4:00 p.m. Thoughts & NHC Update

Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi here...

As of 4:00p.m. Hurricane Rita has been downgraded to a catagory 3 hurricane. This is definately a good thing for wind speeds and wind damage, but this storm is still going to cause extensive damage on the coast, and inland.

Most of the computer models are in agreement now by stalling Rita out in East Texas and producing rainfall totals anywhere from 10 to 30 inches. The only good thing is that East Texas has been experiencing drought conditions for awhile now and this will end those conditions.

Cole asked earlier on the blog: I'd really like to know your developing opinion about whether Rita will split that high pressure line or bump into it and stall; plans to Dallas are in my weekend, but I don't want to be flooded.

Personally I do not think that Rita will be able to push through the ridge of high pressure. I think this system will move inland somewhere between Houston and Tyler, and sit for at least 24-36 hours before drifting away. As far as the metroplex goes, it's a wait and see attitude. DFW has a much better chance of seeing potentially flooding rainfall than the Big Country. I'm fairly confident now that the Big Country will remain dry. I'm not 100% confident, but Abilene - West should be completely dry, and Abilene - East may see a few isolated showers.

Another question I've had e-mailed to me and called in: When should evacuees think about going back home?

At this point in time, I think people from the Galveston-Houston-Beaumont area should sit tight and call the Big Country home until Tuesday at the earliest. Everything will hinge on how long it takes Rita to get absorbed into the upper level winds and be carried out of Eastern Texas.

Here is the 4:00 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UPTO 205 MILES...335 KM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND AS FAR AS 100 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF RITA. AN ELEVATED STATION AT MARSH ISLAND LOUISIANA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDSOF 59 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 78 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERAIRCRAFT WAS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITHLARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPIAND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSEAREAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGEWAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OFTHE GULF COAST.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...

TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 25INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA.