The Front Is Coming... I Promise...

From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...

So allow me to go on a little rant here if you don't mind... One of the toughest parts of forecasting for me is trying to rely on my gut instinct a little more. If you'll remember Monday night I was calling for high today (Wednesday) of 101 degrees. Well, Tuesday some of the computer models had backed off of the 100 temperatures and advertised the cold front arriving in time to prevent that from happening. I checked the progress of the cold front and thought there was a distinct possiblilty that the front would arrive in time to keep us from scorching too bad. I still thought that areas South of IH-20 would break the century mark.

Fast forward to the current, 3:00p.m., it's 99 in Sweetwater, 101 at Abilene Regional, 102 at Dyess and 102 in Brownwood. The cold front is coming, make no mistake about that, it's currently 66 in Amarillo with a North wind at 26 mph gusting to 33mph.

This is just another example for myself to follow my gut instinct. I know, some folks would say the difference between the 97 I forecasted for Wednesday, Tuesday night, is not that far off from where we are now, but it just stings a little to know I had it before, but now am off.

I just wanted to let you know how seriously us meteorologists take our forecasts, when we are off, it bothers us. A lot of people will tell us that they wish they had a job where they could be wrong and still get a paycheck. Well, we do everything in our power to not be wrong, but Mother Nature has a mind of her own and "outwits" every now and again.

On to a couple of questions/comments...

Eileen said...
Since the cold weather is on the way, I have a question about how snow is measured. Since it is in a different form of precipatation how is it calculated into inches?

To answer your question Eileen, there are a few different ways to "officialy" measure snow. Unfortunately, I don't think we'll be using any of these methods for at least of a couple of more months though at the earliest. The National Weather Service in Milwaukee has a great website that explains the techniques they use. The web site is http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/measure-snow.htm.

Here in Abilene, the National Weather Service uses what is known as an ASOS station at the Regional Airport for weather observations. Automated Surface Observing System is what the acronym stands for. The system uses a number of different methods to measure snow and all other weather measurements. For snow specifically, the system uses a light sensor to measure how much snow is falling. The main drawback of using these light sensors is, if the surface temperature is above freezing, the snow is melting on its way down. But, if there is snow on the ground already, the water will re-freeze. When this happens, the National Weather Service will use manual observations, as mentioned above from Milwaukee, to measure snow depth.

Here at KRBC, we try to set out a piece of plywood before a snowfall, and use an old fashioned ruler to measure how much snow sticks.

Amber Lawbyrd said...
I just wanted to thank you so much for setting up this blog. I love reading your insights and more detailed comments about the weather. I also like being able to check in, even when I am not near a television set. Very cool!

Thanks Amber! Your comments are exactly why we created the blog... Well, what you said, and the fact that we can't convince management to let us have the entire 30 minutes of a newscast so we can go into these details on the air!!! We'll win that battle eventually!

I'll post back here later... Now I'm off to beating myself up once again as I watch the thermometer rise.

Craig...