Tracking Ike - Will Affect Our Area

From KRBC Chief Meteorologist Randy Turner ...

It isn't often we have so many "players" in the weather game as we do right now. Let me tell you about each one.

1. Lowell - a Tropical Depression in the eastern Pacific currently southwest of the tip of the Baja. Moisture from that area is being pumped into our region on the southwest upper level winds. About once a day, a little piece of instability or energy or "disturbance" comes out of the southwest from that system and creates rain across our area. We may not see as much influence from Lowell moisture Thursday but he's going to remain out there.
2. Ike - Back in the open waters of the Gulf, Hurricane Ike is strengthening and headed to Texas for landfall Friday night or Saturday morning. The track is generally toward Corpus Christi. Forecast models are still not in agreement on which way Ike goes after landfall. One takes Ike across deep South Texas and into northern Mexico - one takes Ike directly over our area - one takes Ike closer to Brownwood - two take Ike up I-35 to Waco and DFW by Sunday and one takes Ike with a landfall between Corpus and Houston then up I-45. The National Hurricane Center track is up I-35.
3. Upper Level Trough - The reason the majority of the models are keeping Ike slightly east is their basis that the upper level trough over the northwest will swing across the Rockies and pick-up Ike and take him northeast.
4. Cold Front - Expected to arrive Saturday night or Sunday would interact with abundant moisture to help create rain.
5. High pressure ridge - stationed over the southeast U.S. and directly over Ike (which helps hurricanes ventilate and strengthen) is expected to remain over Ike through Thursday but then comes the question of whether the above mentioned upper level trough can buckle the high and force Ike northward after landfall. It's simply a timing issue on which way Ike goes which has direct impact on how much rain is in our local forecast.
So, there you have it - all the "players" in our current weather game.

Tonight: A 40% chance for showers, low near 70. Light east wind.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, a slight 30% chance for showers, highs middle 80's. Southeast wind at 10.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy, low around 70. Slight chance for rain.

Friday: Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy, high near 90, slight 30% chance for rain.

Friday Night: Cloudy, 30% chance for rain, low near 70.

Saturday: It all depends on the track of Ike - but a good chance for rain here locally with gusty wind. Any deviation to the west greatly increases our chance here. For now, I'll go with a 60% chance with highs in the low 80's.

Saturday Night and Sunday: Depends on Ike - but a cold front is also approaching by Sunday - 60% chance for showers and storms, high Sunday around 80.

Monday and Tuesday: Continued 40% chance for rain, mostly cloudy, highs around 80.