From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off a bit on the mild side this morning with temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. Clouds have begun to build back into the area, so we'll start off with mostly cloudy skies this morning. By this afternoon, we should have enough sunshine to call it partly cloudy. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s. Windy conditions make their return today. Winds are expected to be from the south-southeast at 15 to 25 mph. There is an elevated fire danger for everyone. The only county under a Red Flag Warning this afternoon is Knox. We all need to be careful and follow the necessary precautions in order to prevent fires from occurring.
Tomorrow looks to be partly cloudy with highs in the mid 70s. A cold front is expected to arrive by the late afternoon hours. No rain is expected with the frontal passage.
There is a chance for rain beginning on Friday and lasting through Sunday. The are a couple of reasons why we could see the rain. First, a trough, or dip in the jetstream will set up to our west during this time period. Upper level disturbances are expected to move along the trough and into our area. They will lift any moisture we have in place and cause showers and thunderstorms. The other reason for the chance of rain is a stalled cold front to the south. Gulf of Mexico moisture will override the front and into the Lone Star State. This will end up causing some rain to develop. I have increased the rain chances a little bit from yesterday. They now stand at 30% to 50% with the best chance happening on Saturday. Some of these storms could be severe, so stay tuned and we'll see how things pan out.
Have a wonderful Wednesday!
Wednesday, March 15, 2006
Tuesday, March 14, 2006
Tuesday Afternoon Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
After a light frost across the area this morning, temperatures rebounded nicely into the middle to upper 60s areawide.
Get ready for warmer and unfortunately windier weather Wednesday. As an upper level system passes to our North, winds will increase to 15 to 20 miles per hour. The system will pull a cold front through our area Thursday. That front will cool temperatures down into the lower 60s Friday.
The system will destablize the atmosphere enough for a 20% chance of thunderstorms Friday. Saturday will bring us our best chance for showers and thunderstorms as the best upper level dynamics arrive into the area. Right now I'm forecasting a 40 to 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms for Saturday. There is a chance we could see some of these storms reach severe levels, but we will have to wait and see exactly how things pan out. For now, stay tuned...
After a light frost across the area this morning, temperatures rebounded nicely into the middle to upper 60s areawide.
Get ready for warmer and unfortunately windier weather Wednesday. As an upper level system passes to our North, winds will increase to 15 to 20 miles per hour. The system will pull a cold front through our area Thursday. That front will cool temperatures down into the lower 60s Friday.
The system will destablize the atmosphere enough for a 20% chance of thunderstorms Friday. Saturday will bring us our best chance for showers and thunderstorms as the best upper level dynamics arrive into the area. Right now I'm forecasting a 40 to 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms for Saturday. There is a chance we could see some of these storms reach severe levels, but we will have to wait and see exactly how things pan out. For now, stay tuned...
Tuesday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
With clear skies, calm winds, and a dry airmass, we had optimal radiational cooling conditions last night. Temperatures bottomed out this morning in the low to mid 30s. We will warm up nicely this afternoon into the upper 60s to low 70s for highs. This is slightly warmer than yesterday.
The warming trend will continue tomorrow with highs reaching the low to mid 70s. Windy conditions look to return here in the Big Country thanks to a low pressure system that will be to the north of us. Winds will be from the south at 15 to 25 mph. The fire danger is expected to be high tomorrow. No Fire Weather Watches or Red Flag Warnings have been issued yet. We still need to be careful and follow all the necessary precautions whether there are watches and warnings or not.
A cold front looks to arrive late on Thursday causing temperatures to cool back down for the last three days of the week. There are some chances for showers and thunderstorms during that time too. The trough I wrote about yesterday should still set up to our west for Friday through Sunday. Rain chances are about 20 to 40 percent with the best shot at precipitation being on Saturday. Hopefully, these chances will increase as the end of the work week approaches. We'll just have to wait and see.
Have a terrific Tuesday!
With clear skies, calm winds, and a dry airmass, we had optimal radiational cooling conditions last night. Temperatures bottomed out this morning in the low to mid 30s. We will warm up nicely this afternoon into the upper 60s to low 70s for highs. This is slightly warmer than yesterday.
The warming trend will continue tomorrow with highs reaching the low to mid 70s. Windy conditions look to return here in the Big Country thanks to a low pressure system that will be to the north of us. Winds will be from the south at 15 to 25 mph. The fire danger is expected to be high tomorrow. No Fire Weather Watches or Red Flag Warnings have been issued yet. We still need to be careful and follow all the necessary precautions whether there are watches and warnings or not.
A cold front looks to arrive late on Thursday causing temperatures to cool back down for the last three days of the week. There are some chances for showers and thunderstorms during that time too. The trough I wrote about yesterday should still set up to our west for Friday through Sunday. Rain chances are about 20 to 40 percent with the best shot at precipitation being on Saturday. Hopefully, these chances will increase as the end of the work week approaches. We'll just have to wait and see.
Have a terrific Tuesday!
Monday, March 13, 2006
Freeze Warning Tonight
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
A cool day today across the area compared to previous afternoons. Highs today only climbed into the middle to upper 60s across the area.
For tonight, the National Weather Service has issued a freeze warning for most of the Big Country and KRBC viewing area. The following is from the National Weather Service in San Angelo, TX:
...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST TUESDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD FREEZE WILL BE ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY...NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S. A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
I expect overnight lows across most of the area to only bottom out at 31 or 32, low lying areas though will likely fall into the middle to upper 20s.
By Tuesday afternoon temperatures will climb back to near or at 70 degrees.
Wednesday will be another windy day, fire weather advisories will likely be issued, with highs climbing into the lower to middle 70s.
Another cold front passes through the area early Thursday. No freezes expected with this front, but it will set the stage for rain chances Friday through Sunday. Right now I'm calling for a 20% chance of thunderstorms Friday, but Saturday about a 40% chance of storms.
By Sunday into Monday, rain chances come to an end and warmer temperatures will prevail.
Please remember to keep the folks in the Midwest and now into the the Ohio River Valley and Southeast United States in your thoughts as they continue to go through one of the worst severe weather outbreaks ever recorded in March.
A cool day today across the area compared to previous afternoons. Highs today only climbed into the middle to upper 60s across the area.
For tonight, the National Weather Service has issued a freeze warning for most of the Big Country and KRBC viewing area. The following is from the National Weather Service in San Angelo, TX:
...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST TUESDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD FREEZE WILL BE ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY...NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S. A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
I expect overnight lows across most of the area to only bottom out at 31 or 32, low lying areas though will likely fall into the middle to upper 20s.
By Tuesday afternoon temperatures will climb back to near or at 70 degrees.
Wednesday will be another windy day, fire weather advisories will likely be issued, with highs climbing into the lower to middle 70s.
Another cold front passes through the area early Thursday. No freezes expected with this front, but it will set the stage for rain chances Friday through Sunday. Right now I'm calling for a 20% chance of thunderstorms Friday, but Saturday about a 40% chance of storms.
By Sunday into Monday, rain chances come to an end and warmer temperatures will prevail.
Please remember to keep the folks in the Midwest and now into the the Ohio River Valley and Southeast United States in your thoughts as they continue to go through one of the worst severe weather outbreaks ever recorded in March.
Monday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
A cold front moved through the area last night, so it will be much cooler today than it was over the weekend. Highs will only reach the mid to upper 60s, which is what we average for this time of year. Breezy conditions will remain with winds from the northwest at 10 to 20 mph. The fire danger remains high so please continue to be careful.
Tuesday through Thursday look to be a bit on the mild side with highs in the low to mid 70s. Windy conditions look possible on Wednesday. A cold front should arrive on Thursday. This will send temperatures back down into the 60s for highs the rest of the week.
No rain is expected with the cold front on Thursday, but the possiblity of showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast for Friday through Sunday. Right now, those rain chances are about 20 to 30 percent with Saturday looking to be the best day for some rain. The reason we could see some precipitation is thanks to a trough that will set up to our west by the end of the week. The big question is whether or not we will have enough moisture in place. The cold front on Thursday will likely dry us out a little bit, but it looks like moisture from the Gulf of Mexico may override the front and move into the area starting Friday. We'll need to keep our fingers crossed that we see the rain since we are approaching a one inch deficit for the year so far.
Have a magnificent Monday!
A cold front moved through the area last night, so it will be much cooler today than it was over the weekend. Highs will only reach the mid to upper 60s, which is what we average for this time of year. Breezy conditions will remain with winds from the northwest at 10 to 20 mph. The fire danger remains high so please continue to be careful.
Tuesday through Thursday look to be a bit on the mild side with highs in the low to mid 70s. Windy conditions look possible on Wednesday. A cold front should arrive on Thursday. This will send temperatures back down into the 60s for highs the rest of the week.
No rain is expected with the cold front on Thursday, but the possiblity of showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast for Friday through Sunday. Right now, those rain chances are about 20 to 30 percent with Saturday looking to be the best day for some rain. The reason we could see some precipitation is thanks to a trough that will set up to our west by the end of the week. The big question is whether or not we will have enough moisture in place. The cold front on Thursday will likely dry us out a little bit, but it looks like moisture from the Gulf of Mexico may override the front and move into the area starting Friday. We'll need to keep our fingers crossed that we see the rain since we are approaching a one inch deficit for the year so far.
Have a magnificent Monday!
Friday, March 10, 2006
Friday Afternoon Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
Alright, this is starting to get really tough here. I have to admit I am just loving this warmer weather, the tough part is, we REALLY, DESPERATELY, need some rain. I guess if we can't get some rain, we might as well keep enjoying this pleasantly warm weather.
The other problem, winds... Winds will again pick back up tomorrow to 10 to 25 miles per hour across the area. Fire Weather Watches will be likely for Saturday, but definate for Sunday. Sunday afternoon winds will likely run 20 to 30 miles per hour again as another upper level system approaches. Unfortunately, this system will pass by dry.
Behind the system Monday, cooler air will rule the area. Afternoon highs Monday will only climb into the middle 60s. Winds will remain breezy out of the North-Northwest keeps things feeling a little cooler than that.
We quickly warm back to near 70 by Tuesday under sunny skies. Wednesday will be a bit warmer, back into the lower 70s but with a few more clouds around.
Thursday and Friday MAY hold our next best chance for rain. One long range model is hinting at the chance for thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. But, that is 6-7 days out, and my confidence is fairly low at this point. Let's just keep our fingers crossed that things could pan out.
Please remember to use extreme caution as fire danger will remain high through the extended forecast.
Alright, this is starting to get really tough here. I have to admit I am just loving this warmer weather, the tough part is, we REALLY, DESPERATELY, need some rain. I guess if we can't get some rain, we might as well keep enjoying this pleasantly warm weather.
The other problem, winds... Winds will again pick back up tomorrow to 10 to 25 miles per hour across the area. Fire Weather Watches will be likely for Saturday, but definate for Sunday. Sunday afternoon winds will likely run 20 to 30 miles per hour again as another upper level system approaches. Unfortunately, this system will pass by dry.
Behind the system Monday, cooler air will rule the area. Afternoon highs Monday will only climb into the middle 60s. Winds will remain breezy out of the North-Northwest keeps things feeling a little cooler than that.
We quickly warm back to near 70 by Tuesday under sunny skies. Wednesday will be a bit warmer, back into the lower 70s but with a few more clouds around.
Thursday and Friday MAY hold our next best chance for rain. One long range model is hinting at the chance for thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. But, that is 6-7 days out, and my confidence is fairly low at this point. Let's just keep our fingers crossed that things could pan out.
Please remember to use extreme caution as fire danger will remain high through the extended forecast.
Friday Afternoon Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
Alright, this is starting to get really tough here. I have to admit I am just loving this warmer weather, the tough part is, we REALLY, DESPERATELY, need some rain. I guess if we can't get some rain, we might as well keep enjoying this pleasantly warm weather.
The other problem, winds... Winds will again pick back up tomorrow to 10 to 25 miles per hour across the area. Fire Weather Watches will be likely for Saturday, but definate for Sunday. Sunday afternoon winds will likely run 20 to 30 miles per hour again as another upper level system approaches. Unfortunately, this system will pass by dry.
Behind the system Monday, cooler air will rule the area. Afternoon highs Monday will only climb into the middle 60s. Winds will remain breezy out of the North-Northwest keeps things feeling a little cooler than that.
We quickly warm back to near 70 by Tuesday under sunny skies. Wednesday will be a bit warmer, back into the lower 70s but with a few more clouds around.
Thursday and Friday MAY hold our next best chance for rain. One long range model is hinting at the chance for thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. But, that is 6-7 days out, and my confidence is fairly low at this point. Let's just keep our fingers crossed that things could pan out.
Please remember to use extreme caution as fire danger will remain high through the extended forecast.
Alright, this is starting to get really tough here. I have to admit I am just loving this warmer weather, the tough part is, we REALLY, DESPERATELY, need some rain. I guess if we can't get some rain, we might as well keep enjoying this pleasantly warm weather.
The other problem, winds... Winds will again pick back up tomorrow to 10 to 25 miles per hour across the area. Fire Weather Watches will be likely for Saturday, but definate for Sunday. Sunday afternoon winds will likely run 20 to 30 miles per hour again as another upper level system approaches. Unfortunately, this system will pass by dry.
Behind the system Monday, cooler air will rule the area. Afternoon highs Monday will only climb into the middle 60s. Winds will remain breezy out of the North-Northwest keeps things feeling a little cooler than that.
We quickly warm back to near 70 by Tuesday under sunny skies. Wednesday will be a bit warmer, back into the lower 70s but with a few more clouds around.
Thursday and Friday MAY hold our next best chance for rain. One long range model is hinting at the chance for thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. But, that is 6-7 days out, and my confidence is fairly low at this point. Let's just keep our fingers crossed that things could pan out.
Please remember to use extreme caution as fire danger will remain high through the extended forecast.
Friday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We have had a break from the winds during the overnight hours and into early this morning. Unfortunately, windy conditions are expected to return by this afternoon. Winds will be from the south-southwest at 15 to 25 mph. Red Flag Warnings are in effect again today for just about the entire area. Please continue to be careful and follow all the necessary precautions to help prevent fires.
Temperatures look to remain warm through the weekend. Highs should make it into the upper 70s to low 80s. Skies will likely be partly cloudy.
A cold front is expected to arrive late Sunday into early Monday. It doesn't look like we will see any rain, but temperatures will cool down closer to average for this time of year. Highs on Monday and Tuesday should be in the mid 60s.
It looks like we will probably remain dry for at least the next seven days. Some computer models are hinting at a slight chance of rain on Thursday, but I am not that confident in that chance as of right now. A lot can happen between now and then and I would like to see some consistent model runs before I buy into the rain chance. We'll keep an eye on this and let you know if the chance increases or decreases.
Have a fantastic Friday!
We have had a break from the winds during the overnight hours and into early this morning. Unfortunately, windy conditions are expected to return by this afternoon. Winds will be from the south-southwest at 15 to 25 mph. Red Flag Warnings are in effect again today for just about the entire area. Please continue to be careful and follow all the necessary precautions to help prevent fires.
Temperatures look to remain warm through the weekend. Highs should make it into the upper 70s to low 80s. Skies will likely be partly cloudy.
A cold front is expected to arrive late Sunday into early Monday. It doesn't look like we will see any rain, but temperatures will cool down closer to average for this time of year. Highs on Monday and Tuesday should be in the mid 60s.
It looks like we will probably remain dry for at least the next seven days. Some computer models are hinting at a slight chance of rain on Thursday, but I am not that confident in that chance as of right now. A lot can happen between now and then and I would like to see some consistent model runs before I buy into the rain chance. We'll keep an eye on this and let you know if the chance increases or decreases.
Have a fantastic Friday!
Thursday, March 09, 2006
Thursday Afternoon Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
After dealing with a bit of severe weather last night, the skies have cleared for the most part and the winds have taken over. Strong winds across the area today kicked up dirt and dust.
Overnight winds will relax a bit, down to 10 to 15 miles per hour. By tomorrow they pick right back up, this time out of the Southwest from 15 to 30 miles per hour sustained. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for all of our counties except Stonewall. Stonewall county is under a Fire Weather Watch.
Afternoon highs will quickly climb back into the upper 70s to lower 80s Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Another upper level system will approach from the West this weekend keeping winds breezy Sunday afternoon. This system will pass through dry, but will pull another cold front through the area Sunday night.
This cold front will knock afternoon highs down to near normal for the first part of next week. Highs Monday and Tuesday will only reach the middle to upper 60s. Then by mid-week we quickly warm back into the middle 70s to lower 80s.
After dealing with a bit of severe weather last night, the skies have cleared for the most part and the winds have taken over. Strong winds across the area today kicked up dirt and dust.
Overnight winds will relax a bit, down to 10 to 15 miles per hour. By tomorrow they pick right back up, this time out of the Southwest from 15 to 30 miles per hour sustained. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for all of our counties except Stonewall. Stonewall county is under a Fire Weather Watch.
Afternoon highs will quickly climb back into the upper 70s to lower 80s Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Another upper level system will approach from the West this weekend keeping winds breezy Sunday afternoon. This system will pass through dry, but will pull another cold front through the area Sunday night.
This cold front will knock afternoon highs down to near normal for the first part of next week. Highs Monday and Tuesday will only reach the middle to upper 60s. Then by mid-week we quickly warm back into the middle 70s to lower 80s.
Thursday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
The few showers and thunderstorms that we did see during the overnight hours came to end early this morning. We had one thunderstorm reach severe limits in Throckmorton county last night. Quarter to golf ball size hail was reported.
A cold front moved through overnight as well. Cooler and drier air has filtered in behind it. We should see plenty of sunshine, but highs will only make it into the upper 60s to low 70s.
Windy conditions will be the main story not only today, but tomorrow too. West winds of 20 to 30 mph are expected today. A Wind Advisory is in effect for most of the area due to the strong winds which could gust as high as 40 mph during the day. Southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph are likely tomorrow. With relative humidity values expected to fall below 20% and dry conditions remaining, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for almost the entire area today. A Fire Weather Watch has already been issued for most of the Big Country for Friday. We need to continue to be careful with the high fire danger for the next couple of days. Please follow all the necessary precautions in order to prevent fires. This includes things like not throwing cigarette butts out of the window and burning trash. You also want to be very careful with welding torches.
It looks like temperatures will remain well above average through the weekend. Our average high this time of year is in the upper 60s. Highs for Friday through Sunday should mainly be in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Changes come late Sunday night into early Monday in the form of another cold front. Unfortunately, no rain is expected with the frontal passage. Temperatures however will return closer to average for the late winter season.
Have a terrific Thursday!
The few showers and thunderstorms that we did see during the overnight hours came to end early this morning. We had one thunderstorm reach severe limits in Throckmorton county last night. Quarter to golf ball size hail was reported.
A cold front moved through overnight as well. Cooler and drier air has filtered in behind it. We should see plenty of sunshine, but highs will only make it into the upper 60s to low 70s.
Windy conditions will be the main story not only today, but tomorrow too. West winds of 20 to 30 mph are expected today. A Wind Advisory is in effect for most of the area due to the strong winds which could gust as high as 40 mph during the day. Southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph are likely tomorrow. With relative humidity values expected to fall below 20% and dry conditions remaining, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for almost the entire area today. A Fire Weather Watch has already been issued for most of the Big Country for Friday. We need to continue to be careful with the high fire danger for the next couple of days. Please follow all the necessary precautions in order to prevent fires. This includes things like not throwing cigarette butts out of the window and burning trash. You also want to be very careful with welding torches.
It looks like temperatures will remain well above average through the weekend. Our average high this time of year is in the upper 60s. Highs for Friday through Sunday should mainly be in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Changes come late Sunday night into early Monday in the form of another cold front. Unfortunately, no rain is expected with the frontal passage. Temperatures however will return closer to average for the late winter season.
Have a terrific Thursday!
Wednesday, March 08, 2006
Thunderstorms Remain Possible
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
The dryline which commonly brings us severe weather during the Spring months fired off a couple of thunderstorms this afternoon. As for tonight, the dryline coupled with an upper-level disturbance will likely cause a few more thunderstorms.
Isolated severe storms will be possible with the best chance of severe weather just East of the Big Country.
After tonight, our rain chances look to be zero to none through the extended forecast.
A cold front will push through by morning bring strong, gusty West-Northwest winds for Thursday. Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are in effect for the entire KRBC viewing area.
Friday through Sunday will bring sunny skies and high temperatures climbing back to near 80. Sunday could be another fire weather concern day as another upper-level system approaches the area.
That system will pull through a stronger shot of cooler air for Monday through Wednesday. Overnight lows will drop back down into the middle 30s for Tuesday morning.
The dryline which commonly brings us severe weather during the Spring months fired off a couple of thunderstorms this afternoon. As for tonight, the dryline coupled with an upper-level disturbance will likely cause a few more thunderstorms.
Isolated severe storms will be possible with the best chance of severe weather just East of the Big Country.
After tonight, our rain chances look to be zero to none through the extended forecast.
A cold front will push through by morning bring strong, gusty West-Northwest winds for Thursday. Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are in effect for the entire KRBC viewing area.
Friday through Sunday will bring sunny skies and high temperatures climbing back to near 80. Sunday could be another fire weather concern day as another upper-level system approaches the area.
That system will pull through a stronger shot of cooler air for Monday through Wednesday. Overnight lows will drop back down into the middle 30s for Tuesday morning.
Thunderstorms Possible Today
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off mild this morning with temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s. It looks like it will be another warm afternoon with highs in the low to mid 80s. Windy conditions should continue with winds from the south-southwest at 15 to 25 mph. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening thanks to the dryline that will move through the Big Country. Some of these storms could be severe with the main threats being large hail and damaging winds. Tornadoes do not look likely.
The chance for showers and thunderstorms continues tonight as a cold front gets pushed through the area by an upper level trough. Right now, the chance for rain is about 20% to 30%. The best chance of rain looks to be in the central and eastern portions of the viewing area. We'll keep an eye on things here in the weather center and let you know if anything becomes severe today or tonight.
Tomorrow should be cooler, but still mild. Highs will be in the low 70s. Windy conditions are expected with winds from the west-northwest at 20 to 30 mph. Low relative humidity values are likely, so a Fire Weather Watch is already in effect for most of the area for Thursday. We all need to be careful and continue to follow all the necessary precautions in order to prevent fires.
Friday through Monday look nice with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s.
Have a wonderful Wednesday!
We started off mild this morning with temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s. It looks like it will be another warm afternoon with highs in the low to mid 80s. Windy conditions should continue with winds from the south-southwest at 15 to 25 mph. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening thanks to the dryline that will move through the Big Country. Some of these storms could be severe with the main threats being large hail and damaging winds. Tornadoes do not look likely.
The chance for showers and thunderstorms continues tonight as a cold front gets pushed through the area by an upper level trough. Right now, the chance for rain is about 20% to 30%. The best chance of rain looks to be in the central and eastern portions of the viewing area. We'll keep an eye on things here in the weather center and let you know if anything becomes severe today or tonight.
Tomorrow should be cooler, but still mild. Highs will be in the low 70s. Windy conditions are expected with winds from the west-northwest at 20 to 30 mph. Low relative humidity values are likely, so a Fire Weather Watch is already in effect for most of the area for Thursday. We all need to be careful and continue to follow all the necessary precautions in order to prevent fires.
Friday through Monday look nice with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s.
Have a wonderful Wednesday!
Tuesday, March 07, 2006
Warm & Windy Tomorrow, Maybe a Thunderstorm
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
Chalk up another beautiful day in the books today. Afternoon highs climbed into the lower to middle 80s areawide. About the only problem were the winds today, tomorrow, the winds will be a little stronger. There will also be an outside chance for an isolated thunderstorm as well.
As an upper level system moves through from the West tomorrow, a dryline will push through the Big Country tomorrow afternoon. There is a chance for a few isolated, severe thunderstorms as the dryline pushes through. Behind the dryline, expect Westerly winds picking up to 20 to 30 miles per hour and gusting even stronger.
Tomorrow night a cold front will push through that could produce a line of showers and possibly severe thunderstorms with strong winds and hail being the main threat if the storms come to pass.
By Thursday, all rain chances will become a thing of the past as high pressure begins to build in. Winds will remain breezy Thursday with very dry air at the surface. Because of this, the National Weather Service has already issued a Fire Weather Watch for Thursday. Knox County is under a Red Flag Warning for Wednesday.
The rest of the extended forecast will remain sunny with high temperatures in the upper 70s.
Chalk up another beautiful day in the books today. Afternoon highs climbed into the lower to middle 80s areawide. About the only problem were the winds today, tomorrow, the winds will be a little stronger. There will also be an outside chance for an isolated thunderstorm as well.
As an upper level system moves through from the West tomorrow, a dryline will push through the Big Country tomorrow afternoon. There is a chance for a few isolated, severe thunderstorms as the dryline pushes through. Behind the dryline, expect Westerly winds picking up to 20 to 30 miles per hour and gusting even stronger.
Tomorrow night a cold front will push through that could produce a line of showers and possibly severe thunderstorms with strong winds and hail being the main threat if the storms come to pass.
By Thursday, all rain chances will become a thing of the past as high pressure begins to build in. Winds will remain breezy Thursday with very dry air at the surface. Because of this, the National Weather Service has already issued a Fire Weather Watch for Thursday. Knox County is under a Red Flag Warning for Wednesday.
The rest of the extended forecast will remain sunny with high temperatures in the upper 70s.
Monday, March 06, 2006
Slight Chance of Strong Thunderstorms
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
Warm and windy conditions will prevail for the next 48 hours or so across the area. Overnight lows tonight will only manage to dip to the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Tuesday afternoon expect high temperatures to climb back into the middle 80s with winds averaging 15 to 25 miles per hour out of the South.
Wednesday, things could change just a bit across the area as a deep trough in the upper levels of the atmosphere digs our direction. This trough will push a dryline through the Northern Big Country Wednesday afternoon and we could see a few isolated thunderstorms. As this trough pushes East, we could also see a couple of isolated thunderstorms on the back side of the trough.
This trough will then bring some cooler air in behind it, and also pull in drier, more stable air. By Thursday afternoon high temperatures will fall back into the lower 70s.
Friday through Monday mostly sunny skies will rule the area with afternoon highs in the middle to upper 70s.
Warm and windy conditions will prevail for the next 48 hours or so across the area. Overnight lows tonight will only manage to dip to the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Tuesday afternoon expect high temperatures to climb back into the middle 80s with winds averaging 15 to 25 miles per hour out of the South.
Wednesday, things could change just a bit across the area as a deep trough in the upper levels of the atmosphere digs our direction. This trough will push a dryline through the Northern Big Country Wednesday afternoon and we could see a few isolated thunderstorms. As this trough pushes East, we could also see a couple of isolated thunderstorms on the back side of the trough.
This trough will then bring some cooler air in behind it, and also pull in drier, more stable air. By Thursday afternoon high temperatures will fall back into the lower 70s.
Friday through Monday mostly sunny skies will rule the area with afternoon highs in the middle to upper 70s.
Friday, March 03, 2006
Pleasant Weekend Ahead
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
Well, that isolated shower or thunderstorm chance came to pass overnight, the only problem was, there was not enough rainfall to be measurable at Abilene Regional Airport, nor was there enough to keep anything wet by sunrise in most spots.
There is still a slight to 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday rain chances come to an end and we are left with a fantastic Sunday afternoon. Partly cloudy skies and highs in the middle 70s, it really doesn't get much nicer than that. The only thing that would make it better would be rainfall, which we desperately need.
Speaking of rainfall, we will have a chance of thunderstorms beginning Tuesday afternoon and peaking Wednesday afternoon. The upper level pattern looks to become VERY conducive for strong thunderstorms developing Wednesday afternoon and evening. Still, we are 4 to 5 days out from then, so a lot can change between now and then. Of course, we will keep you updated on the forecast for possibly our first severe weather event of 2006.
After Wednesday sunny skies and warm conditions look to return for next Thursday and Friday.
Well, that isolated shower or thunderstorm chance came to pass overnight, the only problem was, there was not enough rainfall to be measurable at Abilene Regional Airport, nor was there enough to keep anything wet by sunrise in most spots.
There is still a slight to 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday afternoon.
By Sunday rain chances come to an end and we are left with a fantastic Sunday afternoon. Partly cloudy skies and highs in the middle 70s, it really doesn't get much nicer than that. The only thing that would make it better would be rainfall, which we desperately need.
Speaking of rainfall, we will have a chance of thunderstorms beginning Tuesday afternoon and peaking Wednesday afternoon. The upper level pattern looks to become VERY conducive for strong thunderstorms developing Wednesday afternoon and evening. Still, we are 4 to 5 days out from then, so a lot can change between now and then. Of course, we will keep you updated on the forecast for possibly our first severe weather event of 2006.
After Wednesday sunny skies and warm conditions look to return for next Thursday and Friday.
Friday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We had another mild start to the day with temperatures bottoming out in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Mostly cloudy skies are expected today and that will keep temperatuers cooler than yesterday. Highs should make it into the low to mid 60s. Some showers and thunderstorms moved through portions of the area this morning. There is a 20% chance of more isolated showers and thunderstorms through the day and into tonight.
Saturday looks to be pretty similar today. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s thanks in part to winds from the southeast. It may be a little breezy at times. The 20% chance for rain will continue through the day.
A break from the rain is expected for Sunday and Monday despite a cold front moving through the area late on Sunday. Highs will be in the 70s on both days.
Things get a little interesting for Tuesday and Wednesday. It looks like we could see our first round of severe weather this season on those days. The dryline will likely be active during that time. Also, an upper level trough may be moving into the Lone Star state on Wednesday. The chance for these showers and thunderstorms stands at 20% for now. That could increase or even decrease as we get closer to those days. Be prepared for the possible severe weather and we'll continue to keep you updated.
Have a fantastic Friday!
We had another mild start to the day with temperatures bottoming out in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Mostly cloudy skies are expected today and that will keep temperatuers cooler than yesterday. Highs should make it into the low to mid 60s. Some showers and thunderstorms moved through portions of the area this morning. There is a 20% chance of more isolated showers and thunderstorms through the day and into tonight.
Saturday looks to be pretty similar today. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s thanks in part to winds from the southeast. It may be a little breezy at times. The 20% chance for rain will continue through the day.
A break from the rain is expected for Sunday and Monday despite a cold front moving through the area late on Sunday. Highs will be in the 70s on both days.
Things get a little interesting for Tuesday and Wednesday. It looks like we could see our first round of severe weather this season on those days. The dryline will likely be active during that time. Also, an upper level trough may be moving into the Lone Star state on Wednesday. The chance for these showers and thunderstorms stands at 20% for now. That could increase or even decrease as we get closer to those days. Be prepared for the possible severe weather and we'll continue to keep you updated.
Have a fantastic Friday!
Thursday, March 02, 2006
Severe Weather Season May Get Started Next Week
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
What a difference a day makes. Yesterday we were in the middle and upper 90s, today, middle 70s. Light showers have passed through the area as well. Unfortunately the rain has looked more impressive on radar than from the ground. Most if not all of the precipitation on Triple Doppler radar today has been what you call "virga," or rain that evaporates before reaching the ground. With the very dry air at the surface the rain just can't make the journey from the clouds to the ground.
In the short term rain chances will remain in the forecast through Saturday. That's the good news. I expect us to actually see some rain at the ground as well before all is said and done. We could see a couple of isolated thunderstorms as well beginning tonight. The sub-tropical jet stream has set-up above us. Periodic disturbances will pass and create enough lift for a couple of storms, nothing severe is expected this week.
Next week on the other hand, things could get a little dicey. Sunday looks pleasant with partly cloudy skies and highs back into the middle 70s. A cold front will push through Sunday evening. Monday looks nice as well with partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 60s.
By Tuesday through Thursday, our old friend, the dryline, could be back in service for the Spring. Strong upper-level dynamics look to setup beginning Tuesday. This could lead to isolated severe thunderstorms beginning Tuesday afternoon and evening.
According to the long range computer models are best chance for strong thunderstorms will be Wednesday night.
Remember we have a long time between now and then and I expect to make changes to this forecast. I just wanted to give you a heads up that Spring weather could be arriving fairly soon.
What a difference a day makes. Yesterday we were in the middle and upper 90s, today, middle 70s. Light showers have passed through the area as well. Unfortunately the rain has looked more impressive on radar than from the ground. Most if not all of the precipitation on Triple Doppler radar today has been what you call "virga," or rain that evaporates before reaching the ground. With the very dry air at the surface the rain just can't make the journey from the clouds to the ground.
In the short term rain chances will remain in the forecast through Saturday. That's the good news. I expect us to actually see some rain at the ground as well before all is said and done. We could see a couple of isolated thunderstorms as well beginning tonight. The sub-tropical jet stream has set-up above us. Periodic disturbances will pass and create enough lift for a couple of storms, nothing severe is expected this week.
Next week on the other hand, things could get a little dicey. Sunday looks pleasant with partly cloudy skies and highs back into the middle 70s. A cold front will push through Sunday evening. Monday looks nice as well with partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 60s.
By Tuesday through Thursday, our old friend, the dryline, could be back in service for the Spring. Strong upper-level dynamics look to setup beginning Tuesday. This could lead to isolated severe thunderstorms beginning Tuesday afternoon and evening.
According to the long range computer models are best chance for strong thunderstorms will be Wednesday night.
Remember we have a long time between now and then and I expect to make changes to this forecast. I just wanted to give you a heads up that Spring weather could be arriving fairly soon.
Thursday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
After setting a new record high of 95 yesterday, today will be much cooler. A cold front moved through the Big Country late last night and will bring our highs for today down into the upper 60s to low 70s. Breezy conditions are expected with winds from the northeast at 10 to 20 mph. We also have a 20% chance of some isolated showers, really more like sprinkles, through the day.
We could see more rain tonight through Saturday due to a couple of reasons. First, the cold front that passed us by will end up stalling south of the area near Interstate 10. Second, the subtropical jetstream will be in place near our area. Not only will it provide us some moisture, but a couple of upper level disturbances are expected to move along it and near the Big Country. These are the lifting mechanisms we will need to lift the moisture that should be in place. Right now, there is a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs during this time period will be in the 60s.
It's possible that we could see more rain on Sunday, before a break from it on Monday. An upper level low may move into the area Tuesday or Wednesday. This could bring rain back into the picture for the middle portions of next week. For now, that rain chance is only slight. We'll just have to wait and see.
Have a terrific Thursday!
After setting a new record high of 95 yesterday, today will be much cooler. A cold front moved through the Big Country late last night and will bring our highs for today down into the upper 60s to low 70s. Breezy conditions are expected with winds from the northeast at 10 to 20 mph. We also have a 20% chance of some isolated showers, really more like sprinkles, through the day.
We could see more rain tonight through Saturday due to a couple of reasons. First, the cold front that passed us by will end up stalling south of the area near Interstate 10. Second, the subtropical jetstream will be in place near our area. Not only will it provide us some moisture, but a couple of upper level disturbances are expected to move along it and near the Big Country. These are the lifting mechanisms we will need to lift the moisture that should be in place. Right now, there is a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs during this time period will be in the 60s.
It's possible that we could see more rain on Sunday, before a break from it on Monday. An upper level low may move into the area Tuesday or Wednesday. This could bring rain back into the picture for the middle portions of next week. For now, that rain chance is only slight. We'll just have to wait and see.
Have a terrific Thursday!
Wednesday, March 01, 2006
Wednesday Afternoon Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
As expected we experienced record breaking heat across the Big Country today. The thermometer is climbing because of the abundant sunshine and dry air in place. Plus, with a cold front approaching West Texas, compressional heating aided in warming us up as well.
Now, to that cold front. The front should arrive overnight tonight and bring gusty winds with it as it does. Winds will briefly pick up from 10 to 25 miles per hour as the front blows through. There is a slim chance of an isolated thunderstorm popping up tonight, but the chances are slim. The best chance will be just South and East of our area.
The good news is, moisture will return to the Big Country beginning Thursday and showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday through Saturday.
The cold front arriving tonight will become stationary and act as a focussing mechanism for precipitation. I am only expecting very isolated chances for rain, and light totals, but hey, it's a chance for rain.
Sunday, another cold front arrives and this one looks to push out most of the moisture from the area. The good news is, some models are hinting at this next front going stationary as well, which could bring us rain chances again by next Tuesday and Wednesday.
As expected we experienced record breaking heat across the Big Country today. The thermometer is climbing because of the abundant sunshine and dry air in place. Plus, with a cold front approaching West Texas, compressional heating aided in warming us up as well.
Now, to that cold front. The front should arrive overnight tonight and bring gusty winds with it as it does. Winds will briefly pick up from 10 to 25 miles per hour as the front blows through. There is a slim chance of an isolated thunderstorm popping up tonight, but the chances are slim. The best chance will be just South and East of our area.
The good news is, moisture will return to the Big Country beginning Thursday and showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday through Saturday.
The cold front arriving tonight will become stationary and act as a focussing mechanism for precipitation. I am only expecting very isolated chances for rain, and light totals, but hey, it's a chance for rain.
Sunday, another cold front arrives and this one looks to push out most of the moisture from the area. The good news is, some models are hinting at this next front going stationary as well, which could bring us rain chances again by next Tuesday and Wednesday.
Wednesday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
After tying a record high of 88 yesterday, it looks like we will be setting a new record high today. The record for this date at Abilene Regional Airport is 86 set back in 1899. That 107 year old record should be shattered with highs in the low 90s. If you like these summer-like conditions, enjoy them because changes begin tonight.
The elevated fire danger will continue today due to hot temperatures, low relative humidity values, and breezy winds. Please remember to follow all the necessary precautions in order to prevent fires.
A cold front should arrive tonight. This will cool temperatures back down to the low 70s for highs on Thursday. This front looks to stall south of the area and hang around for a few days. Moisture will stream into the area from the Gulf of Mexico. We also look to get some Pacific Ocean moisture from the subtropical jetstream since it will be moving into the area. A few upper level disturbances are projected to move near the Big Country during the Thursday through Saturday time period. This, as well as the cold front, will act as the lifting mechanisms for this moisture causing some showers and thunderstorms. Right now, the chance for rain is 20% to 40%.
Another cold front is expected to arrive early on Sunday and reenforce the cooler air that will already be in the area. Highs should be in the mid to upper 60s. More disturbance may head our way late Sunday and early next week. This means that we could see more showers and thunderstorms. For now, I am only going with a slight chance of rain during that time period. We'll take whatever we can get from these rain possiblities over the next week because we need it.
Have a wonderful Wednesday!
After tying a record high of 88 yesterday, it looks like we will be setting a new record high today. The record for this date at Abilene Regional Airport is 86 set back in 1899. That 107 year old record should be shattered with highs in the low 90s. If you like these summer-like conditions, enjoy them because changes begin tonight.
The elevated fire danger will continue today due to hot temperatures, low relative humidity values, and breezy winds. Please remember to follow all the necessary precautions in order to prevent fires.
A cold front should arrive tonight. This will cool temperatures back down to the low 70s for highs on Thursday. This front looks to stall south of the area and hang around for a few days. Moisture will stream into the area from the Gulf of Mexico. We also look to get some Pacific Ocean moisture from the subtropical jetstream since it will be moving into the area. A few upper level disturbances are projected to move near the Big Country during the Thursday through Saturday time period. This, as well as the cold front, will act as the lifting mechanisms for this moisture causing some showers and thunderstorms. Right now, the chance for rain is 20% to 40%.
Another cold front is expected to arrive early on Sunday and reenforce the cooler air that will already be in the area. Highs should be in the mid to upper 60s. More disturbance may head our way late Sunday and early next week. This means that we could see more showers and thunderstorms. For now, I am only going with a slight chance of rain during that time period. We'll take whatever we can get from these rain possiblities over the next week because we need it.
Have a wonderful Wednesday!
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