Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi here...
After a wet and cold Thursday, Friday looks to warm back up to the mid 60s, with some sunshine by afternoon.
The upper-level energy that has been providing the lift for our showers will be pushing off to the East during the overnight hours. Expect some dense fog by Friday morning with temperatures in the low 40s.
Friday night football looks fantastic! With highs in the mid 60s, kickoff temperatures will be in the upper 50s. Rain chances will be out of the picture be gametime as well. Although, the fields will still be wet, and I don't know many football players who will have a problem with that.
The weekend looks almost perfect, with highs in the mid 70s Saturday and upper 70s and lower 80s Sunday. Rain chance will return late Sunday, then continue Columbus Day and Tuesday.
Thursday, October 06, 2005
A Much Different Day Today
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We have seen quite a change over the last 24 hours. Yesterday, we reached the low 90s for highs in many areas. A cold front blew through the Big Country last night. Highs for today were reached at midnight last night. It looks like 60 will be our high for today at Abilene Regional Airport. Temperatures will hold steady or decline throughout the day. Daytime highs will range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s. Cloudy skies will rule the day with an 80% chance of rain. Showers will be off and on with heavy rain possible at times. Winds will be from the north-northeast at 15 to 25 mph with some higher gusts. It will be one of those dreary, chilly, wet, and breezy days. Be careful on roadways because there will be ponding in some areas. They will also be slick.
Tonight, we'll continue to see cloudy skies and a 50% chance of more showers. Winds will remain from the north at 10 to 15 mph. Lows will be in the low to mid 40s. If you are heading out this evening, it looks like you'll need to bring the rain gear with you.
Tomorrow should be a little better with warmer temperatures. Overall, it will still be cool with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Winds will be from the north at 5 to 15 mph. If you heading out to a football game under those Friday night lights tomorrow night, I suggest you have a jacket or at least some long sleeves because it will be cool off quickly once the sun goes down.
It looks like the weekend will be picture perfect with mostly sunny skies. Highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Enjoy the wonderful weekend weather, because more rain may be heading our way on Monday. Another upper level disturbance is expected to move near the Big Country at that time. We'll talk more about this later.
Here's a quick update on our latest tropical system. According to the National Hurricane Center, Tammy has weakend to a tropical depression. The storm has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and is moving west at 12 mph. Right now the center of the storm is located over extreme southeastern Alabama near Ozark. Tammy is expected to dissipate by later today. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches is possible across eastern Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.
Try to stay warm and dry today. Have a Terrific Thursday!
We have seen quite a change over the last 24 hours. Yesterday, we reached the low 90s for highs in many areas. A cold front blew through the Big Country last night. Highs for today were reached at midnight last night. It looks like 60 will be our high for today at Abilene Regional Airport. Temperatures will hold steady or decline throughout the day. Daytime highs will range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s. Cloudy skies will rule the day with an 80% chance of rain. Showers will be off and on with heavy rain possible at times. Winds will be from the north-northeast at 15 to 25 mph with some higher gusts. It will be one of those dreary, chilly, wet, and breezy days. Be careful on roadways because there will be ponding in some areas. They will also be slick.
Tonight, we'll continue to see cloudy skies and a 50% chance of more showers. Winds will remain from the north at 10 to 15 mph. Lows will be in the low to mid 40s. If you are heading out this evening, it looks like you'll need to bring the rain gear with you.
Tomorrow should be a little better with warmer temperatures. Overall, it will still be cool with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Winds will be from the north at 5 to 15 mph. If you heading out to a football game under those Friday night lights tomorrow night, I suggest you have a jacket or at least some long sleeves because it will be cool off quickly once the sun goes down.
It looks like the weekend will be picture perfect with mostly sunny skies. Highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Enjoy the wonderful weekend weather, because more rain may be heading our way on Monday. Another upper level disturbance is expected to move near the Big Country at that time. We'll talk more about this later.
Here's a quick update on our latest tropical system. According to the National Hurricane Center, Tammy has weakend to a tropical depression. The storm has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and is moving west at 12 mph. Right now the center of the storm is located over extreme southeastern Alabama near Ozark. Tammy is expected to dissipate by later today. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches is possible across eastern Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.
Try to stay warm and dry today. Have a Terrific Thursday!
Wednesday, October 05, 2005
6:30p.m. Update
Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi here...
The cold front is now enterring the Northern Big Country at this hour.
Here's an impressive temperature swing for you to show just how strong this cold front is...
Lubbock at 5 p.m., 86 degrees
Lubbock at 6 p.m., 64 degrees
Expect temperatures to drop very similarly to that here in the Big Country tonight. And don't expect highs to warm up much tomorrow. Our high temperatures could very well take place just after midnight tonight. Then temperatures could hover around the upper 40s to low 50s throughout the day Thursday.
Showers and thunderstorms will push through the Big Country tonight as well. Expect mainly showers through the day on Thursday as well.
I'll have more on your extended forecast later tonight.
The cold front is now enterring the Northern Big Country at this hour.
Here's an impressive temperature swing for you to show just how strong this cold front is...
Lubbock at 5 p.m., 86 degrees
Lubbock at 6 p.m., 64 degrees
Expect temperatures to drop very similarly to that here in the Big Country tonight. And don't expect highs to warm up much tomorrow. Our high temperatures could very well take place just after midnight tonight. Then temperatures could hover around the upper 40s to low 50s throughout the day Thursday.
Showers and thunderstorms will push through the Big Country tonight as well. Expect mainly showers through the day on Thursday as well.
I'll have more on your extended forecast later tonight.
Cold Front Expected Later Today
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
With the cold front not expected to arrive until late this afternoon and evening (probably around 4 p.m. to 6 p.m.), it looks like temperatures will remain warm for one more day. Highs will be in the low 80s to about 90, with the coolest temperatures in the northern portions of the viewing area. Winds will be from the south most of the day at about 10 to 15 mph. As the front moves through the Big Country those winds will shift to the north-northeast and increase to about 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible. There is also a 20% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms today.
Tonight will be wet, breezy, and cool. Lows are expected to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Winds will be from the north-northeast at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible. The chance for rain has increased to 60%. Some models are indicating that we could see some heavy rain north of I-20. Be careful if you are going to be on the roadways this evening and overnight tonight since there will likely be some slick roadways.
If you like cool weather, then tomorrow is your day. It is possible that we will not see daytime highs make it past the mid to upper 50s. It will remain breezy with winds from the north at 10 to 20 mph. There is also a 40% chance of rain. Overall, rain totals for Wednesday through Thursday are expected to be a quarter of an inch to half an inch in most locations. It is possible that some spots could see as much as an inch of rainfall.
Skies will begin clearing Friday. It will start off a little chilly with morning lows in the mid to upper 40s. Highs should reach the mid to upper 60s. It looks like we will some great football weather Friday night, but you'll probably need some long sleeves or a jacket. The weekend looks picture perfect right now with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 70s. Another chance for rain arrives on Monday. We'll have more about that over the next couple of days.
I wanted to give you a quick update on the tropics this morning since we have a new tropical storm. Tropical Storm Tammy formed this morning just off the Florida coastline east of Cocoa Beach. According to the National Hurricane Center, as of 11:00 a.m. EDT (10:00 a.m. CDT) this morning, Tammy had sustained winds of 40 mph and was moving to the north at 14 mph. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Cocoa Beach, FL to South Santee River, SC. The latest path projection has Tropical Storm Tammy making landfall along the Florida coastline later today. We will continue to keep you updated on the latest as Tammy moves closer to making landfall.
Have a wonderful Wednesday!
With the cold front not expected to arrive until late this afternoon and evening (probably around 4 p.m. to 6 p.m.), it looks like temperatures will remain warm for one more day. Highs will be in the low 80s to about 90, with the coolest temperatures in the northern portions of the viewing area. Winds will be from the south most of the day at about 10 to 15 mph. As the front moves through the Big Country those winds will shift to the north-northeast and increase to about 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible. There is also a 20% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms today.
Tonight will be wet, breezy, and cool. Lows are expected to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Winds will be from the north-northeast at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible. The chance for rain has increased to 60%. Some models are indicating that we could see some heavy rain north of I-20. Be careful if you are going to be on the roadways this evening and overnight tonight since there will likely be some slick roadways.
If you like cool weather, then tomorrow is your day. It is possible that we will not see daytime highs make it past the mid to upper 50s. It will remain breezy with winds from the north at 10 to 20 mph. There is also a 40% chance of rain. Overall, rain totals for Wednesday through Thursday are expected to be a quarter of an inch to half an inch in most locations. It is possible that some spots could see as much as an inch of rainfall.
Skies will begin clearing Friday. It will start off a little chilly with morning lows in the mid to upper 40s. Highs should reach the mid to upper 60s. It looks like we will some great football weather Friday night, but you'll probably need some long sleeves or a jacket. The weekend looks picture perfect right now with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 70s. Another chance for rain arrives on Monday. We'll have more about that over the next couple of days.
I wanted to give you a quick update on the tropics this morning since we have a new tropical storm. Tropical Storm Tammy formed this morning just off the Florida coastline east of Cocoa Beach. According to the National Hurricane Center, as of 11:00 a.m. EDT (10:00 a.m. CDT) this morning, Tammy had sustained winds of 40 mph and was moving to the north at 14 mph. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Cocoa Beach, FL to South Santee River, SC. The latest path projection has Tropical Storm Tammy making landfall along the Florida coastline later today. We will continue to keep you updated on the latest as Tammy moves closer to making landfall.
Have a wonderful Wednesday!
Tuesday, October 04, 2005
Front Is Still On Time
Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi here...
I don't have too much to add to Brandon's sentiments from earlier in the day.
The cold front is still on track to arrive late tomorrow afternoon into the early evening. The first to feel the effects will be the North and Northwestern Counties. After that, the front should have no problem making it through the rest of the viewing area by 10:00 p.m. Wednesday.
Rain chances still look good, but rain totals do not. It looks like we will still see a batch of thunderstorms initially as the front barrels through, but after that light showers look to be all we'll see. From the data in at this point, if you see an inch of rain total over the next two days, consider yourself lucky.
The cooler air will stick with us through the weekend. Highs will struggle to get up to 70 degrees Friday. Saturday and Sunday look very nice with sunny skies and highs in the middle to upper 70s.
Our next chance of rain looks to be Monday-Wednesday of next week. A deep trough in the jet stream will develop and we will be in a very favorable area for showers and thunderstorms each day. One thing for us to watch will be the final end place for the remnants of Stan. If the system makes it across Central America and out into the Pacific, the deep trough should pick up the remnant mositure and possbily carry said moisture into West Central Texas.
I don't want to get too excited about this yet, but this does show the signs of possible enough rainfall to get us back to normal by mid-week next week. We'll just have to wait and see.
Please, go out and make it a GREAT day!
I don't have too much to add to Brandon's sentiments from earlier in the day.
The cold front is still on track to arrive late tomorrow afternoon into the early evening. The first to feel the effects will be the North and Northwestern Counties. After that, the front should have no problem making it through the rest of the viewing area by 10:00 p.m. Wednesday.
Rain chances still look good, but rain totals do not. It looks like we will still see a batch of thunderstorms initially as the front barrels through, but after that light showers look to be all we'll see. From the data in at this point, if you see an inch of rain total over the next two days, consider yourself lucky.
The cooler air will stick with us through the weekend. Highs will struggle to get up to 70 degrees Friday. Saturday and Sunday look very nice with sunny skies and highs in the middle to upper 70s.
Our next chance of rain looks to be Monday-Wednesday of next week. A deep trough in the jet stream will develop and we will be in a very favorable area for showers and thunderstorms each day. One thing for us to watch will be the final end place for the remnants of Stan. If the system makes it across Central America and out into the Pacific, the deep trough should pick up the remnant mositure and possbily carry said moisture into West Central Texas.
I don't want to get too excited about this yet, but this does show the signs of possible enough rainfall to get us back to normal by mid-week next week. We'll just have to wait and see.
Please, go out and make it a GREAT day!
One More Warm Day
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
For those of you who like the warm weather, you had better get out and enjoy today because a cold front will be arriving tomorrow. Fall-like temperatures will be returning and sticking around for a while this time.
Today will begin mostly sunny, but should be at least partly cloudy by this afternoon. Highs should be in the mid 80s to low 90s, which is similar to yesterday. It will also be breezy at times with winds from the south at 10 to 15 mph. Tonight, it will continue to be breezy, humid, and mild with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. There will be a wide range of temperatures tomorrow depending on when the cold front arrives. Highs in the northern communities will likely be in the upper 70s, while the central and southern communites should see highs in the low to mid 80s. Winds will be from the south then shift to the north behind the front at 10 to 20 mph. Expect stronger winds as the front moves through the area tomorrow afternoon and evening. We also have a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow. Rain is definitely needed since we are about 2.5" inches behind where we should be at this point in the year at Abilene Regional Airport.
There is a 20% chance of rain on Thursday. It will also be much cooler with highs only in the low 60s. Some of the computer models this morning have us only reaching the upper 50s for highs. I'm not buying into those numbers just yet. This is the first time the models have us that cool, so I would like to see another run or two before I put those type numbers in the forecast.
It will warm up on Friday and Saturday, but highs will still be below average for this time of year. Highs on Friday are expected to be around 70. Saturday we should make it into the upper 70s. If you are going to be out early on Friday or Saturday morning, you will definitely need a jacket with morning lows expected to be in the upper 40s.
Have a terrific Tuesday!
For those of you who like the warm weather, you had better get out and enjoy today because a cold front will be arriving tomorrow. Fall-like temperatures will be returning and sticking around for a while this time.
Today will begin mostly sunny, but should be at least partly cloudy by this afternoon. Highs should be in the mid 80s to low 90s, which is similar to yesterday. It will also be breezy at times with winds from the south at 10 to 15 mph. Tonight, it will continue to be breezy, humid, and mild with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. There will be a wide range of temperatures tomorrow depending on when the cold front arrives. Highs in the northern communities will likely be in the upper 70s, while the central and southern communites should see highs in the low to mid 80s. Winds will be from the south then shift to the north behind the front at 10 to 20 mph. Expect stronger winds as the front moves through the area tomorrow afternoon and evening. We also have a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow. Rain is definitely needed since we are about 2.5" inches behind where we should be at this point in the year at Abilene Regional Airport.
There is a 20% chance of rain on Thursday. It will also be much cooler with highs only in the low 60s. Some of the computer models this morning have us only reaching the upper 50s for highs. I'm not buying into those numbers just yet. This is the first time the models have us that cool, so I would like to see another run or two before I put those type numbers in the forecast.
It will warm up on Friday and Saturday, but highs will still be below average for this time of year. Highs on Friday are expected to be around 70. Saturday we should make it into the upper 70s. If you are going to be out early on Friday or Saturday morning, you will definitely need a jacket with morning lows expected to be in the upper 40s.
Have a terrific Tuesday!
Monday, October 03, 2005
The Roller Coaster Ride Continues...
Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi here...
A lot folks have been telling me they can't believe how hot it has been the last few days. You know what, they're right!
But... Think back to this time last week when we were tying record highs of 104 and 102, now that was HOT. Fast forward to today, the high temperature recorded at Abilene Regional Airport was only 91. Now Mother Nature does not have to do quite as much work to cool us down because "the tracks have already been laid."
This next cold front due to arrive in the Big Country sometime Wednesday afternoon/evening will bring in colder air because it will not modify near as much on the way down from Canada. Last week that air warmed through the plains states because the air was warmer there. This week, that air in the plains and Rockies, just like ours, is about 10-15 degrees cooler this week than it was at the same time last week.
Now to what is becoming a problem around here, the lack of rainfall. At Abilene Regional Airport we now stand with 16.11" of rain for 2005. This time last year we had racked up 23.81".
For the 2005, we are now 2.50" below our average rainfall. Now, we are by no means in dire straights here, but some rain sure wouldn't hurt. Unless you live in the Lake Stamford community of course. This cold front will probably have a much better shot at firing off a few isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
The difference between this front is that we actually have moisture around for the rain. Last week we had just finished dealing with "Rita." Although we didn't see any rain from Rita, we did get a lot of dry air get pulled in through the Big Country into Rita. Because of the timing of Rita and the cold front, we just were not able to get sufficient moisture back in place last time around. This time, we're sitting at 9:00 p.m. with a 65 degree dewpoint versus dewpoints in the 30s and 40s last week.
It looks like this may be the end of our 90 degree weather as well. The "door to Canada" is now open and another cold front looks to arrive sometime early next week.
As always, if you have any questions, comments, complaints, heck even a compliment or two :-), feel free to post them here on the board or e-mail me a ccarnesi@krbc.tv.
Please, go out and make it a GREAT day!
A lot folks have been telling me they can't believe how hot it has been the last few days. You know what, they're right!
But... Think back to this time last week when we were tying record highs of 104 and 102, now that was HOT. Fast forward to today, the high temperature recorded at Abilene Regional Airport was only 91. Now Mother Nature does not have to do quite as much work to cool us down because "the tracks have already been laid."
This next cold front due to arrive in the Big Country sometime Wednesday afternoon/evening will bring in colder air because it will not modify near as much on the way down from Canada. Last week that air warmed through the plains states because the air was warmer there. This week, that air in the plains and Rockies, just like ours, is about 10-15 degrees cooler this week than it was at the same time last week.
Now to what is becoming a problem around here, the lack of rainfall. At Abilene Regional Airport we now stand with 16.11" of rain for 2005. This time last year we had racked up 23.81".
For the 2005, we are now 2.50" below our average rainfall. Now, we are by no means in dire straights here, but some rain sure wouldn't hurt. Unless you live in the Lake Stamford community of course. This cold front will probably have a much better shot at firing off a few isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
The difference between this front is that we actually have moisture around for the rain. Last week we had just finished dealing with "Rita." Although we didn't see any rain from Rita, we did get a lot of dry air get pulled in through the Big Country into Rita. Because of the timing of Rita and the cold front, we just were not able to get sufficient moisture back in place last time around. This time, we're sitting at 9:00 p.m. with a 65 degree dewpoint versus dewpoints in the 30s and 40s last week.
It looks like this may be the end of our 90 degree weather as well. The "door to Canada" is now open and another cold front looks to arrive sometime early next week.
As always, if you have any questions, comments, complaints, heck even a compliment or two :-), feel free to post them here on the board or e-mail me a ccarnesi@krbc.tv.
Please, go out and make it a GREAT day!
Warm Start To The Week
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
This past weekend was hot with highs in the low to mid 90s. We should be a little cooler, but still warm the first half of this week. We'll start today with mostly cloudy skies, but by this afternoon we should see partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the mid 80s to low 90s with breezy conditions.
Tonight, it should remain breezy and humid with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Tomorrow will be warm and breezy with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Wednesday is when changes should begin. Highs are expected to reach the low to mid 80s before a cold front arrives in the afternoon to evening hours. There is a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. It is on Thursday morning that those fall-like temperatures should return. It looks like we will start the day in the low 50s and only warm up into the upper 60s. Friday morning could be our coolest morning of the week with lows expected to be in the upper 40s. Highs should be in the low 70s. So right now, it looks like it will definitely feel like football weather Friday night.
In the tropics right now, we continue to watch two storms. One in the Gulf of Mexico and the other in the Pacific Ocean. First, Tropical Storm Stan passed over the Yucatan Pennisula this weekend. The current path projection has it moving west and impacting the Mexican coastline Wednesday morning well south of Texas. The other storm we are keeping an eye on is Tropical Storm Otis. It is expected for now to parallel the Baja California coastline and then turn west by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. We continue to see some moisture from Otis moving into the western portions of the state and even into our area. Other than a few extra clouds, Otis shouldn't affect us too much here in the Big Country.
For those of you who like the warm weather, enjoy the next couple of days. For those of you who like the cooler weather, just try to hang on a little longer. Have a magnificent Monday!
This past weekend was hot with highs in the low to mid 90s. We should be a little cooler, but still warm the first half of this week. We'll start today with mostly cloudy skies, but by this afternoon we should see partly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the mid 80s to low 90s with breezy conditions.
Tonight, it should remain breezy and humid with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Tomorrow will be warm and breezy with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Wednesday is when changes should begin. Highs are expected to reach the low to mid 80s before a cold front arrives in the afternoon to evening hours. There is a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. It is on Thursday morning that those fall-like temperatures should return. It looks like we will start the day in the low 50s and only warm up into the upper 60s. Friday morning could be our coolest morning of the week with lows expected to be in the upper 40s. Highs should be in the low 70s. So right now, it looks like it will definitely feel like football weather Friday night.
In the tropics right now, we continue to watch two storms. One in the Gulf of Mexico and the other in the Pacific Ocean. First, Tropical Storm Stan passed over the Yucatan Pennisula this weekend. The current path projection has it moving west and impacting the Mexican coastline Wednesday morning well south of Texas. The other storm we are keeping an eye on is Tropical Storm Otis. It is expected for now to parallel the Baja California coastline and then turn west by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. We continue to see some moisture from Otis moving into the western portions of the state and even into our area. Other than a few extra clouds, Otis shouldn't affect us too much here in the Big Country.
For those of you who like the warm weather, enjoy the next couple of days. For those of you who like the cooler weather, just try to hang on a little longer. Have a magnificent Monday!
Sunday, October 02, 2005
Cooler Temperatures Arrive A Little Later
From Meteorologist Jason Myers........
Temperatures were a few degrees cooler today with the high temperature in Abilene at 91 degrees. Cloud cover from Tropical Storm Otis contributed to keeping the temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
High temperatures will remain warm Monday through Wedneday....Highs will be in the upper 80s on Monday and Tuesday, and low-to-mid 80s on Wednesday.
Cooler temperatures are set to arrive overnight Wednesday into Thursday which is a little later than first thought. The cold front should arrive later during the day on Wednesday bringing a 20% chance of rain for Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight low temperatures Wednesday night into early Thursday morning will drop into the lower 50s, so make sure you and the kids have a jacket before you go out the door on Thursday. High temperatures on Thursday will not make it out of the 60s. Friday temperatures will reach the lower 70s, so it will still feel mild, making for some great Friday Night Football!
Have a great week!
Temperatures were a few degrees cooler today with the high temperature in Abilene at 91 degrees. Cloud cover from Tropical Storm Otis contributed to keeping the temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
High temperatures will remain warm Monday through Wedneday....Highs will be in the upper 80s on Monday and Tuesday, and low-to-mid 80s on Wednesday.
Cooler temperatures are set to arrive overnight Wednesday into Thursday which is a little later than first thought. The cold front should arrive later during the day on Wednesday bringing a 20% chance of rain for Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight low temperatures Wednesday night into early Thursday morning will drop into the lower 50s, so make sure you and the kids have a jacket before you go out the door on Thursday. High temperatures on Thursday will not make it out of the 60s. Friday temperatures will reach the lower 70s, so it will still feel mild, making for some great Friday Night Football!
Have a great week!
Saturday, October 01, 2005
Cooler Temperatures And Rain Chances This Week
From Meteorologist Jason Myers......
It was a hot start for the first day of October. Our high temperature today was 94 degrees, 11 degrees above our normal high for this time of the year. The hot temperatures will stay around for Sunday-Tuesday, yet there are some big changes on the way starting Tuesday night. A cold front will be pushing through the Big Country late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Along with this cold mass of air advancing into Texas, there will be a 20% chance of thunderstorms/showers Tuesday night, and a 30% chance of thunderstorms/showers on Wednesday. Mostly cloudy skies on Wednesday and Thursday will aid in helping to keep things cooler, and we could potentially see the temperatures drop during the day on Wednesday. For now, it looks like high temperatures will be lower 70s Wednesday and Thursday.
The tropics are staying active with tropical depression 19 and 20 in the Atlantic and Category 1 Hurricane Otis in the Pacific. Hurricane Otis looks to loose it's strength quickly over the next few days as it moves slowly to the north causing ocean upwelling, which will mix cooler waters in, and as it moves over mountainous terrain of Baja California. The moisture from Hurricane Otis will give significant rain to Arizona, and is worth keeping an eye on to see if we get any of this moisture later in the week.
What may affect our weather even more is Tropical Depression 20. TD 20 is just east of the Yucatan Peninsula moving west-northwest at 6 mph. Sustained winds are at 35 mph making it close to becoming a tropical storm. Once winds reach 39 mph it will be Tropical Storm Stan, if Tropical Depression 19 doesn't become a tropical storm first. TD 20 is projected to continue on its WNW direction until it gets into the Gulf of Mexico, where it looks to become a Hurricane and turn due west making landfall in Northern Mexico. The moisture from TD 20, which could become Hurricane Stan or Tammy (depending on TD 19's strengthening), could be brought into Texas, giving southern Texas plenty of rain. So Tropical Depression 20 is something we'll be keeping an eye on as well.
Tropical Depression 19 has winds at 35 mph. TD 19 does not look to be a threat to the U.S. since it will move to the north in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.
It will be interesting weather-wise as we get closer to Wednesday. We'll keep you updated with the latest here at KRBC 9.
It was a hot start for the first day of October. Our high temperature today was 94 degrees, 11 degrees above our normal high for this time of the year. The hot temperatures will stay around for Sunday-Tuesday, yet there are some big changes on the way starting Tuesday night. A cold front will be pushing through the Big Country late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Along with this cold mass of air advancing into Texas, there will be a 20% chance of thunderstorms/showers Tuesday night, and a 30% chance of thunderstorms/showers on Wednesday. Mostly cloudy skies on Wednesday and Thursday will aid in helping to keep things cooler, and we could potentially see the temperatures drop during the day on Wednesday. For now, it looks like high temperatures will be lower 70s Wednesday and Thursday.
The tropics are staying active with tropical depression 19 and 20 in the Atlantic and Category 1 Hurricane Otis in the Pacific. Hurricane Otis looks to loose it's strength quickly over the next few days as it moves slowly to the north causing ocean upwelling, which will mix cooler waters in, and as it moves over mountainous terrain of Baja California. The moisture from Hurricane Otis will give significant rain to Arizona, and is worth keeping an eye on to see if we get any of this moisture later in the week.
What may affect our weather even more is Tropical Depression 20. TD 20 is just east of the Yucatan Peninsula moving west-northwest at 6 mph. Sustained winds are at 35 mph making it close to becoming a tropical storm. Once winds reach 39 mph it will be Tropical Storm Stan, if Tropical Depression 19 doesn't become a tropical storm first. TD 20 is projected to continue on its WNW direction until it gets into the Gulf of Mexico, where it looks to become a Hurricane and turn due west making landfall in Northern Mexico. The moisture from TD 20, which could become Hurricane Stan or Tammy (depending on TD 19's strengthening), could be brought into Texas, giving southern Texas plenty of rain. So Tropical Depression 20 is something we'll be keeping an eye on as well.
Tropical Depression 19 has winds at 35 mph. TD 19 does not look to be a threat to the U.S. since it will move to the north in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.
It will be interesting weather-wise as we get closer to Wednesday. We'll keep you updated with the latest here at KRBC 9.
Friday, September 30, 2005
Late Update
Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi here...
I apologize for the lack of blog updates today, it has been a crazy day around KRBC today. Meetings here and there about things and of course, FRIDAY NIGHT LIVE!
Oh yeah, one other thing, Mother Nature delivering a good dose of severe weather across the Northern Big Country tonight. Strong thunderstorms waited until sunset to fire up tonight. We had a pretty decent cap on the Big Country today. We've talked about caps before, but basically a capping inversion is a warm layer in the middle levels of the atmosphere. The way convection works is by warmer air lifting through air warmer than the surrounding environment. On a "normal" day, air temperatures cool the higher in the atmosphere you go. On a day like today, you have an inversion in the mid-levels, and temperatures actually warm as opposed to cool. Thus, all uplift ceases. You either need a strong lifting force to lift the moister air higher than warmer air, or you have to cool those mid levels down to allow the lifting process to work on its own. Tonight, a combination of both took place with the upper-level low I've been talking about during newscasts sending upper level energy our way and the cooling of the cap at sunset, and boom, strong thunderstorms fired up.
The only reports we've gotten from Haskell and Knox counties have been some golfball sized hail and strong winds in excess of 60 mile per hour. Some isolated areas received up to two inches of rain.
After tomorrow (Saturday) morning, our rain chances come to end until mid-week next week. We should have plenty of moisture around ahead of another strong cold front due in sometime Wednesday.
Please, go out and make it a GREAT weekend everyone!
I apologize for the lack of blog updates today, it has been a crazy day around KRBC today. Meetings here and there about things and of course, FRIDAY NIGHT LIVE!
Oh yeah, one other thing, Mother Nature delivering a good dose of severe weather across the Northern Big Country tonight. Strong thunderstorms waited until sunset to fire up tonight. We had a pretty decent cap on the Big Country today. We've talked about caps before, but basically a capping inversion is a warm layer in the middle levels of the atmosphere. The way convection works is by warmer air lifting through air warmer than the surrounding environment. On a "normal" day, air temperatures cool the higher in the atmosphere you go. On a day like today, you have an inversion in the mid-levels, and temperatures actually warm as opposed to cool. Thus, all uplift ceases. You either need a strong lifting force to lift the moister air higher than warmer air, or you have to cool those mid levels down to allow the lifting process to work on its own. Tonight, a combination of both took place with the upper-level low I've been talking about during newscasts sending upper level energy our way and the cooling of the cap at sunset, and boom, strong thunderstorms fired up.
The only reports we've gotten from Haskell and Knox counties have been some golfball sized hail and strong winds in excess of 60 mile per hour. Some isolated areas received up to two inches of rain.
After tomorrow (Saturday) morning, our rain chances come to end until mid-week next week. We should have plenty of moisture around ahead of another strong cold front due in sometime Wednesday.
Please, go out and make it a GREAT weekend everyone!
Temperatures Begin To Rise
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
It looks like the nice and cool conditions will end for a little while after this morning. We will warm up quite a bit today thanks to winds shifting back to the south. They will be light this morning, but by this afternoon it could be a little breezy. Highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s. There is a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The best chance will be along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor. Some of these storms could reach severe limits. The Storm Predicition Center has put the northern Big Country in a slight risk for severe weather today. The main threats will be large hail and damaging winds. The reason for our chance of rain is an upper level low currently in northern New Mexico. It is expected to move east across the Texas panhandle by later today and tonight.
Speaking of tonight, it could be a little wet for some Friday night football games. If you are heading to a game north of I-20, I would suggest packing the rain gear just in case. Not everyone will get wet, but the possibility is there that a few of you might. The chance of rain for tonight is 30% with lows in the mid to upper 60s.
We could see a lingering shower or thunderstorm in the morning tomorrow. The rest of Saturday should be nice with partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. It will be breezy with winds from the south-southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
The rest of the weekend and early next week should be warm and dry with highs around 90.
Right now, it looks like another cold front may arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday giving us a chance of rain and cooling us down to temperatures similar to what we saw yesterday.
Have a wonderful weekend!
It looks like the nice and cool conditions will end for a little while after this morning. We will warm up quite a bit today thanks to winds shifting back to the south. They will be light this morning, but by this afternoon it could be a little breezy. Highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s. There is a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The best chance will be along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor. Some of these storms could reach severe limits. The Storm Predicition Center has put the northern Big Country in a slight risk for severe weather today. The main threats will be large hail and damaging winds. The reason for our chance of rain is an upper level low currently in northern New Mexico. It is expected to move east across the Texas panhandle by later today and tonight.
Speaking of tonight, it could be a little wet for some Friday night football games. If you are heading to a game north of I-20, I would suggest packing the rain gear just in case. Not everyone will get wet, but the possibility is there that a few of you might. The chance of rain for tonight is 30% with lows in the mid to upper 60s.
We could see a lingering shower or thunderstorm in the morning tomorrow. The rest of Saturday should be nice with partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. It will be breezy with winds from the south-southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
The rest of the weekend and early next week should be warm and dry with highs around 90.
Right now, it looks like another cold front may arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday giving us a chance of rain and cooling us down to temperatures similar to what we saw yesterday.
Have a wonderful weekend!
Thursday, September 29, 2005
Thursday Afternoon Thoughts...
Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi here...
Wow, what a day across the Big Country. Snyder has only warmed up to 64 degrees so far this afternoon, Sweetwater is at 70, Abilene is at 74, Brownwood is at 75 and Comanche has only warmed to 72.
Unfortunately, the cool down will be short-lived. As we mentioned before, winds will come back around to the South by sunrise tomorrow, and that combined with more sunshine, afternoon highs will climb back into the middle 80s.
There will be a slight to 30% chance of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Low level moisture has been a little stronger to return to South Texas after the front, and we expect the moisture to build back in to the Big Country starting tomorrow morning. In fact, we may see our overnight low temperature sometime around the 4:00 a.m. to 6:00 a.m. timeframe. Temperatures may actually start to warm back up before sunrise depending upon when the winds shift back around to the Southeast.
Back to the rain, the Storm Prediction Center has put the Northern Big Country under a slight risk of severe storms. Again, this will all depend on how quickly the moisture returns.
We will keep a 20-30% chance of rain through the overnight hours Friday into Saturday and then only a slight chance of a few storms Saturday.
This is definately a different forecast than we chatted about yesterday, again, this is one of those instances where the computer models are continuing to go back and forth on our rain chances.
For now though, the only football games I see threatened for delays will be North of an Anson to Snyder line. No need to sweat just yet, this could all change once again later tonight or tomorrow morning.
I'll post again later this evening...
Wow, what a day across the Big Country. Snyder has only warmed up to 64 degrees so far this afternoon, Sweetwater is at 70, Abilene is at 74, Brownwood is at 75 and Comanche has only warmed to 72.
Unfortunately, the cool down will be short-lived. As we mentioned before, winds will come back around to the South by sunrise tomorrow, and that combined with more sunshine, afternoon highs will climb back into the middle 80s.
There will be a slight to 30% chance of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Low level moisture has been a little stronger to return to South Texas after the front, and we expect the moisture to build back in to the Big Country starting tomorrow morning. In fact, we may see our overnight low temperature sometime around the 4:00 a.m. to 6:00 a.m. timeframe. Temperatures may actually start to warm back up before sunrise depending upon when the winds shift back around to the Southeast.
Back to the rain, the Storm Prediction Center has put the Northern Big Country under a slight risk of severe storms. Again, this will all depend on how quickly the moisture returns.
We will keep a 20-30% chance of rain through the overnight hours Friday into Saturday and then only a slight chance of a few storms Saturday.
This is definately a different forecast than we chatted about yesterday, again, this is one of those instances where the computer models are continuing to go back and forth on our rain chances.
For now though, the only football games I see threatened for delays will be North of an Anson to Snyder line. No need to sweat just yet, this could all change once again later tonight or tomorrow morning.
I'll post again later this evening...
Fall-Like Temperatures Have Arrived
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
The cool and dry air behind the cold front has definitlely arrived. You could feel it as soon as you stepped outside this morning. The fall-like temperatures are a week late, but as I sometimes like to say "better late than never." Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s today, which is about 25 to 30 degrees cooler than yesterday. By the way our high of 102 at Abilene Regional Airport yesterday tied the record high of 102 set back in 1953. Hopefully we have seen the last of the triple digit temperatures for 2005. It will remain breezy today with winds from the north-northeast at 10 to 20 mph.
Tonight will be another cool night with lows in the mid to upper 50s. Winds should begin shifting to the east at 5 to 10 mph. Tomorrow winds shift to the south at 5 to 15 mph. This will help warm us up a little bit with highs in the low to mid 80s, which is what we expect to see this time of year.
There is a 20% chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the northern portions of the viewing area on Friday night. This is due to an upper level low pressure system that will be moving northeast from New Mexico to Kansas. For now, this looks to be the only chance of rain in the area for at least the next five days. Saturday and Sunday look nice with partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 80s.
Enjoy the cooler temperatures today and have a terrific Thursday.
The cool and dry air behind the cold front has definitlely arrived. You could feel it as soon as you stepped outside this morning. The fall-like temperatures are a week late, but as I sometimes like to say "better late than never." Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s today, which is about 25 to 30 degrees cooler than yesterday. By the way our high of 102 at Abilene Regional Airport yesterday tied the record high of 102 set back in 1953. Hopefully we have seen the last of the triple digit temperatures for 2005. It will remain breezy today with winds from the north-northeast at 10 to 20 mph.
Tonight will be another cool night with lows in the mid to upper 50s. Winds should begin shifting to the east at 5 to 10 mph. Tomorrow winds shift to the south at 5 to 15 mph. This will help warm us up a little bit with highs in the low to mid 80s, which is what we expect to see this time of year.
There is a 20% chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the northern portions of the viewing area on Friday night. This is due to an upper level low pressure system that will be moving northeast from New Mexico to Kansas. For now, this looks to be the only chance of rain in the area for at least the next five days. Saturday and Sunday look nice with partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 80s.
Enjoy the cooler temperatures today and have a terrific Thursday.
Wednesday, September 28, 2005
Fall Is Finally Here!
Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi here...
Well, Mother Nature has finally decided to give us a break. The first big cold front of the Fall season has arrived.
R&B joked in a comment that he only went from 99 to 81 in a couple of hours in Sweetwater and it didn't seem very cold. I know you were just kidding R&B, but I want folks to think about that for a minute. I'll use the numbers from Abilene Regional Airport as an example.
At 7:00 p.m. it was 99 degrees at ABI. (ABI is the 3-letter airport identifier code for Abilene Regional Airport) Now, at 9:00 p.m., it is 79 degrees. That's 20 degrees in only two hours. That is a massive amount of cooler air to do that much work, in that short of time. I won't get into physics here, but wow, that's a lot of energy to cool off the air that quickly. Think about coming home from work or school and you've had the air conditioner off all day and your house has warmed up to 85 degrees. You turn the AC on and set it to 75. Depending on the size of your house and the strength of your AC, it generally will take about 30 minutes to cool the house down to 75. Tonight, Mother Nature has turned her AC on and cooled the entire Big Country 20 degrees in just two hours. Even though I've studied it and forecasted it, it's still amazing to see that kind of energy at work.
Incidently, there were calls made to the KRBC newsroom and the Abilene Fire Department tonight about the smell of smoke in the air as the cold front arrived. The front actually blew in smoke and haze from North of Abilene. There were small fires in Hamby and that smoke was carried into the city with the front.
Unfortunately, this cold front will only cool us down for a couple of days. I don't expect to see any 100 degree afternoons anytime soon, but I don't think we've seen our last 90 degree day of 2005 just yet. By Friday afternoon winds will swing back around to the South. That will allow our highs to creep back into the lowers 80s. The weekend looks dry with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
We had mentioned a chance for rain this weekend, unfortunately it looks like we will remain too dry in the lower levers of the atmosphere and more importantly the upper-level disturbance that was going to produce the lift for the showers looks like it will move farther North than earlier expected. There will still be a slim chance for a shower North of IH-20, but not enough of a chance to throw a percentage up on the forecast pages.
Now to a question posted a little while ago...
Eileen said...
Now, how is it calculated into the total precipitation for a year. What I mean is, if we had let's say 26.95 inches of rainfall and 10 inches of snow, how would they come up with the total amount of precipatation for the year.
Depending on the snow type (wet snow, dry snow etc...) the average equation that is used is a 10 to 1 formula. So, your 10 inches of snow would equal 1 inch of water when melted. As before, this is a topic that I could go into detail with, but I'll refer those interested to the website of one of my professors at Mississippi State University, Meteorologist Jeff Haby. At the following link Jeff explains the different "average" equations for the different types of snow. Also, at the bottom of his page, he has a link to a National Weather Service website that will take you into even further detail on the subject. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/346/
That's it for now. I'm off to enjoy the cooler air and the wonderful sound of silence as I shut my air conditioner off for the night!
Craig...
Well, Mother Nature has finally decided to give us a break. The first big cold front of the Fall season has arrived.
R&B joked in a comment that he only went from 99 to 81 in a couple of hours in Sweetwater and it didn't seem very cold. I know you were just kidding R&B, but I want folks to think about that for a minute. I'll use the numbers from Abilene Regional Airport as an example.
At 7:00 p.m. it was 99 degrees at ABI. (ABI is the 3-letter airport identifier code for Abilene Regional Airport) Now, at 9:00 p.m., it is 79 degrees. That's 20 degrees in only two hours. That is a massive amount of cooler air to do that much work, in that short of time. I won't get into physics here, but wow, that's a lot of energy to cool off the air that quickly. Think about coming home from work or school and you've had the air conditioner off all day and your house has warmed up to 85 degrees. You turn the AC on and set it to 75. Depending on the size of your house and the strength of your AC, it generally will take about 30 minutes to cool the house down to 75. Tonight, Mother Nature has turned her AC on and cooled the entire Big Country 20 degrees in just two hours. Even though I've studied it and forecasted it, it's still amazing to see that kind of energy at work.
Incidently, there were calls made to the KRBC newsroom and the Abilene Fire Department tonight about the smell of smoke in the air as the cold front arrived. The front actually blew in smoke and haze from North of Abilene. There were small fires in Hamby and that smoke was carried into the city with the front.
Unfortunately, this cold front will only cool us down for a couple of days. I don't expect to see any 100 degree afternoons anytime soon, but I don't think we've seen our last 90 degree day of 2005 just yet. By Friday afternoon winds will swing back around to the South. That will allow our highs to creep back into the lowers 80s. The weekend looks dry with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
We had mentioned a chance for rain this weekend, unfortunately it looks like we will remain too dry in the lower levers of the atmosphere and more importantly the upper-level disturbance that was going to produce the lift for the showers looks like it will move farther North than earlier expected. There will still be a slim chance for a shower North of IH-20, but not enough of a chance to throw a percentage up on the forecast pages.
Now to a question posted a little while ago...
Eileen said...
Now, how is it calculated into the total precipitation for a year. What I mean is, if we had let's say 26.95 inches of rainfall and 10 inches of snow, how would they come up with the total amount of precipatation for the year.
Depending on the snow type (wet snow, dry snow etc...) the average equation that is used is a 10 to 1 formula. So, your 10 inches of snow would equal 1 inch of water when melted. As before, this is a topic that I could go into detail with, but I'll refer those interested to the website of one of my professors at Mississippi State University, Meteorologist Jeff Haby. At the following link Jeff explains the different "average" equations for the different types of snow. Also, at the bottom of his page, he has a link to a National Weather Service website that will take you into even further detail on the subject. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/346/
That's it for now. I'm off to enjoy the cooler air and the wonderful sound of silence as I shut my air conditioner off for the night!
Craig...
The Front Is Coming... I Promise...
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
So allow me to go on a little rant here if you don't mind... One of the toughest parts of forecasting for me is trying to rely on my gut instinct a little more. If you'll remember Monday night I was calling for high today (Wednesday) of 101 degrees. Well, Tuesday some of the computer models had backed off of the 100 temperatures and advertised the cold front arriving in time to prevent that from happening. I checked the progress of the cold front and thought there was a distinct possiblilty that the front would arrive in time to keep us from scorching too bad. I still thought that areas South of IH-20 would break the century mark.
Fast forward to the current, 3:00p.m., it's 99 in Sweetwater, 101 at Abilene Regional, 102 at Dyess and 102 in Brownwood. The cold front is coming, make no mistake about that, it's currently 66 in Amarillo with a North wind at 26 mph gusting to 33mph.
This is just another example for myself to follow my gut instinct. I know, some folks would say the difference between the 97 I forecasted for Wednesday, Tuesday night, is not that far off from where we are now, but it just stings a little to know I had it before, but now am off.
I just wanted to let you know how seriously us meteorologists take our forecasts, when we are off, it bothers us. A lot of people will tell us that they wish they had a job where they could be wrong and still get a paycheck. Well, we do everything in our power to not be wrong, but Mother Nature has a mind of her own and "outwits" every now and again.
On to a couple of questions/comments...
Eileen said...
Since the cold weather is on the way, I have a question about how snow is measured. Since it is in a different form of precipatation how is it calculated into inches?
To answer your question Eileen, there are a few different ways to "officialy" measure snow. Unfortunately, I don't think we'll be using any of these methods for at least of a couple of more months though at the earliest. The National Weather Service in Milwaukee has a great website that explains the techniques they use. The web site is http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/measure-snow.htm.
Here in Abilene, the National Weather Service uses what is known as an ASOS station at the Regional Airport for weather observations. Automated Surface Observing System is what the acronym stands for. The system uses a number of different methods to measure snow and all other weather measurements. For snow specifically, the system uses a light sensor to measure how much snow is falling. The main drawback of using these light sensors is, if the surface temperature is above freezing, the snow is melting on its way down. But, if there is snow on the ground already, the water will re-freeze. When this happens, the National Weather Service will use manual observations, as mentioned above from Milwaukee, to measure snow depth.
Here at KRBC, we try to set out a piece of plywood before a snowfall, and use an old fashioned ruler to measure how much snow sticks.
Amber Lawbyrd said...
I just wanted to thank you so much for setting up this blog. I love reading your insights and more detailed comments about the weather. I also like being able to check in, even when I am not near a television set. Very cool!
Thanks Amber! Your comments are exactly why we created the blog... Well, what you said, and the fact that we can't convince management to let us have the entire 30 minutes of a newscast so we can go into these details on the air!!! We'll win that battle eventually!
I'll post back here later... Now I'm off to beating myself up once again as I watch the thermometer rise.
Craig...
So allow me to go on a little rant here if you don't mind... One of the toughest parts of forecasting for me is trying to rely on my gut instinct a little more. If you'll remember Monday night I was calling for high today (Wednesday) of 101 degrees. Well, Tuesday some of the computer models had backed off of the 100 temperatures and advertised the cold front arriving in time to prevent that from happening. I checked the progress of the cold front and thought there was a distinct possiblilty that the front would arrive in time to keep us from scorching too bad. I still thought that areas South of IH-20 would break the century mark.
Fast forward to the current, 3:00p.m., it's 99 in Sweetwater, 101 at Abilene Regional, 102 at Dyess and 102 in Brownwood. The cold front is coming, make no mistake about that, it's currently 66 in Amarillo with a North wind at 26 mph gusting to 33mph.
This is just another example for myself to follow my gut instinct. I know, some folks would say the difference between the 97 I forecasted for Wednesday, Tuesday night, is not that far off from where we are now, but it just stings a little to know I had it before, but now am off.
I just wanted to let you know how seriously us meteorologists take our forecasts, when we are off, it bothers us. A lot of people will tell us that they wish they had a job where they could be wrong and still get a paycheck. Well, we do everything in our power to not be wrong, but Mother Nature has a mind of her own and "outwits" every now and again.
On to a couple of questions/comments...
Eileen said...
Since the cold weather is on the way, I have a question about how snow is measured. Since it is in a different form of precipatation how is it calculated into inches?
To answer your question Eileen, there are a few different ways to "officialy" measure snow. Unfortunately, I don't think we'll be using any of these methods for at least of a couple of more months though at the earliest. The National Weather Service in Milwaukee has a great website that explains the techniques they use. The web site is http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/measure-snow.htm.
Here in Abilene, the National Weather Service uses what is known as an ASOS station at the Regional Airport for weather observations. Automated Surface Observing System is what the acronym stands for. The system uses a number of different methods to measure snow and all other weather measurements. For snow specifically, the system uses a light sensor to measure how much snow is falling. The main drawback of using these light sensors is, if the surface temperature is above freezing, the snow is melting on its way down. But, if there is snow on the ground already, the water will re-freeze. When this happens, the National Weather Service will use manual observations, as mentioned above from Milwaukee, to measure snow depth.
Here at KRBC, we try to set out a piece of plywood before a snowfall, and use an old fashioned ruler to measure how much snow sticks.
Amber Lawbyrd said...
I just wanted to thank you so much for setting up this blog. I love reading your insights and more detailed comments about the weather. I also like being able to check in, even when I am not near a television set. Very cool!
Thanks Amber! Your comments are exactly why we created the blog... Well, what you said, and the fact that we can't convince management to let us have the entire 30 minutes of a newscast so we can go into these details on the air!!! We'll win that battle eventually!
I'll post back here later... Now I'm off to beating myself up once again as I watch the thermometer rise.
Craig...
Cooler Temperatures Are Almost Here
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
For those of you who love the really hot weather, enjoy today because much cooler weather will be here soon. There will be a range of temperatures across the area depending on when the cold front arrives later today. Most of us should see highs in the upper 90s, however those of you in the north and northwestern portions of the viewing area will likely see highs in the low to mid 90s. In the southeastern portions of the viewing area near Brownwood and Comanche you should see highs in the triple digits. Winds will begin from the southwest and then shift to the northwest behind the front and should be about 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight, lows are expected to be in the mid to upper 50s with a slight chance of a stray shower or thunderstorm. Rain chances are only slight due to a lack of moisture. Winds will be the main story tonight. They should pick up from the north-northeast at about 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected, so be aware if you are going to be out and about tonight.
Tomorrow, highs should be in the mid to upper 70s with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Breezy conditions are expected to remain with winds from the north-northeast at 10 to 20 mph.
Temperatures look to rebound for Friday through Sunday. Highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s. Models that were indicating a possible disturbance in the area have shifted the track to the north, so I have decreased our chances of rain this weekend to slight for now.
For those of you who love the really hot weather, enjoy today because much cooler weather will be here soon. There will be a range of temperatures across the area depending on when the cold front arrives later today. Most of us should see highs in the upper 90s, however those of you in the north and northwestern portions of the viewing area will likely see highs in the low to mid 90s. In the southeastern portions of the viewing area near Brownwood and Comanche you should see highs in the triple digits. Winds will begin from the southwest and then shift to the northwest behind the front and should be about 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight, lows are expected to be in the mid to upper 50s with a slight chance of a stray shower or thunderstorm. Rain chances are only slight due to a lack of moisture. Winds will be the main story tonight. They should pick up from the north-northeast at about 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected, so be aware if you are going to be out and about tonight.
Tomorrow, highs should be in the mid to upper 70s with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Breezy conditions are expected to remain with winds from the north-northeast at 10 to 20 mph.
Temperatures look to rebound for Friday through Sunday. Highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s. Models that were indicating a possible disturbance in the area have shifted the track to the north, so I have decreased our chances of rain this weekend to slight for now.
Tuesday, September 27, 2005
Hold On To Your Hats
Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi here...
Echoing Brandon's sentiments below, relief is on the way. Mother Nature is going to make sure you know it too. First we will have to deal with one more afternoon in the mid to upper 90s.
A tight pressure gradient ahead and behind the cold front is going to be responsible for winds sustained anywhere between 15-25 miles per hour starting as early as Thursday evening from Knox County down to Scurry County. Wind gusts could run up to 40-45 miles per hour at times.
As Brandon mentioned, there will be a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. The only problem this time around is that we just haven't gotten a whole lot of moisture back in the lower and middle layers of the atmosphere. That could change later in the week.
My main forecast concern right now will deal with afternoon high temperatures. Models generally have a hard time dealing with these early season cold fronts and try to warm us up a little too quickly after a front passes. Right now it looks like temperature will be back into the lower to middle 80s by Friday. But, I would not be surprised to see at least one more day of 70s for highs on Friday.
That change I mentioned later in the week is an upper level disturbance that looks like might make it to the Big Country by Saturday and Sunday. If we have enough moisture by then, we may see a better chance of being able to squeeze out a few showers and thunderstorms.
For now, hot weather lovers, enjoy your last day of 90-degree heat for awhile Wednesday... Fall weather lovers, hold on one more day, the front is coming!
Craig...
Echoing Brandon's sentiments below, relief is on the way. Mother Nature is going to make sure you know it too. First we will have to deal with one more afternoon in the mid to upper 90s.
A tight pressure gradient ahead and behind the cold front is going to be responsible for winds sustained anywhere between 15-25 miles per hour starting as early as Thursday evening from Knox County down to Scurry County. Wind gusts could run up to 40-45 miles per hour at times.
As Brandon mentioned, there will be a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. The only problem this time around is that we just haven't gotten a whole lot of moisture back in the lower and middle layers of the atmosphere. That could change later in the week.
My main forecast concern right now will deal with afternoon high temperatures. Models generally have a hard time dealing with these early season cold fronts and try to warm us up a little too quickly after a front passes. Right now it looks like temperature will be back into the lower to middle 80s by Friday. But, I would not be surprised to see at least one more day of 70s for highs on Friday.
That change I mentioned later in the week is an upper level disturbance that looks like might make it to the Big Country by Saturday and Sunday. If we have enough moisture by then, we may see a better chance of being able to squeeze out a few showers and thunderstorms.
For now, hot weather lovers, enjoy your last day of 90-degree heat for awhile Wednesday... Fall weather lovers, hold on one more day, the front is coming!
Craig...
The Heat Continues, But Relief May Be On The Way
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
A cold front moved through the area yesterday, which kept us from reaching the triple digits like we did on Sunday. It was still hot with highs mainly in the 90s across the Big Country. Temperatures for today will be similar to yesterday with highs expected to be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Tomorrow, temperatures should be even hotter with highs reaching the upper 90s and possibly the century mark in a few places. Our first bonafide cold front of the fall season is expected to arrive Wednesday night. Temperatures will be much cooler with highs mainly in the upper 70s on Thursday. There is also a 20% chance of rain with the front. Highs for Friday and Saturday should be in the mid to upper 80s which is slightly above average for this time of this year. Another disturbance may arrive on Friday night or Saturday, which will give us another 20% chance of showers or thunderstorms.
A cold front moved through the area yesterday, which kept us from reaching the triple digits like we did on Sunday. It was still hot with highs mainly in the 90s across the Big Country. Temperatures for today will be similar to yesterday with highs expected to be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Tomorrow, temperatures should be even hotter with highs reaching the upper 90s and possibly the century mark in a few places. Our first bonafide cold front of the fall season is expected to arrive Wednesday night. Temperatures will be much cooler with highs mainly in the upper 70s on Thursday. There is also a 20% chance of rain with the front. Highs for Friday and Saturday should be in the mid to upper 80s which is slightly above average for this time of this year. Another disturbance may arrive on Friday night or Saturday, which will give us another 20% chance of showers or thunderstorms.
Monday, September 26, 2005
Cold Front Passed, But It's Still Hot!
Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi with you on this fine Monday afternoon...
We finally got a little relief today in the form of a dry cold front. In Abilene we've topped out today at 91 so far, much better than yesterday's 104. (For more on yesterday's heat, scroll down to my earlier posting.) Snyder and Sweetwater only made it into the upper 80s as of 4:30 p.m.
I wish I could say we are done with the 100s, but unfortunately we are not. Wednesday's highs should climb back into the 100s, and we may even see a repeat of Sunday with highs in the 100-108 range. This is all in advance of another cold front, but this front will have much more of a punch than the last one. Highs across the Big Country will be lucky to make it to 80 after the front arrives Wednesday night. There's also a 20% chance of a few isolated showers or thunderstorms as this front passes. The moisture has been much quicker to return this time around than with this last front.
There won't be enough rain to end our deficit for 2005, but anything will help. I'll talk more specifics about how far we are behind rain wise during the news at 6:00 p.m. tonight.
As always, feel free to post all questions and comments here or send me an e-mail, ccarnesi@krbc.tv. I'll post here again later...
We finally got a little relief today in the form of a dry cold front. In Abilene we've topped out today at 91 so far, much better than yesterday's 104. (For more on yesterday's heat, scroll down to my earlier posting.) Snyder and Sweetwater only made it into the upper 80s as of 4:30 p.m.
I wish I could say we are done with the 100s, but unfortunately we are not. Wednesday's highs should climb back into the 100s, and we may even see a repeat of Sunday with highs in the 100-108 range. This is all in advance of another cold front, but this front will have much more of a punch than the last one. Highs across the Big Country will be lucky to make it to 80 after the front arrives Wednesday night. There's also a 20% chance of a few isolated showers or thunderstorms as this front passes. The moisture has been much quicker to return this time around than with this last front.
There won't be enough rain to end our deficit for 2005, but anything will help. I'll talk more specifics about how far we are behind rain wise during the news at 6:00 p.m. tonight.
As always, feel free to post all questions and comments here or send me an e-mail, ccarnesi@krbc.tv. I'll post here again later...
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