the entire work-week.
We haven't talked about this enough lately, but please remember, burn bans are still in effect across the entire KRBC viewing area. No outdoor burning of any kind is allowed. Please, keep all cigarette butts inside vehicles and dispose of them properly. Use extra caution when doing any kind of welding work outdoors as well. Hold off on the welding if at all possible. Also, remember to use caution when driving on dry ground, if possible, keep all vehicles on the paved roadways. A hot engine block could be enough to spark a fire on the dry brush around the area.
Temperatures will continue to warm through the week as well. Highs will climb from the middle 60s Monday into the middle to upper 70s Thursday.
Thursday night another strong cold front will push through the area. This front will knock afternoon highs down at least into the middle 40s, if not cooler. As we mentioned yesterday, there is a chance of enough moisture hanging around for showers Friday and Saturday. There is also a slim chance of some wintry precipitation Friday night. We have a much better handle of the frozed precipitation chances later into the week.
Saturday, February 11, 2006
Winter Has Returned
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
After blustery day across the Big Country today, a bitterly cold night is on tap. Overnight lows will crater down into the middle to upper teens to the low 20s.
Sunday will be another breezy day, first with winds from the Southwest, then shift to the North-Northwest with the passage of another cold front. Highs will be able to climb into the middle to upper 50s before the front arrives.
Monday through Thursday will bring us much warmer temperatures and unfortunately dry and breezy conditions. Highs will climb from the low 60s Monday into the middle 70s by Thursday. With the breezy conditions expected, fire danger will be high next week.
The next big change on the horizon will be as we enter next weekend. Another strong cold front will push through the Big Country Thursday into Friday. This front will knock temperatures down into the low 40s at least. This system, unlike previous systems, looks like it will carry moisture with it, and we could see chance for rain, or even sleet and snow Friday night. Stay tuned because as we get closer to next weekend, we will have a much better handle on how things will turn out.
After blustery day across the Big Country today, a bitterly cold night is on tap. Overnight lows will crater down into the middle to upper teens to the low 20s.
Sunday will be another breezy day, first with winds from the Southwest, then shift to the North-Northwest with the passage of another cold front. Highs will be able to climb into the middle to upper 50s before the front arrives.
Monday through Thursday will bring us much warmer temperatures and unfortunately dry and breezy conditions. Highs will climb from the low 60s Monday into the middle 70s by Thursday. With the breezy conditions expected, fire danger will be high next week.
The next big change on the horizon will be as we enter next weekend. Another strong cold front will push through the Big Country Thursday into Friday. This front will knock temperatures down into the low 40s at least. This system, unlike previous systems, looks like it will carry moisture with it, and we could see chance for rain, or even sleet and snow Friday night. Stay tuned because as we get closer to next weekend, we will have a much better handle on how things will turn out.
Friday, February 10, 2006
Big Changes Today
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
I hope you enjoy the new, updated graphics and fell to KRBC. No big changes here in the weather department. About the only change will be a brand new 7-Day Forecast. Now here on KRBC you will always be able to see the next weekend in your forecast.
Speaking of that forecast, what a difference a day makes. A strong cold front blew in this morning and with it came a few light showers and even some spotty sleet! The air in the upper levels of the atmosphere is cold enough to support the frozen precipitation and the downdrafts within the showers were strong enough that the precipiation stayed frozen all the way to the surface. Now, with surface temperatures in the 40s, the sleet did not last long before it melted.
Tonight will be very chilly across the area with lows in the middle to lower 20s. Winds will still remain a bit breezy averaging 5 to 15 miles per hour.
A secondary push of colder air will arrive Saturday afternoon. With that push afternoon highs will only climb into the middle 40s.
Unfortunately the remainded of the extended forecast looks dry. We will see another cold front with the potential of a few showers if we can get enough moisture into the area by next Thursday.
I hope you enjoy the new, updated graphics and fell to KRBC. No big changes here in the weather department. About the only change will be a brand new 7-Day Forecast. Now here on KRBC you will always be able to see the next weekend in your forecast.
Speaking of that forecast, what a difference a day makes. A strong cold front blew in this morning and with it came a few light showers and even some spotty sleet! The air in the upper levels of the atmosphere is cold enough to support the frozen precipitation and the downdrafts within the showers were strong enough that the precipiation stayed frozen all the way to the surface. Now, with surface temperatures in the 40s, the sleet did not last long before it melted.
Tonight will be very chilly across the area with lows in the middle to lower 20s. Winds will still remain a bit breezy averaging 5 to 15 miles per hour.
A secondary push of colder air will arrive Saturday afternoon. With that push afternoon highs will only climb into the middle 40s.
Unfortunately the remainded of the extended forecast looks dry. We will see another cold front with the potential of a few showers if we can get enough moisture into the area by next Thursday.
Winter Weather Has Returned
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
A cold front is moving across the Big Country this morning. Behind the front is some of the coldest air we have seen in about two months. We have also had some showers in association with the front. Amounts have been very light, if any at all. The chance for rain should come to an end this morning. Skies are expected to clear through the day. Highs occurred early this morning before the front arrived. Temperatures for the bulk of today will be in the upper 30s to upper 40s across the viewing area. A Wind Advisory is in effect for most of the area today. Winds will be sustained from the north at 15 to 25 mph. Gusts as high as 40 mph are possible. A Red Flag Warning is in effect until tonight for Stephens and Eastland counties. Be careful with the winds out there today and be sure to bundle up. It will feel a lot colder than it actually is.
You'll need to protect your pets, plants and pipes for the next few nights. Lows look to bottom out in the low to mid 20s. A few areas may make it down to the upper teens on Sunday morning. As far as highs go this weekend, Saturday will be the colder of the two with highs in the low to mid 40s. Breezy conditions are expected tomorrow, so winds chills will likely be in the 30s. High temperatures return into the mid to upper 50s on Sunday.
Looking into early next week, Monday and Tuesday look pretty good. Mostly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 60s are expected.
Have a fantastic Friday!
A cold front is moving across the Big Country this morning. Behind the front is some of the coldest air we have seen in about two months. We have also had some showers in association with the front. Amounts have been very light, if any at all. The chance for rain should come to an end this morning. Skies are expected to clear through the day. Highs occurred early this morning before the front arrived. Temperatures for the bulk of today will be in the upper 30s to upper 40s across the viewing area. A Wind Advisory is in effect for most of the area today. Winds will be sustained from the north at 15 to 25 mph. Gusts as high as 40 mph are possible. A Red Flag Warning is in effect until tonight for Stephens and Eastland counties. Be careful with the winds out there today and be sure to bundle up. It will feel a lot colder than it actually is.
You'll need to protect your pets, plants and pipes for the next few nights. Lows look to bottom out in the low to mid 20s. A few areas may make it down to the upper teens on Sunday morning. As far as highs go this weekend, Saturday will be the colder of the two with highs in the low to mid 40s. Breezy conditions are expected tomorrow, so winds chills will likely be in the 30s. High temperatures return into the mid to upper 50s on Sunday.
Looking into early next week, Monday and Tuesday look pretty good. Mostly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 60s are expected.
Have a fantastic Friday!
Thursday, February 09, 2006
Rain, Rain Come This Way
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
We're finally going to see a little bit of relief from the dry conditions, unfortunately it won't last long though. An upper-level system is working its way in from the West tonight. This system will help to moisten up the surface and eventually produce light showers across the area overnight.
Friday, a strong cold front with Arctic air behind it will arrive early. Winds will average anywhere between 15 and 30 miles per hour Friday. As the upper level system passes over the top of the cold air, showers will be possible through early Friday. By Friday afternoon skies will begin to clear. Temperatures will only reach the upper 40s to lower 50s early Friday, then likely drop into the lower 40s by afternoon. Wind chills will average in the 30s throughout the day.
Wind advisories are already in effect across the Big Country for Friday. Red Flag Warnings have been issued for Stephens, Eastland and Comanche Counties.
I've mentioned here in the past that a pattern change was coming and it looks like this is the beginning of that change. Long term models keep the polar jet stream position over the Central and Southern United States through next week. With the colder air in place and storm systems passing, we could see more chances for showers. I stress could because we will need those storm systems to pass right over top of us or just to the South. If the system pass too far to the North, all we'll get out of them is more dry air, which is exactly what we don't need.
We're finally going to see a little bit of relief from the dry conditions, unfortunately it won't last long though. An upper-level system is working its way in from the West tonight. This system will help to moisten up the surface and eventually produce light showers across the area overnight.
Friday, a strong cold front with Arctic air behind it will arrive early. Winds will average anywhere between 15 and 30 miles per hour Friday. As the upper level system passes over the top of the cold air, showers will be possible through early Friday. By Friday afternoon skies will begin to clear. Temperatures will only reach the upper 40s to lower 50s early Friday, then likely drop into the lower 40s by afternoon. Wind chills will average in the 30s throughout the day.
Wind advisories are already in effect across the Big Country for Friday. Red Flag Warnings have been issued for Stephens, Eastland and Comanche Counties.
I've mentioned here in the past that a pattern change was coming and it looks like this is the beginning of that change. Long term models keep the polar jet stream position over the Central and Southern United States through next week. With the colder air in place and storm systems passing, we could see more chances for showers. I stress could because we will need those storm systems to pass right over top of us or just to the South. If the system pass too far to the North, all we'll get out of them is more dry air, which is exactly what we don't need.
Chance For Rain Is Looking Better
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector....
We started off chilly again this morning with temperatures in the 30s. It looks like another mild afternoon is on tap for us with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Winds could be breezy at times from the south at 5 to 15 mph.
Tonight is when changes will begin for us. A cold front is expected to arrive late tonight and into tomorrow morning. An upper level low to our west in Mexico is helping to spread some moisture in our direction. It looks like we will have enough built into the area by the time the front arrives that some showers and even a few thunderstorms are possible tonight and Friday. The best chances are still in the southeastern portions of the Big Country. Right now, I'm going with a 20% chance tonight beginning around midnight and a 30% chance tomorrow. This front is bringing some arctic air with it, so temperatures look to be below average through the weekend. Windy conditions are expected tomorrow with winds from the north at 15 to 25 mph, so it will definitely feel colder than the low 50s we should see for highs on Friday.
Skies clear out for Saturday and Sunday. Both mornings will likely be cold with lows in the low to mid 20s. Highs on Saturday look to reach the mid to upper 40s, while Sunday should be a little warmer in the mid 5os.
Have a terrific Thursday!
We started off chilly again this morning with temperatures in the 30s. It looks like another mild afternoon is on tap for us with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Winds could be breezy at times from the south at 5 to 15 mph.
Tonight is when changes will begin for us. A cold front is expected to arrive late tonight and into tomorrow morning. An upper level low to our west in Mexico is helping to spread some moisture in our direction. It looks like we will have enough built into the area by the time the front arrives that some showers and even a few thunderstorms are possible tonight and Friday. The best chances are still in the southeastern portions of the Big Country. Right now, I'm going with a 20% chance tonight beginning around midnight and a 30% chance tomorrow. This front is bringing some arctic air with it, so temperatures look to be below average through the weekend. Windy conditions are expected tomorrow with winds from the north at 15 to 25 mph, so it will definitely feel colder than the low 50s we should see for highs on Friday.
Skies clear out for Saturday and Sunday. Both mornings will likely be cold with lows in the low to mid 20s. Highs on Saturday look to reach the mid to upper 40s, while Sunday should be a little warmer in the mid 5os.
Have a terrific Thursday!
Wednesday, February 08, 2006
Cooler Weather Is On The Way
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
You know, every once in a while a forecast busts. Today was one of those days. High temperatures across the Big Country climbed into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Forecasted highs were for middle 60s to upper 60s. Here's what happened. The cold front we expected to push into the Big Country this morning "washed out," or basically went stationairy and the system associated with it continued to move East. So, our winds only shifted to the North for an hour this morning at Abilene Regional Airport. Winds quickly shifted back to the South. Combined with dry air, we quickly and easily warmed higher than the origional forecast.
Now, on to the future. Thursday looks to be a fairly pleasant afternoon with sunny skies and highs in the middle to upper 60s areawide. Thursday night another cold front, this one much strong will approach the area.
As this front approaches, if Mother Nature can get enough moisture in place, we could see a few scattered showers across the Central and Southern viewing area. By Friday, as the front pushes through, rain chances and clouds will quickly leave the area. Behind the front, expect gusty North winds averaging 15 to 25 miles per hour. High temperatures Friday will only reach the upper 40s to lower 50s so keep your jacket handy.
Saturday looks to be another cool day with highs only in the upper 40s.
Sunday and Monday look to be sunny to partly cloudy and warm with highs back into to upper 50s to lower 60s.
Longterm models continue to hint at some fairly cold, Arctic air moving into the Nation by Friday the 17th through Sunday the 19th. More on that in the days to come.
You know, every once in a while a forecast busts. Today was one of those days. High temperatures across the Big Country climbed into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Forecasted highs were for middle 60s to upper 60s. Here's what happened. The cold front we expected to push into the Big Country this morning "washed out," or basically went stationairy and the system associated with it continued to move East. So, our winds only shifted to the North for an hour this morning at Abilene Regional Airport. Winds quickly shifted back to the South. Combined with dry air, we quickly and easily warmed higher than the origional forecast.
Now, on to the future. Thursday looks to be a fairly pleasant afternoon with sunny skies and highs in the middle to upper 60s areawide. Thursday night another cold front, this one much strong will approach the area.
As this front approaches, if Mother Nature can get enough moisture in place, we could see a few scattered showers across the Central and Southern viewing area. By Friday, as the front pushes through, rain chances and clouds will quickly leave the area. Behind the front, expect gusty North winds averaging 15 to 25 miles per hour. High temperatures Friday will only reach the upper 40s to lower 50s so keep your jacket handy.
Saturday looks to be another cool day with highs only in the upper 40s.
Sunday and Monday look to be sunny to partly cloudy and warm with highs back into to upper 50s to lower 60s.
Longterm models continue to hint at some fairly cold, Arctic air moving into the Nation by Friday the 17th through Sunday the 19th. More on that in the days to come.
Wednesday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off chilly this morning with most locations in the 30s. Brownwood dropped down into the upper 20s. A weak cold front will move through the area today, but it won't do much for us except shift our winds to the northwest. Winds should continue to be on the lighter side at 5 to 10 mph. As far as temperatures go, we will be above average again today with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
You'll need to take care of the pets, plants and pipes tonight since below freezing temperatures are expected. Lows will likely be in the mid to upper 20s.
Thursday looks to be another pleasant day with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 60s.
Changes should begin on Friday. A cold front is expected to move through the area during the day. This will help bring temperatures down into the upper 50s for highs, which is what we average this time of year. There is a slight chance of a few showers on Friday due to the front. The best shot at rain looks to be in the southeastern portions of the viewing area. That is where there may be just enough moisture built up that some rain may fall. It won't be much, if anything at all. Below average temperatures should stick around for the weekend since this front looks to have a little arctic air behind it. Right now, highs should range from the upper 40s on Saturday to the mid 50s on Sunday.
Have a wonderful Wednesday!
We started off chilly this morning with most locations in the 30s. Brownwood dropped down into the upper 20s. A weak cold front will move through the area today, but it won't do much for us except shift our winds to the northwest. Winds should continue to be on the lighter side at 5 to 10 mph. As far as temperatures go, we will be above average again today with highs in the mid to upper 60s.
You'll need to take care of the pets, plants and pipes tonight since below freezing temperatures are expected. Lows will likely be in the mid to upper 20s.
Thursday looks to be another pleasant day with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 60s.
Changes should begin on Friday. A cold front is expected to move through the area during the day. This will help bring temperatures down into the upper 50s for highs, which is what we average this time of year. There is a slight chance of a few showers on Friday due to the front. The best shot at rain looks to be in the southeastern portions of the viewing area. That is where there may be just enough moisture built up that some rain may fall. It won't be much, if anything at all. Below average temperatures should stick around for the weekend since this front looks to have a little arctic air behind it. Right now, highs should range from the upper 40s on Saturday to the mid 50s on Sunday.
Have a wonderful Wednesday!
Tuesday, February 07, 2006
Arctic Air Is Building... Wanting To Move South...
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
Winter may not be done with us just yet. More on that in a minute.
After a very chilly start in the middle to upper 20s this morning we warmed nicely back into the middle 60s areawide. Expect a similar night tonight, just not quite as cold. I only expect lows to drop down into the upper 20s and lower 30s.
A cold front will arrive late tonight into Wednesday morning. This front won't push in with the strong winds we saw with Sunday's front, but it will keep afternoon highs in the lower 60s to upper 50s Thursday.
Beginning Thursday night and through Friday it still looks like moisture will try to return to the Big Country. Notice I said "try." Unfortunately some of the computer models have backed off from our slight chances of rain down to just a slim chance. I'm not dropping all chances of rain from the forecast just yet, but I'm not too excited about the chance of seeing measurable rainfall. For now though, Friday night looks to be our best shot for showers/drizzle.
By Saturday a stronger cold front will push any and all moisture out of the area and leave us with cool temperatures and clear skies. It looks like we'll see afternoon highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area.
Looking at a couple of longer term models, a couple of things stand out. Number one, some of the models are trying to bring a cut-off low in from the West next Monday and Tuesday. If this were to pan out, we could be looking at rain chances then. Give me another 48 hours before I jump on that rain wagon. I've seen models show cut-off systems like this one day, then the next the system is no where to be found.
The other standout is a large area of Arctic air making a plung South. We're talking about air colder than some parts of the country have seen this Winter. Now, here's the catch, this is a 10 day out computer model. These models have a very large margin of error when you go 3 days out, much less another week on top of that. Some of the things you can see from these long range models are trends. Now, the trend would be that we could be setting up for a colder second half of winter than we saw for the first half.
Personally, I think there is a very good chance of a colder second half of February taking place. Only time will tell, but I wouldn't put up your winter clothes just yet.
Winter may not be done with us just yet. More on that in a minute.
After a very chilly start in the middle to upper 20s this morning we warmed nicely back into the middle 60s areawide. Expect a similar night tonight, just not quite as cold. I only expect lows to drop down into the upper 20s and lower 30s.
A cold front will arrive late tonight into Wednesday morning. This front won't push in with the strong winds we saw with Sunday's front, but it will keep afternoon highs in the lower 60s to upper 50s Thursday.
Beginning Thursday night and through Friday it still looks like moisture will try to return to the Big Country. Notice I said "try." Unfortunately some of the computer models have backed off from our slight chances of rain down to just a slim chance. I'm not dropping all chances of rain from the forecast just yet, but I'm not too excited about the chance of seeing measurable rainfall. For now though, Friday night looks to be our best shot for showers/drizzle.
By Saturday a stronger cold front will push any and all moisture out of the area and leave us with cool temperatures and clear skies. It looks like we'll see afternoon highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area.
Looking at a couple of longer term models, a couple of things stand out. Number one, some of the models are trying to bring a cut-off low in from the West next Monday and Tuesday. If this were to pan out, we could be looking at rain chances then. Give me another 48 hours before I jump on that rain wagon. I've seen models show cut-off systems like this one day, then the next the system is no where to be found.
The other standout is a large area of Arctic air making a plung South. We're talking about air colder than some parts of the country have seen this Winter. Now, here's the catch, this is a 10 day out computer model. These models have a very large margin of error when you go 3 days out, much less another week on top of that. Some of the things you can see from these long range models are trends. Now, the trend would be that we could be setting up for a colder second half of winter than we saw for the first half.
Personally, I think there is a very good chance of a colder second half of February taking place. Only time will tell, but I wouldn't put up your winter clothes just yet.
Tuesday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off cold this morning across the entire Big Country. Temperatures bottomed out in the low 20s to low 30s. The reason we got so cold was due to what we call radiational cooling. Last night's conditions were optimal for it. You basically need clear skies, light winds, and a dry airmass. So while you need a coat this morning, by this afternoon you will just need some long sleeves. Highs will reach the low to mid 60s. The good news is that the winds should die down quite a bit today. Winds will be from the south-southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
A weak cold front will move through late tonight and into tomorrow. It really won't affect our temperatures, but will shift our winds back to the northwest at about 5 to 10 mph. No rain is expected with this front. Highs should be in the low to mid 60s again tomorrow.
Thursday looks to be pleasant with highs still a little above average for this time of year and mostly sunny skies.
Changes will likely begin on Friday with the arrival of another cold front. An upper level low to our west could help bring in enough moisture for us to see some showers Friday night and possibly early Saturday. The air behind this front looks to be of arctic origin, so temperatures on Saturday may be well below average for this time of year. We'll continue to keep you posted.
Have a terrific Tuesday!
We started off cold this morning across the entire Big Country. Temperatures bottomed out in the low 20s to low 30s. The reason we got so cold was due to what we call radiational cooling. Last night's conditions were optimal for it. You basically need clear skies, light winds, and a dry airmass. So while you need a coat this morning, by this afternoon you will just need some long sleeves. Highs will reach the low to mid 60s. The good news is that the winds should die down quite a bit today. Winds will be from the south-southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
A weak cold front will move through late tonight and into tomorrow. It really won't affect our temperatures, but will shift our winds back to the northwest at about 5 to 10 mph. No rain is expected with this front. Highs should be in the low to mid 60s again tomorrow.
Thursday looks to be pleasant with highs still a little above average for this time of year and mostly sunny skies.
Changes will likely begin on Friday with the arrival of another cold front. An upper level low to our west could help bring in enough moisture for us to see some showers Friday night and possibly early Saturday. The air behind this front looks to be of arctic origin, so temperatures on Saturday may be well below average for this time of year. We'll continue to keep you posted.
Have a terrific Tuesday!
Monday, February 06, 2006
Monday Afternoon Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
Believe it or not, we may see some shower activity across the Big Country Friday night and Saturday. More on that in a minute.
First though, how about that cold front that blew in last night? I've heard from some folks who had their lawn furniture overturned and saw an impressive dust cloud roll in with the front. Wind speeds were sustained from the North at 33 mph gusting up to 48 mph at Abilene Regional Airport at 8pm last night. Unfortunately, that dust is all we saw fall from the sky with this frontal passage.
We will feel the effects of another cold front late Wednesday. This front will cool us off even more. What's happening is that Arctic air is slowly filtering into the U.S. As it does, it moderates less and less with each frontal passage. Wednesday night's front will knock afternoon highs down into the middle to upper 50s from Thursday. (Climatologically where they should be!)
Then Friday something strange happens, something that should happen more than it does, moisture should begin to return to the area. First in middle levels of the atmosphere in the form of clouds, then at the surface with higher dewpoints and relative humidity values. This all in advance of another cold front due to arrive Friday night.
As that front arrives, we will begin to carry a slight to 20% chance of scattered showers across the area. Rain chances will come to an end Saturday as high pressure builds into the area. But hey, at least we'll have a chance for showers for about a 24 hour period.
Believe it or not, we may see some shower activity across the Big Country Friday night and Saturday. More on that in a minute.
First though, how about that cold front that blew in last night? I've heard from some folks who had their lawn furniture overturned and saw an impressive dust cloud roll in with the front. Wind speeds were sustained from the North at 33 mph gusting up to 48 mph at Abilene Regional Airport at 8pm last night. Unfortunately, that dust is all we saw fall from the sky with this frontal passage.
We will feel the effects of another cold front late Wednesday. This front will cool us off even more. What's happening is that Arctic air is slowly filtering into the U.S. As it does, it moderates less and less with each frontal passage. Wednesday night's front will knock afternoon highs down into the middle to upper 50s from Thursday. (Climatologically where they should be!)
Then Friday something strange happens, something that should happen more than it does, moisture should begin to return to the area. First in middle levels of the atmosphere in the form of clouds, then at the surface with higher dewpoints and relative humidity values. This all in advance of another cold front due to arrive Friday night.
As that front arrives, we will begin to carry a slight to 20% chance of scattered showers across the area. Rain chances will come to an end Saturday as high pressure builds into the area. But hey, at least we'll have a chance for showers for about a 24 hour period.
Monday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off chilly this morning with most locations in the 30s. Brownwood, however, only managed to make it down into the low 40s. A cold front moved through the area last night so it will be much cooler today than yesterday. Highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 50s. A few locations, such as Brownwood, may make it into the low 60s. Our average high for this time of year is in the upper 50s so we'll be right on target for today. Windy conditions will continue with winds from the north-northwest at 15 to 25 mph. You'll want to put your trip to the lake on hold since there is a Lake Wind Advisory in effect for most of the area until 4 p.m. this afternoon. Brown, Coleman, Coke, Nolan, Runnels, and Taylor are the counties under the advisory. Comanche, Eastland, and Stephens counties are under a Wind Advisory and Red Flag Warning until 4 p.m. this afternoon. We all need to continue to be careful with the elevated fire danger.
Tomorrow our winds shift back to the southwest so temperatures will warm back up into the mid to upper 60s. Breezy conditions will be likely with winds from the southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Two more cold fronts are expected during the work week. The first is expected Tuesday night and into Wednesday. The other should arrive on Friday. Unfortunately, it looks like both will be dry frontal passages. If you have been waiting for cooler temperatures, this may be your week. That first front will likely cool temperatures back down to average or even a little below for this of year. The second front on Friday may usher in some arctic air behind it, which will send temperatures well below average. We'll just have to wait and see.
Have a magnificent Monday!
We started off chilly this morning with most locations in the 30s. Brownwood, however, only managed to make it down into the low 40s. A cold front moved through the area last night so it will be much cooler today than yesterday. Highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 50s. A few locations, such as Brownwood, may make it into the low 60s. Our average high for this time of year is in the upper 50s so we'll be right on target for today. Windy conditions will continue with winds from the north-northwest at 15 to 25 mph. You'll want to put your trip to the lake on hold since there is a Lake Wind Advisory in effect for most of the area until 4 p.m. this afternoon. Brown, Coleman, Coke, Nolan, Runnels, and Taylor are the counties under the advisory. Comanche, Eastland, and Stephens counties are under a Wind Advisory and Red Flag Warning until 4 p.m. this afternoon. We all need to continue to be careful with the elevated fire danger.
Tomorrow our winds shift back to the southwest so temperatures will warm back up into the mid to upper 60s. Breezy conditions will be likely with winds from the southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Two more cold fronts are expected during the work week. The first is expected Tuesday night and into Wednesday. The other should arrive on Friday. Unfortunately, it looks like both will be dry frontal passages. If you have been waiting for cooler temperatures, this may be your week. That first front will likely cool temperatures back down to average or even a little below for this of year. The second front on Friday may usher in some arctic air behind it, which will send temperatures well below average. We'll just have to wait and see.
Have a magnificent Monday!
Friday, February 03, 2006
Friday Afternoon Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
What a day! Temperatures across the Big Country warmed into the lower 60s today behind a cold front that arrived early this morning. I still have to admit, even from a meteorologist's standpoint, it is wierd to say that we warmed up to above average, after a cold frontal passage. The reason is simple, the very dry ground and dry air at the surface is much easier to warm up than moist ground and a moist atmosphere.
Saturday looks to be a copy of today, with a cool North wind and temperatures warming back into the lower 60s.
Super Bowl Sunday could be a dangerous fire weather day. Right now winds are forecasted to be right at, or just below criteria strength for a red flag warning. Either way, winds will be strong, anywhere from 10 to 25 miles per hour. There will most certainly be an elevated fire danger. So, please hold off on bar-be-cueing for the Super Bowl this year. High temperatures Sunday will warm into the lower to middle 70s.
By Monday a cold front will arrive knocking afternoon highs back down into the middle to upper 50s for the first half of next week. Rain chances remain non-existent through the extended.
What a day! Temperatures across the Big Country warmed into the lower 60s today behind a cold front that arrived early this morning. I still have to admit, even from a meteorologist's standpoint, it is wierd to say that we warmed up to above average, after a cold frontal passage. The reason is simple, the very dry ground and dry air at the surface is much easier to warm up than moist ground and a moist atmosphere.
Saturday looks to be a copy of today, with a cool North wind and temperatures warming back into the lower 60s.
Super Bowl Sunday could be a dangerous fire weather day. Right now winds are forecasted to be right at, or just below criteria strength for a red flag warning. Either way, winds will be strong, anywhere from 10 to 25 miles per hour. There will most certainly be an elevated fire danger. So, please hold off on bar-be-cueing for the Super Bowl this year. High temperatures Sunday will warm into the lower to middle 70s.
By Monday a cold front will arrive knocking afternoon highs back down into the middle to upper 50s for the first half of next week. Rain chances remain non-existent through the extended.
Friday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
A cold front moved through the Big Country this morning. Temperatures are continuing to cool down as cold air filters into the area. Some rain moved through with the front, but it was too dry at the surface to see anything significant. Another band of rain that was stretching from the Red River to the southern Texas panhandle earlier this morning continues to move towards the southeast. A light shower or some sprinkles can't be ruled out through the morning hours. Total amounts, if any, will be very light. Decreasing clouds are expected through the day, so mostly sunny skies should be seen by this afternoon. Highs will only be in the upper 50s to low 60s today. It will also be breezy with winds from the north-northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Tomorrow should be a nice day overall. Skies will likely be mostly sunny with highs in the low to mid 60s. Winds should lighten up to about 5 to 10 mph from the north-northwest.
Warm and windy conditions are still looking good for Sunday. We'll likely see an elevated fire danger for that day, so extra caution will need to be taken to help prevent fires.
Another cold front is expected to arrive Sunday night. No rain is expected. The colder air behind this front looks to last a little longer. Temperatures for the first half of the work week will likely be at or below average for this time of year. It finally looks like we have some winter-like temperatures for the winter season.
Have a fantastic Friday!
A cold front moved through the Big Country this morning. Temperatures are continuing to cool down as cold air filters into the area. Some rain moved through with the front, but it was too dry at the surface to see anything significant. Another band of rain that was stretching from the Red River to the southern Texas panhandle earlier this morning continues to move towards the southeast. A light shower or some sprinkles can't be ruled out through the morning hours. Total amounts, if any, will be very light. Decreasing clouds are expected through the day, so mostly sunny skies should be seen by this afternoon. Highs will only be in the upper 50s to low 60s today. It will also be breezy with winds from the north-northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Tomorrow should be a nice day overall. Skies will likely be mostly sunny with highs in the low to mid 60s. Winds should lighten up to about 5 to 10 mph from the north-northwest.
Warm and windy conditions are still looking good for Sunday. We'll likely see an elevated fire danger for that day, so extra caution will need to be taken to help prevent fires.
Another cold front is expected to arrive Sunday night. No rain is expected. The colder air behind this front looks to last a little longer. Temperatures for the first half of the work week will likely be at or below average for this time of year. It finally looks like we have some winter-like temperatures for the winter season.
Have a fantastic Friday!
Thursday, February 02, 2006
Thursday Afternoon Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
It really is getting difficult to argue with this absolutely beautiful weather we are having. But, we really are in dire need of some nasty, dreary rainy days. Unfortunately it just doesn't look likely in the near future.
First though, today is a big day in a meteorologist's year, Groundhog today. This morning at Gobbler's Knob, Punxsutawney Phil, the prognosticator of prognosticators came out of his home and saw his shadow. From www.groundhog.org, here is what Phil had to say at sunrise this morning:
"It is said that imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. Around the country there are many imitators of me.
In Harrisburg there is Gus who appears on TV working for the lottery.
Then all around town, Cute groundhog statues abound. They all look like me, I found.
Today on the Knob as I'm doing my job, I don't like this likeness of me.
It's my shadow I see. Six more weeks of mild winter there will be."
The thing here is, the season of Winter does continue for another six weeks anyhow, but oh what fun Phil is.
As for us, we are still waiting for Winter to even get started. We will be seeing more seasonal weather though as a series of cold fronts arrive in West Texas starting Friday.
Quickly though Sunday winds will return to the South with the potential of a fire weather danger day. So, I know, I'm the bad guy here, please hold off on any outdoor bar-be-cueing on Super Bowl Sunday. Please cook the meat indoors this year as the ground will remain dry, and the area will remain a tinderbox this weekend.
Cooler weather will return Monday with afternoon highs in the upper 50s.
Some colder air could be impacting the area next weekend, but we will have to wait and see how things evolve.
It really is getting difficult to argue with this absolutely beautiful weather we are having. But, we really are in dire need of some nasty, dreary rainy days. Unfortunately it just doesn't look likely in the near future.
First though, today is a big day in a meteorologist's year, Groundhog today. This morning at Gobbler's Knob, Punxsutawney Phil, the prognosticator of prognosticators came out of his home and saw his shadow. From www.groundhog.org, here is what Phil had to say at sunrise this morning:
"It is said that imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. Around the country there are many imitators of me.
In Harrisburg there is Gus who appears on TV working for the lottery.
Then all around town, Cute groundhog statues abound. They all look like me, I found.
Today on the Knob as I'm doing my job, I don't like this likeness of me.
It's my shadow I see. Six more weeks of mild winter there will be."
The thing here is, the season of Winter does continue for another six weeks anyhow, but oh what fun Phil is.
As for us, we are still waiting for Winter to even get started. We will be seeing more seasonal weather though as a series of cold fronts arrive in West Texas starting Friday.
Quickly though Sunday winds will return to the South with the potential of a fire weather danger day. So, I know, I'm the bad guy here, please hold off on any outdoor bar-be-cueing on Super Bowl Sunday. Please cook the meat indoors this year as the ground will remain dry, and the area will remain a tinderbox this weekend.
Cooler weather will return Monday with afternoon highs in the upper 50s.
Some colder air could be impacting the area next weekend, but we will have to wait and see how things evolve.
Happy Groundhog Day!
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
In case you haven't heard, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow this morning. This means we will have six more weeks of winter. Of course, here in the Big Country, we haven't had much of a winter yet so maybe we'll actually see some colder temperatures now. We'll just have to wait and see.
Today will not feel much like winter that is for sure. Highs should reach the low to mid 70s, which is well above average for this time of year. Winds could be a little breezy at times from the west-northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
A cold front is expected to move through the area tomorrow. This will help cool us down, but only into the low to mid 60s for highs. Winds will be from the northwest at 10 to 15 mph. It doesn't look like we will see any rain with this frontal passage.
The cooler air sticks around for Saturday, but warm and windy conditions look to return for Sunday ahead of another cold front. That front will likely cool us down to temperatures that are right about or just slightly above what we expect to see this time of year. Unfortunately though, no rain is expected with this front either. In fact, it looks like we will probably be dry for at least the next week. We need to continue to be careful since the fire danger is not going away anytime soon.
Have a great Groundhog Day!
In case you haven't heard, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow this morning. This means we will have six more weeks of winter. Of course, here in the Big Country, we haven't had much of a winter yet so maybe we'll actually see some colder temperatures now. We'll just have to wait and see.
Today will not feel much like winter that is for sure. Highs should reach the low to mid 70s, which is well above average for this time of year. Winds could be a little breezy at times from the west-northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
A cold front is expected to move through the area tomorrow. This will help cool us down, but only into the low to mid 60s for highs. Winds will be from the northwest at 10 to 15 mph. It doesn't look like we will see any rain with this frontal passage.
The cooler air sticks around for Saturday, but warm and windy conditions look to return for Sunday ahead of another cold front. That front will likely cool us down to temperatures that are right about or just slightly above what we expect to see this time of year. Unfortunately though, no rain is expected with this front either. In fact, it looks like we will probably be dry for at least the next week. We need to continue to be careful since the fire danger is not going away anytime soon.
Have a great Groundhog Day!
Wednesday, February 01, 2006
Wednesday Afternoon Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
The clouds really hung tough across the Big Country today and that kept our afternoon highs from reaching forecasted numbers. All in all though still a very pleasant day across the area.
It looks like some big changes are on the way, we're talking a week from Saturday though. Between now and then we will see a couple more fire weather days. By Friday a decent shot of cool air will filter into the area behind a cold front that will keep winds sustained around 10 to 20 miles per hour. Right now the National Weather Service is not anticipating issued an advisory, but if the forecast changes between now and then that could change.
Saturday looks to be a cool day with highs struggling to reach 60 across the area. Then quickly Sunday winds will return to the South-Southwest in response to an upper level system forming in the Central Plains.
Early Monday morning another decent shot of cool air arrives, but again, no rain chances.
The big changes I mentioned above looks to be a fairly decent pattern change across the entire United States. Arctic air looks to invade the Eastern third of the country beginning February 10th into the 11th. This would put us on the edge of the Arctic air mass, which should cool our temperatures down to at least a bit below normal.
As we usually say, stay tuned. A lot can change in the next 10 days!
The clouds really hung tough across the Big Country today and that kept our afternoon highs from reaching forecasted numbers. All in all though still a very pleasant day across the area.
It looks like some big changes are on the way, we're talking a week from Saturday though. Between now and then we will see a couple more fire weather days. By Friday a decent shot of cool air will filter into the area behind a cold front that will keep winds sustained around 10 to 20 miles per hour. Right now the National Weather Service is not anticipating issued an advisory, but if the forecast changes between now and then that could change.
Saturday looks to be a cool day with highs struggling to reach 60 across the area. Then quickly Sunday winds will return to the South-Southwest in response to an upper level system forming in the Central Plains.
Early Monday morning another decent shot of cool air arrives, but again, no rain chances.
The big changes I mentioned above looks to be a fairly decent pattern change across the entire United States. Arctic air looks to invade the Eastern third of the country beginning February 10th into the 11th. This would put us on the edge of the Arctic air mass, which should cool our temperatures down to at least a bit below normal.
As we usually say, stay tuned. A lot can change in the next 10 days!
Wednesday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off mild this morning with temperatures mainly in the 40s. Snyder did make it down to the upper 30s. Today will be cooler than yesterday. A cold front is expected to move through the Big Country later this morning. We'll start with partly cloudy skies, but by this afternoon it should be mostly sunny. Highs will reach the mid to upper 60s.
The roller coaster ride of temperatures continues tomorrow as we return to the low to mid 70s for highs. Skies should be mostly sunny.
Two cold fronts are expected to move into the viewing area towards the end of the week. One looks to arrive during the second half of Friday. The other should be here late on Sunday. Temperatures will remain above average for this time of year through at least the weekend. Unfortunately, no rain is expected with any of the three cold fronts we'll experience this week. Looking at the models, we will likely be dry for at least the next seven days.
Have a wonderful Wednesday!
We started off mild this morning with temperatures mainly in the 40s. Snyder did make it down to the upper 30s. Today will be cooler than yesterday. A cold front is expected to move through the Big Country later this morning. We'll start with partly cloudy skies, but by this afternoon it should be mostly sunny. Highs will reach the mid to upper 60s.
The roller coaster ride of temperatures continues tomorrow as we return to the low to mid 70s for highs. Skies should be mostly sunny.
Two cold fronts are expected to move into the viewing area towards the end of the week. One looks to arrive during the second half of Friday. The other should be here late on Sunday. Temperatures will remain above average for this time of year through at least the weekend. Unfortunately, no rain is expected with any of the three cold fronts we'll experience this week. Looking at the models, we will likely be dry for at least the next seven days.
Have a wonderful Wednesday!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)