Out on a Limb !!!

From KRBC Chief Meteorologist Randy Turner ....

Do I dare mention rain in the extended forecast? Yes, I dare.

As I wrote in a recent blog, the high pressure ridge and associated dry weather pattern will last through the middle of next week. Nothing has changed as far as that is concerned. We stay dry.

The high moves east and it allows low pressure areas to develop over the southwest U.S. again. As I mentioned before, this does not guarantee rain, but it does represent a pattern change to give us more hope.

For the second day in a row, one of my long range forecast models is painting rain over our area Sunday, January 25th. You can bet I'll be looking at this a couple times a day for updates - and we'll hope, and pray, and keep our fingers crossed this weather guesser is on to something !!

Tonight: Cold again, around 22. Northeast wind 5 to 10.

Friday: Partly cloudy morning, then thinning clouds, a little warmer, 48. South wind 5 to 15, some higher gusts.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, low of 39. Southwest wind 5 to 10.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, high of 63. Another cold front arrives late day.

Saturday Night: Clear and cold, low of 32.

Sunday: Sunny, high of 58.

Sunday Night: Clear, 35.

Martin Luther King Jr. Day Monday: Mostly sunny and 65.

Monday Night: Clear and 37.

Tuesday: Sunny and warm, 72.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warm, 74.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, 70.

Winter Is Back:

Good Morning from Meteorologist Chris Whited...

* Cold front continues to sag southward this morning and will clear the Big Country in the next few hours. Cold air working into the area will bring us a very chilly and wintry day across the KRBC viewing area with many spots holding into the upper
30s for daytime highs. With the northeast winds, it will feel even chillier. Mostly sunny conditions will eventually lead to partly cloudy conditions by afternoon. A cold night tonight with low 20s and I would not be surprised if a few spots dipped into the upper teens but cloud cover will be the main factor on temperatures tonight as clouds are expected to develop and drift in from the south.

* Friday: Still looking cool with highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s with a few clouds in the area. Winds will turn southwesterly and thus we will be a bit warmer as the cold air mass will be somewhat erroded.

* Weekend: Look for a warming trend over the weekend with highs climbing back into the upper 50s and lower 60s across the Big Country. No rain chances over the weekend as dry air remains in place for the area.

* Down The Road: Forecast models this morning are showing a break down in the overall pattern and a nice warming trend for next week with highs into the 70s by the middle part of the week but still no rain chances. We'll have to watch next week for any pattern changes beyond the mentioned. After all, this far out in the forecast models is out in "voodoo" land.

Have a great Thursday!

Cold Thursday, Warmer this Weekend

From KRBC Chief Meteorologist Randy Turner ..

You are probably hearing a lot about the cold air which has plunged much of the eastern part of the nation into the proverbial refrigerator. While we get just a smidge of the cold Thursday, it's not any colder than what we've seen so far.

I spent a lot of time Wednesday afternoon studying the upper level pattern and it's not until the middle of next week that the blocking high pressure ridge situated across the Rocky Mountain west breaks down. What that means for us is a steady stream of dry cold fronts every couple of days. In fact, north and northwesterly will be the prominent wind direction around here through early next week.

But that doesn't mean it's going to be cold all the time either. Thursday
will be our coldest day, slight warm-up Friday, back into the 60's Saturday,
slightly cooler Sunday, then 60's for early next week.

The pattern shifts about Wednesday of next week flattens out the high which allows low pressure systems to drop down from the Pacific Northwest into the Four Corners of the southwest U.S. That still isn't the best place to get rain in here (we need them a little farther south, like northern Mexico) but at least we have better hope of seeing moisture work its way back into our area with a pattern change.

The long range models are trying to paint some rain in our area around January 25th or 26th. As I wrote earlier, it's about the only hope we have at this time.

Wednesday Night: Clear early, then increasing clouds late. Low near 27.
Northeast wind 10 to 20.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, high near 38. Northeast wind 10 to 20.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy and cold, low near 24.

Friday: Partly cloudy, high near 50.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, low near 32.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, highs in the low 60's.

Saturday Night: Clear and 32.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, highs upper 50's.

Monday through Wednesday: Mostly sunny, highs in the middle 60's.

Weather Changes Ahead:

Good Morning from Meteorologist Chris Whited...

* Another chilly start this morning with temperatures sitting into the 20s across the Heartland and 30s across the Big Country as I blog this a little after 5AM. A very pleasant day is ahead for the area with ample sunshine and highs in the lower
60s with a southerly wind.

* A cold front will move across the Big Country late this evening and bring in much colder weather for tonight and especially the next few days. Highs on Thursday will struggle to remain in the lower 40s. I would not be surprised if some spots stay in the upper 30s. Cloudy intervals will persist as well for the area. The same deal is in store for Friday, although it will be a bit warmer into the middle and upper 40s.

* Weekend: We will start a slight warming trend over the weekend with highs climbing in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Dry air remains in place so no rain chances for the weekend, not to mention the entire seven day forecast period.

Enjoy your Wednesday...

Nice Wednesday, Then Much Colder

From KRBC Chief Meteorologist Randy Turner ...

Thanks for checking out my blog. The temperature roller coaster continues. Wednesday will be warm, around 60, but Thursday is drastically different, only around 38 for your high. Plus, north wind will keep wind chills in the 20's and 30's during the day Thursday, so plan accordingly.

No moisture is expected with the front but we should see more clouds around Thursday. Those clouds help keep us in the 20's Thursday night instead of dropping even colder.

I think by Friday we will see temperatures climb back to the 40's, the 50's by Saturday and the 60's by the first of next week.

Cool Day Ahead:

Good Morning from Meteorologist Chris Whited...

* A chilly start this morning with temperatures at and below freezing thanks to the cold front that moved across the Big Country late yesterday afternoon. It will be about 10-15 degrees cooler today with highs only in upper 40s and lower
50s across the area.

* An even stronger cold front will move across the area late Wednesday and bring very cold air into the area by Thursday. Looks as though the really cold Arctic air mass will pass well away from us across the Ohio Valley and the Deep South. Another front is due over the weekend but based on the data this morning, doesn't look like it will cool down too much with this front.

* Dry pattern will persist the next seven days in the forecast with no rain chances showing up in the forecast. Fire danger will remain elevated or high with the dry air in place and breezy conditions ahead of the fronts.

Have a great Tuesday...

Here Comes the Cold

From KRBC Chief Meteorologist Randy Turner ...

I guess it comes as no surprise that some cold temperatures are headed our way since the time between now and mid February is typically our coldest weather of the year.

I'm still forecast three fronts, one moving through Abilene as of 4:00pm today (Monday). This front will drop temperatures to the middle 20's by Tuesday morning, so be ready. Also, winds Monday night into Tuesday morning from the north at 15 to 25 will mean wind chills in the teens to begin your day Tuesday.

Temperatures warm close to 50 Tuesday and closer to 60 by Wednesday but (there's always a but in there somewhere) - the strongest cold front of the week arrives Wednesday night. For Thursday, I'm going with the upper 30's as there is still some uncertainty just how much of a glancing blow we'll get from the Arctic outbreak which will engulf much of the eastern half of the nation and the deep south. We should also have more clouds around Thursday into Friday in the cold air. You'll definitely want to plan on bundling up Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures should warm a little for the upcoming weekend.

Numbers
Monday night - Low of 24. North wind 15 to 25. Wind chills in the teens.
Tuesday: Around 50 - lighter winds - chill in the air all day.
Tuesday night: Near 30, clear.
Wednesday: Sunny, upper 50's.
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, mid to upper 20's.
Thursday: Partly cloudy, upper 30's.

Parade of Cold Fronts This Week:

Good Morning from Meteorologist Chris Whited...

* A cold front will move across the Big Country this afternoon and bring a shot of cooler air to start the week with highs dropping from the 60s into the 50s the next few days. An even stronger cold front will move across the area later this week and bring very cold air into the area by Thursday. Looks as though the really cold Arctic airmass will pass well away from us across the Ohio Valley and the Deep South. It will still be a mild start for the first half of the week and cooling down by late week. (See the 7-Day Forecast on the main KRBC Weather Page)

* Dry pattern will persist the next seven days in the forecast with no rain chances showing up in the forecast. Fire danger will remain elevated or high with the dry air in place and breezy conditions ahead of the fronts.

* Front timing: The first front arrives this afternoon with the second Arctic front arriving late Wednesday night and early Thursday. The third front should arrive in the Big Country on Saturday.

Have a great Monday...

Three Cold Fronts This Week

From KRBC Chief Meteorologist Randy Turner .....

Thanks for checking out the KRBC weather blog. I'm tracking three cold fronts, the first of which arrives late Monday afternoon or early evening here in Abilene, without rain, of course.

The second front, the strongest of the three, arrives Wednesday night and is actually a glancing blow of some very frigid Arctic air which will grip much of the nation east of the Mississippi River late this week. No moisture is expected with this front either.

The third front, not a very strong one, arrives Saturday afternoon or night, again, without moisture.

Temperatures will run close to if not slightly above normal for this time of year Monday through Wednesday. They will be below normal Thursday and Friday, then near normal again for the upcoming weekend.

As for the wind - it will become gusty Monday afternoon and remain gusty Monday night as the cold front blows through. The wind becomes gusty again Wednesday in advance of the next front and will remain gusty Wednesday night into Thursday, out of the northeast.

I wished I had better news concerning rain, or any kind of moisture, but I simply don't at this time.

Sunday Night: Clear and cold, low near 30. Southwest wind 5 to 10.

Monday: Partly cloudy and breezy, high near 62, southwest wind 10 to 20 shifting northerly late day and gusty.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny and cool, high near 55. North wind 10 to 15.

Tuesday Night: Clear, low in the low 30's.

Wednesday: Sunny and 60.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, windy and cold, high 45.

Is Arctic Air on the Way?

From KRBC Chief Meteorologist Randy Turner ...

There is the possibility of a cold Arctic outbreak dropping into the Big Country in about a week, roughly Thursday of next week. It is still too early to say with any certainty how cold it could get, or if moisture will be associated, but I wanted to give you a heads-up that we're following this developing situation and will post updates here and through our webcasts and graphics here on Bigcountryhomepage.com.

Thanks for reading,

Randy

Warm, Then Cold - Winter Doldrums

From KRBC Chief Meteorologist Randy Turner ....

Granted, we need rain, and lots of it would help right now, right this moment. Unfortunately, it isn't in the forecast. I had hoped that, perhaps early next week, we could luck into a shower, but that is doubtful.

That being said, the nice, warm, sunny skies were wonderful today and will be again on Friday. Changes loom with the arrival of another cold front Friday night, sunset or a little after. It will drop temperatures 25 to 30 degrees by Saturday.

Thursday Night: Clear and cool, 44. West wind 5 to 10.
Friday: Sunny, breezy and warm. High 77. West wind 10 to 20 with gusts.
Friday Night: Cold front, partly cloudy, low of 37. North wind 20 to 30.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and cold, high near 50. North wind 15 to 25.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear and 28.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, near 60.
Monday: Mostly sunny, near 58.

Feels Like Spring Out There !!

From KRBC Chief Meteorologist Randy Turner ...

The normal high temperature for this time of year in Abilene is 55. Thursday and Friday, afternoon highs will be 15 to 20 degrees above normal. But by Saturday, high temperatures will be about 10 degrees below normal.

The parade of cold fronts continues with one due late Friday afternoon or Friday evening then another one during the day next Tuesday.

The chance for rain doesn't look good. I'm keeping a slight mention of rain in the forecast next Tuesday but have my doubts.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy to mostly clear, low near 38. West wind 5 to 10.

Thursdsay: Mostly sunny and 69.

Friday: Mostly sunny and 75. Gusty wind, high fire danger.

Saturday: Mostly sunny and much colder, high 48, gusty north wind, high fire danger.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, mid to upper 50's.

Warmer Days Ahead

From KRBC Chief Meteorologist Randy Turner ...

Good evening, thanks for checking out my blog. Temperatures warmed into the middle 50's in the Abilene area Tuesday afternoon, but in the low 60's in the Brownwood area.

Expect middle 60's Wednesday, upper 60's Thursday, middle 70's Friday, then a sudden change to cold weather this weekend.

How cold? I'm forecasting 48 Saturday and 50 Sunday. Wind will be from the north and gusty Saturday so expect wind chills in the 30's Saturday.

It also looks like another upper level low will eventually form around the Baja of California, pretty close to where the last one did which brought us the rain and ice this week. Given the position of the low, I've added a 20% chance for rain to the forecast for Monday and Tuesday of next week.

Don't forget that our weather graphics are available here on the website and are updated twice daily during the week and on the weekend.

Randy

Quiet Weather Today:

Good Morning from Meteorologist Chris Whited...

* What a difference 24 hours can make as weather is quiet this morning across the area. We are waking up to mostly cloudy conditons, especially over the eastern counties. The clouds will thin up some today and the winds will pick up from the northwest with highs warming into the middle 50s today. Another cold night for us with lows in the lower 30s and even warmer tomorrow with highs in the middle 60s.


* It will remain warm through the end of the week until the next cold front arrives on Friday night and will cool us down for the weekend. There are no rain chances for the area in the the next 7 days.

- Enjoy your Tuesday...

Icy Episode Comes to an End

From the KRBC Weather Lab and Chief Meteorologist Randy Turner ...

First, a note of thanks to the emergency personnel - police, fire, ems, first responders, many who did an excellent job Monday morning responding to the dozens of wrecks caused by the ice and wet weather. Ladies and gentlemen, your work is deeply appreciated.

The system which brought us at least a little precipitation Monday morning will move east of our area Monday night into Tuesday, taking the chance for rain or frozen precipitation with it. We could still see a few showers Monday afternoon and night, but the heaviest is likely over.

Roads should be in pretty good shape Monday night and Tuesday morning but you'll certainly want to slow down as you approach and cross bridges and overpasses as slick spots will likely remain. It would be a good idea to go ahead and plan to leave a little early as you go to work and school Tuesday to allow plenty of travel time.

Three cold fronts are expected this week. The first on Tuesday brings gusty northwest wind, another late Friday and very windy on Friday, then a third next Monday when it will be very windy once again.

It appears we are in for dry weather again through the next seven days.

Monday Night: Cloudy with a 20% chance for light rain which could become freezing rain. Watch for ice on roadways, especially bridges and overpasses. Low near 32. Southwest wind 5 to 10 could actually warm the temperature during the overnight.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, high of 55. Northwest wind 10 to 20.

Tuesday Night: Clear and cold, low of 29.

Wednesday: Sunny and mild, mid 60's.

Wednesday Night: Clear and cold, mid 30's.

Thursday: Sunny and warm, upper 60's.

Friday: Windy, warm, near 70 with a cold front arriving late day.

Saturday: Sunny, cool and windy, high of 50. Wind chills in the 40's.

Sunday: Sunny and cool, high in the low 60's.

Monday: Windy, another cold front, middle 50', mostly sunny.

Winter Weather & Freezing Rain Advisory:

* The National Weather Service in San Angelo has issued a Winter Weather Advisory until 6PM this evening for Taylor, Nolan, Callahan, Jones, Fisher, Shackelford, Haskell and Throckmorton County. A Freezing Rain Advisory has been issued for Coke, Runnels, Coleman, and Brown County until 6PM.

* The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a Freezing Rain Advisory until 6PM for Eastland, Stephens, Comanche and Mills County.

* The National Weather Service in Lubbock has issued a Winter Weather Advisory until 12PM for Stonewall, King and Kent County.

* Ice accumulations of 0.10" (.20" in some isolated areas) are possible today across the Big Country, Heartland and Northern Concho Valley elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses.

* Stay tuned to KRBC and BigCountryHomepage.Com for the latest weather information.

KRBC Weather Forecast:

Today:
Periods of Freezing Rain and Sleet
Cloudy & Cold
High: 30-34°
Wind: NW 5-10
Precipitation Chance: 70%

Tonight:
Light Freezing Rain/Sleet Ending Early
Mostly Cloudy & Cold
Lows: 29-32°
Wind: SW 5-10
Precipitation Chance: 20%

Winter Storm Watch in Effect

From KRBC Chief Meteorologist Randy Turner ...

Ingredients were coming together Sunday night for an ice storm to cause problems Monday across the KRBC viewing area.

A Winter Storm Watch is in effect through the day Monday meaning ice could cause dangerous travel conditions.

The first shower popped up on Triple Doppler radar in Coleman County around 7:00pm Sunday but more widespread rain, freezing rain and sleet is expected to develop in our area as an upper level low approaches from the west. The amounts may be heavy leading to significant icing, but it'll all melt away by Tuesday as temperatures warm considerably.

Here is the National Weather Service statement:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH FOR THE BIG COUNTRY...CONCHO VALLEY...ANDHEARTLAND...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAYAFTERNOON.

RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARDFROM THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND...INTO THE BIG COUNTRY MONDAYMORNING.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THELATEST FORECASTS.

Watching For Winter Weather Late Sunday/Early Monday:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
318 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2009

FISHER-NOLAN-COKE-RUNNELS-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-
JONES-SHACKELFORD- TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY
AND NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...

AFTER A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
BEFORE TRACKING TOWARD TEXAS ON MONDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY...AND INTO THE 30S FARTHER SOUTH. THE APPROACH OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND...LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. DURING THAT SAME TIME PERIOD...SOME
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM STERLING CITY TO ROBERT LEE TO CROSS PLAINS. A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MAY OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN BIG
COUNTRY. SOME THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY.

AT THIS TIME...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY AND
BIG COUNTRY WHEN THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS WILL BE A
CRITICAL FACTOR IN HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION CAN OCCUR ACROSS THAT
AREA...WHERE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR WINTER
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR.

PEOPLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...ESPECIALLY THE BIG COUNTRY
AND CONCHO VALLEY...ARE ENCOURAGED TO CHECK THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND WEATHER INFORMATION...ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

Changes This Weekend:

Good Morning from Meteorologist Chris Whited...

* Look for very warm weather across the Big Country for today and Saturday as strong southwesterly winds will blow across the area as a trough deepens to our west. Wildfire threat will be elevated over the weekend as well.

* A strong cold front will move across the area early Sunday morning and bring much cooler air into the area for Sunday and Monday. An upper level low pressure center will track in behind the front late Sunday and Monday morning and will squeeze out some light precipitation. Forecast models indicate temperatures will be at or just below freezing Monday morning. It looks as if we could see some light freezing rain or sleet early, followed by just a cold rain during the day on Monday. Of course stay tuned to KRBC over the weekend for all updates on the forecast for early next week.

* Have a great weekend...

Warm Through Saturday, Colder Sunday

From KRBC Chief Meteorologist Randy Turner ....

The new year began as the old one ended, dry. Any hopes for moisture rest during an 18-24 hour period beginning Sunday night and ending Monday afternoon.

Temperatures will remain very warm through Saturday. Sunday, an upper level low pressure trof will approach from the west. That pumps moisture in from the Pacific and hopefully can draw some low level moisture from the Gulf. A strong cold front blows in Saturday night and that helps set the stage for the possibility of showers or sleet.

Forecast models are hinting at light precipitation over our area, hit and miss, but they also have the air from two to five thousand feet above ground below freezing. If that's the case, the rain could freeze and become sleet and most likely stay frozen all the way to the ground. So, the forecast has the potential for light showers, possibly mixed with sleet.

At this time, it appears the near-surface temperature will be near 32 Sunday night with highs reaching the low 40's Monday which means any slick stuff would be short lived. I'll monitor this potential for moisture and have updates here on this page. This is our only shot at moisture through the next seven days.

Thursday Night: Clear and cold, low near 35. West wind 5 to 10.
Friday: Mostly sunny with middle 70's. Southwest wind 10 to 15.
Friday Night: Mostly clear and mild, low 50's. Wind increasing from the southwest.
Saturday: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy and windy with an elevated wildfire danger. High near 75. Southwest wind 15 to 25.
Saturday Night: Increasing cloudiness with a low of 37 as a cold front arrives.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy and much colder, high in the low to mid 40's. North wind 10 to 20.
Sunday Night: Cloudy, low near 32 with a 20% chance for showers perhaps mixed with sleet.
Monday: Mostly cloudy and chilly, high in the low 40's with a slight chance for light showers.
Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, middle 30's.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy, near 60.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, in the low 60's.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, in the middle 60's.