From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off mild this morning with temperatures mainly in the 40s to low 50s across the area. It will be a warm and windy day overall. Highs should reach the upper 70s to low 80s. The record high for this date at Abilene Regional Airport is 82 which was set in 2000, so we will be close to setting a new record. Winds will be strong from the southwest at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts likely. With warm temperatures, windy conditions, and low relative humidity values expected, the entire viewing area is under a Red Flag Warning. We need to continue to be careful and take the necessary precautions to prevent fires. You may also want to postpone your trip to the lake since there is a Lake Wind Advisory in effect for Haskell, Jones, Nolan, and Taylor counties from 10 a.m. until 6 p.m.
A cold front still looks to arrive tonight. No rain is expected, but it will be cooler. Temperatures are will likely remain above average for this time of year. Highs on Friday and Saturday should be in the low to mid 60s.
Warm and windy conditions return for Sunday ahead of another cold front that should arrive Sunday night. The good news is that we may see some rain with this front beginning that night and lasting into Monday. Right now that chance is only 20%, but hopefully as we get closer to the event the chance will improve. I'm not expecting a lot of rain, but at this point something is better than nothing.
Have a terrific Thursday!
Thursday, January 12, 2006
Wednesday, January 11, 2006
4:45p.m. Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
The winds are beginning to increase across the Big Country and with that the fire danger will continue to rise as well.
Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are in effect for the entire KRBC viewing area. Please continue to use extra caution outdoors. Burn bans remain in effect for over 78% of the state of Texas.
We do have some changes on the way. First, another cold front pushes through Thursday evening into Friday. This front will knock temperatures back down into the lower to middle 60s for Friday and Saturday.
Sunday afternoon expect another windy afternoon ahead of another cold front due to arrive Sunday night.
The good news about that front is it looks like we'll still have enough moisture around for a few showers Monday. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms East of our area Monday and Monday afternoon.
Even if we do see rain, I do not expect to receive more than a quarter of an inch across the area. This will not relieve the fire weather conditions across the Big Country in the long term, but it will help in the short term.
The winds are beginning to increase across the Big Country and with that the fire danger will continue to rise as well.
Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are in effect for the entire KRBC viewing area. Please continue to use extra caution outdoors. Burn bans remain in effect for over 78% of the state of Texas.
We do have some changes on the way. First, another cold front pushes through Thursday evening into Friday. This front will knock temperatures back down into the lower to middle 60s for Friday and Saturday.
Sunday afternoon expect another windy afternoon ahead of another cold front due to arrive Sunday night.
The good news about that front is it looks like we'll still have enough moisture around for a few showers Monday. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms East of our area Monday and Monday afternoon.
Even if we do see rain, I do not expect to receive more than a quarter of an inch across the area. This will not relieve the fire weather conditions across the Big Country in the long term, but it will help in the short term.
Wednesday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
It was a chilly start to the day across the Big Country. Brownwood and Snyder both dropped well below freezing this morning. Abilene and Sweetwater, however, stayed in the upper 30s to low 40s. It was colder towards Brownwood and Snyder because of calm to light winds. Everyone will warm up nicely this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 70s. The wind picks up today from the southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Due to the breezy conditions combined with the warm temperatures and low relative humidity values, most of the viewing area is under a Red Flag Warning. The only counties not under the warning are Knox, Stonewall, Scurry, and Mitchell counties.
The increased fire danger continues tomorrow. Highs will likely be in the mid to upper 70s with windy conditions. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for just about everybody. Knox County is not under one at this time. Stephens, Eastland, and Comanche counties are already under a Red Flag Warning for tomorrow and Friday. With the increased fire danger continuing we need to keep following all the necessary precautions to help prevent fires.
A cold front is expected to arrive late Thursday night, which will cool us down to the low 60s for highs on Friday and Saturday. It looks like this will be yet another dry frontal passage.
The good news is that after looking at the models this morning, we might see a little bit of rain Sunday night and into Monday. Chances aren't that great though. If I had to put a number on it right now, I would say it's slight to 20%. If we do see the rain, it doesn't look like much. But at this point, I think we'll take what we can get.
Have a wonderful Wednesday!
It was a chilly start to the day across the Big Country. Brownwood and Snyder both dropped well below freezing this morning. Abilene and Sweetwater, however, stayed in the upper 30s to low 40s. It was colder towards Brownwood and Snyder because of calm to light winds. Everyone will warm up nicely this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 70s. The wind picks up today from the southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Due to the breezy conditions combined with the warm temperatures and low relative humidity values, most of the viewing area is under a Red Flag Warning. The only counties not under the warning are Knox, Stonewall, Scurry, and Mitchell counties.
The increased fire danger continues tomorrow. Highs will likely be in the mid to upper 70s with windy conditions. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for just about everybody. Knox County is not under one at this time. Stephens, Eastland, and Comanche counties are already under a Red Flag Warning for tomorrow and Friday. With the increased fire danger continuing we need to keep following all the necessary precautions to help prevent fires.
A cold front is expected to arrive late Thursday night, which will cool us down to the low 60s for highs on Friday and Saturday. It looks like this will be yet another dry frontal passage.
The good news is that after looking at the models this morning, we might see a little bit of rain Sunday night and into Monday. Chances aren't that great though. If I had to put a number on it right now, I would say it's slight to 20%. If we do see the rain, it doesn't look like much. But at this point, I think we'll take what we can get.
Have a wonderful Wednesday!
Tuesday, January 10, 2006
4:45p.m. Update
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
What a beautiful day across the Big Country! It started off chilly, with folks in Snyder starting the morning off at 19 degrees. After the sun came up most of us warmed up into the lower 60s.
Unfortunately, it won't be as "perfect" tomorrow. Winds will begin to increase out of the South around 10 to 20 miles per hour as a trough builds in the Central plains. By Thursday this trough will form a low pressure system that will kick winds up to 15 to 25 miles per hour Thursday afternoon.
Fire Weather Watches are already in effect across the Big Country with Red Flag Warnings out for Stephens, Eastland and Comanche counties. As with all days until we finally get some rainfall, use extreme caution outdoors and remember that outdoor burning is still banned across the Big Country.
Speaking of rain, a couple of models are beginning to hint at the idea of a few showers on Martin Luther King, Jr. day next Monday. Right now it is just too far our to tell, but at least there is a slight chance of a chance for rain in the forecast.
There is also a chance of a strong shot of cold air moving into the U.S. by next Thursday. Again, give us a few more days and we will have a much better idea of when the cold air could arrive.
What a beautiful day across the Big Country! It started off chilly, with folks in Snyder starting the morning off at 19 degrees. After the sun came up most of us warmed up into the lower 60s.
Unfortunately, it won't be as "perfect" tomorrow. Winds will begin to increase out of the South around 10 to 20 miles per hour as a trough builds in the Central plains. By Thursday this trough will form a low pressure system that will kick winds up to 15 to 25 miles per hour Thursday afternoon.
Fire Weather Watches are already in effect across the Big Country with Red Flag Warnings out for Stephens, Eastland and Comanche counties. As with all days until we finally get some rainfall, use extreme caution outdoors and remember that outdoor burning is still banned across the Big Country.
Speaking of rain, a couple of models are beginning to hint at the idea of a few showers on Martin Luther King, Jr. day next Monday. Right now it is just too far our to tell, but at least there is a slight chance of a chance for rain in the forecast.
There is also a chance of a strong shot of cold air moving into the U.S. by next Thursday. Again, give us a few more days and we will have a much better idea of when the cold air could arrive.
Tuesday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off cold this morning with everyone pretty much at or below freezing. We should warm up nicely this afternoon. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50s. It won't be as breezy as yesterday with winds from the west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
The lighter winds will be short lived as they begin to pick up by tomorrow morning. Windy conditions are expected by the afternoon with winds from the southwest at 15 to 25 mph. After a few days in the 50s for highs, we'll return back to the low to mid 70s for Wednesday and Thursday. With warm temperatures, low relative humidity values and windy conditions likely for both days, there is an elevated fire danger. Most of the viewing area is under a Fire Weather Watch. Stonewall, Scurry, and Mitchell counties are not under the watch at this time. We all need to continue to follow the necessary precautions to help prevent fires.
A cold front is expected to arrive late Thursday night into Friday morning. This should cool us down into the upper 50s to low 60s for Friday and Saturday. No rain is expected with this front, so it looks like we will continue the dry trend through the weekend.
Have a terrific Tuesday!
We started off cold this morning with everyone pretty much at or below freezing. We should warm up nicely this afternoon. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50s. It won't be as breezy as yesterday with winds from the west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
The lighter winds will be short lived as they begin to pick up by tomorrow morning. Windy conditions are expected by the afternoon with winds from the southwest at 15 to 25 mph. After a few days in the 50s for highs, we'll return back to the low to mid 70s for Wednesday and Thursday. With warm temperatures, low relative humidity values and windy conditions likely for both days, there is an elevated fire danger. Most of the viewing area is under a Fire Weather Watch. Stonewall, Scurry, and Mitchell counties are not under the watch at this time. We all need to continue to follow the necessary precautions to help prevent fires.
A cold front is expected to arrive late Thursday night into Friday morning. This should cool us down into the upper 50s to low 60s for Friday and Saturday. No rain is expected with this front, so it looks like we will continue the dry trend through the weekend.
Have a terrific Tuesday!
Monday, January 09, 2006
Late Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
I apologize for the late update today. It has been a Monday full of meetings and construction. More on the construction over the next few weeks. I don't want to give too many details away. :-)
After a breezy a cool day across the Big Country today expect pleasant weather for your Tuesday. Winds will run about 5 to 10 miles per hour out of the West-Northwest and afternoon highs will struggle to reach 60 degress.
Unfortunately, this beautiful weather will only last for Tuesday. Another surface low pressure system will begin to form just North of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles creating yet another tightening pressure gradient across the area. Wednesday winds will begin to increase out of the Southwest anywhere from 10 to 25 miles per hour. This will continue through the day Thursday as well. With the warmer, drier air filtering in from the Southwest, afternoon highs will climb back into the lower to middle 70s.
Another cold front will pass Thursday into Friday. This frontal system will bring temperatures back to near normal for Friday and Saturday.
Still no rain in the forecast unfortunately. But, we are watching a fairly decent amount of cold air building in extreme Northern Canada. I'm expecting this airmass to being to make a move South by the beginning of next week. By the end of next week, I would be surprised to see temperature below normal across the Big Country. It's still a little too far out to tell if there will be any chance for precipitation with this system, but at least it looks like we will see a break to the overall pattern we've been in for the past few weeks.
I apologize for the late update today. It has been a Monday full of meetings and construction. More on the construction over the next few weeks. I don't want to give too many details away. :-)
After a breezy a cool day across the Big Country today expect pleasant weather for your Tuesday. Winds will run about 5 to 10 miles per hour out of the West-Northwest and afternoon highs will struggle to reach 60 degress.
Unfortunately, this beautiful weather will only last for Tuesday. Another surface low pressure system will begin to form just North of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles creating yet another tightening pressure gradient across the area. Wednesday winds will begin to increase out of the Southwest anywhere from 10 to 25 miles per hour. This will continue through the day Thursday as well. With the warmer, drier air filtering in from the Southwest, afternoon highs will climb back into the lower to middle 70s.
Another cold front will pass Thursday into Friday. This frontal system will bring temperatures back to near normal for Friday and Saturday.
Still no rain in the forecast unfortunately. But, we are watching a fairly decent amount of cold air building in extreme Northern Canada. I'm expecting this airmass to being to make a move South by the beginning of next week. By the end of next week, I would be surprised to see temperature below normal across the Big Country. It's still a little too far out to tell if there will be any chance for precipitation with this system, but at least it looks like we will see a break to the overall pattern we've been in for the past few weeks.
Monday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
After a warm weekend, it looks like we will begin the work week with much cooler temperatures. A cold front is making it's way across the Big Country this morning and should clear the southern portions of the viewing area by early this afternoon. Highs today will reach the upper 50s to low 60s, which is still a little above average for this time of year. Breezy conditions are expected with winds from the south ahead of the front shifting to the north behind it. Sustained winds look to be about 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts likely with the frontal passage. There is an elevated fire danger today because of the breezy conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Stephens, Eastland, and Comanche counties.
You might want to bring the pets in tonight. It looks we'll have cold temperatures with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Tomorrow should be nice with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 50s. The good news is that winds are expected to be light from the west-northwest.
The lighter winds look to be short lived as windy conditions are expected for Wednesday and Thursday. It should also be warm with highs in the low to mid 70s both days.
A cold front is expected to arrive early Friday cooling us back down into the upper 50s for highs. The bad news is that this looks to be another dry frontal passage. As of right now, we'll be dry through at least the end of this week. Please continue to use all precautions when you are outside. With a dry ground and breezy conditions, it doesn't take much for a fire to start and get out of control quickly.
Have a magnificent Monday!
After a warm weekend, it looks like we will begin the work week with much cooler temperatures. A cold front is making it's way across the Big Country this morning and should clear the southern portions of the viewing area by early this afternoon. Highs today will reach the upper 50s to low 60s, which is still a little above average for this time of year. Breezy conditions are expected with winds from the south ahead of the front shifting to the north behind it. Sustained winds look to be about 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts likely with the frontal passage. There is an elevated fire danger today because of the breezy conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Stephens, Eastland, and Comanche counties.
You might want to bring the pets in tonight. It looks we'll have cold temperatures with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Tomorrow should be nice with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 50s. The good news is that winds are expected to be light from the west-northwest.
The lighter winds look to be short lived as windy conditions are expected for Wednesday and Thursday. It should also be warm with highs in the low to mid 70s both days.
A cold front is expected to arrive early Friday cooling us back down into the upper 50s for highs. The bad news is that this looks to be another dry frontal passage. As of right now, we'll be dry through at least the end of this week. Please continue to use all precautions when you are outside. With a dry ground and breezy conditions, it doesn't take much for a fire to start and get out of control quickly.
Have a magnificent Monday!
Saturday, January 07, 2006
Saturday Update
From meteorologist Jason Myers.....
A Red Flag Warning will remain in effect for Sunday, meaning that the threat for fires getting out of control is high.
Another warm, recording breaking high temperature today. Today's high of 78 degrees beat the record of 74 degrees set back in 1965. The warm temperatures will stay around for the rest of the weekend along with the windy conditions. Sunday's winds will be from the west-southwest from around 10-20 mph with some gusts 25-30 mph at certain locations. A cold front will move through on Monday bringing temperatures down into the 60s for the first half of the week, yet the 70s will return for Thursday and Friday.
Long-range models are indicating cold, arctic air working its way down into Texas and the Big Country about 10 days from now. That's still a long way out, yet it does look like colder air is possible for the week after the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend.
The fire danger remains in effect with no rain chances in the near future.
A Red Flag Warning will remain in effect for Sunday, meaning that the threat for fires getting out of control is high.
Another warm, recording breaking high temperature today. Today's high of 78 degrees beat the record of 74 degrees set back in 1965. The warm temperatures will stay around for the rest of the weekend along with the windy conditions. Sunday's winds will be from the west-southwest from around 10-20 mph with some gusts 25-30 mph at certain locations. A cold front will move through on Monday bringing temperatures down into the 60s for the first half of the week, yet the 70s will return for Thursday and Friday.
Long-range models are indicating cold, arctic air working its way down into Texas and the Big Country about 10 days from now. That's still a long way out, yet it does look like colder air is possible for the week after the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend.
The fire danger remains in effect with no rain chances in the near future.
Friday, January 06, 2006
Question From Matthew
Matthew asks: "What's your opinion on the possible precip. that the models are hinting at towards the middle of the month? Could there be a winter wx. event if the major cool-down combines with the precip.?"
Matthew,
GREAT question. If there is one major problem with extended computer models, it's that the longer the run, or the farther out the forecast, the less accuracy. When you start looking at models past the first few days, one of the things a forecaster has to do is start looking for trends, as opposed to exact details. For example, the GFSX, which is one of the models I use on a daily basis puts out a product that gives exact forecast numbers called a MOS product. (MOS = Model Output Statistics) When using the GFSX MOS product after day 4 or 5, the model starts using the climatological averages as part of the equation. So, you have to take that into account when forecasting. The same goes with looking at extended models for precipitation. Too many different factors can come into play between now and then that could change. Do I believe there is a chance of precipitation? Certainly, we won't stay dry forever.
As far as winter weather, I have noticed that a decent amount of cold air is beginning to build between Alaska and the Arctic. Generally, when you see that much cold air building, one can believe that it has to move eventually. Judging from the upper air pattern across the Pacific and North America, it seems like the pattern we are in now could break down in a couple of weeks. IF that pattern breaks down, IF that cold air makes a move South and IF the precipitation you mentioned pans out, sure, we could see a winter weather event.
IF you ask me, there's a few too many IF's there to get excited this soon.
I hope that answers your question Matthew. If you would like to, please e-mail where you saw the model information about the precipitation and I can go into detail about the particular model and it's biases.
We love to answer questions here, if there is anything anyone else would like to ask, please post a comment on the board or e-mail me at ccarnesi@krbc.tv and I'll answer as soon as I can.
Matthew,
GREAT question. If there is one major problem with extended computer models, it's that the longer the run, or the farther out the forecast, the less accuracy. When you start looking at models past the first few days, one of the things a forecaster has to do is start looking for trends, as opposed to exact details. For example, the GFSX, which is one of the models I use on a daily basis puts out a product that gives exact forecast numbers called a MOS product. (MOS = Model Output Statistics) When using the GFSX MOS product after day 4 or 5, the model starts using the climatological averages as part of the equation. So, you have to take that into account when forecasting. The same goes with looking at extended models for precipitation. Too many different factors can come into play between now and then that could change. Do I believe there is a chance of precipitation? Certainly, we won't stay dry forever.
As far as winter weather, I have noticed that a decent amount of cold air is beginning to build between Alaska and the Arctic. Generally, when you see that much cold air building, one can believe that it has to move eventually. Judging from the upper air pattern across the Pacific and North America, it seems like the pattern we are in now could break down in a couple of weeks. IF that pattern breaks down, IF that cold air makes a move South and IF the precipitation you mentioned pans out, sure, we could see a winter weather event.
IF you ask me, there's a few too many IF's there to get excited this soon.
I hope that answers your question Matthew. If you would like to, please e-mail where you saw the model information about the precipitation and I can go into detail about the particular model and it's biases.
We love to answer questions here, if there is anything anyone else would like to ask, please post a comment on the board or e-mail me at ccarnesi@krbc.tv and I'll answer as soon as I can.
4:30 p.m. Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
After starting today off at a chilly 27 in Abilene and 21 in Brownwood, we warmed up quickly to highs in the upper 60s. The reason is simply because of the very dry air in place. We are almost in a desert like climate. Dry air is much easier to warm and in turn very easy to cool at night with clear skies and calm winds.
The winds are still forecast to be a problem across the area this weekend. Red Flag Warnings are already posted across almost the entire viewing area through Saturday night. The only exceptions are Stonewall, Scurry and Mitchell counties, you are under a Fire Weather Watch for right now, but don't be surprised if the National Weather Service upgrades that watch to a Red Flag Warning tonight.
Winds will increase from 10 miles per hour Saturday morning to 20 to 30 miles per hour by Saturday afternoon. What is going to make this weekend particularly dangerous is that winds are not forecasted to calm until Sunday night. Plus, winds will be shifting direction over the course of the weekend. Usually on an afternoon the winds will begin to calm after sunset, this weekend they will not. The system that will create these winds will keep the pressure gradient tight across the area overnight Saturday into Sunday, so the winds will remain strong, around 15 to 20 miles per hour.
Sunday, if there are any active fires, changing wind direction will be a huge concern. Winds will begin to shift to the West and then eventually to the Northwest Sunday evening. As those winds change direction the direction of fire movement will change as well. Again, this will only be a major concern IF any fires are burning.
For now, please continue to use extreme caution when outdoors. No outdoor burning, no trash burning of any kind, no bar-be-cues and also please no welding or cutting torches of any kind. Also, please use extreme caution with any and all farm equipment and vehicles on the dry ground. Believe it or not, but your engine block could be hot enough to spark a fire. So please keep all vehicles on paved surfaces for the time being.
Again, as with previous forecasts, there is still no precipitation expected over the next 7 to 10 days.
After starting today off at a chilly 27 in Abilene and 21 in Brownwood, we warmed up quickly to highs in the upper 60s. The reason is simply because of the very dry air in place. We are almost in a desert like climate. Dry air is much easier to warm and in turn very easy to cool at night with clear skies and calm winds.
The winds are still forecast to be a problem across the area this weekend. Red Flag Warnings are already posted across almost the entire viewing area through Saturday night. The only exceptions are Stonewall, Scurry and Mitchell counties, you are under a Fire Weather Watch for right now, but don't be surprised if the National Weather Service upgrades that watch to a Red Flag Warning tonight.
Winds will increase from 10 miles per hour Saturday morning to 20 to 30 miles per hour by Saturday afternoon. What is going to make this weekend particularly dangerous is that winds are not forecasted to calm until Sunday night. Plus, winds will be shifting direction over the course of the weekend. Usually on an afternoon the winds will begin to calm after sunset, this weekend they will not. The system that will create these winds will keep the pressure gradient tight across the area overnight Saturday into Sunday, so the winds will remain strong, around 15 to 20 miles per hour.
Sunday, if there are any active fires, changing wind direction will be a huge concern. Winds will begin to shift to the West and then eventually to the Northwest Sunday evening. As those winds change direction the direction of fire movement will change as well. Again, this will only be a major concern IF any fires are burning.
For now, please continue to use extreme caution when outdoors. No outdoor burning, no trash burning of any kind, no bar-be-cues and also please no welding or cutting torches of any kind. Also, please use extreme caution with any and all farm equipment and vehicles on the dry ground. Believe it or not, but your engine block could be hot enough to spark a fire. So please keep all vehicles on paved surfaces for the time being.
Again, as with previous forecasts, there is still no precipitation expected over the next 7 to 10 days.
Friday Morning Update
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
Sorry for the late update this morning, it has been a busy day for me here in the weather center. We started off cold this morning with most areas at or below freezing. We should warm up nicely this afternoon into the low to mid 60s. Winds will be from the southwest at 5 to 10 mph so it won't be nearly as windy today as it was yesterday.
Tomorrow and Sunday are a different story. Windy conditions are expected through the weekend. This will combine with low relative humidity values and warm temperatures. Most of the area is under a Red Flag Warning for tomorrow and a Fire Weather Watch for Saturday night and Sunday. We all need to be very careful this weekend. It won't take much for a fire to get out of control quickly, so please follow all the necessary fire precautions. Highs on Saturday and Sunday look to be in the mid to upper 70s. Some locations may reach the low 80s.
A cold front is expected to arrive late Sunday night into Monday morning. This should cool us down into the mid 60s for high on Monday and Tuesday. It still looks like we will remain dry for at least the next week.
Have a fantastic Friday!
Sorry for the late update this morning, it has been a busy day for me here in the weather center. We started off cold this morning with most areas at or below freezing. We should warm up nicely this afternoon into the low to mid 60s. Winds will be from the southwest at 5 to 10 mph so it won't be nearly as windy today as it was yesterday.
Tomorrow and Sunday are a different story. Windy conditions are expected through the weekend. This will combine with low relative humidity values and warm temperatures. Most of the area is under a Red Flag Warning for tomorrow and a Fire Weather Watch for Saturday night and Sunday. We all need to be very careful this weekend. It won't take much for a fire to get out of control quickly, so please follow all the necessary fire precautions. Highs on Saturday and Sunday look to be in the mid to upper 70s. Some locations may reach the low 80s.
A cold front is expected to arrive late Sunday night into Monday morning. This should cool us down into the mid 60s for high on Monday and Tuesday. It still looks like we will remain dry for at least the next week.
Have a fantastic Friday!
Thursday, January 05, 2006
5:00 p.m. Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
More of the same across the Big Country over the next 24 hours.
The big change for tonight will be a hard freeze areawide, which we have not seen in quite awhile. Remember to bring the pets indoors tonight. Also, remember to use extra caution with space heaters. If at all possible, throw an extra blanket on the bed instead of using a space heater.
Winds will remain calm tonight and only run 5 to 10 miles per hour Friday. By Saturday, winds will get back into the windy catagory running 15 to 25 miles per hour.
The National Weather Service has already Fire Weather Watches for all of our viewing area for Saturday. These watches will likely be upgraded to Red Flag Warnings tomorrow.
Sunday will remain windy as well, as winds come around to a more Westerly direction as opposed to the Southwesterly direction expected Saturday. The other big concern on Sunday will be the timing of a cold front arriving with any fires that could be burning. Winds will quickly shift from the West to the North sometime Sunday. As this happens, if any fires are burning, this could seriously hurt fire fighters while battling fires.
We will have a much better handle on the timing of the wind shift as we get into the weekend.
More of the same across the Big Country over the next 24 hours.
The big change for tonight will be a hard freeze areawide, which we have not seen in quite awhile. Remember to bring the pets indoors tonight. Also, remember to use extra caution with space heaters. If at all possible, throw an extra blanket on the bed instead of using a space heater.
Winds will remain calm tonight and only run 5 to 10 miles per hour Friday. By Saturday, winds will get back into the windy catagory running 15 to 25 miles per hour.
The National Weather Service has already Fire Weather Watches for all of our viewing area for Saturday. These watches will likely be upgraded to Red Flag Warnings tomorrow.
Sunday will remain windy as well, as winds come around to a more Westerly direction as opposed to the Southwesterly direction expected Saturday. The other big concern on Sunday will be the timing of a cold front arriving with any fires that could be burning. Winds will quickly shift from the West to the North sometime Sunday. As this happens, if any fires are burning, this could seriously hurt fire fighters while battling fires.
We will have a much better handle on the timing of the wind shift as we get into the weekend.
Another Windy Day Ahead
From Meteorologist Brandon Rector...
We started off chilly this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 30s across the area. We should warm up nicely this afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Windy conditions are expected with winds from the north-northwest at 10 to 25 mph. There is an increased fire danger today due to the windy and dry conditions. In fact, Stephens, Eastland, and Commanche counties are under a Red Flag Warning from noon until 6 p.m. today.
Friday looks to be a pretty good day with temperatures in the low 60s and winds from the southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
An upper level system is still projected to pass to our north on Saturday which means that we will likely have windy conditions. With low relative humidity values also expected, most of the National Weather Service offices that cover our viewing area have issued a Fire Weather Watch for Saturday. Right now, only Stonewall, Scurry, and Mitchell counties are not under the watch. That could change, so stay tuned. Highs should reach the upper 70s.
Unfortunately, it looks like we will remain dry for at least the next five to seven days. We all need to continue to be careful and follow the necessary fire prevention precautions.
Have a terrific Thursday!
We started off chilly this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 30s across the area. We should warm up nicely this afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Windy conditions are expected with winds from the north-northwest at 10 to 25 mph. There is an increased fire danger today due to the windy and dry conditions. In fact, Stephens, Eastland, and Commanche counties are under a Red Flag Warning from noon until 6 p.m. today.
Friday looks to be a pretty good day with temperatures in the low 60s and winds from the southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
An upper level system is still projected to pass to our north on Saturday which means that we will likely have windy conditions. With low relative humidity values also expected, most of the National Weather Service offices that cover our viewing area have issued a Fire Weather Watch for Saturday. Right now, only Stonewall, Scurry, and Mitchell counties are not under the watch. That could change, so stay tuned. Highs should reach the upper 70s.
Unfortunately, it looks like we will remain dry for at least the next five to seven days. We all need to continue to be careful and follow the necessary fire prevention precautions.
Have a terrific Thursday!
Wednesday, January 04, 2006
4:30p.m. Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
A much cooler afternoon across the Big Country today. Yesterday Abilene set a record high temperatures of 86 degrees, today, our high temperatures only made it into the lower 60s.
The cool weather will stick around for a couple of days. A reinforcing shot of cooler air will arrive Thursday afternoon, bringing with it gusty winds out of the North. With the dry air still around, and winds gusting to 30 miles per hour, the fire weather danger will remain elevated Thursday afternoon.
The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has already issued a Red Flag Warning for Stephens, Eastland and Comanche counties until 6:00 p.m. Thursday because of the dry and windy conditions.
The winds will calm down a bit Friday, but temperatures will remain cool in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
By Saturday, another upper level system will pass to our North, and with that, winds will once again become windy. Winds are forecasted to run anywhere from 15 to 30 miles per hour. The National Weather Service is already anticipating issuing a Red Flag Warning for Saturday.
Unfortunately, the extended forecast still remains dry. Looking ahead, I still do not see a chance for rain over the next 7 to 10 days.
A much cooler afternoon across the Big Country today. Yesterday Abilene set a record high temperatures of 86 degrees, today, our high temperatures only made it into the lower 60s.
The cool weather will stick around for a couple of days. A reinforcing shot of cooler air will arrive Thursday afternoon, bringing with it gusty winds out of the North. With the dry air still around, and winds gusting to 30 miles per hour, the fire weather danger will remain elevated Thursday afternoon.
The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has already issued a Red Flag Warning for Stephens, Eastland and Comanche counties until 6:00 p.m. Thursday because of the dry and windy conditions.
The winds will calm down a bit Friday, but temperatures will remain cool in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
By Saturday, another upper level system will pass to our North, and with that, winds will once again become windy. Winds are forecasted to run anywhere from 15 to 30 miles per hour. The National Weather Service is already anticipating issuing a Red Flag Warning for Saturday.
Unfortunately, the extended forecast still remains dry. Looking ahead, I still do not see a chance for rain over the next 7 to 10 days.
Wednesday Morning Update
From meteorologist Jason Myers.....
A cool start to your morning. Temperatures did not fall very much overnight due to the cloudy skies that are keeping in the heat from yesterday's warm temperatures. However, cooler temperatures are forecasted for this afternoon. A cold front made it's way across the Big Country early this morning bringing with it cooler air. Winds have shifted to the North-Northwest today and will be breezy at times with winds 10 - 20 mph. Afternoon highs will only manage to make it into the low to mid 60s. Skies should begin to clear this afternoon into this evening. The clear skies will aid in radiational cooling helping today's cooler temperatures to fall into the 30s overnight. The rest of the work week looks to start with cool mornings with lows in the 30s and afternoon highs in the 60s. Expect more sunshine than clouds Thursday and Friday. The National Weather Service may issue a Red Flag Warning for Saturday as gusty winds and warm temperatures are forecasted.
Tropical Storm Zeta is in the Central Atlantic, moving to the West at 7 mph with sustained winds of 60 mph. The storm looks to lose strength this weekend.
Have a great day!
A cool start to your morning. Temperatures did not fall very much overnight due to the cloudy skies that are keeping in the heat from yesterday's warm temperatures. However, cooler temperatures are forecasted for this afternoon. A cold front made it's way across the Big Country early this morning bringing with it cooler air. Winds have shifted to the North-Northwest today and will be breezy at times with winds 10 - 20 mph. Afternoon highs will only manage to make it into the low to mid 60s. Skies should begin to clear this afternoon into this evening. The clear skies will aid in radiational cooling helping today's cooler temperatures to fall into the 30s overnight. The rest of the work week looks to start with cool mornings with lows in the 30s and afternoon highs in the 60s. Expect more sunshine than clouds Thursday and Friday. The National Weather Service may issue a Red Flag Warning for Saturday as gusty winds and warm temperatures are forecasted.
Tropical Storm Zeta is in the Central Atlantic, moving to the West at 7 mph with sustained winds of 60 mph. The storm looks to lose strength this weekend.
Have a great day!
Tuesday, January 03, 2006
Tuesday Afternoon Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
There is finally a little bit of good news for the next couple of days. A cold front arriving late tonight into tomorrow morning will bring afternoon highs closer to seasonal averages. With the arrival of the cooler air, relative humidity values will be rising. We won't necessarily be adding more mositure to the atmosphere, but we with the cooler temperatures the fire danger will decrease just a bit for the next few days.
There are still Red Flag Warnings active through 7pm tonight for the following counties in the KRBC viewing area: Knox, Haskell, Throckmorton, Fisher, Jones, Shackelford, Stephens, Nolan, Taylor, Callahan, Eastland, Sterling, Coke, Runnels, Coleman, Brown and Comanche.
We will see a couple of light freezes over the next few nights as well. Thursday morning and Friday morning will be those mornings. Remember to bring the pets in on those nights and use extra caution with heaters and space heaters. I would advise that you not use a space heater, just throw an extra blanket on the bed for those nights.
We will probably see another windy day Saturday, with increased fire danger as another upper level system passes to our North.
For now, I still do not forsee a chance of rain through the next 5 to 7 days. Please use extra caution while outdoors and remember that burn bans are still in effect across the area.
There is finally a little bit of good news for the next couple of days. A cold front arriving late tonight into tomorrow morning will bring afternoon highs closer to seasonal averages. With the arrival of the cooler air, relative humidity values will be rising. We won't necessarily be adding more mositure to the atmosphere, but we with the cooler temperatures the fire danger will decrease just a bit for the next few days.
There are still Red Flag Warnings active through 7pm tonight for the following counties in the KRBC viewing area: Knox, Haskell, Throckmorton, Fisher, Jones, Shackelford, Stephens, Nolan, Taylor, Callahan, Eastland, Sterling, Coke, Runnels, Coleman, Brown and Comanche.
We will see a couple of light freezes over the next few nights as well. Thursday morning and Friday morning will be those mornings. Remember to bring the pets in on those nights and use extra caution with heaters and space heaters. I would advise that you not use a space heater, just throw an extra blanket on the bed for those nights.
We will probably see another windy day Saturday, with increased fire danger as another upper level system passes to our North.
For now, I still do not forsee a chance of rain through the next 5 to 7 days. Please use extra caution while outdoors and remember that burn bans are still in effect across the area.
Tuesday Morning Update
From meteorologist Jason Myers....
Critical fire weather conditions continue. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 10 A.M. to 6 P.M. this afternoon for Fisher, Nolan, Haskell, Throckmorton, Jones, Shackelford, Taylor, Stephens, Comanche, Knox, Eastland, and Callahan counties. Near record high temperatures, very low humidities, and increasing winds from the southwest will lead to this fire danger.
(NWS Red Flag Wrning Statement):
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=TXZ127&warncounty=TXC441&local_place1=Abilene&product1=Red+Flag+Warning
Today's temperatures will climb to 80 degrees or more for most locations across the Big Country. Abilene's record high is 82 degrees set back in 1997...a record that looks to be tied or broken.
Clouds will start to increase this afternoon with an approaching cold front. This cold front will bring cooler temperatures for Wednesday through this weekend, with high temperatures staying in the 60s.
Have a great day and use caution outside with the extremely dry conditions.
Critical fire weather conditions continue. A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 10 A.M. to 6 P.M. this afternoon for Fisher, Nolan, Haskell, Throckmorton, Jones, Shackelford, Taylor, Stephens, Comanche, Knox, Eastland, and Callahan counties. Near record high temperatures, very low humidities, and increasing winds from the southwest will lead to this fire danger.
(NWS Red Flag Wrning Statement):
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=TXZ127&warncounty=TXC441&local_place1=Abilene&product1=Red+Flag+Warning
Today's temperatures will climb to 80 degrees or more for most locations across the Big Country. Abilene's record high is 82 degrees set back in 1997...a record that looks to be tied or broken.
Clouds will start to increase this afternoon with an approaching cold front. This cold front will bring cooler temperatures for Wednesday through this weekend, with high temperatures staying in the 60s.
Have a great day and use caution outside with the extremely dry conditions.
Monday, January 02, 2006
Afternoon Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
The fire danger continues across the KRBC viewing area and most of the states of Texas and Oklahoma. Increased winds on Tuesday have again caused the National Weather Service to issue Fire Weather Watches for Fisher, Nolan, Haskell, Throckmorton, Jones, Shackelford, Taylor, Callahan and Knox Counties.
Stephens, Eastland and Comanche counties are under a Red Flag Warning until 7:00 p.m. Monday evening due to the very dry conditions.
I would not be surprised at all to see more counties either added to the Fire Weather Watch, or all of the area upgraded to a Red Flag Warning because of the expected windy and dry conditions Tuesday.
As another system passes to our North, a tight pressure gradient will increase winds up to 10 to 20 miles per hour. There is a chance that wind speeds could get up to 20 to 30 miles per hour with higher gusts.
Remember, burn bans are in effect for all of the viewing area. Please, no outdoor burning of any kind.
Unfortunately, there is still no rain in the forecast at this time. A cold front will pass through the area overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, bring cooler temperatures through the extended forecast.
We could see strong gusty winds yet again on Saturday as another systems moves into the Central Plains.
The fire danger continues across the KRBC viewing area and most of the states of Texas and Oklahoma. Increased winds on Tuesday have again caused the National Weather Service to issue Fire Weather Watches for Fisher, Nolan, Haskell, Throckmorton, Jones, Shackelford, Taylor, Callahan and Knox Counties.
Stephens, Eastland and Comanche counties are under a Red Flag Warning until 7:00 p.m. Monday evening due to the very dry conditions.
I would not be surprised at all to see more counties either added to the Fire Weather Watch, or all of the area upgraded to a Red Flag Warning because of the expected windy and dry conditions Tuesday.
As another system passes to our North, a tight pressure gradient will increase winds up to 10 to 20 miles per hour. There is a chance that wind speeds could get up to 20 to 30 miles per hour with higher gusts.
Remember, burn bans are in effect for all of the viewing area. Please, no outdoor burning of any kind.
Unfortunately, there is still no rain in the forecast at this time. A cold front will pass through the area overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, bring cooler temperatures through the extended forecast.
We could see strong gusty winds yet again on Saturday as another systems moves into the Central Plains.
Monday Morning Update
From meteorologist Jason Myers.....
A pleasant day to be outdoors today. With highs in the lower 70s across much of the Big Country and mostly sunny skies, it will be a very nice day to be outdoors. Winds will be lighter from yesterday's wind gusts that were near 50 mph at times; today we'll see west-northwest winds from 5 - 10 mph. Yesterday's high temperature tied our record high, by reaching 82 degrees. Today will be about 10 degrees cooler because of a cold front that has passed through bringing cooler air along with it.
Winds on Tuesday will increase from the southwest at 10 - 20 mph. Temperatures will also increase into the upper 70s as an approaching cold front works through the Big County.
Wednesday through Friday the high temperatures become a little cooler due to the cold front passing late Tuesday into early Wednesday; highs will stay in the upper 60s for Wednesday and lower 60s for Thursday and Friday.
No rain is forecasted for the first week of 2006 keeping burn bans in effect. Extreme caution needs to be taken outdoors by not burning anything, no outdoor grilling, and no throwing of cigarettes outside, to name a few.
Enjoy the pleasant weather today!
A pleasant day to be outdoors today. With highs in the lower 70s across much of the Big Country and mostly sunny skies, it will be a very nice day to be outdoors. Winds will be lighter from yesterday's wind gusts that were near 50 mph at times; today we'll see west-northwest winds from 5 - 10 mph. Yesterday's high temperature tied our record high, by reaching 82 degrees. Today will be about 10 degrees cooler because of a cold front that has passed through bringing cooler air along with it.
Winds on Tuesday will increase from the southwest at 10 - 20 mph. Temperatures will also increase into the upper 70s as an approaching cold front works through the Big County.
Wednesday through Friday the high temperatures become a little cooler due to the cold front passing late Tuesday into early Wednesday; highs will stay in the upper 60s for Wednesday and lower 60s for Thursday and Friday.
No rain is forecasted for the first week of 2006 keeping burn bans in effect. Extreme caution needs to be taken outdoors by not burning anything, no outdoor grilling, and no throwing of cigarettes outside, to name a few.
Enjoy the pleasant weather today!
Sunday, January 01, 2006
Evening Discussion
From Chief Meteorologist Craig Carnesi...
First, the thoughts and prayers of the entire KRBC team are with those who have lost loved ones and/or homes and animals to the fires across the area this week and weekend.
Unfortunately there is still no rain in our extended forecast.
Winds will finally ease a bit overnight into Monday. Highs across the area Monday will run in the upper 60s to lower 70s behind a weak cold front.
Tuesday night will be another warm and windy day, with winds running 15-25 miles per hour and high temperatures creeping back to near 80.
Tuesday night another, this time stronger, cold front will push through the area. This front will cool temperatures down into the lower to middle 60s for the rest of the work-week.
Again, there is no rain in the extended forecast, so please, no outdoor burning of any kind. No fireworks what-so-ever, and please, keep all cigarette butts inside your vehicle.
First, the thoughts and prayers of the entire KRBC team are with those who have lost loved ones and/or homes and animals to the fires across the area this week and weekend.
Unfortunately there is still no rain in our extended forecast.
Winds will finally ease a bit overnight into Monday. Highs across the area Monday will run in the upper 60s to lower 70s behind a weak cold front.
Tuesday night will be another warm and windy day, with winds running 15-25 miles per hour and high temperatures creeping back to near 80.
Tuesday night another, this time stronger, cold front will push through the area. This front will cool temperatures down into the lower to middle 60s for the rest of the work-week.
Again, there is no rain in the extended forecast, so please, no outdoor burning of any kind. No fireworks what-so-ever, and please, keep all cigarette butts inside your vehicle.
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