Tuesday Evening Discussion

From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...

Clouds are on in the increase tonight across the area as an upper level disturbance approaches the Big Country. Unfortunately, we are just too dry at the surface for rain chances. (For more on these "disturbances", visit a previous blog entry from Jan. 27th where I went into detail about what exactly they are.) There is a chance that a drop or two could make it to the ground overnight, but I expect that only virga will occur. (Virga- Precipitation that evaporates before it reaches the ground.)

Over the next 5 to 10 days we are going to begin to see the upper level pattern shift a bit across the country. It looks like a decent amount of cold, arctic air might finally make a push down into the Southeastern U.S. Now, this by no means suggests that a wet pattern could begin, it just means things may get shaken up a bit. The good news is, any change to the warm and dry pattern is a welcome change. The bad news is, for now, we look to remain dry for the next 5 to 10 days.

Once we get some colder air established in the country, and the polar jet starts moving farther South, we could be looking at a more typical winter like pattern across the Southern U.S. which in turn could bring us at least some rain chances.

In the meantime, a cold front will arrive tomorrow morning, but temperatures will still climb into the upper 60s. Thursday we will once again warm back into the lower 70s ahead of another, strong cold front due in Thursday into Friday. This front will likely bring us at least a light freeze both Saturday and Sunday morning.