Tuesday, November 29, 2005

Windy Conditions Return Tomorrow

From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...

Sorry for the late update today. We started off cold this morning. In fact it was the coldest morning of the season so far in Abilene and Brownwood. Here in Abilene we started off at 22, while in Brownwood temperatures bottomed out at 21. It was a cool afternoon across the Big Country with highs only reaching the upper 40s to low 50s. Cold temperatures are expected again tonight with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Tomorrow will be much different than today. Highs will reach the upper 60s to low 70s with windy conditions. Winds are expected to be from the south-southwest at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts possible. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for most of the viewing area for Wednesday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Stephens, Eastland, and Commanche counties for tomorrow. This means you should put off any outdoor burning plans you may have had. We see these types of watches and warnings when we have low relative humidity values, gusty winds, and dry conditions.

The roller coaster ride of temperatures continues Thursday through Sunday. A cold front will move through tomorrow night and cool temperatures back down for Thursday. Highs should be in the mid to upper 50s. Unfortunately, no rain is expected with this front. We warm back up quickly on Friday and Saturday with highs in the low 70s. Yet another cold front is expected to arrive Saturday night into Sunday morning. No rain is expected with this front either. Highs should be in the mid to upper 50s for Sunday.

Have a terrific Tuesday evening and a wonderful Wednesday!

Monday, November 28, 2005

Monday Evening Update

From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...

Nothing much to add to my discussion from this morning. It still looks like we'll see below freezing temperatures tonight across the area. Lows in the mid to upper 20s are expected. Put an extra blanket on the bed and protect your pets, plants, and pipes.

Temperatures will be like a roller coaster this week. We'll warm up tomorrow to the upper 50s. Highs should be in the upper 60s by Wednesday with breezy conditions. A cold front moving through the area late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning brings highs back down to the upper 50s for Thursday. We'll warm up into the upper 60s for Friday and Saturday. No rain is expected for the next five days.

Have a marvelous Monday evening!

Not As Windy Today

From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...

We started off chilly this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Today, we'll warm up close to our seasonal average for this time of year with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. I have good news and bad news as far as winds go for today. The good news is that it won't be as windy today as it was yesterday. The bad news is that it will still be breezy. Winds from the west-northwest at 10 to 20 mph are expected.

Optimal raditional cooling conditions are setting up for tonight. We'll have clear skies, light winds, and a dry airmass. This means it should be cold tonight. Lows in the mid to upper 20s are expected, so protect your pets, plants, and pipes.

The rest of the week looks to be fairly quiet. Tuesday and Wednesday will be mostly sunny with highs in the 60s. A cold front is expected to move into the Big Country late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Highs on Thursday should only reach the mid to upper 50s. A quick warm up will likely occur on Friday with highs in the mid 60s.

It looks like November 2005 will go down as one of the driest we have ever experienced. A trace of rainfall was recorded at Abilene Regional Airport yesterday. That trace is all we have seen this month at the airport. If we don't receive another drop of rain before the month ends, this November will tie four others as the 2nd driest November on record. Hopefully this dry trend will end soon, however it doesn't look good for at least the next week.

Have a magnificent Monday!

Sunday, November 27, 2005

5:45 p.m., Sunday, November 27th, 2005

From meteorologist Jason Myers......


A messy day for traveling with wind gusts ranging from 40 to 50 mph across the Big Country. The high winds are the result of a tight pressure gradient due to a strong low pressure system that is moving across the Great Plains of the U.S. There is a cold front with this low pressure system that moved across the Big Country in the early afternoon hours. This cold front will bring temperatures down 10 to 20 degrees from what they were on Saturday. Morning low temperatures on Monday will be in the lower 30s so take the jacket with you. Monday's high will only reach 59 degrees for Abilene, so it will be much cooler than what we've seen lately for a high temperature. Low temperatures Monday night into Tuesday morning will drop below the freezing mark for much of the Big Country due to clear skies and light winds aiding in radiational cooling, and cold air in place.
Another cold front will approach the Big Country on Thursday with highs falling back down into the upper 50s for Thursday and Friday.
Due to dry air in place, there will not be any significant chances for rain.


On a side note, tropical storm Delta is close to reaching hurricane status with winds at 70 mph. Delta is about 600 miles west of Africa heading to the northeast at 26 mph. Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DELTA LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER COOLER WATERS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...29.0 N... 28.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

Have a great week and be careful driving tonight.

Saturday, November 26, 2005

6:30 pm - Saturday, November 26th

From meteorologist Jason Myers.......


Another warm day in November with a high of 75 degrees...14 degrees above what we would expect for this time of the year. A cold front is on the way, and will pass through the Big Country late Sunday morning into the early afternoon. This cold front will not bring any precipitation with it because of all the dry air in place, yet it will bring high winds. There is a Wind Advisory for much of the Big Country from 9 am to 5 pm Sunday, meaning that caution needs to be used with any driving due to wind gusts that could reach up to 40 or 50 mph.

There is also a Red Flag Warning, which means that fires could easily get out of hand due to the high winds, dry air, and warm temperatures. Please do not burn anything tomorrow because of the Red Flag Warning which is effect from 9 am to 5 pm. Cooler temperatures will stay with us this week after the cold front passes. Overnight temperatures Sunday into Monday, and Monday into Tuesday will get down into the lower 30s, with a few areas reaching the freezing mark. It will be important to the the jacket with you this week, and a windbreaker for Sunday.

Friday, November 25, 2005

10:35 p.m. Update

From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...

First off, our congratulations to the Abilene High football team on an outstanding season.

A few isolated showers will be possible early Saturday... After that, the dry pattern returns.

We will clear out shower-wise and cloud-wise from West to East during the day Saturday. Winds will be a bit breezy, running 10 to 20 miles per hour.

By Sunday, an area of low pressure will develop over Northern Oklahoma, this will tighten up the pressure gradient over West Central Texas. When this happens, hold on to your hats... Wind speeds will increase to 20 - 30 miles per hour sustained Sunday. Gusts could run 40-50 miles per hour. If the winds due get to the forecasted strength, blowing dirt and dust will be possible Sunday and Sunday afternoon.

We will see a couple of decent shot of colder air this next week, with a couple of freezes possible.

The only problem, we will remain dry for the foreseeable future after Saturday.

Let The Holiday Shopping Season Begin

From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...

Good morning. I hope all of you had a wonderful Thanksgiving. Today is the day many shoppers have been waiting for. It's Black Friday and that means there are a lot of bargins out there. In case you are wondering, there are only 30 shopping days left until Christmas. If you are going out this morning, you will want to wear a jacket or coat as temperatures will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Seasonal temperatures are expected this afternoon with highs in the low 60s. That temperature is very dependant on how much cloud cover we see today. If we have a lot of clouds we may not make it out of the 50s, and if we see more sun than clouds then we may warm up into the mid to upper 60s.

The upper level low we have been talking about all week is in northern Mexico this morning. It is expected to move across south Texas later today and tonight. With moisture being brought into the area from this system as well as the subtropical jetstream, we may see some showers and thunderstorms tonight and into early tomorrow. Overall, I'm going with a 20% chance of rain tonight and a 30% chance tomorrow. The best chance of rain in our area will be south of I-20. Rain chances are higher in south Texas for tonight and tomorrow. This means if you are heading to the Abilene High football game in Waco you will need to bring the rain gear. It could be a little messy. Since we could see some rain across portions of the state tonight and tomorrow, you will want to be careful on the roadways. It has been a while since we have seen some rain and the roadways will likely be slick. Lows tonight will be in the low 50s.

Another storm system will move across the panhandle and into Oklahoma on Sunday. We shouldn't see any rain, but it will probably be windy. Winds could be at least 20 to 30 mph. Highs will be above average in the mid to upper 70s.

Cooler temperatures arrive on Monday with a cold front. Highs are expected to be in the low 60s. Tuesday should even cooler with highs only in the mid 50s. No rain is expected with the front.

It looks like our only chance of rain before the end of November is tonight and Saturday. If no rain falls at Abilene Regional Airport before the month ends, then we will have gone through all of November with no rain in the rain bucket. This would tie the record for the driest November. The last time we went with no rain in the month was back in 1949. Hopefully, we will get some rain and not have to worry about tying this record.

Have a fantastic Friday and a wonderful weekend!

Thursday, November 24, 2005

Changes on the way...

Happy Thanksgiving from Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi and the entire Triple Doppler team of meteorologists!

After a weak cold front passed through the Big Country today, our high temperatures were generally a good 10 degrees cooler. Expect another 10 degrees cooler Friday with highs only in the upper 50's to lower 60's.

We can also expect to see at least a few showers and thunderstorms across the Big Country Friday evening and overnight into Saturday as well.

The best chances, as mentioned before, will be in the Eastern and Southeastern portions of the viewing area.

By Saturday afternoon skies will clear and we will warm back up into the lower 70's.

Sunday will be windy and warm with West-Southwesterly winds running 15 to 20 miles per hour and high temperatures in the middle to upper 70's.

Next week we will return to a more fall-like pattern, with the polar jet stream taking a rather large dip into the Central and Southern Plains. This trough will bring us more dry weather, but more importantly, much colder weather.

Wednesday, November 23, 2005

Happy Thanksgiving!

From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...

Before we go to the weather... I would like to wish you and yours a very happy and safe Thanksgiving Holiday weekend.

A cold front will arrive early in the day Thursday. This front will cool our temperatures back down to below normal by Friday. Thanksgiving will see high temperatures in the middle to upper 60's. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy as mid-level and upper level moisture continues to pour into the Big Country from the Southwest.

By late Friday, showers and thunderstorms will be possible, mainly across the Eastern and Southeastern viewing area. The upper-level system we've been talking about the past few days will pass to the South of us, brining the best chances of rain to those areas. We can't rule out a few showers across the Central and Western Big Country, but unfortunately, the chances do not look as good.

Rain chances will continue early in the day Saturday, but by Saturday evening much drier air will filter into the viewing area ending rain chances for quite awhile.

Please, go out and make it a GREAT and HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

Terrific Turkey Day Weather On Tap For Us

From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...

Temperatures to start off this morning were similar to yesterday. Lows ranged from the upper 20s to mid 40s. If you are traveling today, you shouldn't have any weather problems across the Big Country or pretty much the entire state. Highs in our area will be in the mid to upper 70s, which is well above average for this time of year. If you are traveling somewhere else in the country today, the only area where you will likely see some delays is in the Great Lake and northeastern states. There will be some snow and rain in those areas.

Thanksgiving Day, or Turkey Day, will be beautiful. A cold front is expected to move through the area, but no rain is expected. Skies should be partly cloudy with highs in the low 70s. This means you can either watch football inside or play some outside.

For those of you who will be out and about for this biggest shopping day of the year on Friday, you will probably want at least a jacket in the morning and possibly throughout the day. We'll begin the day with temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s. It looks like temperatures will only reach the low to mid 60s for highs.

An upper level low off the coast of California is still expected to move close to the Big Country on Saturday. The only change is that some models are indicating that this system may move to the south of us. It seems like each day the computer models are adjusting the path of this low. It's still a little early to tell exactly how much we'll be impacted by this system. For now, I'm going with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms for Saturday and highs in the low 60s.

There's also a 20% chance of rain on Sunday due to another upper level low moving close to the area. This one looks to move in from the northwest. While you shouldn't have much in the way of weather problems for your travel today, coming back this weekend may be a different story. It could be messy, so you will need to be careful on your return travel.

Have a safe and happy Thanksgiving holiday!

Tuesday, November 22, 2005

The Computer is Back!

From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...

As you probably saw tonight, my weather graphics computer has returned! Thanks to our engineers who worked hard, Carlos, Jerome to name a couple... And to Brandon Rector... Those folks got the computer back to normal this morning...

On to our weather, more warmth for the next couple of afternoons. Travel weather looks great for Wednesday across the Lone Star State.

The changes in our weather pattern will begin as early as Wednesday though. We will begin to see a few more clouds around the area. Mainly an upper level cirrus deck. These clouds will keep our overnight low temperatures a little milder.

On Thanksgiving a cold front will push through the Big Country and afternoon highs Friday will return to below normal.

After that, we will turn our attention to an upper level low pressure system that will aid in bringing in more moisture and lift for showers and thunderstorms beginning Saturday. Right now I'm calling for a 30% chance of showers. That chance will coninue through Monday with another system pulling in behind the first.

I'm still not convinced we will see a drenching from these systems, but I think we will at least see a few showers over the weekend. Either way, streets will be very slick as you drive to or from your holiday destinations. We have not seen measurable precipitation at Abilene Regional Airport since October 31. When we finally do get some rain, that rain will lift all of the dirt and grease on the roadways back up to the surface making things a little slicker than usual.

That, combined with the added travelers on the roads, could make this driving home from your holiday destination this weekend a little more dangerous on the roadways. Please use extra caution, give yourself extra time, and if you do run into wet roads, please slow down.

Mild Temperatures Continue

From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...

The good news is that the graphics computer that Craig mentioned in last night's update is working this morning. Hopefully it will continue to work properly. We started off chilly this morning with lows mainly in the mid 30s to low 40s. Brownwood was the exception as they bottomed out at 28. Everyone will see mild and pleasant conditions this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 70s. Tonight should not be as chilly with lows mainly in the low to mid 40s. Brownwood could reach the mid 30s.

It should be a beautiful day to travel around the Big Country tomorrow. Mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 70s are expected. It still looks like most of the country will be okay for travel. The only places where you will likely have some delays is in the Great Lakes, Ohio River Valley, and the northeastern states. The beautiful weather continues on Thanksgiving. Highs should be a couple degrees cooler than Wednesday with mostly sunny skies.

Changes look to begin on Friday. A cold front is expected to move through the area and cool us down quite a bit from what we have experienced lately. Highs may only reach the low to mid 60s with partly cloudy skies. If you are going to be heading out early in the day for all of those big sales at the stores, I would suggest wearing long sleeves and a jacket. Temperatures that morning should be in the upper 30s to low 40s.

It still looks like we may see some rain this weekend and early next week. Some computer models are indicating that the cut-off upper level low off the coast of California will move into the Big Country by Saturday. As I mentioned yesterday, these type of lows have had a tendency to move to our north lately as they approach the Lone Star State. Right now, I'm going with a 30% chance of rain for Saturday. That percentage could go up, down, or stay the same over the next few days. We'll continue to monitor the situation throughout the week and keep you updated.

Have a terrific Tuesday!

Monday, November 21, 2005

Major Computer Problems

From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...

First off, I apologize for the late update tonight. We have had some major computer problems in the weather center. Nothing that affects our forecasting, but the computer that displays our graphics on the air.

Which, brings up an interesting point. Aren't computers amazing? Right now, at 12:00 a.m. Central, I'm watching a technician in PA work on my computer. They "dial" into the computer and move the mouse and open programs and run the computer just like I can. They've been working on it all day long.

And after I couldn't get a sinlge graphic on TV during either the 6 or 10 p.m. newscasts, by 6 a.m. Tuesday morning you will see the weather just like you did this morning. All because of the folks in PA "dialing" into the system and fixing it. Amazing.

As for our weather, high pressure will dominate over the next few days keeping us Sunny & Warm through Thanksgiving.

After that, we'll be watching an upper level system approach from the West. That system could bring us our first measurable rainfall in Abilene since October 31.

A lot could change between now and Saturday, so "stay tuned."

Mild Temperature Ahead

From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...

It was a cold start to the day across most of the Big Country this morning. Brownwood bottomed out at 25, while Abilene dropped to 30. The low in Snyder this morning was 32, while Sweetwater only managed to fall to 39. Everyone will warm up nicely this afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Temperatures should not be as cold tonight with lows in the mid to upper 30s. Some low-lying areas could see lows in the low 30s. Tuesday looks nice and mild with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

For those of you traveling around the Big Country on Wednesday, you should have pleasant conditions. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s with mostly sunny skies continuing. If you are planning on traveling to another part of the United States on Wednesday, the weather is looking pretty good just about everywhere. The exception will be in the Great Lakes, Ohio River Valley, and the northeast. Right now, it looks like rain and snow will be occurring in those areas so there might be some travel delays.

Thanksgiving Day, or as I like to sometimes call it Turkey Day, will be beautiful. Mostly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 70s are expected. It looks like you'll be able to watch football inside or play some outside. If you are already looking forward to Friday and all those big sales at all the stores, you shouldn't have any problems with the weather. You'll probably need a jacket or at least some long sleeves in the morning with temperatures in the mid 40s to start off the day. By the afternoon, highs should be in the low to mid 70s.

We might see some rain this weekend. A cut-off low is expected to form off the coast of California this week and move east towards us. I'm not completely sold on us getting rainfall yet because of our past history with these types of lows. We'll continue to watch the situation and keep you updated through the week. For now though, enjoy the beautiful weather.

Have a magnificent Monday!

Sunday, November 20, 2005

Sunday Evening Update

From meteorologist Jason Myers......

After a chilly start to the day with a low of 32 degrees, temperatures warmed up nicely to 60 degrees thanks to plenty of sunshine. Temperatures tonight will once again drop to a chilly 36 degrees, yet Monday will be a mild day with a high of 68 degrees; again due to high pressure dominating over Texas, giving us mostly sunny skies. The rest of the week will be very mild. Morning lows will start off chilly with lows in the lower 40s Tuesday through Friday. Highs will range in the upper 60s to lower 70s for the rest of the week. Thanksgiving Day will be very nice across Texas with a high of 72 degrees in Abilene, and mostly sunny skies. There is a 20% chance for some rain Saturday and Sunday, during Thanksgiving weekend. We'll have to see if those rain chances become more significant as we get closer to next weekend.

Tropical Depression Gamma is getting ripped apart by upper level winds. Gamma does not look to be a problem for Florida. From the National Hurricane Center:
THE 10 PM EST POSITION...17.2 N... 85.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

Enjoy the mild week!

Saturday, November 19, 2005

Cool Sunday....Mild Work Week

From meteorologist Jason Myers.......

As of 6:00 p.m., clouds are moving back into the Big Country, which should help temperatures from falling to the freezing mark tonight. Today, a cold front moved through West Central Texas, moving through Abilene around 1:30 p.m. However, temperatures were still able to make it up into the lower 60s with the help of sunshine. The gusty winds that have been blowing up plenty of dust today, should start to diminish overnight. The clouds will stay with us on Sunday, giving us partly cloudy skies and a high in the upper 50s. High pressure will really dominate this week, giving the Big Country mostly sunny skies Monday through Thanksgiving Day. Temperatures Monday through Thanksgiving will range in the mid 60s to lower 70s, making for a very comfortable week temperature-wise.

Tropical Storm Gamma looks to weaken as upper level winds are already tearing the storm apart. Winds currently are 45 mph, with the storm moving slowly to the north at 2 mph. Because of the upper level winds, strengthening should not happen, and the storm should be picked up by the strong cold front that is moving across the U.S., and that moved across the Big Country today.

Have a great rest of the weekend, and take the jacket with you in the mornings and for the evenings, even though the daytime temperatures may be a little more milder this week.

Friday, November 18, 2005

Friday 6:45 p.m.

From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...

More average weather on tap for the Big Country over the next several days.

The pattern we are in right now, with a ridge to our West and a trough to our East, sets us up with a Northwest flow in the upper levels of the atmosphere. With that flow, storm systems will pass well to our North and East, but they will bring in shots of cooler air to the Big Country as they pass by.

These shots of cooler, drier air will keep our temperatures from climbing above normal, and will also keep us rain free.

We have not recorded any measurable rainfall at Abilene Regional Airport since October 31st. I know it's still very early, but Abilene has only once recorded an entire month of November with no rainfall, and that was in 1949.

Let's hope we don't tie that record.

Wonderful Weekend On Tap For Us

From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...

We started off with chilly temperatures across the Big Country this morning. Lows were in the mid to upper 30s. A weak cold front will move through the area later this morning and into the early afternoon hours. This front should only cool us down a little bit and shift our winds to the north today. Highs will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

If you are going to a high school playoff football game tonight, you will want to bundle up. Temperatures will likely be in the upper 40s to low 50s around kick-off time. As your heading home, temperatures should be in the low to mid 40s. Overnight lows should be in the mid to upper 30s with winds from the south at 5 to 10 mph.

Another cold front is expected to move through the Big Country tomorrow. Highs should still reach the low to mid 60s. It may be a little breezy at times with winds beginning from the southwest then shifting to the north at 10 to 15 mph. No rain is expected with this front. We will see cooler temperatures on Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 50s.

A quick warm-up is likely on Monday with highs in the mid to upper 60s before another cold front cools us back down on Tuesday. No rain is expected with this front either. Our next chance of rain might come towards the end of next week. It all depends on how a cut-off low off the west coast moves during the upcoming days. We'll keep you updated.

Have a fantastic Friday!

Thursday, November 17, 2005

11:30 p.m. Update

From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...

Not much to add to previous forecasts so I'll keep it simple.

More of the same for the next few days. A weak cold front will arrive Friday morning across the Big Country bringing a light Northerly wind. Afternoon highs should only reach the upper 50s to lower 60s.

I'm not expecting a freeze through the extended forecast as of tonight. Just a few more weak, dry cold fronts.

Our next change in this pattern looks to possible come Thanksgiving or the day after. We could see a cutoff low work its way in the from the West and possibly bring us a chance of rain. I'm not very excited about this right now. Either way, I do expect a stronger cold front by Friday that will at least bring another light freeze to the area. We'll just have to wait and see on those rain chances.

3:30 p.m. Update

From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...

The National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning until 5:00 p.m. for the following counties... (Text in red, all caps, from the National Weather Service)

FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-TAYLOR-

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONSARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

The breezy winds we are experiencing right now will die off after sunset. With that, the fire danger will drop off as well.

Temperatures will fall as well, although I am not expecting a freeze area wide.

I'll have more on our forecast a little bit later.

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