From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
Clouds are on in the increase tonight across the area as an upper level disturbance approaches the Big Country. Unfortunately, we are just too dry at the surface for rain chances. (For more on these "disturbances", visit a previous blog entry from Jan. 27th where I went into detail about what exactly they are.) There is a chance that a drop or two could make it to the ground overnight, but I expect that only virga will occur. (Virga- Precipitation that evaporates before it reaches the ground.)
Over the next 5 to 10 days we are going to begin to see the upper level pattern shift a bit across the country. It looks like a decent amount of cold, arctic air might finally make a push down into the Southeastern U.S. Now, this by no means suggests that a wet pattern could begin, it just means things may get shaken up a bit. The good news is, any change to the warm and dry pattern is a welcome change. The bad news is, for now, we look to remain dry for the next 5 to 10 days.
Once we get some colder air established in the country, and the polar jet starts moving farther South, we could be looking at a more typical winter like pattern across the Southern U.S. which in turn could bring us at least some rain chances.
In the meantime, a cold front will arrive tomorrow morning, but temperatures will still climb into the upper 60s. Thursday we will once again warm back into the lower 70s ahead of another, strong cold front due in Thursday into Friday. This front will likely bring us at least a light freeze both Saturday and Sunday morning.
Tuesday, January 31, 2006
Tuesday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off with a wide range of temperatures across the Big Country this morning. Brownwood and Snyder dropped down into the upper 20s to low 30s due to calm to light winds. Abilene and Sweetwater only managed to make it down to the upper 30s to low 40s. The reason for the warmer temperatures in these locations was the breezy conditions. The wind kept the air mixed and didn't allow for as much cooling as other spots.
By this afternoon, everyone will be warm. Highs are expected in the low to mid 70s. Windy conditions will return with winds from the south at 15 to 25 mph. Low relative humidity values are likely today, so therefore just about every county in the viewing area is under a Red Flag Warning. The exceptions are Stonewall, Scurry, and Mitchell counties. We all need to be careful today with the elevated fire danger.
A cold front is expeted overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. It doesn't look like we will see any rain from it. Temperatures will cool down a little bit, but still be a above average for this time of year. Highs tomorrow should be in the mid to upper 60s.
Warm conditions return for Thursday before we cool down behind yet another cold front on Friday. This front looks to be a little stronger and therefore we will hold on to the cooler temperatures for more than one day. Unfortunately, this front looks to be dry too. Temperatures for the second half of the work week and the beginning of the weekend should be mainly above average for this time of year.
Have a terrific Tuesday!
We started off with a wide range of temperatures across the Big Country this morning. Brownwood and Snyder dropped down into the upper 20s to low 30s due to calm to light winds. Abilene and Sweetwater only managed to make it down to the upper 30s to low 40s. The reason for the warmer temperatures in these locations was the breezy conditions. The wind kept the air mixed and didn't allow for as much cooling as other spots.
By this afternoon, everyone will be warm. Highs are expected in the low to mid 70s. Windy conditions will return with winds from the south at 15 to 25 mph. Low relative humidity values are likely today, so therefore just about every county in the viewing area is under a Red Flag Warning. The exceptions are Stonewall, Scurry, and Mitchell counties. We all need to be careful today with the elevated fire danger.
A cold front is expeted overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. It doesn't look like we will see any rain from it. Temperatures will cool down a little bit, but still be a above average for this time of year. Highs tomorrow should be in the mid to upper 60s.
Warm conditions return for Thursday before we cool down behind yet another cold front on Friday. This front looks to be a little stronger and therefore we will hold on to the cooler temperatures for more than one day. Unfortunately, this front looks to be dry too. Temperatures for the second half of the work week and the beginning of the weekend should be mainly above average for this time of year.
Have a terrific Tuesday!
Monday, January 30, 2006
Monday Afternoon Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
A very pleasant start to the work-week across the Big Country today with high temperatures climbing into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Unfortunately, still no rain, and it looks like that could last for a while now.
We're getting back into an upper level pattern which will keep storm systems too far North of our area to allow for rain chances, but far enough South to allow for winds to pick up in between systems.
Right now it does not appear likely for rain chances through the next 5 to 7 days.
Fire Weather Watches are in effect across the Big Country through the day Tuesday with winds forecasted to run anywhere between 15 and 25 miles per hour.
We will see another cold front approach Thursday, which will once again increase fire danger across the area during the day.
A very pleasant start to the work-week across the Big Country today with high temperatures climbing into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Unfortunately, still no rain, and it looks like that could last for a while now.
We're getting back into an upper level pattern which will keep storm systems too far North of our area to allow for rain chances, but far enough South to allow for winds to pick up in between systems.
Right now it does not appear likely for rain chances through the next 5 to 7 days.
Fire Weather Watches are in effect across the Big Country through the day Tuesday with winds forecasted to run anywhere between 15 and 25 miles per hour.
We will see another cold front approach Thursday, which will once again increase fire danger across the area during the day.
Monday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off chilly this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 30s. After warm and windy conditions yesterday, it looks like we will get a break today. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s with winds from the north-northeast at 5 to 10 mph. Tonight should be chilly, but not as cold as this morning with lows in the mid to upper 30s.
Warm and windy conditions should return tomorrow. Highs will likely return be in the low to mid 70s. Winds will be from the south-southwest at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts. The fire danger will probably once again be elevated for Tuesday. A Fire Weather Watch is already in place for Knox, Stephens, Eastland, and Comanche counties for tomorrow afternoon. Even though we received some rain this past Friday night and Saturday morning, it isn't nearly enought for what is needed. We should continue to be careful and follow all the necessary precautions in order to prevent fires.
The roller coaster ride of temperatures will likely continue through the end of the work week. Cold fronts are expected to move through the area on Wednesday and Friday. Unfortunately, no rain is expected with either. Even though we will cool down behind these fronts, temperatures look to remain above average for this time of year through at least the end of the work week.
Have a magnificent Monday!
We started off chilly this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 30s. After warm and windy conditions yesterday, it looks like we will get a break today. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s with winds from the north-northeast at 5 to 10 mph. Tonight should be chilly, but not as cold as this morning with lows in the mid to upper 30s.
Warm and windy conditions should return tomorrow. Highs will likely return be in the low to mid 70s. Winds will be from the south-southwest at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts. The fire danger will probably once again be elevated for Tuesday. A Fire Weather Watch is already in place for Knox, Stephens, Eastland, and Comanche counties for tomorrow afternoon. Even though we received some rain this past Friday night and Saturday morning, it isn't nearly enought for what is needed. We should continue to be careful and follow all the necessary precautions in order to prevent fires.
The roller coaster ride of temperatures will likely continue through the end of the work week. Cold fronts are expected to move through the area on Wednesday and Friday. Unfortunately, no rain is expected with either. Even though we will cool down behind these fronts, temperatures look to remain above average for this time of year through at least the end of the work week.
Have a magnificent Monday!
Saturday, January 28, 2006
Mild and Windy Conditions Continue
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We had a mild and windy day across the Big Country with highs in the low 60s to low 70s. Winds were sustained at 25 to 30 mph with gusts as high as 44 mph. The winds should calm down a little tonight but still remain a bit on the breezy side. With mostly clear skies expected, lows should reach the upper 30s to low 40s.
Tomorrow will be very similar to today. Skies should be mostly sunny with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Windy conditions will likely continue with winds from the west-northwest at 15 to 25 mph. Unlike today though where most of the area was under a Red Flag Warning or Wind Advisory, only Scurry and Mitchell counties are under a Red Flag Warning at this time for tomorrow afternoon.
Monday looks to be nice with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid 60s. Winds should be much lighter for the start of the new work and school week.
It looks like the pattern for this upcoming week will be different from this past one. We probably won't have as much moisture working into the area. The subtropical jet which helped with bringing moisture into the area likely won't be around for us this week. So, unfortunately, above average temperatures and dry conditions are expected for now.
Have a super Saturday evening and Sunday!
We had a mild and windy day across the Big Country with highs in the low 60s to low 70s. Winds were sustained at 25 to 30 mph with gusts as high as 44 mph. The winds should calm down a little tonight but still remain a bit on the breezy side. With mostly clear skies expected, lows should reach the upper 30s to low 40s.
Tomorrow will be very similar to today. Skies should be mostly sunny with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Windy conditions will likely continue with winds from the west-northwest at 15 to 25 mph. Unlike today though where most of the area was under a Red Flag Warning or Wind Advisory, only Scurry and Mitchell counties are under a Red Flag Warning at this time for tomorrow afternoon.
Monday looks to be nice with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid 60s. Winds should be much lighter for the start of the new work and school week.
It looks like the pattern for this upcoming week will be different from this past one. We probably won't have as much moisture working into the area. The subtropical jet which helped with bringing moisture into the area likely won't be around for us this week. So, unfortunately, above average temperatures and dry conditions are expected for now.
Have a super Saturday evening and Sunday!
Saturday, 2:00 p.m. Update
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
The winds have really picked up across the Big Country today in response to a tighening pressure gradient. This is all ahead of a cold front I expect to shift winds around to the Northwest Sunday. The only problem is, there isn' much cold air to tap into, so temperatures will still climb to near 70 Sunday.
Rainfall totals were not all that impressive unfortunately. Although some areas fared better than others. As the second disturbanced moved through the Big Country overnight Friday into Saturday, moderate to heavy rain fell across the Eastern Big Country. We'll talk more about rainfall totals tomorrow or Monday.
If you have a rain gauge and would like to share your rainfall totals, please either comment here on the board, or e-mail me at ccarnesi@krbc.tv, and I will share your anonymous total with all of our readers. I will only share your total and town, not your name, I promise!
With the strong winds this afternoon, the National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning for most of the Big Country. This is the statement from the National Weather Service in San Angelo:
The winds have really picked up across the Big Country today in response to a tighening pressure gradient. This is all ahead of a cold front I expect to shift winds around to the Northwest Sunday. The only problem is, there isn' much cold air to tap into, so temperatures will still climb to near 70 Sunday.
Rainfall totals were not all that impressive unfortunately. Although some areas fared better than others. As the second disturbanced moved through the Big Country overnight Friday into Saturday, moderate to heavy rain fell across the Eastern Big Country. We'll talk more about rainfall totals tomorrow or Monday.
If you have a rain gauge and would like to share your rainfall totals, please either comment here on the board, or e-mail me at ccarnesi@krbc.tv, and I will share your anonymous total with all of our readers. I will only share your total and town, not your name, I promise!
With the strong winds this afternoon, the National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning for most of the Big Country. This is the statement from the National Weather Service in San Angelo:
421 AM CST SAT JAN 28 2006
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST
THIS AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
EXPECT STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TODAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS TEXAS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAS RECEIVED MEASURABLE RAINFALL DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS...VERY DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 15 TO 18 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
BIG COUNTY AND MOST OF THE CONCHO VALLEY TODAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...GREATER RAINFALL DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS
WILL HOLD RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT TODAY.
THUS...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL NOT BE NECESSARY FOR THOSE
COUNTIES.
A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL
Also, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Tropical Storm Cindy to Hurricane Cindy
from the 2005 season. After a tropical season the hurricane center will publish
reports on each individual storm, and sometimes will upgrade, or downgrade systems.
Below are the updated totals from this past season. The graphic is courtesy of
www.accuweather.com.
Friday, January 27, 2006
4:45pm Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
Showers and even a few isolated thunderstorms continue across the Big Country this evening. I expect these to cotinue into the overnight hours as another upper level distburnce rides over top of us.
We talk about these "disturbances" quite often, but they are really a simple thing to explain. There are many different kinds, but the one in particular affecting us tonight is basically a pocket of faster moving air in the middle to upper levels of the atmosphere. When air moves faster higher up in the atmosphere, air has to replace the air that has moved. So, that air has to come from somewhere, in this case, it lifts from the surface. On the way up, that air carries the water vapor with it. We all know that in most situations the temperature drops with height, eventually this air from the surface reaches a point where the dewpoint is reached. Then, saturation takes place and clouds form. Well, I think you get where I'm going with this, a fast enough "disturbance" creates the lift quick enough to get the whole process enough to where saturation takes place and eventually rain falls.
So, as this disturbance exits past the Big Country tonight into tomorrow, it will leave behind it strong subsidence, or sinking air. That sinking air combined with a Pacific Front bringing in drier air, will leave us warm and very windy.
Fire weather watches are in effect across the area through Saturday. We also look to remain very dry across the Big Country through the extended forecast.
A quick reminder, please join us in helping Habitat For Humanity this weekend as the Habitat Hoopsters take on the Harlem Ambassadors. It is a fun, family oriented night. The Harlam Ambassadors heavily involve the crowd, most specifically the kids. Tickets are just $8 for adults and $6 for children and students. Kids 5 and under are free. All of the proceeds go to the Abilene chapter of Habitat. The game begins at 7:00 p.m. Saturday night at Kimbrell Arena on the campus of McMurry University. Please come out and support a great cause and enjoy the heck out of a Saturday evening while you are at it.
Showers and even a few isolated thunderstorms continue across the Big Country this evening. I expect these to cotinue into the overnight hours as another upper level distburnce rides over top of us.
We talk about these "disturbances" quite often, but they are really a simple thing to explain. There are many different kinds, but the one in particular affecting us tonight is basically a pocket of faster moving air in the middle to upper levels of the atmosphere. When air moves faster higher up in the atmosphere, air has to replace the air that has moved. So, that air has to come from somewhere, in this case, it lifts from the surface. On the way up, that air carries the water vapor with it. We all know that in most situations the temperature drops with height, eventually this air from the surface reaches a point where the dewpoint is reached. Then, saturation takes place and clouds form. Well, I think you get where I'm going with this, a fast enough "disturbance" creates the lift quick enough to get the whole process enough to where saturation takes place and eventually rain falls.
So, as this disturbance exits past the Big Country tonight into tomorrow, it will leave behind it strong subsidence, or sinking air. That sinking air combined with a Pacific Front bringing in drier air, will leave us warm and very windy.
Fire weather watches are in effect across the area through Saturday. We also look to remain very dry across the Big Country through the extended forecast.
A quick reminder, please join us in helping Habitat For Humanity this weekend as the Habitat Hoopsters take on the Harlem Ambassadors. It is a fun, family oriented night. The Harlam Ambassadors heavily involve the crowd, most specifically the kids. Tickets are just $8 for adults and $6 for children and students. Kids 5 and under are free. All of the proceeds go to the Abilene chapter of Habitat. The game begins at 7:00 p.m. Saturday night at Kimbrell Arena on the campus of McMurry University. Please come out and support a great cause and enjoy the heck out of a Saturday evening while you are at it.
Carry Your Umbrella With You Today
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off mild again this morning. Temperatures were mainly in the mid 40s to low 50s. We won't warm up much at all today due to mostly cloudy skies and some rainfall. Highs will likely be in the upper 50s to low 60s. A few light showers are already developing as I write this forecast discussion. The best chance for rain will begin this afternoon as an upper level disturbance is projected to move across the area. Be aware a few isolated thunderstorms are possible today. Breezy conditions are expected too with winds from the south at 10 to 20 mph.
The chance for more rain continues tonight, so be careful if you are going to be out and about this evening. It will be another mild night with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Breezy conditions should continue.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible during the morning hours tomorrow. The eastern portions of the viewing area have the best chance of seeing the rain. A cold front looks to arrive tomorrow afternoon. This will clear our skies and dry us out for the second half of the weekend and early next week.
As far as total rainfall amounts go from this event, it looks like the eastern Big Country will be the big winner. Totals there according to one model could be over an inch. In the central communities, totals could be half an inch to an inch. It looks like the western counties may only see up to a quarter of an inch at best.
Temperatures for Saturday through Tuesday should be above average for this time of year. Highs will likely be in the 60s with lows in the low to mid 30s.
Have a fantastic Friday!
We started off mild again this morning. Temperatures were mainly in the mid 40s to low 50s. We won't warm up much at all today due to mostly cloudy skies and some rainfall. Highs will likely be in the upper 50s to low 60s. A few light showers are already developing as I write this forecast discussion. The best chance for rain will begin this afternoon as an upper level disturbance is projected to move across the area. Be aware a few isolated thunderstorms are possible today. Breezy conditions are expected too with winds from the south at 10 to 20 mph.
The chance for more rain continues tonight, so be careful if you are going to be out and about this evening. It will be another mild night with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Breezy conditions should continue.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible during the morning hours tomorrow. The eastern portions of the viewing area have the best chance of seeing the rain. A cold front looks to arrive tomorrow afternoon. This will clear our skies and dry us out for the second half of the weekend and early next week.
As far as total rainfall amounts go from this event, it looks like the eastern Big Country will be the big winner. Totals there according to one model could be over an inch. In the central communities, totals could be half an inch to an inch. It looks like the western counties may only see up to a quarter of an inch at best.
Temperatures for Saturday through Tuesday should be above average for this time of year. Highs will likely be in the 60s with lows in the low to mid 30s.
Have a fantastic Friday!
Thursday, January 26, 2006
4:45pm Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
First off let me apologize for the lack of an evening discussion yesterday. The website that hosts this blog, blogger.com, was experiencing difficulties all day and evening. I was not able to log in to uplink the update, so I apologize for that.
Now, for some good news, rain chances are looking pretty good for Friday. My only concern is there is a chance for a few isolated thunderstorms as well. My concern being the chance for fire sparked by lightning. If we do see any thunderstorms and you happen to see a fire, please call your local authorities immediately.
As for the rain chances, right now it looks like just about everyone will see some rainfall. Totals still don't look too impressive, but any totals are fine by me right now. I expect some areas may only see a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rain, while there is the potential to see up to an inch as well. It will all just depend on how the showers and storms evolve.
Rain chances will continue into Friday night. By Saturday rain and clouds clear out from West to East. Unfortunately, it looks like they won't return for a while either.
Sunny skies and above average temperatures will rule the rest of the extended forecast.
First off let me apologize for the lack of an evening discussion yesterday. The website that hosts this blog, blogger.com, was experiencing difficulties all day and evening. I was not able to log in to uplink the update, so I apologize for that.
Now, for some good news, rain chances are looking pretty good for Friday. My only concern is there is a chance for a few isolated thunderstorms as well. My concern being the chance for fire sparked by lightning. If we do see any thunderstorms and you happen to see a fire, please call your local authorities immediately.
As for the rain chances, right now it looks like just about everyone will see some rainfall. Totals still don't look too impressive, but any totals are fine by me right now. I expect some areas may only see a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rain, while there is the potential to see up to an inch as well. It will all just depend on how the showers and storms evolve.
Rain chances will continue into Friday night. By Saturday rain and clouds clear out from West to East. Unfortunately, it looks like they won't return for a while either.
Sunny skies and above average temperatures will rule the rest of the extended forecast.
Keep The Rain Gear Close By
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off mild this morning with temperatures mainly in the 40s. An upper level disturbance rolled across the area and brought a little bit of rain. Totals were a tenth of an inch or less. The chance for rain today should come to an end by lunchtime. Mostly cloudy skies will remain and that will keep temperatuers cooler than yesterday. Highs are expected to be in the upper 50s to low 60s. It could be a little breezy at times today with winds from the south at 10 to 20 mph.
A trough, or dip, in the jetstream is still set up to our west. A few upper level disturbances are still projected to roll towards us tomorrow and tomorrow night. As of right now, there is a 40% chance of showers and maybe even a few thunderstorms during the day. Totals could reach a quarter of an inch with some locations possibly seeing more than that. Mostly cloudy skies and breezy condtions should continue. Highs will once again be in the upper 50s to low 60s.
The chance for rain comes to an end early on Saturday. Skies will clear up a little bit which will allow us to warm up. Highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 60s. A cold front arrives late in the day. It doesn't look like we will see any rain from this feature, but instead it will help clear the moisture from the area and cool us down a little.
Sunday and Monday look nice with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 60s.
Have a terrific Thursday!
We started off mild this morning with temperatures mainly in the 40s. An upper level disturbance rolled across the area and brought a little bit of rain. Totals were a tenth of an inch or less. The chance for rain today should come to an end by lunchtime. Mostly cloudy skies will remain and that will keep temperatuers cooler than yesterday. Highs are expected to be in the upper 50s to low 60s. It could be a little breezy at times today with winds from the south at 10 to 20 mph.
A trough, or dip, in the jetstream is still set up to our west. A few upper level disturbances are still projected to roll towards us tomorrow and tomorrow night. As of right now, there is a 40% chance of showers and maybe even a few thunderstorms during the day. Totals could reach a quarter of an inch with some locations possibly seeing more than that. Mostly cloudy skies and breezy condtions should continue. Highs will once again be in the upper 50s to low 60s.
The chance for rain comes to an end early on Saturday. Skies will clear up a little bit which will allow us to warm up. Highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 60s. A cold front arrives late in the day. It doesn't look like we will see any rain from this feature, but instead it will help clear the moisture from the area and cool us down a little.
Sunday and Monday look nice with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 60s.
Have a terrific Thursday!
Wednesday, January 25, 2006
Wednesday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
It was another chilly morning across the Big Country with temperatures falling down into the upper 20s to mid 30s. Temperatures this afternoon should be cooler than yesterday, but still above average for this time of year. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s. The reason for the cooler temperatures is the extra cloud cover that we will see today. Partly cloudy skies are expected in the central and eastern portions of the viewing area. The western communites will likely see mostly cloudy skies and possibly a few isolated showers. An upper level low that was in southern California this morning is the cause of the cloud cover and the chance for rain.
With a trough, or dip, in the jetstream set up over the southwest right now and expected to continue into the early portions of the weekend, we will continue to see a chance for rain. There is a slight chance tomorrow, but more than likely we should be dry with mostly cloudy skies.
The best chance for rain comes on Friday as a surface trough develops and moves over the area. Right now, that chance is 30%. Thunderstorms are possible that day as well.
Any rain we do see should come to an end early on Saturday. A cold front is expected to arrive that afternoon. It won't cool us down that much, but it will clear our skies out and bring rain chances to an end. Temperatures should continue to be above average for this time of year through the end of the week.
Have a wonderful Wednesday!
It was another chilly morning across the Big Country with temperatures falling down into the upper 20s to mid 30s. Temperatures this afternoon should be cooler than yesterday, but still above average for this time of year. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s. The reason for the cooler temperatures is the extra cloud cover that we will see today. Partly cloudy skies are expected in the central and eastern portions of the viewing area. The western communites will likely see mostly cloudy skies and possibly a few isolated showers. An upper level low that was in southern California this morning is the cause of the cloud cover and the chance for rain.
With a trough, or dip, in the jetstream set up over the southwest right now and expected to continue into the early portions of the weekend, we will continue to see a chance for rain. There is a slight chance tomorrow, but more than likely we should be dry with mostly cloudy skies.
The best chance for rain comes on Friday as a surface trough develops and moves over the area. Right now, that chance is 30%. Thunderstorms are possible that day as well.
Any rain we do see should come to an end early on Saturday. A cold front is expected to arrive that afternoon. It won't cool us down that much, but it will clear our skies out and bring rain chances to an end. Temperatures should continue to be above average for this time of year through the end of the week.
Have a wonderful Wednesday!
Tuesday, January 24, 2006
Rain Chance Remain In The Forecast, 4:30p.m. TUE
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
Another pleasant afternoon across the Big Country today. It really is too bad we can't enjoy this weather too much considering how badly we need some gloomy, rainy days. The good news our rain chances have not changed for Friday.
Before then I expect clouds to begin to increase across the area beginning tonight. A weak upper level disturbance will move through the pan handle tomorrow. This disturbance may pass close enough to bring an isolated shower or two to the Western and Northwestern portion of our viewing area. Basically a Snyder to Aspermont to Benjamin line and West.
Thursday we can expet partly cloudy skies without rain chances with highs in the middle to lower 60s.
Thursday night a more impressive, better organized system will approach from the West. This system will create lift ahead of itself and rain chances will begin late Thursday night and early Friday morning.
As the system passes during the day Friday, a decent batch of showers should form and move Southwest to Northeast across the area. There is a slim chance of a few embedded, non-severe thunderstorms with this system. Thunderstorms are the last thing we need right now with the dry conditions, but the chances are better for a mainly light rain event. Rainfall totals will only possible add up to a tenth to a half an inch of rain over most of the area. Just East of the Big Country, as always it seems, there is the chance for better totals.
Saturday this system will drag a Pacific Cold Front through the area bring drier air and an end to any rain chances for a little while. By Sunday expect sunny skies and highs and in upper 50s to lower 60s.
Another pleasant afternoon across the Big Country today. It really is too bad we can't enjoy this weather too much considering how badly we need some gloomy, rainy days. The good news our rain chances have not changed for Friday.
Before then I expect clouds to begin to increase across the area beginning tonight. A weak upper level disturbance will move through the pan handle tomorrow. This disturbance may pass close enough to bring an isolated shower or two to the Western and Northwestern portion of our viewing area. Basically a Snyder to Aspermont to Benjamin line and West.
Thursday we can expet partly cloudy skies without rain chances with highs in the middle to lower 60s.
Thursday night a more impressive, better organized system will approach from the West. This system will create lift ahead of itself and rain chances will begin late Thursday night and early Friday morning.
As the system passes during the day Friday, a decent batch of showers should form and move Southwest to Northeast across the area. There is a slim chance of a few embedded, non-severe thunderstorms with this system. Thunderstorms are the last thing we need right now with the dry conditions, but the chances are better for a mainly light rain event. Rainfall totals will only possible add up to a tenth to a half an inch of rain over most of the area. Just East of the Big Country, as always it seems, there is the chance for better totals.
Saturday this system will drag a Pacific Cold Front through the area bring drier air and an end to any rain chances for a little while. By Sunday expect sunny skies and highs and in upper 50s to lower 60s.
Rain Chances Looking Better
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off a little cold here in the Big Country again this morning. Everyone bottomed out somewhere in the mid 20s to mid 30s. A nice afternoon looks to be on tap for all of us today with highs in the low to mid 60s. Winds should remain light from the south then shift to the northwest later today.
A trough in the jetstream has set up to our west. That trough will influence our weather into early this weekend. An upper level low will move northeast across the Texas panhandle and into Kansas tomorrow and Thursday. There is a slight chance of isolated showers, but only in our western communities. A better chance of rain for the entire viewing area arrives on Friday with an upper level disturbance. For now that chance stands at 30%, but it could increase the closer we get to that time period. A few thunderstorms are possible with this system on Friday. A few lingering showers could last into early Saturday.
Overall, temperatures should be above average for the next five days with highs in the low to mid 60s and lows mainly in the low to mid 40s.
Have a terrific Tuesday!
We started off a little cold here in the Big Country again this morning. Everyone bottomed out somewhere in the mid 20s to mid 30s. A nice afternoon looks to be on tap for all of us today with highs in the low to mid 60s. Winds should remain light from the south then shift to the northwest later today.
A trough in the jetstream has set up to our west. That trough will influence our weather into early this weekend. An upper level low will move northeast across the Texas panhandle and into Kansas tomorrow and Thursday. There is a slight chance of isolated showers, but only in our western communities. A better chance of rain for the entire viewing area arrives on Friday with an upper level disturbance. For now that chance stands at 30%, but it could increase the closer we get to that time period. A few thunderstorms are possible with this system on Friday. A few lingering showers could last into early Saturday.
Overall, temperatures should be above average for the next five days with highs in the low to mid 60s and lows mainly in the low to mid 40s.
Have a terrific Tuesday!
Monday, January 23, 2006
Monday, 4:35 p.m. Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
After finally receiving some much needed rain across parts of the area, we were left with a cool, seasonal Monday. Highs only climbed into the middle to upper 50s. Overnight lows tonight will fall down to just below freezing, so this is a decent chance of frost across the area.
The best news of all, there are more rain chances in the forecast. There will be a slight chance of a few isolated showers across the Northern and Western viewing area Wednesday as a strong upper-level disturbance moves through the plains. If this system's path happens to shift a little farther to the South, the rest of the area could see showers. Right now though, things are looking more and more likely for us to only get mostly cloudy skies out of this system.
Later in the week, by Friday, another system will approach and possibly bring a few thunderstorms to our area. Right now I am only calling for a 30% chance of showers, but as we get a little closer to Friday, I'm hoping to be able to up that percentage.
All in all I am very happy with how our situation for winter is evolving. Right now it looks like we are in a much better pattern to continue to see systems get close enough to West Central Texas to bring us rain chances.
After finally receiving some much needed rain across parts of the area, we were left with a cool, seasonal Monday. Highs only climbed into the middle to upper 50s. Overnight lows tonight will fall down to just below freezing, so this is a decent chance of frost across the area.
The best news of all, there are more rain chances in the forecast. There will be a slight chance of a few isolated showers across the Northern and Western viewing area Wednesday as a strong upper-level disturbance moves through the plains. If this system's path happens to shift a little farther to the South, the rest of the area could see showers. Right now though, things are looking more and more likely for us to only get mostly cloudy skies out of this system.
Later in the week, by Friday, another system will approach and possibly bring a few thunderstorms to our area. Right now I am only calling for a 30% chance of showers, but as we get a little closer to Friday, I'm hoping to be able to up that percentage.
All in all I am very happy with how our situation for winter is evolving. Right now it looks like we are in a much better pattern to continue to see systems get close enough to West Central Texas to bring us rain chances.
Don't Put The Umbrellas Away Just Yet
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off cold this morning with most locations in the low 30s. Skies cleared for the most part overnight, but as of this morning more clouds are moving in from the west-southwest. There should be enough sunshine today to call it partly cloudy instead of the mostly cloudy skies we had yesterday. Highs will be seasonable in the low to mid 50s. Light winds of 5 to 10 mph from the north are expected.
Tomorrow should be nice with mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatuers. Highs in the mid 60s are likely. Winds will continue to be light from the northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Abilene Regional Airport reported 0.26" of rain yesterday. Rainfall totals were less than that to the west of Abilene. Totals in some locations of the eastern Big Country were better than a quater of an inch. It looks like we may be in for some more rain later this week. Computer models have been back and forth on the exact path of an upper level low for Wednesday and Thursday. Last week, models showed it moving over the Big Country or just to the south of us. Now, some are showing it moving to the northeast and going across Kansas. It looks like we have enough moisture in place. The question is whether or not we have anything to lift it. For now, I am going with a slight chance of showers and maybe a thunderstorm for both days.
Another upper level disturbance could move across the area on Friday and into early Saturday. Since this system is still five to six days away, I am only going with a slight chance of rain for now. That could increase the closer we get to that time period, so stay tuned.
Have a magnificent Monday!
We started off cold this morning with most locations in the low 30s. Skies cleared for the most part overnight, but as of this morning more clouds are moving in from the west-southwest. There should be enough sunshine today to call it partly cloudy instead of the mostly cloudy skies we had yesterday. Highs will be seasonable in the low to mid 50s. Light winds of 5 to 10 mph from the north are expected.
Tomorrow should be nice with mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatuers. Highs in the mid 60s are likely. Winds will continue to be light from the northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Abilene Regional Airport reported 0.26" of rain yesterday. Rainfall totals were less than that to the west of Abilene. Totals in some locations of the eastern Big Country were better than a quater of an inch. It looks like we may be in for some more rain later this week. Computer models have been back and forth on the exact path of an upper level low for Wednesday and Thursday. Last week, models showed it moving over the Big Country or just to the south of us. Now, some are showing it moving to the northeast and going across Kansas. It looks like we have enough moisture in place. The question is whether or not we have anything to lift it. For now, I am going with a slight chance of showers and maybe a thunderstorm for both days.
Another upper level disturbance could move across the area on Friday and into early Saturday. Since this system is still five to six days away, I am only going with a slight chance of rain for now. That could increase the closer we get to that time period, so stay tuned.
Have a magnificent Monday!
Sunday, January 22, 2006
Wonderful Rain!
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
Well, it certainly is not a drought breaker, but at least we have finally received rain. Between 6 and 9 a.m. this morning Abilene Regional Airport recorded 0.26" of rain. I received just about 0.20" on the South side of town as well.
The bad news is, our Western communities saw little or no rain. While our Eastern counties received anywhere from a quarter of an inch to just over an inch in isolated areas.
There's been a little confusion over the weekend as to how long we have gone without measurable rainfall in Abilene. The last measurable rainfall before this morning was on December 17th of last year when we received 0.01" of rain. Anything less than 0.01" is defined by the National Weather Service as only a trace and is not measurable. There were reports Saturday that said it had been since October 31, 2005. Now, that was the last time we received more than a tenth of inch of rainfall, which to most is the last significant rainfall total. Since October 31 we have now received 0.37" of rain.
There are chances for rain this week. We'll talk more about those rain chances here on the blog tomorrow.
Well, it certainly is not a drought breaker, but at least we have finally received rain. Between 6 and 9 a.m. this morning Abilene Regional Airport recorded 0.26" of rain. I received just about 0.20" on the South side of town as well.
The bad news is, our Western communities saw little or no rain. While our Eastern counties received anywhere from a quarter of an inch to just over an inch in isolated areas.
There's been a little confusion over the weekend as to how long we have gone without measurable rainfall in Abilene. The last measurable rainfall before this morning was on December 17th of last year when we received 0.01" of rain. Anything less than 0.01" is defined by the National Weather Service as only a trace and is not measurable. There were reports Saturday that said it had been since October 31, 2005. Now, that was the last time we received more than a tenth of inch of rainfall, which to most is the last significant rainfall total. Since October 31 we have now received 0.37" of rain.
There are chances for rain this week. We'll talk more about those rain chances here on the blog tomorrow.
Friday, January 20, 2006
Rain, Rain Come This Way! 4:45 p.m. Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
After our cold front arrived earlier today temperatures held steady in the lower 60s leaving us with a very pleasant end to the work-week. Now, we focus our attention to the weekend and our upcoming rain chances.
We've said this before, but the closer we get to a possible rain even, the more confidence we have in our forecast. The good news is, the closer we get to Sunday, the better the rain chances look. Now, I think we will see scattered showers across the area Sunday, but totals will not be all that impressive. I'm still convinced we will only see anywhere from a tenth of an inch to a quarter of an inch of rain. The good news with all of this is, I believe we really are in the midst of a pattern change.
Looking at some of the longer-range models this afternoon it looks like we will have another upper level system push through the Big Country Wednesday and Thursday of next week. With that system we could see another batch of showers.
After that, it looks like another system could affect us by next weekend.
So, again, this is not a drought ender, nor is this the end of fire danger across the area, but it could be the beginning.
After our cold front arrived earlier today temperatures held steady in the lower 60s leaving us with a very pleasant end to the work-week. Now, we focus our attention to the weekend and our upcoming rain chances.
We've said this before, but the closer we get to a possible rain even, the more confidence we have in our forecast. The good news is, the closer we get to Sunday, the better the rain chances look. Now, I think we will see scattered showers across the area Sunday, but totals will not be all that impressive. I'm still convinced we will only see anywhere from a tenth of an inch to a quarter of an inch of rain. The good news with all of this is, I believe we really are in the midst of a pattern change.
Looking at some of the longer-range models this afternoon it looks like we will have another upper level system push through the Big Country Wednesday and Thursday of next week. With that system we could see another batch of showers.
After that, it looks like another system could affect us by next weekend.
So, again, this is not a drought ender, nor is this the end of fire danger across the area, but it could be the beginning.
Chance of Rain This Weekend
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
It was another mild start to the day with temperatures mainly in the low 40s to mid 50s across the area. A cold front is currently moving towards the Big Country and should arrive here by the early afternoon hours. This will cause a difference in highs across the area. Northern communities in the viewing area will reach the low 60s, while the southern communities should reach the upper 60s. Breezy conditions look to remain with winds beginning from the south then shifting to the northwest behind the front at 10 to 20 mph. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of the area until 6 p.m. tonight. We need to be careful again today with the elevated fire danger.
The cooling trend continues tomorrow and lasts into early next week with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. The good news is that the chance for rain this weekend is looking better. The jet stream is expected to dip into our region by Sunday. An upper level disturbance will likely move through during this time period causing some showers and maybe even a thunderstorm. Right now the chance for rain is 20% for Saturday night and 40% for Sunday. The best chance for precipitation will be in east Texas. Here in the Big Country, amounts look to be about a quarter of an inch at best. It won't break out drought-like conditions, but it's more than what we have seen lately.
Looking into the middle of next week, a couple of models are indicating we could see some more rain. An upper level low could develop and move across our area on Wednesday. I am not completely sold on this scenario as of yet. Most of the time these lows end up moving far enough to our north to keep us out of most, if not all, of the rain. We'll continue to keep our eye on this and let you know as we get closer to that time period.
Have a fantastic Friday!
It was another mild start to the day with temperatures mainly in the low 40s to mid 50s across the area. A cold front is currently moving towards the Big Country and should arrive here by the early afternoon hours. This will cause a difference in highs across the area. Northern communities in the viewing area will reach the low 60s, while the southern communities should reach the upper 60s. Breezy conditions look to remain with winds beginning from the south then shifting to the northwest behind the front at 10 to 20 mph. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of the area until 6 p.m. tonight. We need to be careful again today with the elevated fire danger.
The cooling trend continues tomorrow and lasts into early next week with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. The good news is that the chance for rain this weekend is looking better. The jet stream is expected to dip into our region by Sunday. An upper level disturbance will likely move through during this time period causing some showers and maybe even a thunderstorm. Right now the chance for rain is 20% for Saturday night and 40% for Sunday. The best chance for precipitation will be in east Texas. Here in the Big Country, amounts look to be about a quarter of an inch at best. It won't break out drought-like conditions, but it's more than what we have seen lately.
Looking into the middle of next week, a couple of models are indicating we could see some more rain. An upper level low could develop and move across our area on Wednesday. I am not completely sold on this scenario as of yet. Most of the time these lows end up moving far enough to our north to keep us out of most, if not all, of the rain. We'll continue to keep our eye on this and let you know as we get closer to that time period.
Have a fantastic Friday!
Thursday, January 19, 2006
Cooler Weather Is On The Way - 4:45p.m. THU
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
It looks like we may finally be seeing the beginnings of a pattern change across the Nation. I stress LOOKS like.
Some of the model guidance we use on a daily basis is hinting at the chance of a more winter like pattern across the Western and Central United States soon. I mentioned this a couple of days ago and things still look good. Now, this doesn't mean we will get a lot of moisture, just more seasonal weather. The good thing is, if we can get the cold air established, then there is at least a better chance at getting more precipitation. Just looking at some guidance right now, February could end up much cooler than January. We'll just have to wait and see.
As for tonight, mild and breezy conditions will rule the area with Southwest winds coming around to the West and running 10 to 20 miles per hour. Lows will range from the middle 40s to near 50 degrees.
A cold front will plow through the Big Country early in the day Friday, bringing breezy winds out of the Northwest and cooler highs. This cold front is the first part of setting the stage for rain showers Sunday into Monday.
Right now I am forecasting a 30 to 40 percent chance of showers beginning Sunday and ending early in the day Monday. The problem for us will be moistening up the surface. With the dry air in place, Mother Nature will have to saturate the air from the top down. So, I expect we will start Sunday off with a good deal of virga, (rain evaporating before it reaches the ground) and then eventually turning into showers.
I'm also not too excited about rainfall totals. I think the most rain some could see might be around a quarter of an inch. But, we will definately take it.
It looks like we may finally be seeing the beginnings of a pattern change across the Nation. I stress LOOKS like.
Some of the model guidance we use on a daily basis is hinting at the chance of a more winter like pattern across the Western and Central United States soon. I mentioned this a couple of days ago and things still look good. Now, this doesn't mean we will get a lot of moisture, just more seasonal weather. The good thing is, if we can get the cold air established, then there is at least a better chance at getting more precipitation. Just looking at some guidance right now, February could end up much cooler than January. We'll just have to wait and see.
As for tonight, mild and breezy conditions will rule the area with Southwest winds coming around to the West and running 10 to 20 miles per hour. Lows will range from the middle 40s to near 50 degrees.
A cold front will plow through the Big Country early in the day Friday, bringing breezy winds out of the Northwest and cooler highs. This cold front is the first part of setting the stage for rain showers Sunday into Monday.
Right now I am forecasting a 30 to 40 percent chance of showers beginning Sunday and ending early in the day Monday. The problem for us will be moistening up the surface. With the dry air in place, Mother Nature will have to saturate the air from the top down. So, I expect we will start Sunday off with a good deal of virga, (rain evaporating before it reaches the ground) and then eventually turning into showers.
I'm also not too excited about rainfall totals. I think the most rain some could see might be around a quarter of an inch. But, we will definately take it.
Thursday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off mild this morning with temperatures mainly in the low 40s to low 50s across the area. Everyone will be warm this afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. In case you wondering, the record high for today at Abilene Regional Airport is 87 set back in 2000. Windy conditions will continue today, but not quite as strong as yesterday. Winds are expected from the southwest at 15 to 25 mph early, but then drop to maybe 10 to 20 mph this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of the area. Please continue to be careful and follow all the necessary precautions to help prevent fires.
A cold front should move through on Friday. Highs will likely only reach the mid 60s. No rain is expected, but we will probably see more cloud cover.
The cooling trend continues into the weekend and early next week. It looks like temperatures will be at or below average during that time period. The really good news is that the chance for rain has increased from slight to about 30% on Sunday and 20% on Monday. It doesn't look like we will see a lot of rain, but it's more than we have had lately. We'll continue to keep you updated on this possibility for rain.
Have a terrific Thursday!
We started off mild this morning with temperatures mainly in the low 40s to low 50s across the area. Everyone will be warm this afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. In case you wondering, the record high for today at Abilene Regional Airport is 87 set back in 2000. Windy conditions will continue today, but not quite as strong as yesterday. Winds are expected from the southwest at 15 to 25 mph early, but then drop to maybe 10 to 20 mph this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of the area. Please continue to be careful and follow all the necessary precautions to help prevent fires.
A cold front should move through on Friday. Highs will likely only reach the mid 60s. No rain is expected, but we will probably see more cloud cover.
The cooling trend continues into the weekend and early next week. It looks like temperatures will be at or below average during that time period. The really good news is that the chance for rain has increased from slight to about 30% on Sunday and 20% on Monday. It doesn't look like we will see a lot of rain, but it's more than we have had lately. We'll continue to keep you updated on this possibility for rain.
Have a terrific Thursday!
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