Friday, August 31, 2007

Holiday Weekend Looking Good

From Chief Meteorologist Brandon Rector...

Below average temperatures remained in the Big Country today with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms developed across parts of the area this afternoon. They will likely last until sunset and then die out with the loss of daytime heating.

Drier air looks to filter into the region this weekend. With less moisture in place, our chance for rain Saturday and Sunday will be slight at best. If you have any outdoor plans, they should be fine since it is more likely we will be dry and anything that does develop will be isolated. Highs for the weekend look to be in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Beginning Labor Day and lasting through the next work week, more moisture should return to the Big Country. Some upper level disturbances could move into the area so there will be a chance for rain each day. Those chances range from 20% to 30% with the best shots being on Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs during this time period look to be in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Have a wonderful and safe weekend!

Holiday Weekend Weather

Good Morning from Morning Meteorologist Kristen Connolly...

Friday has come and the holiday weekend weather may be cooperating.
The cold front that pushed through the area last night has stalled out in the hill country. Showers and Thunderstorms will be greatest down around the I 10 corridor however we are not going to rule out storms in our area. The best chance will be in our Southern counties for today and tomorrow. Sunday looks like our best day with plenty of sunshine and temperatures back in the low 90's.

High pressure still dominates to the west which puts us in northwest flow aloft. Since we are in northwest flow we could again see disturbances pass through which will aid in the chance for showers and storms. We should stay in this flow until an upper level low forms over the Lone Star state the beginning of next week. This will bring back rain chances, with the best chance from next Tuesday to Thursday.

Temperatures will stay in the upper 80's with lows in the upper 60's.

Have a great Labor Day weekend!

Thursday, August 30, 2007

Thursday Evening Update

From Chief Meteorologist Brandon Rector...

The cold front we have been talking about all week moved through the area this morning. We did see some showers and thunderstorms this afternoon behind the front thanks to an upper level disturbance. None of the storms were severe, but they were capable of producing heavy rain, lightning, pea size hail and winds of 40 to 50 mph. Temperatures were only slightly cooler today as highs ranged from the low 80s to low 90s across the viewing area.

It now looks like the front will stall in south Texas instead of our area. This will reduce our rain chances for the rest of the week. We are still going to hold on to a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms for tomorrow and a 20% chance on Saturday due to the area remaining in a northerly flow aloft. Another factor that will limit our chance for rain is drier air moving into the Big Country. Dewpoints look to be lower this weekend and Labor Day. Highs for Friday and Saturday should be in the upper 80s.

With a lack of significant moisture Sunday and Monday, the chance for rain will only be slight. Highs are expected to remain in the upper 80s.

More moisture could return to the region beginning on Tuesday. With our flow aloft remaining from the north, we will increase the chance for rain back to 20% for the middle part of next week. Highs should still be in the upper 80s.

Have a fantastic Friday!

Thursday Morning Forecast

Good Morning from Morning Meteorologist Kristen Connolly...

Just after midnight we saw rainfall here in Abilene, picking up just over a half an inch and the Abilene Regional Airport. Temperatures this morning are staying in the low 70's.

Through the day today we will see a better chance for showers and thunderstorms. The cold front that has made its move through the Lone Star state is just north of Throckmorton and Haskell counties this morning. It should push further south today bringing with it a lifting mechanism for our rain along with cloud cover and cooler temperatures. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 80's.

Tomorrow we will see northwest flow aloft thanks to a strong upper level ridge out west. This could push disturbances through and bring more rain chances for the start of the weekend. The front should stall out in our just around our area and eventually washing out. This will leave better chance for outdoor activities by the end of the weekend and out Labor Day. I will keep 20% in the forecast with only a slight chance on the holiday.
Temperatures will be in the upper 80's with lows in the upper 60's.

Have a great day and don't forget the umbrella!

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Wednesday Afternoon Update

From Chief Meteorologist Brandon Rector...

We had mostly cloudy skies as well as some showers and thunderstorms develop across the area this afternoon. Highs were mainly in the upper 80s to low 90s with the exception of Brownwood which reached 97 again today.

The rain that developed today was due to a weak low pressure trough that was close to and in the eastern portions of the Big Country. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday through Saturday due to a cold front which should arrive tomorrow and then stall through the first half of the weekend. The chance for rain is 40%. It is possible for us to see heavy rain at times because these showers and thunderstorms should have plenty of moisture to feed off of and could be slow moving too. Highs during this time period look to be in the mid to upper 80s, but could be cooler depending on how much rain and cloud cover we see.

The front may still be hanging around on Sunday so we will keep a 30% chance for rain in the forecast. Highs will be in the upper 80s under partly cloudy skies.

For the first half of next week, there may be some upper level disturbances rolling through or close to the region. This may cause some showers and thunderstorms to develop. The chance for rain is 20%. Highs for Monday, Labor Day, through next Wednesday are expected to be in the upper 80s.

Have a terrific Thursday!

Wednesday Morning Forecast

Good Morning from Morning Meteorologist Kristen Connolly…

Yesterday, we saw a cloudless morning but by the afternoon the cumulous clouds formed with even a few isolated showers and thunderstorms popping up around the area thanks to the daytime heating. Overnight has stayed fairly clear with lows right around 70.

Today we will see partly cloudy skies with chance of showers and thunderstorms. The front that has been pushing through US is currently draped from the great lakes to just north of the Panhandle. Today it should stay north of our area but will gradually push father south and make it through the Big Country tomorrow morning or early afternoon. This will help us increase the rain chances for tomorrow and Friday. The front should stall over the area which will keep the rain chances around for the beginning of the holiday weekend. The front will knock highs back to the mid to upper 80's.

Have a great day!

Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Tuesday Afternoon Update

From Chief Meteorologist Brandon Rector...

Seasonal temperatures continued for much of the Big Country today with highs mainly in the low 90s. Brownwood did manage to make it to 97 this afternoon. A few small isolated showers and weak thunderstorms developed over the eastern portions of the viewing area during the late afternoon hours, but they were all short lived and should end once the sun sets tonight.

A cold front that is currently moving into central plains is expected to arrive in the Big Country by Thursday. It is then expected to stall through at least the first half of the weekend. Our chance for rain will be slight tomorrow, but by Thursday and Friday it is 30%. For Saturday, the chance of rain is 40%. With decent chances for rain in the forecast, it looks like we will need to take the rain gear with us to the football games this weekend. Highs during this time period will be in the mid to upper 80s.

Some upper level disturbances could affect the area Sunday and early next week. The chance for rain on Sunday is 30%, but it drops to 20% for Monday and next Tuesday. Highs look to be in the upper 80s.

Have a wonderful Wednesday!

Tuesday Morning Forecast

Good Morning from Morning Meteorologist Kristen Connolly…

We saw a very clear and calm overnight perfect weather for the viewing of the total lunar eclipse that happened at just before 5 am and lasted until 6:22 am. If you weren't able to make it out, don't fret the next one will be happening February 21, 2008.

Today we will see weather just as beautiful as it has been the last few days. We will see plenty of sunshine and temperatures in the lower 90's. Right where we should be for the end of August. We could see an isolated shower or thunderstorm mainly in our southeastern counties and that will be the trend over the next week.

Rain chances will gradually increase each day. With a northwest flow developing aloft and a front approaching the Panhandle we will see the lifting factors we need to bump the rain chances up. The front looks to hang out just north of our area but could gradually push closer toward us by the end of the week and stall out. With more cloud cover and rain we will see highs drop to the mid to upper 80's just in time for our Labor Day
holiday. You may need to push the picnic inside!

Have a great day!

Monday, August 27, 2007

Dry For Now, Rain Possible Later This Week

From Chief Meteorologist Brandon Rector...

It was a typical late August day for us here in the Big Country. Lows this morning were in the low 70s and highs were in the low 90s. This is exactly where we should be this time of year for temperatures. It did feel a little warmer than that thanks to dewpoints running in the mid to upper 60s.

Tuesday looks to be similar to today with highs in the low 90s under partly cloudy skies.

A cold front that is currently in the northern plains is expected to make its way slowly southward during the week. It is possible that for us to see some rain late Wednesday into Thursday, but better chances for rain will be on Friday and Saturday as the front finally arrives in our area and stalls for a bit. The chance for rain starts out slight on Wednesday and tops out at 40% on Saturday. Highs are expected to be in the low 90s Wednesday and Thursday. Friday and Saturday will be cooler with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

The chance for rain will continue at 30% on Sunday and 20% next Monday. Highs look to be around 90.

Don't forget about the lunar eclipse tonight. Well actually, it will be early tomorrow morning. The total eclipse will begin for us at 4:52 a.m. and ends at 6:22 a.m. If you have a chance, get out and take a look at it because the next total lunar eclipse won't be until February 21, 2008.

Have a terrific Tuesday!

Monday Morning Forecast

Good Morning from Morning Meteorologist Kristen Connolly...

It was a warm and dry weekend across the Big Country with highs in the lower 90's. We will continue to see the nice weather across the area until midweek.

With an upper level ridge still dominating we will see mostly sunny skies and seasonably warm temperatures in the low 90's. We are also seeing drier weather so it should feel more comfortable in the afternoon.

By mid week we could see a few disturbances be pushed through the area aloft along with a frontal boundary being pushed down and arriving in our area toward the end of the week. Rain chances will be at slight Wednesday increasing to 20% for Thursday and 30% for Friday. With the front highs will drop back to the upper 80's.

Have a great day!

Sunday, August 26, 2007

Sunday Afternoon Update....

From Meteorologist Nathan Motz.....

Another warm and dry day across west central Texas this Sunday, when will we break the monotony? Not for a few more days it appears as temperatures will remain in the low to mid 90's area-wide through at least Wednesday.

By Thursday we begin to pick up a slight chance for rain as the center of high pressure over the southern half of the country slides to the west and allows weak northerly flow aloft to develop overhead. Weak disturbances in the northerly flow aloft could cause isolated t-storms on Thursday into Friday.

The best chance of rain will hold off until Saturday as a weak cool front will try to make its way into the area. This is the time of year that we begin to see the first cool fronts of the season make their way south after the long hot summer months (which weren't really all that hot this summer). The front is forecast to stall across the area and if it decides to hang around a while, rain chances may have to be increased for next Sunday as well.

Overnight lows remain in the low to mid 70's throughout this upcoming week.

Have a wonderful Sunday!

Saturday, August 25, 2007

Saturday Evening Post

From Meteorologist Nathan Motz......

Not too many changes to discuss today, although there were a few isolated showers that did pop up to the northeast of Abilene in eastern Shackelford county. These showers fired up around the hottest part of the day and persisted until around 7 pm before dying out as the sun began to sink over the western horizon.

For the rest of tonight, a few upper level clouds will continue to drift across the area and temperatures will fall into the low to mid 70's. Winds will remain calm out of the south at 5-10 mph.

A couple more warm & dry days separate us from changes coming up towards the end of the work week as a cool front will try to push south across the area late Thursday night into Friday morning. As it does we will begin to see a chance for isolated to widely scattered showers & t-storms starting on Wednesday and continuing into the early part of next weekend. Right now, however, it appears that the best chance of rain will be on Friday as the cool front actually passes through the area.

Have a sensational Saturday!!!

Friday, August 24, 2007

Friday Night Update

Good Evening from Meteorologist Kristen Connolly...

It was a warm, breezy and sunny day across the area as temperatures stayed in the upper 80's to low 90's. We are going to continue to see dry weather in our area through the weekend.

A cold front has stalled out just to the North of the panhandle with showers and thunderstorms popping up along the boundary. The front shouldn't make any more of a progression southward so the activity should stay isolated to the panhandle and red river valley area. With high pressure to the east we will see lots of sunshine and temperatures around average in the low 90's. The winds which have been a relief this week should kick back a bit but still bring in some moisture hence the humidity is going no where fast.

As the kids head back to school they can leave the rain gear at home but should keep it close. Tuesday we will return the rain chances to the forecast. They best chance will come mid week as a different cold front will move through the area. This should knock temperatures just a few degrees back but will bring with it a lot more cloud cover and scattered showers.

Have a great weekend!

Thursday, August 23, 2007

Thursday Evening Update

From Chief Meteorologist Brandon Rector...

We were a little warmer across the Big Country today. Highs were in the upper 80s to low 90s. Brownwood was the hot spot at 97. It was windy today with winds from the south at 2o to 25 mph and gusts of 26 to 31 mph. This was due to a tight pressure gradient being right over us. We have high pressure to our southeast and a low pressure trough to our west. When these features are close together like they are today, we get breezy to windy conditions. A Flood Warning continues for the Clear Fork Brazos River at Fort Griffin in Shackelford county until Friday afternoon. The river is running about 3 feet above flood stage in that area.

Friday and Saturday are looking dry right now with highs in the low 90s under partly cloudy skies.

A stationary front that is currently in the central plains looks to make its way into the Texas panhandle and Oklahoma on Sunday. This may be just close enough for the northern part of the viewing area to see some showers and thunderstorms. The chance for rain is slight. Highs are expected to be in the low 90s.

A slight chance for rain will continue on Monday and Tuesday. Highs should remain in the low 90s.

A cold front is expected to move into the region Wednesday night into next Thursday. This will bring us our best chance for rain in the next seven days. The chance for precipitation is 20%. Highs should be in the low 90s on Wednesday and the upper 80s on Thursday.

Have a fantastic Friday!

Thursday Morning Forecast

Good Morning from Morning Meteorologist Kristen Connolly...

We are starting the day off with a bit of cloud cover and temperatures in the low 70's. Its still a bit muggy with dew points in the 70's.
We are going to see a fairly comfortable afternoon compared to what it could be for this time of year . Temperatures will stay in the low 90's with plenty of sunshine and scattered clouds. We could see an isolated shower in our southern counties but most of us will just see perfect weather for the afternoon.

As high pressure builds in from the east we will see warmer temperatures and less cloud cover for the beginning of the weekend. The kiddos will be able to enjoy the beautiful weather before they have to hit the classes next week. A front will approach the panhandle by Saturday which could bring a few showers to our Northern counties for the end of the weekend to the beginning of next week.

Tropical Depression Deans last advisory was issued this morning it is now just a low pressure system that will bring rain to the southwest.

Have a great day!

Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Wednesday Evening Update

From Chief Meteorologist Brandon Rector...

Below average temperatures continued for us today with highs mainly in the mid 80s to low 90s. Brownwood was a little warmer at 95. The Clear Fork Brazos River is still running about three feet above flood stage at Fort Griffin in Shackelford county. It will crest tomorrow morning and does not look to go back below flood stage until Friday afternoon.

We may see a few sprinkles tomorrow, but Friday and Saturday look to be dry. Highs should be in the low 90s under partly cloudy skies.

A cold front looks to make it as far south as the Red River on Sunday. This could send some showers and thunderstorms into at least the northern portions of the viewing area. Upper level disturbances may cause some rain for us early next week. The chance for rain Sunday through next Wednesday is slight. Highs should be in the low 90s.

Hurricane Dean made its second landfall in Mexico this morning near the town of Tecolutla. It's maximum sustained winds at that time were 100 mph which is a category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Tonight, the storm has weakened all the way down to a tropical depression. It is expected to continued moving through central Mexico tonight and tomorrow.

Have a terrific Thursday!

Wednesday Morning Forecast

Good Morning from Morning Meteorologist Kristen Connolly...

Tuesday was a comfortable afternoon across the Big Country with highs only reaching the upper 80's. We will continue to see below average temperatures for a few more days however mid 90's will return with a High pressure moving in.

For today and tomorrow we are still watching the tropical upper level sitting Northern Mexico. It is bring with it gulf moisture and popping showers in the Hill Country. Because of this system there will be a chance for isolated showers mainly for our south and southeastern counties for today and tomorrow. Temperatures will stay in the low 90's.

We are also seeing high pressure slide into the area from the east. This will keep us warm and dry for the beginning of the weekend. This feature will also help to keep Deans moisture pushed towards southern California and Arizona.

By the beginning of next week a front could push in from the North this will bring back a slight chance for showers for our northern counties.

Hurricane Dean is only a Category one storm and will make its second landfall sometime towards early afternoon in Mexico, near Tuxpan. The storm could strengthen before landfall but will quickly weaken once it makes its passes over land. The only impact the Lone Star state is seeing is a few outer bands bringing in a bit of cloud cover and scattered showers to the Gulf Coast.

Have a great day!

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Tuesday Evening Update

From Chief Meteorologist Brandon Rector...

Most of us dealt with below average temperatures this afternoon with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Brownwood was a little warmer at 95. The Clear Fork Brazos River has fallen below flood stage at Nugent in Jones county. The river is still expected to rise above flood stage tonight at Fort Griffin in Shackelford county. It will crest about 4 feet above flood stage Thursday morning. A Flood Warning remains in effect for Shackelford and Throckmorton counties because of this.

Rain chances are looking less than slight for tomorrow through Saturday. An upper level low that was in south Texas is moving to the west-southwest into Mexico. Hurricane Dean will likely make a second landfall between Tampico and Veracruz in Mexico tomorrow. Both of these system are a little too far south to really affect us. It is possible for a few stray showers or thunderstorms to make it into the extreme south-southeastern portions of the viewing area, but it is unlikely. Highs Wednesday through Saturday should be in the low 90s.

A cold front will try to make it into Oklahoma late this weekend into early next week. With a northerly flow aloft expected to set up across our area by that time, it is possible for us to see some showers and thunderstorms move into the region. For now the chance is slight, but that could change as we get closer to Sunday. Highs look to remain in the low 90s.

Hurricane Dean weakend from a category 5 storm to a category 1 by the time it exited the Yucatan Pennisula this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are 80 mph. It should strengthen back to a category 2 or 3 as it moves across the Bay of Campeche on its way to a second landfall in Mexico. We'll continue to keep you updated on the latest with Dean.

Have a wonderul Wednesday!

Tuesday Morning Forecast

Good Morning from morning meteorologist Kristen Connolly…

It was a breezy and humid day across the Big Country to start off our work week. Temperatures toped off in the lower 90's although it felt closer to 100 with the heat index.

Today we will see plenty of sunshine with scattered clouds. The winds will kick up a bit which should help to keep a breeze, a relief from the heat. Again the humidity will factor in to make it feel 5 to 10 degrees warmer.

Tomorrow we will return the rain chances to the area however i am keeping them only at slight. A tropical upper level low pressure system should push into south Texas but it is a fairly weak system. With it we could see more moisture pushed our way however I think the best chance for any rain will be our south and southeastern counties. We will continue the same for Thursday.

By the beginning of the weekend we will remove the rain chances and bring back the partly cloudy skies.

Through the week temperatures stay in the lower 90's with lows in the lower 70's.

Hurricane Dean made landfall near Chetumal, Mexico early this morning around 3:30 am. It reached a category 5 hurricane with winds topped at 165 mph. It is the third most intense hurricane to make landfall after the Labor Day hurricane in 1935 and Gilbert in 1988. The hurricane will move back into the Bay of Campeche after pushing over the Yucatan peninsula today. It will make another impact in southern Mexico by tomorrow after reintensifying. With its current track we should see no effects from the storm.

Have a good day!

Monday, August 20, 2007

Monday Evening Update

From Chief Meteorologist Brandon Rector...

It was a hot and dry day here in the Big Country today. That was a good thing considering all of the rain and flooding that we have expereience the past couple of days. We will continue to see some flooding along the Clear Fork Brazos River especially around Nugent and Fort Griffin. A Flood Warning is in effect for Jones, Shackelford and Throckmorton counties because of this.

We will have a slight to 20% chance of rain every day for the rest of the week. An upper level low should continue to move across south Texas through the middle of the week. By the end of the week, we will be keeping our eye on a cold front that should make it into Oklahoma. This could cause a little bit of rain for our northern communties. Highs this week look to be in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Hurricane Dean has reached category 5 status. Maximum sustained winds are 160 mph. The latest projected path from the Tropical Prediction Center has the storm making landfall tomorrow morning in the Yucatan Pennisula. At this time, it doesn't look like the storm will make much of an impact on Texas. The extreme southern portions of the state could see some rain from the outer bands, but that is about it. We'll continue to keep you updated on the progress of this storm.

Have a terrific Tuesday!

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